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  • #24,141
  • May 8, 2013 10:27am May 8, 2013 10:27am
Quoting Connected
Guys on a narrow spread 'No Supply' down-bar on lower volume, this would normally close on the lows right? then we would wait for a close above this candle to go long, if trading with strength in the background, etc. Thanks in adv!
I would say yes. A no supply bar closes on the lows and, if it closes off of its low, than that will be a test, that is a mark down to attract(test the market if there are more sellers or not) sellers. If they do not sell, than the price bounce backs up, what makes the close off of its low.

But, you can find a more precise definition from the pdf with the signals descriptions. I don't know the exact post but it was posted, I think, last month.
Have a look on it, as it is quite useful.

Hope it helps a bit!
  • #24,142
  • May 8, 2013 10:39am May 8, 2013 10:39am
Hi thank you joaoborras for your help indeed that makes sense, if there is no supply we can expect higher prices/next up-bar closing above would trigger a long entry. I found some interesting volume articles http://www.mrswing.com/articles/Volu...ks_part_3.html and a few images:
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Tracking the Specialists.
  • #24,143
  • May 8, 2013 11:08am May 8, 2013 11:08am
No Supply - The prices have been marked down at the opening, the volume has been low and on that volume the market has closed on the highs.
There is no selling on this bar and is a sign of strength. The mark down on low volume shows no selling pressure. To close on the highs also shows no down side selling pressure.

Source: Tradeguider Manual
Tracking the Specialists.
  • #24,144
  • May 8, 2013 4:06pm May 8, 2013 4:06pm
Quoting Connected
No Supply - The prices have been marked down at the opening, the volume has been low and on that volume the market has closed on the highs. There is no selling on this bar and is a sign of strength. The mark down on low volume shows no selling pressure. To close on the highs also shows no down side selling pressure. Source: Tradeguider Manual
If you read the TG indicators guide you`ll see there are several variations of no supply, #6 in the guide shows it closing on the lows.
Seek not to change the world; seek only to change your mind about the world
  • #24,145
  • May 8, 2013 4:21pm May 8, 2013 4:21pm
Quoting SimpleDev
{quote} hmm I wouldn't expect a trend reversal on that volume, usually you want to see volume that is higher than the previous day(s) to actually change the trend, the bar you marked as selling climax is quite low. Granted the for time of day it is good volume, probably good for a retrace.. Here is 4h chart of EJ based on LO. At this point I doubt I will be taking any longs. 130.60 is monthly resistance, which we have failed to break 3 times. Now back around 4/16-ish I did post a chart of AJ where I highlighted that area on 4/15 as bullish, but...
Ah.. Your post was definitely insightful. Do you use multiple timeframe to justify your long/short bias?

For me, personally, it's quite hard. There are usually conflicting thoughts when I use multiple timeframes. I do agree that multiple timeframe does increase the probability, but like I said, it's too hard for me . Every timeframe present opportunities in itself so I try to stick with it. Just my style .

Fortunately for me, the trade did turn out quite success. After receiving a notification alert from MT4, I set, forget, and went back to watching a National Geographic's documentary on lions' pride.

Using TradingView's charts since I'm at work boohoo.

Edited: OOPS! Wrong area highlighted!! Please refer to the previous post for accuracy. [Sneaking a post at work (which is a first for me)]
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Yes, I do enjoy eating bananas. Very much.
  • #24,146
  • Edited 4:55pm May 8, 2013 4:43pm | Edited 4:55pm
Quoting ieatbanana
{quote} Ah.. Your post was definitely insightful. Do you use multiple timeframe to justify your long/short bias? For me, personally, it's quite hard. There are usually conflicting thoughts when I use multiple timeframes. I do agree that multiple timeframe does increase the probability, but like I said, it's too hard for me . Every timeframe present opportunities in itself so I try to stick with it. Just my style . Fortunately for me, the trade did turn out quite success. After receiving a notification alert from MT4, I set, forget, and went...
I had never seen Tradingview before. Thanks for posting. PnF as well!

Subscription is cheap too, very tempting.

Edit - This site is amazing!
  • #24,147
  • Edited 8:48pm May 8, 2013 8:46pm | Edited 8:48pm
Quoting gez40
{quote} If you read the TG indicators guide you`ll see there are several variations of no supply, #6 in the guide shows it closing on the lows.
Hi Gez #6 in the guide looks like a low volume up-bar = no-demand as it is a narrow range up-bar closing on the low on lower volume than the previous two bars, very possible I am wrong? Looking at it again it looks very much like it is closing on the low but is in fact a down bar closing lower than the previous candle bar....hmmm...Please can you share your thoughts? many thanks
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Tracking the Specialists.
  • #24,148
  • May 8, 2013 10:01pm May 8, 2013 10:01pm
Now we know why AU and AJ was treading water yesterday.
As SD pointed out, there was good SOS, I entered a long but after hours only waiting, I closed the position.
They was waiting for the news and yesterday, they took time to test and shake people out.
Amazing! Definitely, have to pay big attention to news as it is used to trigger the moves.
  • #24,149
  • May 8, 2013 10:13pm May 8, 2013 10:13pm
Quoting ieatbanana
{quote} Ah.. Your post was definitely insightful. Do you use multiple timeframe to justify your long/short bias? For me, personally, it's quite hard. There are usually conflicting thoughts when I use multiple timeframes. I do agree that multiple timeframe does increase the probability, but like I said, it's too hard for me . Every timeframe present opportunities in itself so I try to stick with it. Just my style . Fortunately for me, the trade did turn out quite success. After receiving a notification alert from MT4, I set, forget, and went...
Well first of all congrats to you and Jo yesterday and your successful EJ trade, always trade what you see!

I do my best to use all of the time frames available to me.. sometimes I get distracted and forget to check all of my time frames. But really 15,30,1h,4h and daily are the big ones to watch. As far as conflicting information, when you are looking at your different time frames the goal is to determine what the sessions did the previous day. Yesterday for example you saw that just before Asia EJ was bought. So when I look at the different time frames I am looking to see what the overall consent was during the London, US and Asia sessions.

Here is EJ for today, first chart is a 15m second is a 30m. They both show the same thing, just that 30m shows it a bit better.

Side note, I am still figuring things out, but take a look at the 15m chart, you can see how both London and US sold the pair (yellow) but if you look at Asia (red) it looks as if EJ was bought. The best setups are when you see US sell and then Asia sells. As for today I am thinking that Asia may try to drive up prices back up to yesterdays highs possibly to sell again?? We will see.
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  • #24,150
  • May 9, 2013 4:21am May 9, 2013 4:21am
Quoting Connected
{quote} Hi Gez #6 in the guide looks like a low volume up-bar = no-demand as it is a narrow range up-bar closing on the low on lower volume than the previous two bars, very possible I am wrong? Looking at it again it looks very much like it is closing on the low but is in fact a down bar closing lower than the previous candle bar....hmmm...Please can you share your thoughts? many thanks {image} {image}
I think you need to be careful not to over analyze everything, trying to read bar by bar will send you nuts...it did me. To be honest I no longer study VSA, not that I think it does n`t have legs, just that i`ve gone back to trend trading day charts which is how I first started. All the best with VSA though.
Seek not to change the world; seek only to change your mind about the world
  • #24,151
  • May 9, 2013 6:50am May 9, 2013 6:50am
I don't think I could find a better example of a set up if I tried. I took this NZD/USD short on Tuesday and closed the position when it hit the target later in the day. I normally end up holding PnF positions for at least one night so it was nice to see this one come good straight away.

Anywho, this is a great example of how i'm combining volume analysis, volume zones and point & figure.

The starting point for this trade was of course the creation of the high volume zone. Price pushed up and out of a previous zone between the 5th and 11th of April. As this was a whole weeks worth of data the volume is huge on the move up indicating some heavy selling. (Remember a PnF column can represent multiple days of data therefore the volume is cumulative). We get a reaction on the following bar which in turn gives a downside price objective of 0.8310 (which is yet to be hit).

1. This is the first signal at the 50% of the zone, a triple bottom sell. Fortunately I didn't see this in real time otherwise I would have been stung as it pushed up and tested through the 50% again.

2. This is a triple top buy signal. I did see this live but made the decision not to buy considering the high volume zone in the background. It did go for about 40 pips from what the entry price would have been but it did it with a nice spike in volume.

3. Further weakness had come in to the market and this was again proved as the market was knocked back down on the next column. We travelled sideways for the next few days before producing another sell signal at 4.

4. This is my favourite signal, it's a variation of a triple bottom with the middle column staggered from the outer columns that make up the pattern. With the high volume zone, 50% and further high volume on the break through attempt I was pretty confident in taking this short.

Entered the market at 0.8480 with my stop above the previous column at 0.8530. I've only been aiming for 1:1 lately whilst I try and achieve some consistency. Interestingly, the next reversal column can be considered a No Demand into the high of the previous high volume zone for a further short.
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  • #24,152
  • May 9, 2013 7:06am May 9, 2013 7:06am
Quoting Connected
{quote} Hi Gez #6 in the guide looks like a low volume up-bar = no-demand as it is a narrow range up-bar closing on the low on lower volume than the previous two bars, very possible I am wrong? Looking at it again it looks very much like it is closing on the low but is in fact a down bar closing lower than the previous candle bar....hmmm...Please can you share your thoughts? many thanks {image} {image}
Personally, I'd be very careful taking a long on such a bar. Looks more like a small upthrust to me. But as loads of people have said, it needs to be taken in the context of a whole chart.
  • #24,153
  • Edited 7:33am May 9, 2013 7:15am | Edited 7:33am
Quoting KinsaleForex
I don't think I could find a better example of a set up if I tried. I took this NZD/USD short on Tuesday and closed the position when it hit the target later in the day. I normally end up holding PnF positions for at least one night so it was nice to see this one come good straight away. Anywho, this is a great example of how i'm combining volume analysis, volume zones and point & figure. The starting point for this trade was of course the creation of the high volume zone. Price pushed up and out of a previous zone between the 5th and 11th of April....
Nice trade my friend and it's great to see your method coming together nicely. Good choice on target also because this pair isn't going lower than that easily because we are back at some decently strong daily support... you can see where the buyers entered yesterday at this support on the 1hr chart.

There is some overhead resistance also though at that 8460ish level shown on your chart seen on 1hr and 4hr charts so it should be interesting to see where SM decide to take this pair. We are currently sitting (as I type) at 8480ish which is 50% of a crazy wide range UHV daily bar (April 15th)...
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #24,154
  • May 9, 2013 7:21am May 9, 2013 7:21am
I'm short EJ, just thought i'd say it in real time instead of my usual after the fact posts. I'll post a follow up chart later on some stage.
  • #24,155
  • May 9, 2013 8:00am May 9, 2013 8:00am
Quoting SimpleDev
{quote} Well first of all congrats to you and Jo yesterday and your successful EJ trade, always trade what you see! I do my best to use all of the time frames available to me.. sometimes I get distracted and forget to check all of my time frames. But really 15,30,1h,4h and daily are the big ones to watch. As far as conflicting information, when you are looking at your different time frames the goal is to determine what the sessions did the previous day. Yesterday for example you saw that just before Asia EJ was bought. So when I look at the different...
My nap yesterday turned into a 10 hour sleep, haha. So I missed yesterday's trade. But you were right on! It did reach near the previous day's high and pushed down. However, the momentum going down isn't that great, imo.

There has already been four knocks at the 130.30.. Will resistance open the door? Who knows!

For GBPNZD, there seems to be lack of selling pressure, with slight increase of volume. Slight interest by SMs?

Time for work. Have a good trading day, everybody!
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Yes, I do enjoy eating bananas. Very much.
  • #24,156
  • May 9, 2013 8:01am May 9, 2013 8:01am
Quoting KinsaleForex
{quote} I had never seen Tradingview before. Thanks for posting. PnF as well! Subscription is cheap too, very tempting. Edit - This site is amazing!
Not a problem
Yes, I do enjoy eating bananas. Very much.
  • #24,157
  • May 9, 2013 8:32am May 9, 2013 8:32am
Quoting pres78
{quote} Nice trade my friend and it's great to see your method coming together nicely. Good choice on target also because this pair isn't going lower than that easily because we are back at some decently strong daily support... you can see where the buyers entered yesterday at this support on the 1hr chart. There is some overhead resistance also though at that 8460ish level shown on your chart seen on 1hr and 4hr charts so it should be interesting to see where SM decide to take this pair. We are currently sitting (as I type) at 8480ish which is...
Cheers mate, good to see you couldn't resist having a peak at the chart! I saw the levels you mention from the 1hr chart but hadn't looked at the daily, cheers for pointing those out.
  • #24,158
  • May 9, 2013 12:29pm May 9, 2013 12:29pm
Quoting KinsaleForex
I'm short EJ, just thought i'd say it in real time instead of my usual after the fact posts. I'll post a follow up chart later on some stage.
Just got a mobile notification of buying climax on EURJPY 15m. Hope you're not taking too much of a hit.
Yes, I do enjoy eating bananas. Very much.
  • #24,159
  • May 9, 2013 12:41pm May 9, 2013 12:41pm
Quoting ieatbanana
{quote} Just got a mobile notification of buying climax on EURJPY 15m. Hope you're not taking too much of a hit.
Stopped out a long time ago! Got that one completely wrong, i'm in work at the moment so i'll update with charts later as promised. Won't pretend it didn't happen!
  • #24,160
  • May 9, 2013 5:01pm May 9, 2013 5:01pm
Quoting pres78
{quote} Nice trade my friend and it's great to see your method coming together nicely. Good choice on target also because this pair isn't going lower than that easily because we are back at some decently strong daily support... you can see where the buyers entered yesterday at this support on the 1hr chart. There is some overhead resistance also though at that 8460ish level shown on your chart seen on 1hr and 4hr charts so it should be interesting to see where SM decide to take this pair. We are currently sitting (as I type) at 8480ish which is...

I hope this means your're.......

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