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Ramblings of a Forex Junkie

  • #3,281
  • May 9, 2013 2:19pm May 9, 2013 2:19pm
There are people who lost fortunes today. I lost enough to pay for a decent used car. Take lessons like today and file them in your memory. Burn them in well and anytime you think about not using stops or doubling down on a loss or going all in on a trade or levering up like was suggested yesterday in this thread think back and remember this day and the millions of dollars that were lost by undisciplined traders on the wrong side of this move.
  • #3,282
  • May 9, 2013 2:19pm May 9, 2013 2:19pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
{quote} Well of course I would have bought GJ and EJ if the price action looked like up to me. Everything I saw right around the London close and the hour following looked like distribution to me. I can't really beat myself up too much as these moves happen and I didn't see it coming. I figured at some point that we were going to test 100 but the BOJ decided I guess there would be no tests but a clean break. I suppose the lesson here is to make sure you are not overleveraged and keep stops in. The bias comes from the first trade of the day, what...
Thank you very much. This was very helpful.

I also believe, that you can find some gold nuggets from this day when analysing and writing journal.
  • #3,283
  • May 9, 2013 2:20pm May 9, 2013 2:20pm
Chris, sorry to hear about your loss but like you say, part of the game....
Re european holiday, not sure I'd read too much into that. Currencies certainly didn't mind and even the Dax was open. I know cos I was trading the cash and it had some decent moves within about 50 pip range.......
Cheers and looking forward to your next trades!
PS EJ move was brutal but look at the retrace as well.......

Edit : forgot to mention Dax set a new record when the Germans were having a national holiday; oh the irony of it!
  • #3,284
  • May 9, 2013 2:28pm May 9, 2013 2:28pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
There are people who lost fortunes today. I lost enough to pay for a decent used car. Take lessons like today and file them in your memory. Burn them in well and anytime you think about not using stops or doubling down on a loss or going all in on a trade or levering up like was suggested yesterday in this thread think back and remember this day and the millions of dollars that were lost by undisciplined traders on the wrong side of this move.

hum hum , my ears are a bit itchy .... but i was just talking about 4% risk per trade .... if you lose 17 trades in a row you lose 50 % of your K .... so its not something really stupid 4% risk .... its just risky ...
Logic will take you from A to B Imagination will take you anywhere (A.E)
  • #3,285
  • May 9, 2013 2:33pm May 9, 2013 2:33pm
Quoting landsat
{quote} hum hum , my ears are a bit itchy .... but i was just talking about 4% risk per trade .... if you lose 17 trades in a row you lose 50 % of your K .... so its not something really stupid 4% risk .... its just risky ...
I won't beat this dead horse more than once but if I had risked four percent on every trade today I would be around forty percent poorer. I risk so small because I am not perfect and there are days like this.
  • #3,286
  • May 9, 2013 2:38pm May 9, 2013 2:38pm
Quoting jonnypants
Chris, sorry to hear about your loss but like you say, part of the game.... Re european holiday, not sure I'd read too much into that. Currencies certainly didn't mind and even the Dax was open. I know cos I was trading the cash and it had some decent moves within about 50 pip range....... Cheers and looking forward to your next trades! PS EJ move was brutal but look at the retrace as well....... Edit : forgot to mention Dax set a new record when the Germans were having a national holiday; oh the irony of it!
Funny you mention that, most of my testing doesn't take holidays into consideration but I usually skip trading during the holidays. I certainly would have had a different outcome today had I traded last night during Europe because the dollar pairs (EU and GU) had good trades triggered and good follow on moves throughout the day.
  • #3,287
  • Edited 3:28pm May 9, 2013 3:03pm | Edited 3:28pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
{quote}The thing to focus on in trading is not to be right or even to win at trades. The thing to focus on is to take good trades. Take trades at places where you have an edge and protect your capital and things will work out just fine.
I hope i'm not doing something forbidden for this thread, and also I hope it wont annoy you Seneca, but this post is just SO GOOD that I have to show everyone who haven't seen it yet. Also it is very relevant to the topic discussed and basically saying the same thing you said here Chris.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=196702

If you read post #19 on the same thread you will see that the mentor who said all these things was an actual trader for PTJ (Paul Tudor Jones).

Njoy everyone
"Always be yourself " Batman
  • #3,288
  • May 9, 2013 3:11pm May 9, 2013 3:11pm
Quoting mmaker
{quote} Just short it. After all it's only 1 trade. No point analyzing it to death.
You are so right ! Thanks for this. I definitely have to stop dramatizing every trade.
"Always be yourself " Batman
  • #3,289
  • May 9, 2013 3:12pm May 9, 2013 3:12pm
Seems like today has been a crazy day across all markets. I'm sorry about your day Chris but I'm pretty sure with your skill set, you will be back in no time.

My day on ES. One on Asia open and one on NY open.
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  • #3,290
  • May 9, 2013 3:16pm May 9, 2013 3:16pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
The thing to focus on in trading is not to be right or even to win at trades. The thing to focus on is to take good trades.
Funny that you mentioned this because this is the exact thing going through my head as I was going to sleep. Many times I have been so focused on taking trades that win instead of focusing on doing what's right (even if it means taking a loss out of it).
  • #3,291
  • May 9, 2013 3:41pm May 9, 2013 3:41pm
Quoting rdsl
{quote} I hope i'm not doing something forbidden for this thread, and also I hope it wont annoy you Seneca, but this post is just SO GOOD that I have to show everyone who haven't seen it yet. Also it is very relevant to the topic discussed and basically saying the same thing you said here Chris. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=196702 If you read post #19 on the same thread you will see that the mentor who said all these things was an actual trader for PTJ (Paul Tudor Jones). Njoy everyone
Thanks for reminding me of that. I think I have read just about every thread on this forum sometimes but I never kept links or catalogued anything. That may be where I got the final determination to take my losses. I have been helped by so many people on this thread and they don't even know it. Mostly in the area of discipline and psychology.
  • #3,292
  • May 9, 2013 10:21pm May 9, 2013 10:21pm
Chris, hope you are enjoying some time off.
I guess one could speak of the devil in terms of the discussion we just had about consecutive losses.

Did your strategy, which seems to thrive in a ranging environment simply hit the wall temporary in a highly tending environment?
Is that at least a partial explanation for what happened? (Other than the fact that you insisted on repeatedly getting back in front of the ever accelerating freight train... I kid, I kid... )

Let me hear it for Chris, can I get a whoop...

Stay cool,
FXT
  • #3,293
  • May 9, 2013 10:35pm May 9, 2013 10:35pm
Quoting fxterrapin
Chris, hope you are enjoying some time off. I guess one could speak of the devil in terms of the discussion we just had about consecutive losses. Did your strategy, which seems to thrive in a ranging environment simply hit the wall temporary in a highly tending environment? Is that at least a partial explanation for what happened? (Other than the fact that you insisted on repeatedly getting back in front of the ever accelerating freight train... I kid, I kid... ) Stay cool, FXT
You are more right than you know. The strategy loves chop. I does work in trends but only when there is a retest or when you get a daily open entry in the direction of the trend. As for my selling at higher levels, I am guilty. I got a little behind the market today and made a couple of bad decisions. I am just as capable of being wrong as anyone. I will likely have my first losing week in quite a while as I am not in a hurry to get too involved with the market until I have had a weekend to do some debriefing. I missed an exit signal on EJ that is part of one of my other methods. I totally ignored it. I saw it but I was so totally sure of my short position that I completely ignored it. Just getting out then would have resulted in not getting hit for the big ones due to the fast move. The thing went sixty pips so fast that the slip was horrendous. I misread the three plus rejections of the London close on GJ as distribution but in reality it was obviously accumulation.

I am fine. I am only down 1.6% and that is one or two trades away from positive territory. I will more than likely keep my positions small until I get back into a position where I am seeing things more clearly. I may trade tonight or I may just watch the market. After a day like today the market often takes a breather and does nothing but grind around. I will not place much of my money into that grinder. Tuesday is just a long weekend away and there will be plenty of good trading next week.
  • #3,294
  • May 9, 2013 10:52pm May 9, 2013 10:52pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
{quote} You are more right than you know. The strategy loves chop. I does work in trends but only when there is a retest or when you get a daily open entry in the direction of the trend. As for my selling at higher levels, I am guilty. I got a little behind the market today and made a couple of bad decisions. I am just as capable of being wrong as anyone. I will likely have my first losing week in quite a while as I am not in a hurry to get too involved with the market until I have had a weekend to do some debriefing. I missed an exit signal on...
A couple of observations I will add. apparently I have made a mistake for years by skipping holidays. EJ today went long off the weekly open very early in the session and after a tough retest went on to go up. I would have had a long bias today if I had been there for that open. I would not have thought sell at all but simply taken profit at a level and waited for it to break. By coming in during NY I took a sell bias due to price hitting the NY close and looking very much like a double top. It was definitely a big error. Second, there were some clues with GJ that completely passed me bye. There were successive closes below the London open from yesterday that I read as distribution. Looking at the chart now without being in the heat of the moment I can clearly see that each bar was going less in my favor and the price was coiling. If anything I should have had my guard up and been ready to get out but I held the London close entries too long. Third, with respect to selling the week high and getting killed on slippage when it broke through. There was not much I could do there. Once the stops gave it was a rocket and anyone on the wrong side was toast. I would probably sell the week high most any time so I have no regrets there.

Yes I am very glad on a day like this that I only risk about half a percent on most trades. I botched it up pretty good today and learned some new lessons but I still have 98.4% of the capital that I had three days ago and I am nowhere near any type of point where I am worried about having to climb a wall to get back to even. I am scared as hell of risk and I think I showed today why that is a healthy attitude for a trader to have.
  • #3,295
  • May 9, 2013 11:12pm May 9, 2013 11:12pm
Quoting rdsl
{quote} I hope i'm not doing something forbidden for this thread, and also I hope it wont annoy you Seneca, but this post is just SO GOOD that I have to show everyone who haven't seen it yet. Also it is very relevant to the topic discussed and basically saying the same thing you said here Chris. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=196702 If you read post #19 on the same thread you will see that the mentor who said all these things was an actual trader for PTJ (Paul Tudor Jones). Njoy everyone
Posts like these get the author the vouches. Some easily 10+ vouches within one single thread, by impressing their "wisdom" on the followers writing long flowery posts. If there is no proof with TradeExplorer or Myfxbook, I would not go to another thread to re-post and bring attention to such guru.
No longer trading forex. Looking for full time job.
  • #3,296
  • May 9, 2013 11:36pm May 9, 2013 11:36pm
Quoting mmaker
{quote} Posts like these get the author the vouches. Some easily 10+ vouches within one single thread, by impressing their "wisdom" on the followers writing long flowery posts. If there is no proof with TradeExplorer or Myfxbook, I would not go to another thread to re-post and bring attention to such guru.
Sometimes its better to look beyond the "vouches" and at the actual content. It's better to apply what you need and dismiss what you don't need. There are a lot of 10+V posters who pretty much trades demo all day, but there are also posters with no vouches that drops wisdom I wish I have when I started. I don't really care if someone has TradeExplorer/Myfxbook or not, I'd rather judge the content based on my personal experience and learn to apply it in a way useful. Someone can boast a godlike myfxbook but that's meaningless to me if I can't apply.

The reason I'm typing this is because the link to post provided was sound. I think many people need to take a hard look at doing what's right instead of thinking about making money everyday.
  • #3,297
  • May 9, 2013 11:38pm May 9, 2013 11:38pm
Quoting mmaker
{quote} Posts like these get the author the vouches. Some easily 10+ vouches within one single thread, by impressing their "wisdom" on the followers writing long flowery posts. If there is no proof with TradeExplorer or Myfxbook, I would not go to another thread to re-post and bring attention to such guru.
Dopey has almost never discussed anything about his method... always talk about psychology... not sure the reason behind.
It is totally right to have proper psychology, but only after someone who technically grasp a method for a sure edge...
I heard a lot of times that "winning big in back testing and demo cannot help you to go for real..." these people keep suggesting it is easy to trade technically as far as you have the right psychology, but this is far from true. Even famous people like Mark Douglas sound misleading when he say there are unlimited opportunity in the market, as far as you have the discipline to take it - play down the technical part too much.
I am not saying that the psychology part is easy or unimportant, but the technical part is also extremely hard, and it is not going to help if you concentrate your effort on the psychology part, before you grasp the technical part after making a big effort.
As SP said, find a method with a definite edge is not easy, after spending 11 years in the game, he cannot find method other than what he is currently using. I have also spent many thousand hours in the game, I have the same conclusion about the difficulty in finding a method with definite edge. Hanover has similar conclusion, as he has said if discipline is the main problem, why almost no programmer can win by composing a comphensive EA.
  • #3,298
  • Edited May 10, 2013 1:17am May 9, 2013 11:43pm | Edited May 10, 2013 1:17am
Quoting kk007
I have also spent many thousand hours in the game, I have the same conclusion about the difficulty in finding a method with definite edge.
Where did you look? In public forums? What if you're looking at the wrong places? And I underline the word public.

Not trying to be funny, but what Donald Rumsfeld stated is reasonable:
"There are known knowns; there are things we know that we know.
There are known unknowns; that is to say, there are things that we now know we don't know.
But there are also unknown unknowns - there are things we do not know we don't know."

Quoting kk007
Are you suggesting this thread here is a wrong place?
I never said that. SP already explained to you this thread is about the method he is currently using and doing well.

Quoting kk007
Btw, where would you think to be the right place to look?
I know you're not looking for the Holy Grail of trading, but your thought process is obviously heading that way. Will let those 10+ vouches gurus explain to you why this might be a futile quest. Much easier if you alter your search to look for "trader" with a definite edge, rather than "method" with a definite edge. Sorry, this might be too deep for you.

Quoting kk007
If you can't explain your idea of "right" place, nevermind.
As you wish. Keep searching in public forums then.
No longer trading forex. Looking for full time job.
  • #3,299
  • Edited May 10, 2013 12:49am May 9, 2013 11:47pm | Edited May 10, 2013 12:49am
Quoting mmaker
{quote} Where did you look? In public forums? What if you're looking at the wrong places? And I underline the word public.
Ok, maybe you can find a method with defintion edge not with big difficulty, but not for day trading... i.e. not a method can give you setups almost every day trading with a few pairs. Or a method with an edge not big enough to counteract the trading cost of spread/commission.

Btw, where would you think to be the right place to look? Are you suggesting this thread here is a wrong place?

Quoting mmaker
I know you're not looking for the Holy Grail of trading, but your thought process is obviously heading that way. Will let those 10+ vouches gurus explain to you why this might be a futile quest. Much easier if you alter your search to look for "trader" with a definite edge, rather than "method" with a definite edge. Sorry, this might be too deep for you.
Don't get angry, please. We just have rational discussion here. If you can't explain your idea of "right" place, nevermind.
  • #3,300
  • Edited 3:45am May 10, 2013 3:11am | Edited 3:45am
Caught a good buy in GBPJPY at 155.929, around the Daily 12amET Open (155.954 on TradeStation feed). As Seneca Pilot said before, the Daily Opens are good for continuation trade if the trend is established.

Quoting hollowhead
There are other patterns I am happy to explain, and how I see they fit with trading psychology if folk are interested, or Chris wants me to. NB – people have different patterns in different contexts. Just because you are one thing in the context of trading, it doesn’t mean you are the same in the context of family, work, or vacation.
The IRC chatroom I mentioned on this post is still open, if you guys want to chit chat outside of SP method.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...48#post6661448
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No longer trading forex. Looking for full time job.
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