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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #5,921
  • May 15, 2013 9:15am May 15, 2013 9:15am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} are you still holding that short on EURGBP? it turns out to be a very good trade!
Hit SL, then re-enter @0.85 and close at wk pivot 0.844

I'm kinda lost on the market now... EU in particular. No idea which way it goes I don't analyze the fundamentals, so, just wait and see...
One interesting thing is JPY as you mentioned earlier. It might re-gain the value, but I'm still skeptical.
I guess I will be scalping (25-50pips) for a while (like I did on EURGBP)...

Shahab8, pls share your thought on the market.
Thank you very much in advance!
  • #5,922
  • May 15, 2013 9:26am May 15, 2013 9:26am
Quoting Forexgogo
{quote} Hit SL, then re-enter @0.85 and close at wk pivot 0.844 I'm kinda lost on the market now... EU in particular. No idea which way it goes I don't analyze the fundamentals, so, just wait and see... One interesting thing is JPY as you mentioned earlier. It might re-gain the value, but I'm still skeptical. I guess I will be scalping (25-50pips) for a while (like I did on EURGBP)... Shahab8, pls share your thought on the market. Thank you very much in advance!
nice trade! I'm long term bullish on USD, bearish on Gold and Oil. As for equities, I think it will be topping sometime soon (I've been wrong on this one though, burned my figures shorting S&P future). I think you draw your fibs bearish on EU , AU and NU. you can get good short entries on fibs and Rs when they rally.
  • #5,923
  • May 15, 2013 9:43am May 15, 2013 9:43am
Quoting smart pivots
{image} possible short setup in NZDUSD
trade closed here at 8223,
PA is suggesting heavy retrace. i will try to catch reverse on AUDUSD. breaking 1.0000 in Aussie was so easy and i think there will be nice upward move to fill this heavy psycho level and some more.
  • #5,924
  • May 15, 2013 9:52am May 15, 2013 9:52am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} I think you draw your fibs bearish on EU , AU and NU. you can get good short entries on fibs and Rs when they rally.
Thank you for your nice words and thoughts on the market!
AU seems to follow the last year's pattern (a decline in May).
  • #5,925
  • May 16, 2013 3:03am May 16, 2013 3:03am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} yea, that too! I'm placing trades on 4-5 pairs and posting charts on here at the same time! I'm trying to give whoever reading this some hints. that's all {image}
Thank you for everything that you do for us, that was meant to help not the other way, some kind of give back.

I'm still holding my S&P E-Mini, mini Dow, Nasdaq E -Mini, Nikkei E-Mini longs, and my Gold, CL Shorts, worth to mention that the Crude and after an early session heavy losses managed to get it back all and closed the day on the positive side forming a bullish pinbar rejecting Multiple support, however this bullish pinbar is in a downtrend so it could be a reversal bar or a continuation, confirmation is needed, we will wait and see.
I can see that bulls are defending this level heavily, this is the second pinbar that failed to close under this level in 4 days so its worth to mention.

NU @ multiple support, thinking of covering my shorts, waiting for the proper PA signal, my ACAD is heading to a multiple support level also thinking of covering my shorts but also waiting for PAS ( PA Signal ), AU also heading @ MSL ( Multiple support Level ) TFO ( Take profit order ) is waiting there, my EA ( EURAUD) is exactly @ Resistance, I'm Taking profit and closing all my longs after the formation of a Bearish pinbar or Bearish shooting star, reassessing the situation after today's close.

Thank you for your patience.

Regards,
B.R.
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #5,926
  • May 16, 2013 3:37am May 16, 2013 3:37am
Quoting Forexgogo
{quote} Hit SL, then re-enter @0.85 and close at wk pivot 0.844 I'm kinda lost on the market now... EU in particular. No idea which way it goes I don't analyze the fundamentals, so, just wait and see... One interesting thing is JPY as you mentioned earlier. It might re-gain the value, but I'm still skeptical. I guess I will be scalping (25-50pips) for a while (like I did on EURGBP)... Shahab8, pls share your thought on the market. Thank you very much in advance!
EG is carving a big Desending triangle, PA being rejected Exactly from the ceiling of the Triangle or the Desending Trendline which was an excellent level to place a sell limit order, and which i did and targeting the floor of the Triangle.

I will be reassessing the situation later depending on the PA Signal on the floor level or support, my personal opinion is that this Triangle is @ + 80 % of his projection which making it Very Vulnerable to breakdown, i will be looking for volume surge confirmation with all the stop losses triggered and new sellers rejoin the down trend after the breakout confirmation.

I posted my Analysis of the EU Yesterday and still holding it.

Hope it helps, Regards.
B.R.
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #5,927
  • May 16, 2013 4:26am May 16, 2013 4:26am
Quoting bassramy
{quote} EG is carving a big Desending triangle, PA being rejected Exactly from the ceiling of the Triangle or the Desending Trendline which was an excellent level to place a sell limit order, and which i did and targeting the floor of the Triangle. I will be reassessing the situation later depending on the PA Signal on the floor level or support, my personal opinion is that this Triangle is @ + 80 % of his projection which making it Very Vulnerable to breakdown, i will be looking for volume surge confirmation with all the stop losses triggered...
Valid readings on EG and EU.
Since I don't trade IN/THROUGH the congestion (either a "box" or a "triangle"), I stay away from EG and EU for a while, or do some scalping at the "edge" (S or R level).

I'm trading GU now
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  • #5,928
  • May 16, 2013 6:33am May 16, 2013 6:33am
Something that i posted on another thread regarding UCAD.
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #5,929
  • May 16, 2013 6:44am May 16, 2013 6:44am
Quoting bassramy
Something that i posted on another thread regarding UCAD.
UCAD, I'm waiting to see if the DTL is valid @1.025.
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  • #5,930
  • May 16, 2013 2:37pm May 16, 2013 2:37pm
Looks like a pin bar reversal.......perhaps Gold may go back to test 50% Fib......14 something.
Attached Image
  • #5,931
  • May 17, 2013 10:59am May 17, 2013 10:59am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} UCAD: trade the plan. added another long at fib retracement/ weekly pivot. {image}

UCAD: the long trade went well.
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  • #5,932
  • May 17, 2013 11:05am May 17, 2013 11:05am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} UCAD: the long trade went well. {image}
  • #5,933
  • May 17, 2013 11:08am May 17, 2013 11:08am
Quoting jackm1
Looks like a pin bar reversal.......perhaps Gold may go back to test 50% Fib......14 something. {image}
not good at all
1) A counter trend pinbar is a very bad setup, unless you get it at a previous low/high. (e.g. if you get a pinbar at 1322, you may consider a long)
2) bad drawing of the fibs. you better draw your fibs in line with the trend. if you don't know what the trend is look at your RSI, if its below 50 is down above 50 is up. if the goes back and forth around 50, its probably a range market. ( an easy way is to use MA crossovers, not for entries, but to identify the trend)
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  • #5,934
  • May 17, 2013 11:15am May 17, 2013 11:15am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} not good at all 1) A counter trend pinbar is a very bad setup, unless you get it at a previous low/high. (e.g. if you get a pinbar at 1322, you may consider a long) 2) bad drawing of the fibs. you better draw your fibs in line with the trend. if you don't know what the trend is look at your RSI, if its below 50 is down above 50 is up. if the goes back and forth around 50, its probably a range market. ( an easy way is to use MA crossovers, not for entries, but to identify the trend) {image}
This is how I trade a pin bar (may not be a good example, thou...)
Note that I put a stop order at the bottom of the pin bar...

Have a great weekend!
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  • #5,935
  • May 17, 2013 11:25am May 17, 2013 11:25am
Quoting Forexgogo
{quote} This is how I trade a pin bar (may not be a good example, thou...) Note that I put a stop order at the bottom of the pin bar... Have a great weekend! {image}
That trade may workout. but I still won't trade that.

Here I provide two examples of pinbars:
1) EURGBP: a counter trend pinbar at previous high+ RIS divergence
2) EU: a trend following pinbar at previous S turns R and fib 23
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #5,936
  • May 17, 2013 8:08pm May 17, 2013 8:08pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} not good at all 1) A counter trend pinbar is a very bad setup, unless you get it at a previous low/high. (e.g. if you get a pinbar at 1322, you may consider a long) 2) bad drawing of the fibs. you better draw your fibs in line with the trend. if you don't know what the trend is look at your RSI, if its below 50 is down above 50 is up. if the goes back and forth around 50, its probably a range market. ( an easy way is to use MA crossovers, not for entries, but to identify the trend) {image}
Thanks for the tips Shahab8b. I did not take the GC short and now all cash going into the weekend.
  • #5,937
  • May 18, 2013 9:58am May 18, 2013 9:58am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} That trade may workout. but I still won't trade that. Here I provide two examples of pinbars: 1) EURGBP: a counter trend pinbar at previous high+ RIS divergence 2) EU: a trend following pinbar at previous S turns R and fib 23 {image} {image}
Thanks Shahab .
Would you mind to share your reasons for NOT trading these set ups?

Regards
Mike
Failure, is a wonderful teacher!
  • #5,938
  • Edited 12:15pm May 18, 2013 10:15am | Edited 12:15pm
Quoting mike1349
{quote} Thanks Shahab . Would you mind to share your reasons for NOT trading these set ups? Regards Mike
My guess is, shahab8 is looking at a daily chart. The price just broke the down TL. It may come down to the line and bounce up.

In any case, if the stop order gets on, I will be very cautious when the price hits 1.025 and the DTL. I will move the SL to BE once it hits 1.025.

Hope it helps.
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  • #5,939
  • May 19, 2013 2:33pm May 19, 2013 2:33pm
Quoting Forexgogo
{quote} My guess is, shahab8 is looking at a daily chart. The price just broke the down TL. It may come down to the line and bounce up. In any case, if the stop order gets on, I will be very cautious when the price hits 1.025 and the DTL. I will move the SL to BE once it hits 1.025. Hope it helps. {image}
My bad! The chart is missing Jan-April! Sorry that I pulled out the wrong chart I apologize for the mistake and retract the post above.
  • #5,940
  • May 19, 2013 3:31pm May 19, 2013 3:31pm
Quoting Forexgogo
{quote} My bad! The chart is missing Jan-April! Sorry that I pulled out the wrong chart I apologize for the mistake and retract the post above.
No Problem......I guess I got what you mean ....Uptrend TL is broken so we should get some retrace to broken TL which is CT trade ....
I hope Shahab Clarify it...
Failure, is a wonderful teacher!
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