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  • #581
  • May 16, 2013 8:48am May 16, 2013 8:48am
Quoting traade
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=826HMLoiE_o 4:16
A fresh idea, thanks.


Perhaps one must find the weaknesses of the chart(,news,) - trade - broke r paradigm that the trader does not have, in order to exploit them regularly.
  • #582
  • May 16, 2013 9:19am May 16, 2013 9:19am
Quoting Ralome
{quote} I read that specific post carefully, that's why I think he didn't
Quoting CP:

""I couldn't stop laughing when I read this. (not mocking you, but agreeing with you)

I'm laughing because its what brings in the money for me. I say, "you either get it or you don't."

"when it gets more than 2 standard deviations from the mean, what are the chances of the next step being closer to the mean? (hint: it isn't 50%)."

OMG! This is my bread and butter. This is what I exploit again and again... and again. "" End of Quote

Ok if this is joke, then all his posts could be joke


  • #583
  • May 16, 2013 1:18pm May 16, 2013 1:18pm
Quoting ataata
{quote} Quoting CP: ""I couldn't stop laughing when I read this. (not mocking you, but agreeing with you) I'm laughing because its what brings in the money for me. I say, "you either get it or you don't." "when it gets more than 2 standard deviations from the mean, what are the chances of the next step being closer to the mean? (hint: it isn't 50%)." OMG! This is my bread and butter. This is what I exploit again and again... and again. "" End of Quote Ok if this is joke, then all his posts could be joke
I didn't say it was a joke. I just think that he just used the other guy's quote to "prove" his own point about trend following/price moving away from a reference point. He says he follows the trend. A trend is a move from point A to point B. But first price has to move long enough to be qualified as a tradable trend. For a big move, first we need an intermediate move, and for an intermediate move, we need a small move. So, when you have the small/intermediate move ("gets more than [X pips/percent] away from the [reference point]"), you get in (because probabilities favour you at that point = trends tend to continue). And stay in

I'm not implying that that's exactly how he trades, but I think it is a part of it.
Even if you fall on your face, you're still moving forward.
  • #584
  • May 16, 2013 1:19pm May 16, 2013 1:19pm
Quoting ataata
{quote} Quoting CP: ""I couldn't stop laughing when I read this. (not mocking you, but agreeing with you) I'm laughing because its what brings in the money for me. I say, "you either get it or you don't." "when it gets more than 2 standard deviations from the mean, what are the chances of the next step being closer to the mean? (hint: it isn't 50%)." OMG! This is my bread and butter. This is what I exploit again and again... and again. "" End of Quote Ok if this is joke, then all his posts could be joke

beyond 2 standard deviations there becomes an opportunity 3 becomes orgasmic, consider the slope and you are beyond the 50 % and above the spread,
  • #585
  • May 16, 2013 1:25pm May 16, 2013 1:25pm
Quoting Ralome
{quote} I didn't say it was a joke. I just think that he just used the other guy's quote to "prove" his own point about trend following/price moving away from a reference point. He says he follows the trend. A trend is a move from point A to point B. But first price has to move long enough to be qualified as a tradable trend. For a big move, first we need an intermediate move, and for an intermediate move, we need a small move. So, when you have the small/intermediate move ("gets more than [X pips/percent] away from the [reference point]"),...
i would say any number of pips move 5,6,10,100 all qualify as a trend, when suggested in this way one will be confused,whilst confused one will never understand what one should look for,most of the failings are not knowing what one is actually looking for
  • #586
  • May 16, 2013 11:15pm May 16, 2013 11:15pm
Quoting diceman555
{quote} i would say any number of pips move 5,6,10,100 all qualify as a trend, when suggested in this way one will be confused,whilst confused one will never understand what one should look for,most of the failings are not knowing what one is actually looking for

There is also a interesting pdf CP recomends in one of his posts in which there is interesting writing about trend, who make it, when doest it occur....
  • #587
  • May 17, 2013 3:02am May 17, 2013 3:02am
Quoting ataata
{quote} There is also a interesting pdf CP recomends in one of his posts in which there is interesting writing about trend, who make it, when doest it occur....
Which PDF? maybe I missed it or don't recall.

By the way: What is "the trend"?
  • #588
  • May 17, 2013 3:29am May 17, 2013 3:29am
Quoting emiliand
{quote} Which PDF? maybe I missed it or don't recall. By the way: What is "the trend"?

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=4641806#post4641806

Btw Emiliand anything new about your room?
  • #589
  • May 17, 2013 3:56am May 17, 2013 3:56am
There are couple crucial points to think about in this PDF:

- people are like animals... we have animals spirit.... masses are trend folovers

- there is meta-level which I think CP is using

- "The basic perception is that if a market’s price is going to make an exceptional move in one direction or another, it must first make a moderate move in that direction ( I remember CP wrote, he makes a lot ob pips after first test), leading to the conclusion that if an initiation can be made at that moderate level, the remaining portion of the trend can be followed for a significant period of time thereafter and liquidated at a profit. This scenario is not always expected to betrue, of course; but if it is true often enough, and to a significant degree enough, then it may lead to profitable trading in the long run." (do you remember mutli donchians and comments CP was writing about it)

..... Worth reading it!
  • #590
  • May 17, 2013 9:00am May 17, 2013 9:00am
Quoting ataata
"The basic perception is that if a market’s price is going to make an exceptional move in one direction or another, it must first make a moderate move in that direction
I think you are right, ataata. At the heart of CPs system, it is a breakout -- pullback system. CP uses volatility to tell whether a move is truly a breakout or a false move or just a fakeout move.

My guess is that he has done extensive number crunching so he knows the most probably results of any kinds of move. Not all moves pullback to the original level and he knows this too.

There is no way we are going to throw up 3 indis on our chart to be able to match what he does. But I believe he has shared enough -- and given us enough different ideas -- that we can be successful by trading with that mindset.
  • #591
  • May 17, 2013 9:26am May 17, 2013 9:26am
Quoting Magic Trader
{quote} I think you are right, ataata. At the heart of CPs system, it is a breakout -- pullback system. CP uses volatility to tell whether a move is truly a breakout or a false move or just a fakeout move. My guess is that he has done extensive number crunching so he knows the most probably results of any kinds of move. Not all moves pullback to the original level and he knows this too. There is no way we are going to throw up 3 indis on our chart to be able to match what he does. But I believe he has shared enough -- and given us enough different...
  • #592
  • May 17, 2013 9:42am May 17, 2013 9:42am
What is breakout? what is pullback? these words are meaningless without previous candles and patterns - generally summarized as history. what if someone does not refer to history? how does it look like trading only "now"? after each second, minute, hour everytime you have "now". not a second ago or an hour ago?
As Above, So Below
  • #593
  • May 17, 2013 11:18am May 17, 2013 11:18am
So...let's see the question of the century:

WHAT IS TREND?

  • #594
  • May 17, 2013 11:42am May 17, 2013 11:42am
Quoting emiliand
So...let's see the question of the century: WHAT IS TREND?
Move from point A to point B. It could be just 1 pip move.
  • #595
  • May 17, 2013 9:05pm May 17, 2013 9:05pm
Quoting ataata
{quote} Move from point A to point B. It could be just 1 pip move.
  • #596
  • May 18, 2013 6:54am May 18, 2013 6:54am
Quoting tashkent
What is breakout? what is pullback? these words are meaningless without previous candles and patterns - generally summarized as history. what if someone does not refer to history? how does it look like trading only "now"? after each second, minute, hour everytime you have "now". not a second ago or an hour ago?
If you want to call "now" a 1hour candle, I will show you 720 candles of 5seconds that cover this "now" concept of yours.

Time should be thought of as a tool we can use. It's not the basis of our trading but simply another tool.
  • #597
  • May 18, 2013 8:24am May 18, 2013 8:24am
Quoting Magic Trader
{quote} If you want to call "now" a 1hour candle, I will show you 720 candles of 5seconds that cover this "now" concept of yours. Time should be thought of as a tool we can use. It's not the basis of our trading but simply another tool.
i think you misunderstood what i meant. i did not mean one hour candle, one second, one day or a month candle. you are just finishing reading this sentence of mine and this is the "NOW", this is the moment i am talking about. Neither the first sentence nor the second is anymore the "NOW"

These should give you little insight of what i meant:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cy4ds0Q1RO4


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yyuSpzzYHqc


Take out the trash... the trash is anything keeps you from the only thing that matters - this moment; here and now.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iNSVgpFI4g0
As Above, So Below
  • #598
  • May 19, 2013 3:54am May 19, 2013 3:54am
Quoting tashkent
{quote} i think you misunderstood what i meant. i did not mean one hour candle, one second, one day or a month candle. you are just finishing reading this sentence of mine and this is the "NOW", this is the moment i am talking about. Neither the first sentence nor the second is anymore the "NOW" These should give you little insight of what i meant: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cy4ds0Q1RO4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yyuSpzzYHqc Take out the trash... the trash is anything keeps you from the only thing that matters...
So, tashkent, maybe I understood wrong the following affirmation I will make: you have understood what CP is talking about and trading this way now! TRUE or FALSE?
  • #599
  • May 19, 2013 4:05am May 19, 2013 4:05am
Another idea, which I don't know if I missed or not: Have anybody, ever, asked CP what is his biggest drawdown, or what is the biggest loss?
How many times he loses before he makes a win? (win %)

CP, if you are still following this thread, please let everyone know these things mentioned above, as this would not disclose your secret trading method.

Thanks.
  • #600
  • May 19, 2013 7:53am May 19, 2013 7:53am
Quoting emiliand
{quote} So, tashkent, maybe I understood wrong the following affirmation I will make: you have understood what CP is talking about and trading this way now! TRUE or FALSE?
The answer is: I do not know (unless CP can confirm). There must be more complex definition of the "NOW" but I have some confidence that I understood the basic of this concept.
As Above, So Below
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