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AUD/USD

  • #58,161
  • May 9, 2013 9:48pm May 9, 2013 9:48pm
  • #58,162
  • May 9, 2013 9:49pm May 9, 2013 9:49pm
Quoting FlyCapital
{quote}

with the rumours of soros is shorting aus/usd and usd/jpy is running high, i really doubt soros will allow aus/usd retrace to that level today. In addtion, today is friday which is last trading of this week. it usually dont go much reverse entry on Friday. Anyway that is my personal opinion, just share my thoughts only.
  • #58,163
  • May 9, 2013 9:52pm May 9, 2013 9:52pm
Quoting profit taker
{quote} do u mean by today it may up to 1.0170 or other time frame before it plunge ?
I've been following what I believe to be an EW pattern from the 1.0580 high on 4/11 on the 4hr chart. If I'm right we just ended wave 3 and are headed for the 38.2% fib at 1.0174ish for wave 4. This would preceed a run to parity for Wave 5.

However, what do I know. It could very well not break 1.0098 all night and drop toward parity.

I'm still learning EW, so I'm not able to project time frames, but I don't think it will be today unless we get some news out of the G7 that causes enough volitility for a big move.
  • #58,164
  • May 9, 2013 9:53pm May 9, 2013 9:53pm
Quoting profit taker
{quote} with the rumours of soros is shorting aus/usd and usd/jpy is running high, i really doubt soros will allow aus/usd retrace to that level today. In addtion, today is friday which is last trading of this week. it usually dont go much reverse entry on Friday. Anyway that is my personal opinion, just share my thoughts only.
You are probably right. I'm just looking at what I see on the chart. One has to take other non-chart factors(news, soros, etc.) into account too.
  • #58,165
  • May 9, 2013 9:54pm May 9, 2013 9:54pm
Quoting profit taker
{quote} with the rumours of soros is shorting aus/usd and usd/jpy is running high, i really doubt soros will allow aus/usd retrace to that level today. In addtion, today is friday which is last trading of this week. it usually dont go much reverse entry on Friday. Anyway that is my personal opinion, just share my thoughts only.
My style of trading is very waterish I allow S/R and PA to confirm my position.
  • #58,166
  • May 9, 2013 10:11pm May 9, 2013 10:11pm
trying to do scalping ,

short at 1.00802
tp at 1.0073
sl at 1.0095
  • #58,167
  • May 9, 2013 10:54pm May 9, 2013 10:54pm
aah! One of the best day in my trading career!! Whatta fireworks! wooh! Bagged lot of pips.
Just one thing I am not happy is AUD/USD. Lolz man the long orders got triggered and within seconds SLs got hit. This is serious damage for AUD/USD. Never saw this one to fall like a stone. Anyways it cost me -40 pips but fireworks gave me 250 pips so overall 200+ pips is more than expected!

Now cancelled all long orders and waiting for right setup to enter "long" with target 1.03 Maybe I am done with this week as I don't see any positive movement on my charts but it's a massive damage by JPY so I guess pullback to 1.02 can be seen soon. Wish you guys all the best!
  • #58,168
  • May 9, 2013 11:34pm May 9, 2013 11:34pm
Lot of people asked me why I am long and the answer is always the same what is down will go up and what is up will come down and with smart money management and getting paid (positive swap) to wait is a bonus.
I can easily take another 500pips drawdown because I don't over trade.I never place my intented amount all at once.Always keeping the real punch for highest number or most bottom or top.Green pips to all
MY TP is around 1030
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #58,169
  • May 9, 2013 11:42pm May 9, 2013 11:42pm
Quoting profit taker
trying to do scalping , short at 1.00802 tp at 1.0073 sl at 1.0095
tp at 1.0079. haha
  • #58,170
  • May 9, 2013 11:48pm May 9, 2013 11:48pm
Quoting Davit
Lot of people asked me why I am long and the answer is always the same what is down will go up and what is up will come down and with smart money management and getting paid (positive swap) to wait is a bonus. I can easily take another 500pips drawdown because I don't over trade.I never place my intented amount all at once.Always keeping the real punch for highest number or most bottom or top.Green pips to all MY TP is around 1030
so may i ask have you made any entry yet ? if yes ,what is your price and stop loss.
  • #58,171
  • May 9, 2013 11:49pm May 9, 2013 11:49pm
in technical terms Aussie weekly is still above 200MA that is still uptrend.(yellow line)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd.weekly.png Size: 41 KB
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #58,172
  • May 9, 2013 11:52pm May 9, 2013 11:52pm
Quoting profit taker
{quote} so may i ask have you made any entry yet ? if yes ,what is your price and stop loss.
No SL and yes multiple entries
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd.h1.png Size: 47 KB
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #58,173
  • May 9, 2013 11:59pm May 9, 2013 11:59pm
Quoting Davit
in technical terms Aussie weekly is still above 200MA that is still uptrend.(yellow line) {image}
thx for your response and weekly chart. i use weekly chart for reference only. I usually trade charts referemce with h4, h1,m15 and m1 time frame. anyway i hope to achieve at least 70 pips a day will make me happy already which i usually did. nice sharing from you.
  • #58,174
  • May 10, 2013 12:06am May 10, 2013 12:06am
Quoting profit taker
{quote} thx for your response and weekly chart. i use weekly chart for reference only. I usually trade charts referemce with h4, h1,m15 and m1 time frame. anyway i hope to achieve at least 70 pips a day will make me happy already which i usually did. nice sharing from you.
The way I trade without SL is imagine worse possible scenario and work backwards and manage orders in size with account.So in real terms I am prepared to hold and add longs all the way to .50 which was 2009 low.I don't think greenbacks is that strong now.I have seen Aussie bounce within days.
Reason is simple getting 2.75 interest is good incentive for investment therefore I don't see panic in longs.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #58,175
  • May 10, 2013 12:25am May 10, 2013 12:25am
Quoting Davit
{quote} The way I trade without SL is imagine worse possible scenario and work backwards and manage orders in size with account.So in real terms I am prepared to hold and add longs all the way to .50 which was 2009 low.I don't think greenbacks is that strong now.I have seen Aussie bounce within days. Reason is simple getting 2.75 interest is good incentive for investment therefore I don't see panic in longs.
Well that sounds like you have a very big account with great MM.
Well I accepted my SLs last night with orders triggered with drop. I hope I will recover those 40 pips I lost yesterday. Anyways was not a damage anymore as I am already making money above my target! But still loss is loss!
  • #58,176
  • May 10, 2013 12:30am May 10, 2013 12:30am
Quoting Davit
{quote} The way I trade without SL is imagine worse possible scenario and work backwards and manage orders in size with account.So in real terms I am prepared to hold and add longs all the way to .50 which was 2009 low.I don't think greenbacks is that strong now.I have seen Aussie bounce within days. Reason is simple getting 2.75 interest is good incentive for investment therefore I don't see panic in longs.
Sounds like one of my 2 systems is similar to yours. I don't look at monthly or weekly charts much though, preferring daily 200 SMA. Whilst I tend to have a slight bearish bias I trade long and short positions. Curious though on two points:
1. You mentioned being able to easily take 500 pips drawdown but planning for .50 is 5,000 pips.
2. I can imagine that if Euro breaks up that we could have a similar situation to the GFC where the dip takes over a year to bottom and recover, during which time the swaps could forseeably change in the event of an American recovery. As such I will only go very light net long & possibly only if we approach the 96c low. I know that rising US interest rates causes issues with their debt levels but I'm trying to plan for the worst. Your thoughts?

My long term target for longs is currently over 1.05 (subject to revision depending on how low current trip goes). Target for current shorts undecided but may well hold them as insurance to cover longs until I get a chance to load up on shorts when AUD much higher.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #58,177
  • May 10, 2013 2:24am May 10, 2013 2:24am
just a courtesy reminder to all who wish to long aus/usd today : don't ever fight against BOJ and soros, unless u have deep pockets. Think twice.
  • #58,178
  • May 10, 2013 2:27am May 10, 2013 2:27am
Quoting profit taker
just a courtesy reminder to all who wish to long aus/usd today : don't ever fight against BOJ and soros, unless u have deep pockets. Think twice.
safer way to wait for at least an hour 4 or buy above resistance with buy stops, or minimum waiting for daily close for a bull sign or demand. The Lone US Sessions sparks the stops run across all the pairs few hours ahead of closing, now is USD strong trend still, need wait exhaustion, won't know if it may spark another history of sell in may again,

now is danger for down side and parity challenge.
  • #58,179
  • May 10, 2013 2:50am May 10, 2013 2:50am
Not much of a danger of parity challenge... after all it's only couple of pips away.

IMO the real danger is if there'll be a change of long term trend (to down).

However, if you're betting on a collapse of the USD like me, then you're always looking to buy on the dips.
  • #58,180
  • May 10, 2013 3:02am May 10, 2013 3:02am
GBPUSD on support level 38.2 of daily chart. previous resistance area. 1.5410-20 this area to note. below this will go to 1.5335 the place before it burst up. USD should exhaust abit here.

EURUSD on 1.3000 earlier, important support for whole no. 23.6 of daily some where around 1.2970-90.

AUSUSD 1.0040 , then 1.0020 then 1.000. below 1.000 forget longing for time being.

i suppose price should retrace abit now, seeing demand on gbp and eur on hour 1 thus far,

1.0155's previous support potentially resistance now before any further up.

waiting for daily close or hour 4 on aud before longing new entries.
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