Third Screen Strategy - Dr. Alexander Elder | Page 33 | Forex Factory

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Third Screen Strategy - Dr. Alexander Elder

  • #641
  • May 11, 2013 4:42pm May 11, 2013 4:42pm
Quoting spyderman
HP, Nice thread. Love the longer term swing strategies. I've played with some with a measure of success but always have trouble with the exits. I'll definitely take your fixed TP for a spin and see how it goes. Keep up the good work and happy trading.
Just follow the rules and parameters for each particular pair and you should do great!

If you have any questions make sure you read the entire thread, there are lots of great examples and thorough explanations throughout the entire thread.
  • #642
  • May 11, 2013 11:41pm May 11, 2013 11:41pm
Jay, I worked for many years as a Learning Specialist for adults. In that time, I came to understand that each person's path to mastering any skill is unique to them. Send me a Private Message if you want me to share with you, some actionable, sequential tips on when (and how) you can make the best use of forums, books - as well as the Market charts. Once I know your personal learning style, then, I'll be able to recommend your next steps on your path to consistent trading profitability. And, all it will take is a short, interactive Skype conversation (15 minutes).
Mind Power Magnetizes Market Profits!
  • #643
  • May 12, 2013 1:45pm May 12, 2013 1:45pm
Hi all.Just read the thread and i have to say that the strategy seems very good.It can and it does thrive in tis simplicity.Congrats 100pips
I ve also read the other thread you are currently posting in (20 and 50 ema) and its pretty much the same strategy just more automated right?
What are your thoughts and directional bias for the upcoming week?
These are my thoughts:
AUDJPY,NZDJPY,CADJPY and GBPJPY UP
EURUSD and AUDNZD DOWN
AUDUSD,EURAUD,EURCAD,GBPAUD,GBPUSD and NZDUSD FLAT
  • #644
  • May 12, 2013 4:33pm May 12, 2013 4:33pm
Weekly, Daily, Open Position, & Overall Bias For Our Most Frequently Traded Pairs

AUD/JPY:
Weekly - Up
Daily - Down
Open Positions - Up
Overall - Up

CAD/JPY:
Weekly - Up
Daily - Up
Open Positions - Up
Overall - Up

NZD/JPY:
Weekly - Up
Daily - Down
Open Positions - Up
Overall - Up

GBP/AUD:
Weekly - Up
Daily - Up
Open Positions - Up
Overall - Up

EUR/AUD:
Weekly - Up
Daily - Up
Open Positions - Up
Overall - Up

EUR/CAD:
Weekly - Down
Daily - Down
Open Positions - Flat
Overall - Flat

EUR/USD:
Weekly - Down
Daily - Down
Open Positions - Down
Overall - Down

AUD/NZD:
Weekly - Down
Daily - Up
Open Positions - Down
Overall - Down

GBP/USD:
Weekly - Down
Daily - Down
Open Positions - Up
Overall - Down

NZD/USD:
Weekly - Down
Daily - Down
Open Positions - Down
Overall - Down

AUD/USD:
Weekly - Down
Daily - Down
Open Positions - Down
Overall - Down
  • #645
  • Edited 5:02pm May 13, 2013 4:48pm | Edited 5:02pm
Summary for you to Review

thanks to 100pips for this system, I read thru your post, and I read <trading 4 a living> many yrs ago and never thought it can really works.

I still have a few questions that I'm a little surprised that I found no answer so far. Therefore, I try to summarize your system and please correct me, and critisize me so that this may serve as a good summary post for future readers.

Summary:

1. this is literally a "bi-sreen" method as there are mainly two timeframes to check. Daily MACD 12,24,9 and H1 W% 14.

2. if MACD's signal line is above main line, it will be taken as "bullish"; if MACD's signal line is below main line, it will be taken as "bearish". I didn't see the other criteria like slope of line or change of the distance will also support or deny the bullish/bearish decision above.

3. if W% in H1 timeframe drops below 20 with MACD bullish, a buy will be made; if W% in H1 timeframe rises above 80 with MACD bearish, a sell will be made ---- on the last condition 4.

4. price action and S/R do not significantly contradict to the MACD and W%. (I didn't see you often contradict MACD and W% using PASR)

about SL/TP, it is generally a ratio close to 2:3 or 1:2. (e.g. 250 sl, 350 tp)

about trading frequency(this is one of my major questions) , as long as an entry signal is valid, a 2(?) hours minimum interval is applied?

******* End of My Summary ********

Please review and grade, thanks.

If most of my guessing summary is right, this is a trading system that may be easily managed.

in fact, I am very curious what "discretionary" decisions you made when you did your backtesting. Your backtesting results are amazing, but I am not sure if you got it mainly by simply using MACD on D1, and W% on H1.
  • #646
  • May 13, 2013 5:35pm May 13, 2013 5:35pm
Quoting charvo
Summary for you to Review thanks to 100pips for this system, I read thru your post, and I read <trading 4 a living> many yrs ago and never thought it can really works. I still have a few questions that I'm a little surprised that I found no answer so far. Therefore, I try to summarize your system and please correct me, and critisize me so that this may serve as a good summary post for future readers. Summary: 1. this is literally a "bi-sreen" method as there are mainly two timeframes to check. Daily MACD 12,24,9 and H1 W% 14. 2. if MACD's...

Charvo,

1) You're right, this is technically a "bi-screen" method which is why I say "I use a part of the Third Screen Strategy..." however, I do manually try to take the weekly trend into consideration.

2) I don't consider any other criteria in regards to the MACD. Blue Bar = Buy and Red Bar = Sell.

3) Correct. Once price hits over bought or over sold area we can look to enter new position.

4) Manual intervention using Price Action @ Support / Resistance does not happen very often but IF I am do anticipate a trend reversal I could manually close out current opened positions. However, this rarely happens as I often times wait for SL or TP targets to be reached before reassessing each particular pair. SL and TP for most pairs are 260 SL and 320 TP. Other pairs I use a 160 SL and 280 TP. So risk:reward ratio is typically anywhere from 1.2 - 1.6. If you want a better risk:reward ratio then you can adjust SL and TP parameters to your own liking.

5) Frequency of trading and opening up new positions. This is arguably one of the harder parts to determine and calculate as it all depends on a trader's preference. I often times like to open up one position, if price moves against me by 10-50 pips I open up another one. Then wait until trend moves in my favor OR until SL targets are hit. Assuming trend moves in my favor I like to wait for current open positions to be in profit by at least 50-100 pips before looking to add any more new positions. Obviously I will only add new positions if criteria is met.

You have most of it down as this is a simple system to understand. The biggest problem I see with most traders is they try to complicate things. The old KISS (keep it simple stupid) formula tends to work the best as far as I can tell...

The results you see in this thread are NOT "back testing" results. These were forward tests and all trades you see actually happened in real time!
  • #647
  • May 13, 2013 8:51pm May 13, 2013 8:51pm
thanks a lot, 100Pips.

One thing I still need to consult you is that I thought your MACD reading is on the signal line vs main line. but now you said blue bar = buy. however, sometimes in very oversold situation, for example, the market reverse, and MACD bars are still negative, but the signal line has already crossed over the main line. what is the decision here?

i manually backtest your method. i found that an interval 7 or 8 hours to 12 hours produced very good results. I got the 8~12 interval from your other thread D1 20/50. usually, the DD is low, and the different entries might have entry price with 100 pips difference. the profit is indeed astounding (but i did sometime let a small portion run for weeks).

Quoting 100PipsADay
{quote} 2) I don't consider any other criteria in regards to the MACD. Blue Bar = Buy and Red Bar = Sell.


5) Frequency of trading and opening up new positions. This is arguably one of the harder parts to determine and calculate as it all depends on a trader's preference. I often times like to open up one position, if price moves against me by 10-50 pips I open up another one. Then wait until trend moves in my favor OR until SL targets are hit. Assuming trend moves in my favor I like to wait for current open positions to be in profit by at least...
  • #648
  • May 13, 2013 9:00pm May 13, 2013 9:00pm
Quoting charvo
thanks a lot, 100Pips. One thing I still need to consult you is that I thought your MACD reading is on the signal line vs main line. but now you said blue bar = buy. however, sometimes in very oversold situation, for example, the market reverse, and MACD bars are still negative, but the signal line has already crossed over the main line. what is the decision here? i manually backtest your method. i found that an interval 7 or 8 hours to 12 hours produced very good results. I got the 8~12 interval from your other thread D1 20/50. usually, the DD...
MACD Signal Line OR Bars, doesn't really matter as we are trading off of the Daily charts. One way might be earlier by the other by a day or so at the most, but that doesn't really make any difference in the long run. We can be more flexible with our entry points trading from the D1 chart...

In "very over sold" conditions it is probably due to the MACD being in a down trend for weeks before it hits that point, therefore, we more than likely already made our money on the way down and have closed out our short positions in profit. Don't wait for over sold conditions to re-open more short positions. Instead, be patient for MACD to move to the upside and start building long positions. *Once I have closed out a set of trades in profit I normally like to wait a few days before opening up new trades in either direction, nothing wrong with not being in a trade.

I figured you had come across my other thread but do not confuse this with the other strategy, they are pretty similar but I am still testing the other strategy and it is not tried and proven like this particular strategy. I would stick with this system for the time being if you are trading real money...

Letting a position run for weeks is completely normal for this type of swing strategy as we are not scalpers or day traders.
  • #649
  • May 13, 2013 9:19pm May 13, 2013 9:19pm
Let me give you a recent example with EUR/AUD.

April 2, 2013 the MACD moving average crossed over the slower MACD moving average on the D1 chart giving us a good buy signal. A day before, April 1, the first "Blue Bar" appeared on the D1 MACD giving us the same buy signal. Either way we got the go ahead to start buying EUR/AUD.

Please go over the chart thoroughly for most recent trade examples.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUD.png Size: 167 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUD_H1.png Size: 174 KB
  • #650
  • May 14, 2013 10:38am May 14, 2013 10:38am
thank you, great illustration and clarification!
Quoting 100PipsADay
Please go over the chart thoroughly for most recent trade examples. {image} {image}
  • #651
  • May 15, 2013 6:01am May 15, 2013 6:01am
thank you 100 pips best wishes for u and family
u put D20&50 ema EA in its thread plz put third screen strategy EA in this thread
regards
  • #652
  • May 16, 2013 12:24am May 16, 2013 12:24am
Hi 100PipsADay

Thank you for your work and help.I like the Third Screen Stratery and also the D1 20 EMA & EMA50 Stratery.They are also very powerfull , and i got some pips after trading some weeks.Maybe we can combine D1 MACD with D1 20 EMA & EMA50. When the PA closed above D1 20 EMA & EMA50 and D1 MACD is also bullish then we wait until the H1 WR% is Over Sold and get some long positions. What do you think?Maybe we can test it.

Best Regards
Fishcoo
  • #653
  • May 16, 2013 12:39am May 16, 2013 12:39am
A good short on Eurusd or other EUR corss pairs.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #654
  • May 16, 2013 1:10am May 16, 2013 1:10am
Quoting Fishcoo
Hi 100PipsADay Thank you for your work and help.I like the Third Screen Stratery and also the D1 20 EMA & EMA50 Stratery.They are also very powerfull , and i got some pips after trading some weeks.Maybe we can combine D1 MACD with D1 20 EMA & EMA50. When the PA closed above D1 20 EMA & EMA50 and D1 MACD is also bullish then we wait until the H1 WR% is Over Sold and get some long positions. What do you think?Maybe we can test it. Best Regards Fishcoo
Fishcoo!

It is funny that you mentioned that! I have been thinking about that particular strategy for the past few days! I will talk with my friend about possibly coding this particular EA in the next few weeks. I'm wrapping things up with my new business venture and will have a lot more free time by the end of next week so I'm looking forward to getting more involved here in the forums.

I think using both EMAs as well as MACD on the D1 chart would give us very solid and reliable direction in regards to the overall trend.

You know what they say, great minds think alike!
  • #655
  • May 16, 2013 1:12am May 16, 2013 1:12am
Quoting Fishcoo
A good short on Eurusd or other EUR corss pairs. {image} {image}
I'm with you on this one, definitely a good time to get short on EUR/USD.

Also, there should still be some more downward movement with GBP/USD, AUD/USD, and NZD/USD. My bias is still long though for EUR/AUD, GBP/AUD, EUR/NZD, and GBP/NZD.

I'll keep riding current trends until possible trend reversal. Hope you have been profitable and have been enjoying yourself FishCoo!
  • #656
  • May 18, 2013 9:46am May 18, 2013 9:46am
Hi 100pips

Really enjoying the threads, so posting this on both for feedback. Here s my first attempt on this technique just on backtesting - will start forward testing asap.

Summary of recent EU positions - Weekly move is down with a day cross below 20/50EMA - take short positions as the williams indicator hits Overbought region.

all comments welcome
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 100pips tri screen.gif Size: 96 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 100pip hour eu.png Size: 64 KB
"To live with Passion, it takes Courage and Grace to survive"
  • #657
  • May 19, 2013 11:09am May 19, 2013 11:09am
GBP/NZD (September 2011 - May 2013)

Total Trades: 110

Total Pips: 9,575

Win Rate: 60%

Profit Factor: 2.08

Max Positions: 6

Max Draw Down in Pips: 2,058
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPNZD_-_Accumulated_Pips.png Size: 54 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPNZD_-_Statistics.png Size: 84 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPNZD_-_Trades_(1).png Size: 151 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPNZD_-_Trades_(2).png Size: 149 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPNZD_-_Trades_(3).png Size: 149 KB
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Click to Enlarge Name: GBPNZD_-_Trades_(5).png Size: 146 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPNZD_-_Trades_(6).png Size: 151 KB
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Click to Enlarge Name: GBPNZD_-_Trades_(8).png Size: 67 KB
  • #658
  • May 19, 2013 11:29am May 19, 2013 11:29am
This next strategy differed a little in comparison to the other GBP/AUD strategy which utilizes a part of the Third Screen Strategy. Compare to actual results using our system: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...08#post6577208 Our system had a few less trades, a few more pips, and a little better Win Rate in terms of % but I'm showing how GBP/AUD can trend very nicely using different swing strategies. This particular test had a smaller draw down in terms of Pips. **Remember, these results and statistics were forward tested and actually happened in real-time.

GBP/AUD (September 2011 - May 2013)

Total Trades: 132

Total Pips: 14,314

Win Rate: 53.79%

Profit Factor: 3.22

Max Positions: 4

Max Draw Down in Pips: 834
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPAUD_-_Accumulated_Pips.png Size: 49 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPAUD_-_Statistics.png Size: 84 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPAUD_-_Trades_(1).png Size: 151 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPAUD_-_Trades_(2).png Size: 151 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPAUD_-_Trades_(3).png Size: 149 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPAUD_-_Trades_(4).png Size: 147 KB
  • #659
  • May 19, 2013 11:31am May 19, 2013 11:31am
GBP/AUD (September 2011 - May 2013 CONTINUED...)
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPAUD_-_Trades_(5).png Size: 149 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPAUD_-_Trades_(6).png Size: 150 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPAUD_-_Trades_(7).png Size: 144 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPAUD_-_Trades_(8).png Size: 148 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPAUD_-_Trades_(9).png Size: 127 KB
  • #660
  • May 19, 2013 11:51am May 19, 2013 11:51am
Another way to trade GBP/USD...

GBP/USD (April 2012 - May 2013)

Total Trades: 76

Total Pips: 8,243

Win Rate: 57.89%

Profit Factor: 3.75

Max Positions: 6

Max Draw Down in Pips: 1,120
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD_-_Accumulated_Pips.png Size: 52 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD_-_Statistics.png Size: 85 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD_-_Trades_(1).png Size: 138 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD_-_Trades_(2).png Size: 144 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD_-_Trades_(3).png Size: 144 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD_-_Trades_(4).png Size: 147 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD_-_Trades_(5).png Size: 147 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD_-_Trades_(6).png Size: 35 KB
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