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AUD/USD

  • #58,081
  • May 8, 2013 8:42pm May 8, 2013 8:42pm
Hey George !

Bought ya Aussie back yet ?
  • #58,082
  • May 8, 2013 8:46pm May 8, 2013 8:46pm
Quoting dab
{quote} I'm confused, given we are less than 100 pips from the recent low (1.0155) and well less than 200 from the 1.0115 previous low, are you saying that in less than a week we will be 200 pips from one of these?
if the current output / fundamental from aud remains positively, i expect the lift from 1.0155 to 1.0382 [Last week's high] / 1.0425 [ One of the pull back resistance from fat marabuzo that started the sell off ]. This need time though, not happen over night.

The only way aud can rally is not just against usd, but mainly also other important trendy pairs like GBPAUD and EURAUD, open daily chart and see the volatility there, its much stronger than what we see on AUDUSD. Aud earlier weakness was also found on crosses which were trendy. Normally, 1 pip on usd can see about 2-3 pips on those crosses if both moving opposite direction which is what i found on the current market, that changes its correlation compared to year ago..

so if my target is just a 200 bounce from low its around 1.0350-1.0400.

Cunning min 1 aud tested support before the lift.\\


On the bigger time frame, the lift can be seen as a higher lo of 1.0155 compared to 1.0115. All these requires a fundamental calalyst, which is why no guarantee as on going development can screw up the out look and change course.
  • #58,083
  • May 8, 2013 9:00pm May 8, 2013 9:00pm
Thanks 5percent for the clarification. I don't have the experience predicting targets within certain timeframes but I can be very patient and am willing to wait for the next trip above 1.05 to start loading up short. In the meantime will happily do a few small good risk reward trades at support / resistance.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #58,084
  • May 8, 2013 9:05pm May 8, 2013 9:05pm
Before up I see a down to 1.2064 or lower
  • #58,085
  • May 8, 2013 9:06pm May 8, 2013 9:06pm
Quoting iqyu5an
News in 2 minutes {quote} *** in blue color {image}
OMG... i'm late again !
i don't expect your analysis is here.
hi, mate... very difficult to find you now ? hehe...


regards,
andan.
  • #58,086
  • Edited 9:47pm May 8, 2013 9:17pm | Edited 9:47pm
Quoting dab
Thanks 5percent for the clarification. I don't have the experience predicting targets within certain timeframes but I can be very patient and am willing to wait for the next trip above 1.05 to start loading up short. In the meantime will happily do a few small good risk reward trades at support / resistance.
let me share a some chart to keep things simple.

it's important that the base of 23.6 is secured and contained a close above 23.6 with at least 2 days of data for target of 38.2 to 61.8 on a common retracement.

immediate downtrend pressure will come in at 38.2 and then 61.8. Good rally may have a full retracement or a lower high as seen.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud usd.png Size: 89 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: indirect reversal downtrend.png Size: 30 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: direct reversal from downtrend.png Size: 29 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: BO 123.png Size: 25 KB
  • #58,087
  • May 8, 2013 9:21pm May 8, 2013 9:21pm
hmm what is your current position rigth now bro ?


Quoting 5percent
{quote} let me share a some chart to keep things simple. it's important that the base of 23.6 is secured and contained a close above 23.6 with at least 2 days of data for target of 38.2 to 61.8 on a common retracement. immediate downtrend pressure will come in at 38.2 and then 61.8. Good rally may have a full retracement of a lower high as seen. {image} {image} {image} {image}
not euphoria follower
  • #58,088
  • May 8, 2013 9:25pm May 8, 2013 9:25pm
hi all, continue to long aus/usd ? tp 1.0253 ? or higher
  • #58,089
  • May 8, 2013 9:27pm May 8, 2013 9:27pm
Quoting 5percent
{quote} let me share a some chart to keep things simple. it's important that the base of 23.6 is secured and contained a close above 23.6 with at least 2 days of data for target of 38.2 to 61.8 on a common retracement. immediate downtrend pressure will come in at 38.2 and then 61.8. Good rally may have a full retracement of a lower high as seen. {image} {image} {image} {image}
previous march's rally, if going accordingly to range's fibo retracement on the bigger tf.

Assuming the black part is the future. just pay attention to the fibo of 38.2 , 61.8 and lower high where pull back occurs.

Before it went up, price lifted from 23.6 to 38.2 and then re-tested 23.6 region before heading higher.

anyway, aud is still on down-trend line pressure until breaks and contained.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: previous rally.png Size: 57 KB
  • #58,090
  • May 8, 2013 9:30pm May 8, 2013 9:30pm
Quoting Xenovia
god dammit, the sudden drop before rise triggered a sell for me ><;

That drop was due to the firmer Chinese CPI which flashed up on the screens secs before the Unemployment data .
  • #58,091
  • May 8, 2013 9:31pm May 8, 2013 9:31pm
Quoting iqyu5an
hmm what is your current position rigth now bro ? {quote}
i am long aud mostly on bigger time frame of daily or weekly usually after ny close, of range's support, if range support is broken like last year to 0.94 i won't long till a base is confirmed. Meanwhile, i only build shorts on 1.05-1.06.

In between i only go for short-term burst trade on intra-day, else i build longs on support upon seeing demand as i don't like negative swaps. but this long is dangerous as its on support before the news, prone to downside breakout if data was negative.
  • #58,092
  • May 8, 2013 9:57pm May 8, 2013 9:57pm
Quoting profit taker
hi all, continue to long aus/usd ? tp 1.0253 ? or higher
yes, reach first tp . sold all. waiting to enter when price is low
  • #58,093
  • May 8, 2013 9:58pm May 8, 2013 9:58pm
Quoting iqyu5an
hmm what is your current position rigth now bro ? {quote}
Master .......Long Time no see.................
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #58,094
  • May 8, 2013 10:00pm May 8, 2013 10:00pm
Quoting 5percent
{quote} let me share a some chart to keep things simple. it's important that the base of 23.6 is secured and contained a close above 23.6 with at least 2 days of data for target of 38.2 to 61.8 on a common retracement. immediate downtrend pressure will come in at 38.2 and then 61.8. Good rally may have a full retracement or a lower high as seen. {image} {image} {image} {image}
That is so Kool how you post................I like all the post it's........
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #58,095
  • May 8, 2013 10:02pm May 8, 2013 10:02pm
what a master ?

was here and there everyday brada..... keep in touch ...
Quoting forexalien
{quote} Master .......Long Time no see.................
not euphoria follower
  • #58,096
  • May 8, 2013 10:18pm May 8, 2013 10:18pm
Quoting Xenovia
god dammit, the sudden drop before rise triggered a sell for me ><;
lol...me too..was caught...sigh....
can be found where TROUBLE is
  • #58,097
  • May 8, 2013 10:24pm May 8, 2013 10:24pm
Quoting iqyu5an
what a master ? was here and there everyday brada..... keep in touch ... {quote}
Market short - Soros is either in that club or was bailing longs - the negative euphoria has been discounted and now is answering to positive news.

watch for 1.0250 -60 to pop the stops
  • #58,098
  • May 8, 2013 11:17pm May 8, 2013 11:17pm
is soros leading the shorting or market is temporary retracement ? what next ? all views are welcome.
  • #58,099
  • May 9, 2013 12:48am May 9, 2013 12:48am
Quoting profit taker
is soros leading the shorting or market is temporary retracement ? what next ? all views are welcome.

Buy the dip or wait for TL break

rate cut priced in before the decision (as it usually is).

Commentary over here is that the cut was a big surprise.

This is BS, retail hurting and have been wanting it for quite some time.

I'm thinking we are heading for Bullish H&S if that TL goes
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusddaily.png Size: 39 KB
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #58,100
  • May 9, 2013 12:52am May 9, 2013 12:52am
G Day... papa........

start seeing again bullish bamm or bullish dragon... but in lower TF ( 1 minute or m 5 ) sometimes it's just a noise or little volatility before europe open... let see papa..

yesterday... sterling broke the similar TL to the north sea jazz festival aniway....


kiss and hug for isabelle from me and my wife...



major setup link

Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} Buy the dip or wait for TL break rate cut priced in before the decision (as it usually is). Commentary over here is that the cut was a big surprise. This is BS, retail hurting and have been wanting it for quite some time. I'm thinking we are heading for Bullish H&S if that TL goes {image}
not euphoria follower
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