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vsa with Malcolm

  • #24,181
  • May 11, 2013 5:35am May 11, 2013 5:35am
Thanks for the post HG, you put some effort in there.

I find it frustrating that sometimes I just don`t see it, no matter how much I read or watch, when I do it`s probably more luck than judgement, have a look at this post I made back in december http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...53#post6294553 now look at Gold today. Did I call it right or was it luck, would I be willing to put money on that trade? I doubt it.

I have never doubted VSA, just my ability to understand it.




Gold today, red line was my post back in december.
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Seek not to change the world; seek only to change your mind about the world
  • #24,182
  • May 11, 2013 8:37am May 11, 2013 8:37am
Quoting Arkpip
{quote} Hello Joćo, just a quick question, if the COT data is for Futures, doesn't that mean that if the CAD Futures is going down the USDCAD pair is going up?? Thanks
Hi arkpip.
Actually what the COT data is showing us is that the cad futures will strengthen. We read this noting that the commercial are the most net long in near history. This positioning is telling that if they start to close their long positions(actually selling cad contracts), they will do it into a cad bull move.
Therefore, if cad will strength, USDCAD should fall.

The problem now is that the usd is also strengthening, what can limit a bit a potential USDCAD short move.

Hope it helps a bit!
  • #24,183
  • May 11, 2013 8:41am May 11, 2013 8:41am
Quoting ieatbanana
{quote} Joao, Did you wait for a test or such? I didn't see any clear entry point, imho. 1.) Reaction from news? [More volume than previous 2, to be expected] 2.) Average volume, but closed off low. [Buying pressure/Absorption?] 3.) Even more volume than the previous two. [Price is being pushed to one direction, but where? It is uncleared to me.] Edited: Forgot to attach chart. {image}
Spot on with this one!
Tom William, in the TG signals description, says that when see supply coming in, we have to pay attention to the next moves, if SOS or sow appears. In that case, the supply was bring tested and, more important, as you pointed out, the buyers was showing commitment, as per increasing volumes on down bars with strong closes.

I think I was to biased short with the cot data.

Thanks for the analysis, iet!

By the way, where are you from?
  • #24,184
  • May 11, 2013 8:50am May 11, 2013 8:50am
Quoting gez40
Thanks for the post HG, you put some effort in there. I find it frustrating that sometimes I just don`t see it, no matter how much I read or watch, when I do it`s probably more luck than judgement, have a look at this post I made back in december http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...53#post6294553 now look at Gold today. Did I call it right or was it luck, would I be willing to put money on that trade? I doubt it. I have never doubted VSA, just my ability to understand it. Gold today, red line was my post back in december....
It is a normal feeling that every traders has. We have to learn to rely on our ability to read the markets and know that vsa is the best tool out there. Then, build the confidence to put the trades.
Not simple but is the only way to make money in this business.
Wyckoff on one if his books says that tape reading is a study of forces and once we recognize each side is the strongest, the trader has to have the courage to go with it.

But I do understand what you say.
  • #24,185
  • May 11, 2013 9:49am May 11, 2013 9:49am
Quoting HiddenGap
We all have to find what works for us...
HiddenGap, What is high churn volume (in BetterVolume) , how to interpret it?

Thank you
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #24,186
  • May 11, 2013 10:01am May 11, 2013 10:01am
alright boys n girls ....been ages since i have been on the threadand glad to see you are all keeping it alive .

I have not day traded for ages . Work and my new wife have been keeping me busy . I moved to Dubai so i could trade more and instead find myself trading very little . However have been working the daily on usdcad and gu as they have been not bad , missed usdjpy and completely missed ES move but what to do

Hope you are all doing well and that the trading is going well ......
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #24,187
  • May 11, 2013 12:01pm May 11, 2013 12:01pm
Quoting malcolmb14
alright boys n girls ....been ages since i have been on the threadand glad to see you are all keeping it alive . I have not day traded for ages . Work and my new wife have been keeping me busy . I moved to Dubai so i could trade more and instead find myself trading very little . However have been working the daily on usdcad and gu as they have been not bad , missed usdjpy and completely missed ES move but what to do Hope you are all doing well and that the trading is going well ......
Nice to see you Mal.
Seek not to change the world; seek only to change your mind about the world
  • #24,188
  • May 11, 2013 3:11pm May 11, 2013 3:11pm
Quoting mima
{quote} HiddenGap, What is high churn volume (in BetterVolume) , how to interpret it? Thank you
Taken from http://emini-watch.com/free-stuff/volume-indicator/
"
High Volume Churn bars are identified by dividing volume by the bar's high to low range and then looking for the highest value in the last 20 bars (default setting). High Volume Churn bars indicate profit taking, new supply entering the market at tops or new demand entering the market at bottoms. The default setting is to color the volume histogram bars green and the price PaintBars blue.
High Volume Churn bars are typically seen at:

 

  1. The end of up trends
  2. The end of down trends, and
  3. Profit taking mid-trend.

When Volume Churn is high it indicates demand is being met by new supply at tops or supply is being met by new demand at bottoms – in effect, price is not able to advance as new supply or demand enters the market. Hence the bar's high to low range is low.
Maybe one of my customers (Neil F.) says it better than I can:

“I like to think of the High Volume Churn bars as ‘brakes’. It’s like hitting the brakes – usually, the car will stop shortly thereafter (1-2 points), and then turn around. At other times, however, the momentum is so great that all you get is a pause and then the market just continues going in the same direction! Unfortunately, sometimes it is hard to tell which outcome will occur. Then you just need common sense.”

Occasionally Volume Climax (up or down) and High Volume Churn bars coincide and these bars are colored magenta.
A word of caution with intra-day charts. High Volume Churn often appears on the last bars of the trading day. This does not necessarily represent a possible turning point, but is more likely just to be high volume from day traders closing out positions.
"
Yes, I do enjoy eating bananas. Very much.
  • #24,189
  • May 11, 2013 3:13pm May 11, 2013 3:13pm
Quoting malcolmb14
alright boys n girls ....been ages since i have been on the threadand glad to see you are all keeping it alive . I have not day traded for ages . Work and my new wife have been keeping me busy . I moved to Dubai so i could trade more and instead find myself trading very little . However have been working the daily on usdcad and gu as they have been not bad , missed usdjpy and completely missed ES move but what to do Hope you are all doing well and that the trading is going well ......
Hello Malcolm,

Welcome back.
Yes, I do enjoy eating bananas. Very much.
  • #24,190
  • May 11, 2013 3:15pm May 11, 2013 3:15pm
Quoting HiddenGap
{quote} We all have to find what works for us. It is certainly not my place to try and persuade you to trade one way or another. But I would say (without knowing exactly what you are doing) that VSA actually can fit nicely into the trend trading category. If one reads through these pages, one will certainly find many people trying to catch tops and bottoms. It is what it is. I just finished watching a video where Tom proudly proclaims "VSA catches almost every top and bottom." That not withstanding, the argument can be made that the real edge...
Awaiting for your next insightful post!
Yes, I do enjoy eating bananas. Very much.
  • #24,191
  • May 11, 2013 10:29pm May 11, 2013 10:29pm
Quoting HiddenGap
{quote} We all have to find what works for us. It is certainly not my place to try and persuade you to trade one way or another. But I would say (without knowing exactly what you are doing) that VSA actually can fit nicely into the trend trading category. If one reads through these pages, one will certainly find many people trying to catch tops and bottoms. It is what it is. I just finished watching a video where Tom proudly proclaims "VSA catches almost every top and bottom." That not withstanding, the argument can be made that the real edge...
Quality post HG.. I have a question for you though, maybe Pres is he reads this.

Do you use/have used the simple trending system? I am curious about the experiences anyone has had with managing trades with this.

I was reading your post and looking at your chart and it made me realize I few things. I don't know why but I have always dismissed the simple trending system.

But it would get you out of trades quickly if you did take a trade against the trend, and it would it reduce your risk while letting your winners run. I hope you don't mind I update your chart with what I saw in realizing this.

I marked each up bar with a vertical green line, horizontal red line is where I would have put my initial stop loss, black line is where I would have moved by stop loss after seeing 2 consecutive up bars.
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  • #24,192
  • Edited 4:41am May 12, 2013 4:10am | Edited 4:41am
Quoting ieatbanana
{quote} Taken from http://emini-watch.com/free-stuff/volume-indicator/ " High Volume Churn bars are identified by dividing volume by the bar's high to low range and then looking for the highest value in the last 20 bars (default setting)... "
Thank you...I knew for explanation in emini-watch...Berry doesnt use it anymore on his charts ( he use pro-amat...indicator instead BV) so there is no interpretation of HighChurn volume often. Sometimes is confusing for me to interpret it correctly...I guess luck off my VSA knowledge overall.
HighChurn volume should fit very well in overall picture if interpreted correctly near support/resistance levels... Although HighChurn volume is not in VSA definition similar to profit taking volume, exhaustion volume...cannot be ignored...I cannot remember when I saw it on HiddenGap charts if I saw it at all.
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #24,193
  • May 12, 2013 10:00pm May 12, 2013 10:00pm
At first I thought it was a retracement of an upmove, but now it feels like SM's are just marking price up for distribution.

However, I am probably wrong!

1.) Upthrust / Selling Pressure
2.) Indecision? Really now?
3.) Price getting pushed back up.. is it a retracement?
4.) Wide candle, closing off high.. selling pressure is definitely there.
5.) Church [for mima] SM's taking profit on longs? <--- Not too sure about this, lol, just put it there for mima. My analysis would be more selling pressure.

Next candle has low volume up bar.. HM.. fishy fishy.
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Yes, I do enjoy eating bananas. Very much.
  • #24,194
  • May 12, 2013 10:56pm May 12, 2013 10:56pm
Quoting ieatbanana
At first I thought it was a retracement of an upmove, but now it feels like SM's are just marking price up for distribution. However, I am probably wrong! 1.) Upthrust / Selling Pressure 2.) Indecision? Really now? 3.) Price getting pushed back up.. is it a retracement? 4.) Wide candle, closing off high.. selling pressure is definitely there. 5.) Church [for mima] SM's taking profit on longs? <--- Not too sure about this, lol, just put it there for mima. My analysis would be more selling pressure. Next candle has low volume up bar.. HM.. fishy...
Good post

Looks as if we saw some possible supply back on 5/9, and you are right about Asia selling today. Don't be a hero, we are still in an up trend.

2h chart..
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  • #24,195
  • May 13, 2013 12:04am May 13, 2013 12:04am
EU 4h based on London..

Have a lot going on in this chart..

Lets start with bar 1 and 3.. Bar 1 as we approached a daily resistance level of 3220 we find an UT. Bar 3 as we approach 3220 a second time, we do so on very low volume and see a rejection of the close on bar 1.

Bar 2 and bar 4, bar 2 we have massive volume across this bar, which does cause a rise in price, the interesting part is bar 4. When we come back down to the level of bar 2, price tries to break above it on low volume and ends up closing as a down bar failing to break above this bar. To me says that bar 2 was not a strong bar.

Today we are back at the low of 4/24 and it looks as if we have found some support, I just have my doubts that it will hold.
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  • #24,196
  • May 13, 2013 12:09am May 13, 2013 12:09am
Quoting SimpleDev
{quote} Good post Looks as if we saw some possible supply back on 5/9, and you are right about Asia selling today. Don't be a hero, we are still in an up trend. 2h chart.. {image}
LOL. I love that! "Don't be a hero".

I'm still waiting for a strong conviction..

I'm afraid I'll be asleep by the time it starts moving. Got a feeling it'll move around 2AM/3AM PST.

Out of boredom, I checked EURUSD and noticed these..

Increasing volume with bars close off the low... yet, it keeps going lower and lower.. Were the SM's absorbing all the buys to mislead retailers into selling? And yes, I am asking you SimpleDev
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Yes, I do enjoy eating bananas. Very much.
  • #24,197
  • May 13, 2013 12:10am May 13, 2013 12:10am
Quoting SimpleDev
EU 4h based on London.. Have a lot going on in this chart.. Lets start with bar 1 and 3.. Bar 1 as we approached a daily resistance level of 3220 we find an UT. Bar 3 as we approach 3220 a second time, we do so on very low volume and see a rejection of the close on bar 1. Bar 2 and bar 4, bar 2 we have massive volume across this bar, which does cause a rise in price, the interesting part is bar 4. When we come back down to the level of bar 2, price tries to break above it on low volume and ends up closing as a down bar failing to break above this...
How funny! We both posted 4HR chart of EURUSD. LOL.
Yes, I do enjoy eating bananas. Very much.
  • #24,198
  • Edited 1:29am May 13, 2013 1:13am | Edited 1:29am
Quoting ieatbanana
5.) Church [for mima] SM's taking profit on longs? <--- Not too sure about this, lol, just put it there for mima... {image}
Thank you.

EJ is in uptrend.move down to some demand which will serve as lunch pad for going up or to continue down is not clear to me yet.
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #24,199
  • May 13, 2013 2:24am May 13, 2013 2:24am
Quoting ieatbanana
{quote}.. Increasing volume with bars close off the low... yet, it keeps going lower and lower.. Were the SM's absorbing all the buys to mislead retailers into selling? And yes, I am asking you SimpleDev {image}
There is some demand in those bars, which is why we found some support at the 4/24 level. Especially in the higher time frames you will see stopping volume and price continues to fall 50-100+ pips just due to the momentum of the trend.

Basically now it is our job to try and figure out whether the demand that came in is stopping volume or just professionals supporting the market. Which right now all we know is we have demand and our trend is down. So we are watching to see how price reacts to the potential demand.
  • #24,200
  • May 13, 2013 2:29am May 13, 2013 2:29am
Half way into writing the previous post jumped into an AJ trade.

Hoping to ride this down to 101.16.
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