How difficult is it to find an effective daytrading method? | Forex Factory

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How difficult is it to find an effective daytrading method?

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited 9:32am May 11, 2013 9:13am | Edited 9:32am
I am opening this thread to discuss the degree of difficulty in finding or developing a daytrading method with an edge strong enough to use.

After years of effort in the game, I am sure there are setups giving edges to traders to win.

In daytrading, the game is tougher that trading in higher timeframes. In daytrading, the trader has to keep watching the screen many hours a day. The spread cost is much higher in comparison, let alone other real time reaction and execution issues.

My ideal daytrading method is one which can offer a few setups on average within a 9-hours session when trading a few pairs, with positive expectency a few times higher than the spread/commission cost.

My experience is that after spending a long time to develop or adapting a method, it seems the market behaviour change a bit and the method is no longer so effective after a while. Also, the frequency of occurance of the setup is getting fewer.

I am interested in hearing from someone who have already been successful in using a daytrading method. I want to know how hard is it in their opinion. On one extreme, someone think they can easily find one on a forum, and as far as they train their discipline hard enough they can win with it. While on the other extreme, someone don't believe there exist a daytrading method in the world can win in the long run.

I know that psychology plays an important role in trading, but I am not talking about how to control emotion here in order to fully utilize a trading method. Here, I would like to discuss as if one had completely got rid of emotion.

Please don't drive this discussion to my trading ability or my own personal life. This is a objective and impersonal discussion. If you think this kind of discussion are meaningless or a waste of time, that is ok, and you don't need to participate here.
  • #2
  • May 11, 2013 9:39am May 11, 2013 9:39am
I think its a great idea for inviting effective day-trading method but I am afraid, there will be none...lets see, I would love to see someone posting ....
  • #3
  • May 11, 2013 10:22am May 11, 2013 10:22am
Quoting Red Herring
I think its a great idea for inviting effective day-trading method but I am afraid, there will be none...lets see, I would love to see someone posting ....
So, you mean you don't believe that there is a daytrading method can win in the long run?
  • #4
  • May 11, 2013 11:30am May 11, 2013 11:30am
Difficult because most strategies are missing key elements..

Simple truths are...

Markets are chaotic and thousands of random events leave repeating patterns, never exactly the same but recognisable for sure.

Markets are also scaleable and anything true on the lower timeframes will and must be true on higher, theyre all interconnected.

Any strategy that doesn't take into account these 2 basic rules will struggle.


If your strategy is, lets say selling daily highs and lows, then that is fine unless the move is coming from the higher timeframe, daily s/r will never stop a weekly or monthly trend.

If you can't find the origin of the move (the timeframe) then you can never apply the context.
tradewith60
  • #5
  • May 11, 2013 11:46am May 11, 2013 11:46am
Most methods show the thread starter winning but he miraculously avoids all the losing siganls. Realistically they aren't as good as claimed.

All you actually need is something to get you in when the move is starting ie inside bar, price action, ma crossover. They all work to some degree then you need a filter to avoid false signals like "buy above the 200 ma".

It really doesn't matter which.

If you want a few signals per session try the 1 hour.

The other piece I'm realizing is that if you are trying to catch the big moves you have to let a lot of smaller moves go to BE. Sometimes the smaller moves add up to more than that one big move when it finally happens.
Enter Signature
  • #6
  • May 11, 2013 12:01pm May 11, 2013 12:01pm
Itīs very difficult and only for some, very, very few is possible. (I can not)
Just ignore me. Thanks.
  • #7
  • May 11, 2013 1:24pm May 11, 2013 1:24pm
First lets be perfectly clear the markets have not changed price still goes up, down and sideways there may be fewer long term trends as of late but the markets works the same as it always has.

For me I have a few key patterns, not the ones that are batted about on this forum, I have found after years and years of trading and looking at charts. But trading is more than just finding some pretty reliable entries, which is what everyone focuses on, it is about knowing when to cut your trades short and get out with a small loss vs having your SL hit and when to let your trades run, it is about recognizing your own personal bias and flaws that prevent you from taking the good entries but let you take the crap ones or cause you to trade in a reckless manner. The only way you are going to learn this is by taking thousands of trades and spending thousands of hours in front of charts and not in forums on threads like this. Once you have a basic understanding of market structure and money management the market/time is the best teacher you are ever going to get.

My advice is to stop spending time on FF and start focusing on the charts with an open mind.
  • #8
  • May 11, 2013 2:40pm May 11, 2013 2:40pm
Most all systems work,

You take 3 indicators, one trending, one oscillating and one momentum, then train your brain to read it consistently, and always go the direction of the larger time frames, and when the tops or bottoms are in place don't trade.
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  • #9
  • May 11, 2013 2:42pm May 11, 2013 2:42pm
Quoting endroute
The only way you are going to learn this is by taking thousands of trades and spending thousands of hours in front of charts and not in forums on threads like this. Once you have a basic understanding of market structure and money management the market/time is the best teacher you are ever going to get. My advice is to stop spending time on FF and start focusing on the charts with an open mind.
What you have said is probably the best advice ever given in FF, a massive majority of words written in FF is total bull and without substance...

kk007, hi bud I think I pinged you earlier,
Regarding what you are asking. concentrate on the the pairs e/u g/u u/chf and u/j just like the big boys do and nothing else..
every day look what happens on the market opening in japan/England and usa regarding the hosts currency, see which way the bias is after 15 mins,30 mins and hour, this is trading at its simplest and the easiet and the way to win.
Obviously take into account news release every thing else is and act of god (if there is one)
money management, the aim is to keep your money and that does help big time.
Do not ask too many questions off the FF gurus as they are so focused on their own superiority and trading fantasy.
Regarding long term trading, do not be obsessed with long term. if you can make a few bucks today go for it. a few years ago I traded what can be considered as crazy and bought a house in north London, so I did not have to think about the future with trading.
The market does change though and how ever you trade it is worthwhile running tests to keep ahead,
be good and trade well
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #10
  • May 11, 2013 4:29pm May 11, 2013 4:29pm
I sometimes trade intraday but my most profitable trades are when I hold for 24-36hrs.

I find that if you go for 100 pips+ then the spread doesn't have too bad an effect.
wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoi! wo-yoy-yoy-yoy!
  • #11
  • May 11, 2013 8:16pm May 11, 2013 8:16pm
Trade bigger time frame's trend, stop loss is based on smaller time frame support and resistance, target based on trade management (scale in/ scale out and etc). Time frame relationship is not important, you will get more wrong entry and hit SL frequently, because trend is not yet ready to respect higher time frame, the importance point is if you discipline yourself to trade all the opportunity, the right trend will come.

I prefer 5 min time frame with daily time frame. Trade the direction of daily. All indicators set to sensitive parameter, to avoid lagging.

You know how is the chaotic of intraday price movement. So I not to mention this. To simplify my trading principle as below,
1. Discipline : Be patient for the right trend
2. Sensitive setting of indicator : The best leading of the lagging, the more correct signal. And setting is not really important.
3. Good RR : At least 2:1
4. Bigger time frame direction : Use chart pattern, trendline, horizontal line(support and resistance) and etc to spot direction, do not use indicators.

Thanks.
  • #12
  • May 11, 2013 9:45pm May 11, 2013 9:45pm
Quoting 60minuteman
Difficult because most strategies are missing key elements.. Simple truths are... Markets are chaotic and thousands of random events leave repeating patterns, never exactly the same but recognisable for sure. Markets are also scaleable and anything true on the lower timeframes will and must be true on higher, theyre all interconnected. Any strategy that doesn't take into account these 2 basic rules will struggle. If your strategy is, lets say selling daily highs and lows, then that is fine unless the move is coming from the higher timeframe, daily...
Is it difficult to include the "missing key elements" to create an effective daytrading method?
Quoting Don M
Most methods show the thread starter winning but he miraculously avoids all the losing siganls. Realistically they aren't as good as claimed. All you actually need is something to get you in when the move is starting ie inside bar, price action, ma crossover. They all work to some degree then you need a filter to avoid false signals like "buy above the 200 ma". It really doesn't matter which. If you want a few signals per session try the 1 hour. The other piece I'm realizing is that if you are trying to catch the big moves you have to let a lot...
Quoting pemully
I sometimes trade intraday but my most profitable trades are when I hold for 24-36hrs. I find that if you go for 100 pips+ then the spread doesn't have too bad an effect.
Quoting ~bull.bear~
Trade bigger time frame's trend, stop loss is based on smaller time frame support and resistance, target based on trade management (scale in/ scale out and etc). Time frame relationship is not important, you will get more wrong entry and hit SL frequently, because trend is not yet ready to respect higher time frame, the importance point is if you discipline yourself to trade all the opportunity, the right trend will come. I prefer 5 min time frame with daily time frame. Trade the direction of daily. All indicators set to sensitive parameter, to...
Thanks for your feedback, by the way, do you think it is difficult to find an effective daytrading method?
Ok, I will consider very difficult, if it requires thousands of hours. Difficult if it requires hundreds of hours.
  • #13
  • May 11, 2013 9:55pm May 11, 2013 9:55pm
Quoting endroute
First lets be perfectly clear the markets have not changed price still goes up, down and sideways there may be fewer long term trends as of late but the markets works the same as it always has.
One example of market change is volatility. The volatility drop in the past few years, this makes trading much more difficult. You may argue volatility will go up one day and such up and down comes as a cycle, but this cycle may take decades and could be longer than the lifespan of a human being.
Quoting endroute
The only way you are going to learn this is by taking thousands of trades and spending thousands of hours in front of charts
Personally, I agree with this very much.
Quoting endroute
My advice is to stop spending time on FF and start focusing on the charts with an open mind.
I don't think I spend too much time here, compared to my screen time. Often, I read FF while waiting for setups.
  • #14
  • May 11, 2013 10:01pm May 11, 2013 10:01pm
Quoting billytt
every day look what happens on the market opening in japan/England and usa regarding the hosts currency, see which way the bias is after 15 mins,30 mins and hour, this is trading at its simplest and the easiet and the way to win.
Thanks for your response and ping!
Do you mean you have found your method easily?
How long have you been consistent with your method (as you said the market keep changing)?
  • #15
  • May 11, 2013 10:12pm May 11, 2013 10:12pm
Quoting kk007
Thanks for your feedback, by the way, do you think it is difficult to find an effective daytrading method? Ok, I will consider very difficult, if it requires thousands of hours. Difficult if it requires hundreds of hours.
Yes, it is difficult if you have less information. IMO, oneself must fully understand all manners,indicators and cases in details. The purpose is to know the limitation and the benefits before to combine it and arrive a plan that works.

Example: Trade smaller time frame without respect the bigger time frame can have 50-50 chances to get into right trade. Reason is hit SL frequently, winning trade turn into losing trade, indicator is lagging, and uncertainty of volatility. You cannot do anything to turn losing trade into winning trade, for not to mention by using averaging down method with large capital.
  • #16
  • May 11, 2013 10:59pm May 11, 2013 10:59pm
Just keep in mind that "this is a real business, not a game, not a gambling and not a fucking shit". When you already have this in your mind, you will win no matter what method you use to trade. LOL am I right?
Dangdut is a music of my country
  • #17
  • May 11, 2013 11:05pm May 11, 2013 11:05pm
In my experience, below method is what I have think of that it could be useful and effective in daytrading. I would like to see any proof if someone could post the statistical data, or live result for the following scenario.

There is no way to earn if your trade is based on indicators in smaller time frame for not to respect/follow bigger time frame. So pattern trading become useful for this case.

Draw Fibonacci on yesterday from high to low, 0% at low and 100% at high. Those fibo level is the decision level for entry, SL and TP. Open both direction.
- No indicators.
- Capture price movement, it doesn't matter is ranging or trending.
- Like gambling style, hit the TP or SL.

Add: If you notice the chart for daily price movement, you would know it has some formation or pattern. So I would like to see the proof for this case.
  • #18
  • May 11, 2013 11:07pm May 11, 2013 11:07pm
if your using gut instinct in your trading aka "discretionary trading" you don't have a method. a method is a thing that could be replicated in a lab anytime anywere and that can also be taught. if a "discretionary trader" actually mentioned train your instincts when they give advice maybe we will have better traders in the future. that's certainly what they did.
  • #19
  • May 11, 2013 11:21pm May 11, 2013 11:21pm
Quoting NuNix
Just keep in mind that "this is a real business, not a game, not a gambling and not a fucking shit". When you already have this in your mind, you will win no matter what method you use to trade. LOL am I right?
An ironic response? or not?
  • #20
  • May 11, 2013 11:22pm May 11, 2013 11:22pm
Quoting deltatrade
if your using gut instinct in your trading aka "discretionary trading" you don't have a method. a method is a thing that could be replicated in a lab anytime anywere and that can also be taught. if a "discretionary trader" actually mentioned train your instincts when they give advice maybe we will have better traders in the future. that's certainly what they did.
So, is it difficult? How long the training takes? 10000 hours?
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