Ramblings of a Forex Junkie | Page 167 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Forex Trading: Incorporating Price Behavior into a Forex Trading System 4 replies

Forex Training: What to Look for in a Forex Training Program 1 reply

The Journal Of A Macro Fundamental & Technical Analysis Junkie 26 replies

Trade Anatomy - ramblings of an old-timer 147 replies

Attachments: Ramblings of a Forex Junkie
Exit Attachments

Ramblings of a Forex Junkie

  • #3,321
  • May 10, 2013 10:24am May 10, 2013 10:24am
I just exited my short trade in EU at 2950. Done for the week. I will be around as I like the way the conversation is going. We are now getting away from the fluff about specific method and into the meat of the matter. The original goal of this thread was how to find your own way and the pitfalls along the way. I wanted to discuss the things that make a trader not the method.
  • #3,322
  • May 10, 2013 10:26am May 10, 2013 10:26am
Quoting Stu Effex
This thing is testing out through the roof but I won't put it out here. Why not? I am a nice guy but honestly no person on this thread has sent me one PM describing how they took the information here and ran with it to make it their own. Hey Seneca Don't want to appear like I'm kissing arse here but don't even consider givin' any more. Most are not content they have had a giant tit to suck on, next they want rusks as well ! Fuck em. Give them a spade only. It's hard work digging but the rewards are there if you work hard enough. Did someone else...



Thats not the only thing he's given in this thread that tests very well. Not talking about the ORB.

Even if you gave it away it still wouldn't work for most. In order to make it in this business specifically, you have to literally discover it for yourself.
  • #3,323
  • Edited 11:09am May 10, 2013 10:29am | Edited 11:09am
Quoting Stu Effex
Hi KK Don't tend to post much but do read a couple of threads here at FF & this being one of them ( and a very good one it is ). However I see in your posts something that I was doing a few years ago. It appears to me that you don't seem to be able to rationalise that something can be simple & that there has to be more to a "Method" than what has been explained. When in fact there are no secrets ! The only fact is there are a small percentage in this game that feed off the remainder. A good way to deal with the endless need to find the SECRET...
Hi Stu Effex,

Thank you very much for your reply.
I do think SP's method is amazing effective and can bring success, and I believe he has invested huge amount of time to find it out.
You said there is no secret... I can only partly agree. The fact is you can't pick up just any popular method on FF to win.
A lot of people trading visual support/resistant, for example. Do you think it easily gives a good edge for people try to use it?
Without spending a huge amount of time to tune it and find out the subtlies inside, do you think someone can win with consistently?
Or do you think such a learning process is trival?
A lot of people also try J16 pinbar methods. Do you think people can be successful as far as they have the mindset of trade management and discipline?

kk007

Quoting Seneca pilot
{quote} I know you have a problem with Xhale but he gave you the answer several posts back. 1) open a chart 2)stare at the chart 3)make observations about the patterns in the chart 4)devise a set of rules around these observations 5)test the rules 6)refine and consolidate those rules into something that has an edge 7)rinse and repeat.
I've repeated this process many times to develop some solid methods, but the market seems to change a bit after I've developed my method or the method give me too few setups to trade during the day. And this is the exact reason that I believe it is hard to find a method with good edge, and this the exact reason why I think your sharing is amazing.


P.S. I just want to discuss trading method in general (in a rambling manner), if SP don't like the type of discussion by me, I will stop.
P.S.2. I have been kept saying in my last few posts that psychology is important, but I don't know why those who has replied me keep telling me psychology is important, as if I hadn't thought psychology is important.
  • #3,324
  • May 10, 2013 10:36am May 10, 2013 10:36am
Quoting Good Lookin
{quote} Thats not the only thing he's given in this thread that tests very well. Not talking about the ORB. Even if you gave it away it still wouldn't work for most. In order to make it in this business specifically, you have to literally discover it for yourself.
The ORB will never test well. It makes its money by catching two or three big trends a year and treads water the rest of the time.
  • #3,325
  • May 10, 2013 10:44am May 10, 2013 10:44am
Quoting Seneca pilot
I just exited my short trade in EU at 2950. Done for the week. I will be around as I like the way the conversation is going. We are now getting away from the fluff about specific method and into the meat of the matter. The original goal of this thread was how to find your own way and the pitfalls along the way. I wanted to discuss the things that make a trader not the method.




Too often overlooked and thinking that this stuff is too elementary. A simple statement posed as a question... How could you master calculus if you didn't learn and understand simple arithmetic?

The Law of the Vital Few is not exclusive to trading. It is all around us in all business and endeavors in life. There are reasons for this. The world is not against you, the brokers are not against you. Hollowhead made a very good point in post 3,301, which I would suggest those that haven't read it do so. There are numerous nuggets posted all over FF and are overlooked for one reason or another, which will cause an argument that can never be won.

  • #3,326
  • May 10, 2013 10:46am May 10, 2013 10:46am
Quoting Seneca pilot
{quote} The ORB will never test well. It makes its money by catching two or three big trends a year and treads water the rest of the time.

I couldn't trade it anyway, i like my sleep .
  • #3,327
  • May 10, 2013 10:58am May 10, 2013 10:58am
Quoting Devil Yell
{quote} That is very important info TV. Thanks for sharing it. As I understand it, the defense of, or attack on options are not always successful. Is there a way to get specific options info or is that reserved only for the insiders and their books?
Quick reply...

IFR Markets is a good source. OANDA provides an IFR news feed with option info if you utilize their services, maybe even demo. Some others I would imagine have something similar. The regular IFR Market feed may have more in depth information regarding size of option barriers and exotics, but I choose not to pay for the service. All information is passed on, so I am sure there are barriers that are only on the books. It is my belief that you don't need it all to be successful even though I said more info the better.
  • #3,328
  • May 10, 2013 11:08am May 10, 2013 11:08am
Quoting Devil Yell
Some of the recent posts here are outstanding! In order of appearance.... HollowHead #3301 The NLP info is fascinating. HH, you did mention that "toward" and "away" are not mutually exclusive in that a person may be toward in one pursuit and away in another. Perhaps successful trading requires both to co-exist in the trader for the trading? We want the profit but must preserve capital. The ratio of those is determined by the individuals idiosyncrasies.
Devil Yell. Absolutely they are not exclusive. Someone can have both traits in a given context. I suspect traders who are both 'away from' and 'toward', exercise patience, wait for the right setup but are not afraid to let it run for the big win.

As I said in the post, neither pattern is right or wrong, positive or negative, but something SP's and others comments have reaffirmed in me is that self awareness is key. If you know why you sabotage/self destruct/make stupid decisions when everything is going well - then you have a chance of heading it off.
  • #3,329
  • May 10, 2013 11:12am May 10, 2013 11:12am
Quoting kk007
Hi Stu Effex, I do think SP's method is amazing effective and can bring success, and I believe he has invested huge amount of time to find it out. You said there is no secret... I can only partly agree. The fact is you can't pick up just any popular method on FF to win. A lot of people trading visual support/resistant, for example. Do you think it easily gives a good edge for people try to use it? Without spending a huge amount of time to tune it and find out the tricks inside, do you think someone can win with in consistently? Or do you think such...


KK

If you feel this (S.P.) is amazingly effective then why do you need to know where the real Knowledge is ?
You now mention S & R and does it have an edge for some people to try to use it. R u serious ? There is S & R all over the place but it is all relative. You have to decide which S & R or level or whatever level is significant enough to you that you believe every man & his dog is also looking at that level. You then strike, you are either right or wrong either way it makes no real difference providing you have controlled your risk. This has been explained in so many different ways to you now. If you can't grasp what is essentially a very simple format then I think it would be prudent to bow out gracefully. Yes people use pinbar and all manner of different techniques but the common factor in all, is ability to manage their risk effectively. You asking these same questions over & over about having an edge does not get you any further does it ? So stop ! You have to try these methods yourself. If you don't have the cash to spare to trial such methods then as harsh as this sounds you have no business being here. Demo until you accumulate the required capital to achieve your objectives. Your concern for winning consistently is futile. Seneca has explained you DO NOT HAVE TO WIN CONSISTENTLY but you DO have to be consistent with your money management. With regard to your ramblings, they are just that ramblings & of course that is at the discretion of S.P. but seriously what is there left to discuss about this method ? Most people posting here now are just sharing trades that they have or intend to take and the merits of different levels. My friend the learning process is in the doing not the talking about it ! So get on with it then hopefully share your findings here rather than the relentless quizzing. Good Luck Stu
Once You See, You Can't Unsee But You Will Get The Odd Poke In The Eye
  • #3,330
  • May 10, 2013 11:26am May 10, 2013 11:26am
Some clever people in here Not sure I'm one of them, lol
Looks like I put a wrong line on EJ at 131.60 but for some strange reason it's been bought up all day......anybody???
Maybe it was my guardian angel sending me a subliminal message but I'm just not on the same wavelength. Hello there
  • #3,331
  • May 10, 2013 11:42am May 10, 2013 11:42am
Hey Seneca

Please excuse the interruption did not intend for this exchange but........


KK not trying to be a bully really am trying to help you help yourself.
I am in no way perfect, this is why I can say with much confidence that whilst the levels S.P and others have shared are important they are nothing without effective management and this is probably why everyone keeps banging on about this point with you.
My shortfall is I have a terrible understanding of Fundies but I follow a trader on here that has a deeper understanding and highlights specifics. I also look back to see what impact various news had. I do not bombard him with questions however, I read, digest then go & dig out some info myself. My interpretation is getting better. This shortfall does not stop me playing the game and know 100% that effective management is very forgiving and what enables you to ride the rough patches.

Over & Out

Stu
Once You See, You Can't Unsee But You Will Get The Odd Poke In The Eye
  • #3,332
  • May 10, 2013 11:49am May 10, 2013 11:49am
OK. I have my last post for this line of discussion and then stop (no matter what you reply further).

1. SP told me he has tried a lot of different methods including visual S/R and J16 pinbar without long term success.
2. I did try visual S/R and J16 pinbar and something else without success as daytrading methods. I did have my risk management rules and followed it.
3. For me "winning consistently" just means "generally long-term profitable".
4. Other people can discuss day-to-day levels here, my posts cannot stop their discussion.
5. I started by sharing my viewpoint in one post, but some other posters commented on my replies, and that is why I replied again and again.
6. I acknowledge that you want to restrict this thread to execution discussion and stop discussion of other topics.

Quoting Stu Effex
{quote} KK If you feel this (S.P.) is amazingly effective then why do you need to know where the real Knowledge is ? You now mention S & R and does it have an edge for some people to try to use it. R u serious ? There is S & R all over the place but it is all relative. You have to decide which S & R or level or whatever level is significant enough to you that you believe every man & his dog is also looking at that level. You then strike, you are either right or wrong either way it makes no real difference providing you have controlled your risk....
  • #3,333
  • May 10, 2013 11:51am May 10, 2013 11:51am
Quoting mmaker
{quote} His "discussions" won't end until everyone agreed with him unequivocally that it is hard to find a method with good edge, and even Seneca Pilot hasn't found it. Let's all agree with him and put these past 3 pages to rest and get on with charts.
Maybe I am just visual, I am certainly no mathematician but I see patterns in price behavior all over charts. They don't all play out but many are consistent enough to make money. I am speaking of price based patterns more than triangles, wedges, and the like. It takes time and an analytical brain to locate these things but they are there for the taking. Any time I open a chart I look at it with the perspective of looking for the things that repeat. It just happens that the majority of the ones that work out for me occur around market highs, lows, opens, and closes.
  • #3,334
  • May 10, 2013 12:34pm May 10, 2013 12:34pm
KK, there ain't no holy grail.....well there is something that resembles one and it looks at you in the mirror.....
Forget maths, charts, fundies, just concentrate on money management and hope that some central bankers don't come along and shaft you in the middle of an overleveraged trade....
Maybe you should concentrate on the day job? You know even time doesn't really exist? Change exists and time is just something that man invented to represent it
Most of life nowadays in based on opinions, rather than facts, lol
Ok I'm off to get drunk for the weekend and dream/have nightmares about mandelbrotian geometry/black swans/off balance sheet accounting/QE to infinity...
Apparently there is a new moon tonight - the markets could get jittery next week - this could be the top for the rest of the year! Put the frickin farm on it!!!
  • #3,335
  • May 10, 2013 1:25pm May 10, 2013 1:25pm
Quoting TantumVerum
{quote} This is it. Trading option expiry levels this way when they are in play (shown by PA) has been very good to me. When you are looking at the market as a whole you can get a good idea of where it wants to go, but like anything else it doesn't always hold true. Take for example today. It could have been a false move down to get to that level if that vanilla option was rather large, or was an exotic. If this was the case the market isn't necessarily trending down in a traditional sense. You just have to be aware of the overall market when these...
Thanks TV. Good points.
  • #3,336
  • May 10, 2013 1:38pm May 10, 2013 1:38pm
Let's get back to charts and share findings of the merits of each level or any other significant price levels, and how price interacts with these levels at different sessions of the day (Tokyo, London, New York).[/quote]

I agree MM. When you start really looking at levels, well there is no end of significant levels and you can, dependant upon your approach use them over & over. I know we have daily high/low etc and very effective too. Even if you only trade a 15 min chart you can still plot yearly levels high/low,mid. The same with Quarterly & Monthly mids etc you will run into them at some point. Rather than step in front of the bus I tend to look for weakness around these levels, I go as low as 5 minute chart for entry. I say weakness but rather my interpretation of weakness. Quite often there are significant times in the day coupled with a meeting of my perceived important level that price stagnates, followed by false momentum into the level ( the late comers). Then bingo I'm in. Obviously this does not always work. However, when it does I tend to nurse the opening stages and lock in a portion of my trade to cover expenses, then allow the remainder to run, sometimes adding to the trade within the first couple days or so. I do not have hard and fast rule on profit taking but if I feel things ain't going the way they orta have no problem stopping it dead without fretting that I did not achieve R:R of whatever. I personally think rigidity will destroy you in this game and apply discretion all the way. Not saying rigid does not work but not for me. I think this is simplicity personified. It has to be I'm not that bright !
Seneca I hope this posting is within the realms of discussion ?
Once You See, You Can't Unsee But You Will Get The Odd Poke In The Eye
  • #3,337
  • May 10, 2013 1:41pm May 10, 2013 1:41pm
One for the weekend SP...I know you like a good wordsmith

Inserted Video
  • #3,338
  • May 10, 2013 1:59pm May 10, 2013 1:59pm
Quoting Stu Effex
Let's get back to charts and share findings of the merits of each level or any other significant price levels, and how price interacts with these levels at different sessions of the day (Tokyo, London, New York).
I agree MM. When you start really looking at levels, well there is no end of significant levels and you can, dependant upon your approach use them over & over. I know we have daily high/low etc and very effective too. Even if you only trade a 15 min chart you can still plot yearly levels high/low,mid. The same with Quarterly & Monthly mids etc you will run into them at some point. Rather than step in front of the bus I tend to look for weakness around these levels, I go as low as 5 minute chart for entry. I say weakness but rather my interpretation of weakness. Quite often there are significant times in the day coupled with a meeting of my perceived important level that price stagnates, followed by false momentum into the level ( the late comers). Then bingo I'm in. Obviously this does not always work. However, when it does I tend to nurse the opening stages and lock in a portion of my trade to cover expenses, then allow the remainder to run, sometimes adding to the trade within the first couple days or so. I do not have hard and fast rule on profit taking but if I feel things ain't going the way they orta have no problem stopping it dead without fretting that I did not achieve R:R of whatever. I personally think rigidity will destroy you in this game and apply discretion all the way. Not saying rigid does not work but not for me. I think this is simplicity personified. It has to be I'm not that bright ! Seneca I hope this posting is within the realms of discussion ?[/quote]

No boundaries here as long as we remain civil.
  • #3,339
  • May 10, 2013 2:00pm May 10, 2013 2:00pm
Quoting oconnor365
One for the weekend SP...I know you like a good wordsmith http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f7UHd7NVegE

I will have a listen later, I have a little John Prine going right now.
  • #3,340
  • May 10, 2013 4:01pm May 10, 2013 4:01pm
Quoting oconnor365
One for the weekend SP...I know you like a good wordsmith http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f7UHd7NVegE
Sounds a bit like Buster Poindexter. I like his songs.
7 traders viewing now