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Trade Idea for 17th April – Short Gold

There are two fundamental reasons for gold’s fall. The first one is the global deflationary processes. Despite the record-low interest rates and monetary policy measures taken by the central banks of the USA, Japan and many Eurozone countries, economic activity remains weak due to reduced consumption. The second reason is the decision made by the Chicago Mercantile Еxchange to increase the requirements for trading gold, silver and CFDs on other precious metals, which went into effect yesterday.

In the short term, the price of the precious metal is likely to make a slight upward movement, which will be absolutely corrective in its nature. As for the mid-term, it remains bearish because of the global economy, which is under deflationary pressure. Thus gold is losing ground because of its status as safe haven against inflation.

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Trade of the Day for April 18th – USD/CHF: One Thing Leads to Another

from Raghee Horner

The 240-minute USD/CHF has formed an interesting pattern off a trio of downtrend lines. The 240-minute time frame is in a “four to six o’clock” downtrend and it’s this downtrend that gives these lines validity as a channel down or falling wedge. It’s not enough to simply have the pattern, ideally, it should form within the correct market trend. In this case it has. The pattern however is triggering a reversal of the 240-minute downtrend so it this a valid reversal buy or is the momentum higher going to trigger sell stops?

To answer this question I’ll look to the daily chart first in order to get clarity in the dominant psychology of the USD/CHF. I call this the Directional Bias and the 34EMA and GRaB candles reveal that the pair is in a very fresh downtrend.

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Trade Idea for April 19th, 2013 – Short AUD/JPY

Idea From Todd Gordon

With the on-going G20 meeting in Washington, much attention has been focused on the global community’s acceptance of Japan’s outright currency devaluation efforts. Leading up to this meeting markets were on-hold to sell Yen pending the outcome of the meeting. Markets were concerned that Japanese efforts would be met with resistance and the meeting would have a contentious tone. But, the result has been positive and G20 leaders are tolerant of Japanese efforts provided Yen devaluation was not focused against a single currency. So, green light to resume selling Yen? Not so fast.

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Trade of the Day for May 10th – Trading the USD/JPY Breakout

Idea From Michael McCarthy

Much better than expected jobless numbers in the US are flowing through to markets. Overnight, comments from Philadelphia US Fed President Plosser that he’d like to see QE3 curtailed as early as the June meeting lit a fire under the USD.

The Dollar Index reversed recent weakness, putting on a big figure to push towards 83. If the Dollar Index breaks through the 2013 high at 83.50 chartists may see room for significant gains. However, there is no need to wait for USD/JPY – it’s already broken out.

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Is now the time to be short GBPUSD?

By Brenda Kelly of IG Group London

The breakdown of the long term uptrend from the early 2009 lows in February of this year, nevertheless suggests that further downside might be inevitable for the pound. The breach of the narrowing range at the 1.5660 area is pivotal and is the key resistance to any real GBP strength, barring a complete and utter catastrophe in the Eurozone.

Over the past 2 days, this bullish channel has given way and price action has declined further and should the lows of 2012 at 1.5236 fail to hold the current trend looks set to target the 23.6% Fib. retracement around the 1.52 level.

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Trade of the Day for May 30th, 2013 – Long USD/CHF
By Raghee Horner


The USD/CHF uptrend is still fresh in that it is not established and the extent to which the 34EMA Wave will be respected is still unknown. That means that today’s pullback which currently had a daily pip movement range of 123 pips is on the very high end of historical price movement.
http://fncdn.marcwaringventur.netdna...2.49.30-PM.png
This is the second day of such a dramatic move lower when considering that yesterday the pip range was 190 pips. Certainly the U.S. dollar’s weakness is mainly the fuel for the move lower – interesting also then is the the fact that the dollar is pulling back sharply today through key, near-term support that was at 83.50. For the USD/CHF’s uptrend to continue, the dollar will have to stabilize so the question will be where? For now the U.S> Dollar Index is finding support above 83.00 and the 50DMA. This bodes well for USD/CHF bulls.
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Trade of the Day for Friday 31 May – AUD: USD Divergence Setup
By Ric Spooner of CMC Markets


The divergence strategy I’ll outline is based on the RSI. To be consistent with momentum on the longer term chart I would only enter a divergence buy set up based on the daily chart if the Weekly RSI is either trending up or oversold.
Often the best buy set ups of all can be when the Weekly RSI has just started to trend up out of the oversold zone.
Using these rules, the RSI on the weekly Aussie chart gives us a green light for a possible buy set up in the daily chart at the moment. It’s down in the oversold zone below 30%. By the time the setup triggers it’s also likely to have started trending up out of this zone.



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ForexNews.com Trade of the Day for June 3rd, 2013 – Long USD/JPY
By Ed Ponsi of EdPonsi.com


Long Yen on Tapering Trade
On Friday, IMF Deputy Director David Lipton referred to the yen as moderately undervalued; this represents a major change. In the recent past, IMF officials repeatedly said the yen was moderately overvalued.
The IMF doesn’t have the power to dictate policy to Japan, but Japan does care deeply about international support for its policies. Recent yen jawboning was likely an unsuccessful attempt to head off comments of this nature. I believe this could mark a major turning point in the yen trade.
For full trade idea with stop and limit level go here.

Top Trade Idea for June 4th, 2013 – Long USD/JPY
By Todd Gordon Of TradeAnalysis.com
The world’s attention has been focused on the massive top that’s been forming in Japanese equities. Lower Japanese stocks have impacted western equities, commodities, and most certainly the FX markets with an exclamation market next to the Japanese yen. But, before we get too carried away with this supposed top in the Nikkei, we must remember to trade what we see, and not what we think.
http://fncdn.marcwaringventur.netdna...0413Nikkei.png
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Top Trade Idea for June 11th, 2013 – USD/JPY "It's A Tough Call"
By Brenda Kelly of IG Markets

We’re all very aware of the normally undeniable effects of gravity: ‘what goes up must come down’; ‘all good things come to an end’ and so forth. The correction in the USDJPY trade like most corrections, was quick and unnerving, and for many came as a surprise. Topping out at 103.75 towards the end of last month, the yen had weakened by 30% since mid-November owing to both anticipation and confirmation of aggressive monetary policy from the Bank of Japan.
A move of such excess cannot be without a correction and we are now entering the fourth week where the yen has gained against the dollar.
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Top Trade Idea for September 18th, 2013 – USD/JPY

by Kathleen Brooks of FOREX.com

It’s finally upon us, in a few short hours the FOMC meeting will conclude and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will put us all out of our misery and let us know if it will indeed end up being Sep-taper. Whenever you talk about changes to US monetary policy it’s always worth keeping a close eye on USDJPY as this cross has a close relationship with US Treasury yields.

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Top Trade Idea for September 19th, 2013 – EUR/JPY

By Raghee Horner of IBFX

Lack a Directional Bias? No problem! Look for those new 52-week highs.

For today’s set up, it will be important to balance a longer-term approach that will develop on some shorter-term price action. The EUR/JPY has pushed higher to a new 52-week high on the weaker U.S. dollar and all-times highs in the Dow which has weakened the yen in this risk ON environment that the Fed re-awakened by passing on a September taper.



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Top Trade Idea for September 20th, 2013 – USD/SGD

By Michael McCarthy of CMC Markets

The USD is currently buoyed by the “sugar hit” of the surprise of unreduced stimulus. With another FOMC meeting coming up, at some stage markets are likely to start fretting about tapering again – and the USD should strengthen.

One of the difficulties is trading this theme is the fact so many other central banks are holding rates low or pumping their own currencies into the global financial system.

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Top Trade Idea for September 23rd, 2013 – $EURUSD

By Ed Ponsi of Barchetta Capital Management LLC

This morning, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said that interest rates would remain at current or lower levels for an extended period of time. The euro initially climbed on this news, as traders chose to view the extended period of low interest rates as a ‘glass half-full’ scenario. Then, the currency began to fade.



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Top Trade Idea For September 24th, 2013 - Crude Oil

By Gregor Horvat of EW-Forecast.com

Crude oil has been in strong uptrend since mid- April 2013 when prices bounced significantly from 85.60 level. On a daily chart below of crude oil we can see a rising trend-line and higher highs and higher lows of the last few months which is definition of an uptrend. That’s very important evidence to investors and traders who want to stay with a trend and look for potential buying opportunities.



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Top Trade Idea For September 25th, 2013 – NZD/USD

By Eric Viloria of FOREX.com

NZDUSD has been supported by hawkish rhetoric from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and a delay in Fed tapering. However recent fundamental and technical developments have weighed on the pair suggest the potential for a continued correction lower.



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Top Trade Idea for September 27th, 2013 – EUR/USD

By Ric Spooner of CMC Markets

EUR: USD had been drifting since the Fed meeting in what’s looking increasingly like a channel formation.
The channel is downward sloping making it look like a potential “Flag” style pattern. The support along the bottom of the flag is not yet perfectly formed.

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Top Trade Idea for October 1st, 2013 – EUR/USD

By Brenda Kelly of IG Group London

Markets are perhaps jaded or immune to global political upheavals. This became clear when the potential for fresh Italian elections had an altogether muted effect both in the FX and bond markets.If anything, the sell- off was largely been confined to the Italian bourses.

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Top Trade Idea for October 3rd, 2013 – NZD/JPY

By Raghee Horner of InterbankFX

Wheeler Supports Kiwi: NZD/JPY

The NZD/JPY has yet again visited its swing buy zone and this time it’s with a openly hawkish RBNZ behind it. With yesterday’s 128 pip range, the pair is still trading within its average daily range.




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Top Trade Idea For October 7th, 2013 – AUD/USD

By Forex News

Looking to short the audusd pair based on this possible flat pattern on the hourly chart and the reason for that is related to the 61.8% retracement level that has already been touched.
Any flat comes with a 3-3-5 structure but the key stays with the b wave. It is mandatory for the b wave to retrace above 61.8% when compared with the previous move and this condition is satisfied with the recent highs established.

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