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Trend Runner

  • #321
  • May 16, 2013 7:01am May 16, 2013 7:01am
Quoting PIPer
{quote} Hey Ilzalama, I can't see the reason for this stop loss move... can you please explain? Thanks.

this stop loss move is super agressive , on my charts you stop is below the supertrend line indicator , arent you just asking to get stopped out ,
the big move has happened i.e big 4 hour candle ...now pullback , I guess you are really betting price shouldnt penetrate the support line which becomes resistance

anyways lets hope we get a rotation , I also think ILZ is very comfortable from getting stopped out and getting back in , am I right ILZ?
  • #322
  • May 16, 2013 7:41am May 16, 2013 7:41am
Hi ,

Closed kiwi, at a loss,
I am going to wait
  • #323
  • May 16, 2013 7:49am May 16, 2013 7:49am
I have opened Kiwi again ,

stopped out of eurusd
  • #324
  • May 16, 2013 8:07am May 16, 2013 8:07am
Hi Ilz

wanted to advice on eurusdi got stopped but price closed , above the barry indicator resistance and below the supertrend , would you go back in or wait . and its a large green candle the last one
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur usd 16-05-2013 14-05-53.png Size: 36 KB
  • #325
  • May 16, 2013 8:15am May 16, 2013 8:15am
Quoting ashtrader
Hi Ilz wanted to advice on eurusdi got stopped but price closed , above the barry indicator resistance and below the supertrend , would you go back in or wait . and its a large green candle the last one {image}

ashtrader, you red my mind...great question.....
  • #326
  • May 16, 2013 3:19pm May 16, 2013 3:19pm
I am not 100% certain I should post this because it is not textbook money management...

I have come to learn that sometimes the market makes irrational moves against the trend that are inexplicable. Today in GBP$ was an example of an overall downtrend with a strong 100 pip move against the trend.

I was shorting at what turned out to be the low of the day. Price moves say 50 pips against my position... I look at the 200 MA and determine that there is little to no chance of price going that high today and since price is so far away from it, the trend is still down. Since I still feel strongly we are in a downtrend - short twice my original size at this point. But - to be on the safe side, I also place a buy stop above the next resistance level at 4x's original size.

Today price went thru resistance and now I am short 3 units and long 5 units. The trend is still down so the long entry will be scalped -- only looking for 20 pips to reduce my losses.

So price keeps going up - the scalp is taken and profits booked, but I still have 3 units short and price moving away from me.

What am I to do???

Stay calm and determine what the next resistance level might be... Today I determined it to be 5315 and put a short on for 5x's my original size. To be prepared for a completely parabolic push up I also place a buy order for 10x's original size.

Price hit the 5315 short but not the 5325 long. I now have an idea that the market has reached its high and its time to wait for some profit taking. It took a couple of hours but eventually price fell pretty hard and I closed out all trades with a tidy profit.

A few things:

1) You have to have conviction in the overall direction of the market to trade like this.
2) No stops are used.
3) You MUST have an account that allows hedging.
4) You must stay glued to your screen and remain absolutely focused.
5) I do NOT trade like this everyday - only when the market moves irrationally against me.

Some of you may ask what this has to do with the thread topic - well I was trying the threads method when i got caught on the wrong side of that push up. If things would have gone smoothly I would not have employed such tactics. If the thread owner feels this post innapropriate, I will gladly delete it.

Cheers!
  • #327
  • May 16, 2013 4:33pm May 16, 2013 4:33pm
Ilz already told us in the begining of this tread to use stop lost at 100 pip, and to use money management, so we only risk 2% in single trade.
That to anticipate the condition like this, when the trend got reversal, and market seem to against us.
  • #328
  • May 16, 2013 5:03pm May 16, 2013 5:03pm
Quoting Reinheart
Ilz already told us in the begining of this tread to use stop lost at 100 pip, and to use money management, so we only risk 2% in single trade. That to anticipate the condition like this, when the trend got reversal, and market seem to against us.
Yeah - I'm not really good at following rules. Plus as you start to figure this trading thing out you discover that no matter what method you use, you have to make it your own to really make it work. Personally, I will never take a 100 pip loss - my instincts won't allow it.
  • #329
  • May 16, 2013 6:03pm May 16, 2013 6:03pm
Trade Update (5AMPST Candle)

Short AUD/USD @1.01881 Current Stop 0.98551. +333.0 Secured

Long EUR/JPY @ 132.083. Current Stop @ 131.245

Short EUR/USD @ 1.29990. Current Stop @ 1.28922 +106.8 Secured

Long GBP/JPY @ 155.851. Stopped @ 155.901. + 5 Secured

Short GBP/USD @ 1.52022. Current Stop @ 1.52502

Long USD/CAD @1.01803. Current Stop @ 1.01481

USD/CHF - NOTHING - Long USD/CHF @ 0.96608.Stopped @ 0.96648. + 4 Realized

Long @ USD/JPY @ 102.444. Current Stop @ 101.934.

Gold - NOTHING

-ILZ
“Control, control, you must learn control!” - Yoda
  • #330
  • Edited 7:12pm May 16, 2013 6:25pm | Edited 7:12pm
Trade Update (1PM PST Candle)

Short AUD/USD @1.01881. Stopped 0.98551. +333.0 Realized

Long EUR/JPY @ 132.083. Current Stop @ 131.245

EUR/USD - NOTHING - Short EUR/USD @ 1.29990. Current Stop @ 1.28922 +106.8 Realized

GBP/JPY - NOTHING - Long GBP/JPY @ 155.851. Stopped @ 155.901. + 5 Realized

Short GBP/USD @ 1.52655. Current Stop @ 1.53246. Short GBP/USD @ 1.52022. Stopped @ 1.52502. - 48.0 Lost

USD/CAD - NOTHING - Long USD/CAD @1.01803. Stopped @ 1.01481. -32.2 Lost.

Long USD/CHF @ 0.96432. Current Stop @ 0.95769.

Long USD/JPY @ 102.322. Current Stop @ 101.817. Long Current @ USD/JPY @ 102.444. Stopped @ 101.934. -51.0 Lost

Gold - NOTHING

-ILZ
“Control, control, you must learn control!” - Yoda
  • #331
  • May 16, 2013 6:35pm May 16, 2013 6:35pm
Quoting ashtrader
{quote} this stop loss move is super agressive , on my charts you stop is below the supertrend line indicator , arent you just asking to get stopped out , the big move has happened i.e big 4 hour candle ...now pullback , I guess you are really betting price shouldnt penetrate the support line which becomes resistance anyways lets hope we get a rotation , I also think ILZ is very comfortable from getting stopped out and getting back in , am I right ILZ?
This thing was do for a retrace. I do not thing it will last to much longer. If it does I can always get back in,. Also with all the news coming out I wanted to protect as much as I could. Good thing because I had a small string of losers.

its all good.

-ILZ
“Control, control, you must learn control!” - Yoda
  • #332
  • May 16, 2013 6:36pm May 16, 2013 6:36pm
Quoting ashtrader
Hi Ilz wanted to advice on eurusdi got stopped but price closed , above the barry indicator resistance and below the supertrend , would you go back in or wait . and its a large green candle the last one {image}
No. I would wait for a candle to close in the direction I am looking for as well as all the other trade qualifiers.

-ILZ
“Control, control, you must learn control!” - Yoda
  • #333
  • May 16, 2013 6:38pm May 16, 2013 6:38pm
Quoting enochben
I am not 100% certain I should post this because it is not textbook money management... I have come to learn that sometimes the market makes irrational moves against the trend that are inexplicable. Today in GBP$ was an example of an overall downtrend with a strong 100 pip move against the trend. I was shorting at what turned out to be the low of the day. Price moves say 50 pips against my position... I look at the 200 MA and determine that there is little to no chance of price going that high today and since price is so far away from it, the...
Any chatter about different Money Management methods is fine with me. just be sure any changes you make are viable and do not just react because you may be taking a few losses.

Dont be part of the 95%!!!!

-ILZ
“Control, control, you must learn control!” - Yoda
  • #334
  • May 16, 2013 6:39pm May 16, 2013 6:39pm
Quoting Reinheart
Ilz already told us in the begining of this tread to use stop lost at 100 pip, and to use money management, so we only risk 2% in single trade. That to anticipate the condition like this, when the trend got reversal, and market seem to against us.
To be clear, I said this is WHAT I DO. You can do whatever you like. Risk more or less. Whatever you feel you can work with.

My suggestions is 2% max per trade.

-ILZ
“Control, control, you must learn control!” - Yoda
  • #335
  • May 16, 2013 6:41pm May 16, 2013 6:41pm
Quoting enochben
{quote} Yeah - I'm not really good at following rules. Plus as you start to figure this trading thing out you discover that no matter what method you use, you have to make it your own to really make it work. Personally, I will never take a 100 pip loss - my instincts won't allow it.
that is true. You must make anything you trade your own. You may not be good at following rules, but be sure to follow your own. Otherwise your in for a world of hurt.

My2cents.

-ILZ
“Control, control, you must learn control!” - Yoda
  • #336
  • May 16, 2013 6:58pm May 16, 2013 6:58pm
Quoting ilzalama
{quote} that is true. You must make anything you trade your own. You may not be good at following rules, but be sure to follow your own. Otherwise your in for a world of hurt. My2cents. -ILZ
aint that the truth!
  • #337
  • May 16, 2013 7:11pm May 16, 2013 7:11pm
Trade Update (5PM PST Candle)

AUD/USD - NOTHING

EUR/JPY - NOTHING - Long EUR/JPY @ 132.083. manual Close @ 131.591 -49.2 Lost

EUR/USD - NOTHING

GBP/JPY - NOTHING

Short GBP/USD @ 1.52655. Manual Close @ 1.52698. -4.3 lost

USD/CAD - NOTHING

Long USD/CHF @ 0.96432. Current Stop @ 0.95769.

Long USD/JPY @ 102.322. Current Stop @ 101.817.

Gold - NOTHING

-ILZ
“Control, control, you must learn control!” - Yoda
  • #338
  • May 16, 2013 7:45pm May 16, 2013 7:45pm
hey enochben,

I think we are in same position.. greedy... and unwilling to take a loss. i think i have funded more then 6 accounts and busted them all in less then 2 months because i was greedy. i open big trades and pray for the big win - which dont happen.

Now i am trying to follow Ilz rules because if u think about it... its better to earn 2-4% month rather then bust ur account and loose all ur money. with the 2-4% slowly after a few years... it will become alot .. so be patience and dont risk too much.

EDIT: ooo ya... i guess sometimes you just need to keep busting your account before you realise you need proper money management..
  • #339
  • May 16, 2013 7:55pm May 16, 2013 7:55pm
you got it there games130, and compounding wins!
  • #340
  • May 16, 2013 7:56pm May 16, 2013 7:56pm
Quoting games130
hey enochben, I think we are in same position.. greedy... and unwilling to take a loss. i think i have funded more then 6 accounts and busted them all in less then 2 months because i was greedy. i open big trades and pray for the big win - which dont happen. Now i am trying to follow Ilz rules because if u think about it... its better to earn 2-4% month rather then bust ur account and loose all ur money. with the 2-4% slowly after a few years... it will become alot .. so be patience and dont risk too much. EDIT: ooo ya... i guess sometimes...
“Control, control, you must learn control!” - Yoda
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