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  • #3,261
  • May 9, 2013 6:00am May 9, 2013 6:00am
Quoting jonnypants
Interesting how we get slightly different numbers.....my NY close is at 130.17 Best number today for me was the weekly open at 130.03 - see how 2 wicks touched it exactly early on? Hollowhead what was the number you shorted from? {image}
I have 130.18 for EJ NY close so we are right in line.
  • #3,262
  • May 9, 2013 6:07am May 9, 2013 6:07am
Quoting TraderT
{quote} Hi SP, Hope all is well. I went through your previous posts and couldn't find a reply to this. Do share more when appropriate... (I'm staying away from MT4 as i don't want to go back to indicators and outlays, but will do visual backtesting soon.) Have started trading a small live account, risking only 1% per trade. As i don't have the screentime to enter a trade and then reverse it after a stop and retest, i'm trading using a set-and-forget method. Yes, i've read TRT and PeterCrowns, but i'm going to stick to this for at least 2 weeks...
Just something I am going to look at. It'll probably just lead to nowhere like the staircases in the mansion built by that crazy woman who inherited the Winchester Gun maker's fortune.

As a side note the code that Lee is working on is turning out to be really great so I may change my investments over to this new thing as it will be able to be automated. I actually found a code that might work over the long haul. Don't ask because I won't talk about it. This one will be kept close to my vest. I will still always manually trade the levels for income but I may be dropping the ORB. It makes money but it has more drawdown than I like. The last two or three months have been tough on the ORB because of all the choppy moves and retracements of retracements. It is a trend following method and when we flatten out it loses. The new thing likes trends but they only have to last for several hours instead of several days.
  • #3,263
  • May 9, 2013 6:10am May 9, 2013 6:10am
Hey Pilot.

How do I check out your myfxbook?
Time hides Nothing
  • #3,264
  • May 9, 2013 6:13am May 9, 2013 6:13am
Quoting TraderT
{quote} Hi SP, Hope all is well. I went through your previous posts and couldn't find a reply to this. Do share more when appropriate... (I'm staying away from MT4 as i don't want to go back to indicators and outlays, but will do visual backtesting soon.) Have started trading a small live account, risking only 1% per trade. As i don't have the screentime to enter a trade and then reverse it after a stop and retest, i'm trading using a set-and-forget method. Yes, i've read TRT and PeterCrowns, but i'm going to stick to this for at least 2 weeks...
If you are planning set and forget with levels it will be tough. With the current conditions you can probably get away with using daily highs and lows. The strategy relies on being able to reverse positions after a stop out. Can you memorize the entry number and watch for a stop out and reenter using a smart phone? I do this sometimes when I have to be away from the computer.

Alternatively you can trade weekly highs and lows and hold the trades for longer periods. Also take a look at week mid levels.
  • #3,265
  • May 9, 2013 6:17am May 9, 2013 6:17am
Quoting CindyXXXX
Hey Pilot. How do I check out your myfxbook?
Link on the first page of the thread.

I changed brokers and accounts around over the past two weeks so this is a new explorer. It will take a few weeks to get enough trades to mean anything.
  • #3,266
  • May 9, 2013 6:20am May 9, 2013 6:20am
Quoting Seneca pilot
{quote} Link on the first page of the thread. I changed brokers and accounts around over the past two weeks so this is a new explorer. It will take a few weeks to get enough trades to mean anything.
Duh...Sorry fella. Ok ty
Time hides Nothing
  • #3,267
  • May 9, 2013 7:27am May 9, 2013 7:27am
Waiting patiently:
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  • #3,268
  • May 9, 2013 7:36am May 9, 2013 7:36am
Decided to set a tight stop my EU short to lock in profits as I had to go into a meeting at work, and wasn't sure what the news was doing. Typical that it spiked up, took out the stop and went down to the Prev day low (40 pips) which is where I had the TP. Also had a Pending Buy set for that level, so I'm now long EU from about 1.3086. Haven't decided where to target TP yet.

Edit - will post charts later
  • #3,269
  • May 9, 2013 7:44am May 9, 2013 7:44am
Quoting Seneca pilot
{quote} If you are planning set and forget with levels it will be tough. With the current conditions you can probably get away with using daily highs and lows. The strategy relies on being able to reverse positions after a stop out. Can you memorize the entry number and watch for a stop out and reenter using a smart phone? I do this sometimes when I have to be away from the computer. Alternatively you can trade weekly highs and lows and hold the trades for longer periods. Also take a look at week mid levels.
I'm taking the daily high and lows, and setting limit orders to short the high and buy the low, without reversals. This strategy happened to work OK for the last 2 days this week, but as you've mentioned, it is important to take up to 3 trades. Will observe the weekly levels more...

Due to my timezone (GMT +8) and work, the only time i can concentrate on the screen is:
(a) 1/2hr before and 1/2 hr after Japan market open
(b) 1hr before the US open till 2 hrs after US market open

It seems the only trading i can do is:
- news trade (using the 15min IB strategy).
- USDJPY trading off daily high-low, or some form of ORB (more forward testing & work needs to be done on this pair)
  • #3,270
  • May 9, 2013 7:47am May 9, 2013 7:47am
Quoting hollowhead
Decided to set a tight stop my EU short to lock in profits as I had to go into a meeting at work, and wasn't sure what the news was doing. Typical that it spiked up, took out the stop and went down to the Prev day low (40 pips) which is where I had the TP. Also had a Pending Buy set for that level, so I'm now long EU from about 1.3086. Haven't decided where to target TP yet. Edit - will post charts later
Just remember, your first trade of the day was short and the Euro has gone down all day. The daily low is your best shot at a move up but certainly not a guarantee. I would definitely have taken profit at the daily low but I am not sure I would have bought. I have the benefit of being able to watch all day. It is quite an advantage.

I will repeat again, moving your stop up too quickly will kill your profits. You actually can go broke taking a win. Moving the stop is ok but you need to make sure that you hide it behind some level. Above the Wed. close would have worked out fine for you and preserved a little profit.
  • #3,271
  • May 9, 2013 7:49am May 9, 2013 7:49am
Quoting TraderT
{quote} I'm taking the daily high and lows, and setting limit orders to short the high and buy the low, without reversals. This strategy happened to work OK for the last 2 days this week, but as you've mentioned, it is important to take up to 3 trades. Will observe the weekly levels more... Due to my timezone (GMT +8) and work, the only time i can concentrate on the screen is: (a) 1/2hr before and 1/2 hr after Japan market open (b) 1hr before the US open till 2 hrs after US market open It seems the only trading i can do is: - news trade (using the...
UJ respects the US close rather well. You might consider trading that level when you can. Of course you want to avoid big news events with any levels and stick to the NFP trading style.
  • #3,272
  • May 9, 2013 7:56am May 9, 2013 7:56am
Quoting Seneca pilot
{quote} Just remember, your first trade of the day was short and the Euro has gone down all day. The daily low is your best shot at a move up but certainly not a guarantee. I would definitely have taken profit at the daily low but I am not sure I would have bought. I have the benefit of being able to watch all day. It is quite an advantage. I will repeat again, moving your stop up too quickly will kill your profits. You actually can go broke taking a win. Moving the stop is ok but you need to make sure that you hide it behind some level. Above the...
Thanks Chris - I appreciate your insight as always.

I did get 28 pips out of the trade (I entered at the daily open and had ridden it down - It's just it could have been nearer 68. I thought it may go to the previous day low, but couldn't watch it and so locked in what I had. You're rght, though I should have thought a little more about where to move the stop to increase the chance of getting the bigger move.
  • #3,273
  • May 9, 2013 8:21am May 9, 2013 8:21am
I have sold GJ to go along with my EJ sell. My entry on GJ is yesterday's London close. I wanted to sell the last week close and missed it both times it hit. Changing diapers is a constant distraction with twins. I think that the US and China both have a keen interest in keeping the Yen below 100 usd. I have been selling these pairs each time it hits a high level and it has worked out decently so far. If that is a bias I am guilty and may pay for it with a lack of gains today.
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  • #3,274
  • May 9, 2013 8:43am May 9, 2013 8:43am
Hi intelligent crew!

Short question:
Are you guys going to sell UJ when it gets to 100 - just because most likely that is what all the rest of the world is about to do or does anyone have any other idea about how we should (or shouldn't) play this?


Thanks
"Always be yourself " Batman
  • #3,275
  • May 9, 2013 9:50am May 9, 2013 9:50am
SP, may I ask, what kind of feelings if any do you have, when trade is on?

If trade is in plus, or near TP do you have some feelings, excitement.

How about if trade is near SL, or if you have second try and the trade is again in minus?

Have you been able to eliminate all feelings out of your trading and you just calmly execute your strategy?

Have you noticed any difference between now and the time you were aggressively compounding?

Feel free not to answer, if you don't want to discuss this kind of thing in the thread.
  • #3,276
  • May 9, 2013 10:36am May 9, 2013 10:36am
Quoting tdforex
SP, may I ask, what kind of feelings if any do you have, when trade is on? If trade is in plus, or near TP do you have some feelings, excitement. How about if trade is near SL, or if you have second try and the trade is again in minus? Have you been able to eliminate all feelings out of your trading and you just calmly execute your strategy? Have you noticed any difference between now and the time you were aggressively compounding? Feel free not to answer, if you don't want to discuss this kind of thing in the thread.
I feel the same things anyone else would. I take my hits calmly but I still hate it. I misread the price action in the yen pairs today and didn't exit when I could have. I took a 1.4% loss when I had a running gain at one point of about +.8%. I just take my entries and do the best I can to manage them correctly. I struggle with getting a bias and fighting the market sometimes just like anyone else will occasionally do. I stay calm and continue to execute my plan because I know with all the mistakes and losing trades that I will come out ahead in the long run. It is impossible to get it right all the time so I don't worry too much when I get it wrong. It is looking like the BOJ might have decided to shoot for 100 today. I was on the wrong side of that move so I will reload tomorrow and go back to work and maybe if things work out I can finish the week up plus five percent. If not I am up a little more than two percent for the week. You guys can do the math on two percent per week, I won't bore you with it.

The thing to focus on in trading is not to be right or even to win at trades. The thing to focus on is to take good trades. Take trades at places where you have an edge and protect your capital and things will work out just fine. Notice I am taking very small positions and rarely risk more than one percent on any trades. My goals are different from many of yours but I am very happy with eight or ten percent for the month. I am no longer aggressively compounding so I don't really need or care about the big twenty or thirty percent months any more. I can do it but I don't need the stress.

I find it hard to carry a loss for very long. I struggle with the numbers even as hard as I try to forget about the money and trade the price or the pips or the percentages. Of course I still look at the money and freak out when I see a position turning against me sometimes. On a trade like I had today in GJ and EJ I saw profits in the area of $2400.00 turn to a loss of $3900ish. It is not easy to watch but I won't exit a trade until I am definitely sure I am wrong. The buy program at 13:00 Eastern today did it for me and I couldn't get out of my positions quickly enough. When the trade goes against me by sixty pips or more I am glad to have gotten out with losers under twenty pips. This is the key to trading. Take your losses and don't look back.
  • #3,277
  • May 9, 2013 11:00am May 9, 2013 11:00am
My stops just got slipped huge. I had a small sell at the week high in GJ and that move slipped me huge. Down 1.1% for the week now so maybe you guys shouldn't do anything I do.
  • #3,278
  • May 9, 2013 11:05am May 9, 2013 11:05am
Quoting Seneca pilot
My stops just got slipped huge. I had a small sell at the week high in GJ and that move slipped me huge. Down 1.1% for the week now so maybe you guys shouldn't do anything I do.
These were Central bank moves and only with yen pairs. UJ, GJ and EJ all moved huge while EU and GU barely registered anything. This has all the classic footprints of the BOJ. Wait for London to close and for the thinner part of the US market and hammer the yen and bid the dollar. I was on the wrong side of this thing all day and should have my head examined. Back to work tomorrow. Right now I am going to play with my kids and contemplate my failings.
  • #3,279
  • May 9, 2013 11:27am May 9, 2013 11:27am
Quoting Seneca pilot
{quote} I feel the same things anyone else would. I take my hits calmly but I still hate it. to trading. Take your losses and don't look back.
I appreciate your honesty. We are all humans after all

That JPY -thing was really something today.

One other thing, not talking about todays price action with JPY.

You get your bias in the morning from price hitting that 3 hour before London line. When do you change your bias? Do you have some kind of rules, when you are fairly certain that trend has changed? I have been reading Mark Fisher lately, and he has his concept, but what are your rules / framerwork about the matter?
  • #3,280
  • Edited 12:42pm May 9, 2013 11:54am | Edited 12:42pm
Quoting tdforex
{quote} I appreciate your honesty. We are all humans after all That JPY -thing was really something today. One other thing, not talking about todays price action with JPY. You get your bias in the morning from price hitting that 3 hour before London line. When do you change your bias? Do you have some kind of rules, when you are fairly certain that trend has changed? I have been reading Mark Fisher lately, and he has his concept, but what are your rules / framerwork about the matter?
Well of course I would have bought GJ and EJ if the price action looked like up to me. Everything I saw right around the London close and the hour following looked like distribution to me. I can't really beat myself up too much as these moves happen and I didn't see it coming. I figured at some point that we were going to test 100 but the BOJ decided I guess there would be no tests but a clean break. I suppose the lesson here is to make sure you are not overleveraged and keep stops in.

The bias comes from the first trade of the day, what or where ever that is. I will keep that same bias until I am stopped out. If the first trade of the day is a short one I will stay short until taking profit or stopped out then I will reevaluate and go from there. The first trade today for me was short with EJ and GJ. Neither of them hit a level to long before hitting a level to sell. I really should have skipped today all together (easy to say in hindsight) I don't really trade NY all that well and since Europe was closed I should have just taken the day off.

Actually I just took another look and I did get a buy signal on EJ before the big rise but I was in GJ and ignored it because it didn't happen in GJ. I am going to have to take a hard look at today and spend some time writing in the journal this evening. I haven't had a losing day this size in quite a while. I normally only lose about two percent when I totally screw up.

These types of moves are very possible in forex any time of day so it is smart to always protect your capital.
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