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Ramblings of a Forex Junkie

  • #3,181
  • May 7, 2013 7:09pm May 7, 2013 7:09pm
Quoting 4x.zombie
{quote} Hi 60mm, >>Scalable. So true. Benoit Mandlebrot, the father of fractals, put that into our numerical lexicon. I think that phenom is a lot more useful than fibs. (it's just what works for me). >> random events producing repeatable patterns True again, but as stated, it does not mitigate my proviso that human behavior (purposeful, not random) also produces the same. Bye for now. PS. Tubguy, hose down that bean bag!

Quote
PS. Tubguy, hose down that bean bag!

Wore it out this last weekend. Gotta find a new one. Plenty of beer and Cheeto's though.
  • #3,182
  • May 7, 2013 7:11pm May 7, 2013 7:11pm
[quote=Seneca pilot;6663864]
Quoting tubguy
{quote} Felt in the summer? Won't that cause a ruckuss.
Not when your the real deal SP. I can rope a rats left testicle with a sewing thread.

Well..........maybe not that good, but close
  • #3,183
  • May 7, 2013 7:16pm May 7, 2013 7:16pm
Quoting 4x.zombie
{quote} SP, you are a Philistine, a barbarian, a vulgarian. Therefore I have vouched for you. If you had known it was up, down, up, down, you would not now be the father of triplets at age 57. The Buddha said, "Stiff dick has no conscience". He did not reference the brain.

Quote
The Buddha said, "Stiff dick has no conscience". He did not reference the brain.

That explains why the girls were always pissed at me. Maybe why I'm still single too!
  • #3,184
  • May 7, 2013 8:33pm May 7, 2013 8:33pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
{quote} The long trade was based on EU coming down into the area of the NY and London closes/daily open. After the German news was good that trade shot up into profit in the area of the previous day high. After a .382ish retracement which would have been bought by many expecting a breakout of the top (follow through from the good news). All the stops from the fib traders and the others who bought earlier would be parked just under the low. once the previous day high rejected, those stops fueled the fire nicely to push down into the base of the original...


Got it. Because of the noobs you could max out your profit potential. Love it...
  • #3,185
  • May 7, 2013 10:25pm May 7, 2013 10:25pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
{quote} I agree, an excellent post and worthy of a vouch.
Thank you Chris. That means a lot coming from you.
  • #3,186
  • May 7, 2013 10:39pm May 7, 2013 10:39pm
Quoting 60minuteman
{quote} last bar closed down, most likely, next bar will be down... my favourite strategy by far {image}
Brilliant.

Mods deleting avi's now? How is one to bear without an avatar? The joy of having those few pixels illuminating next to your username with a picture of your choice... My balls begin to tingle just thinking about it.

Christ only knows how I'm not banned from this godforsaken place yet. I feel the day is near however. Although I do fear KK007 will fall down the rabbit hole should I ever depart.
What is any ocean but a multitude of drops?
  • #3,187
  • May 7, 2013 10:51pm May 7, 2013 10:51pm
Take care your own trading first...
Don't behave as if you had been very successful and act as a Savior.
If you are a poor loser, what is the benefit of teaching other?
Just by keep posting winning trades on FF and earn a lot vounchers cannot help you to be a successful trader.
Quoting Xhale
{quote} Brilliant. Mods deleting avi's now? How is one to bear without an avatar? The joy of having those few pixels illuminating next to your username with a picture of your choice... My balls begin to tingle just thinking about it. Christ only knows how I'm not banned from this godforsaken place yet. I feel the day is near however. Although I do fear KK007 will fall down the rabbit hole should I ever depart.
  • #3,188
  • Edited 11:49pm May 7, 2013 10:54pm | Edited 11:49pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
{quote} Green and red are previous day high and weekly open. Purple is last week close. The yellow lines are the London and NY closes. I think when I took that screen shot I had already moved the London to todays close but the NY close was still in place from yesterday. My color key is green for daily highs and lows, red for week open, purple for week close, yellow for session closes, and light blue for weekly high and low. I don't change these colors for any reason because I like to know at a glance where price is in relation to an important level....
Thanks, my lines are at different places possibly due to broker feed and GMT offset. You must have mentioned this before but the problem is your posts are lost in midst of these 160 pages and 3,186 posts, unless they are noted on Page 1.

One last question about the lines: what is your definition of London Close? I have 3:00amET (8am local time) as London Open and 5pmET as New York Close.

This 24hr broker clock might help some people,
http://mc24.ch/mclock15.swf (which market participants are awake and active shown in orange)
http://www.stocktime.ru/en/razrez8.swf
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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No longer trading forex. Looking for full time job.
  • #3,189
  • May 7, 2013 10:57pm May 7, 2013 10:57pm
Quoting mmaker
{quote} Thanks, my lines are at different places possibly due to broker feed and GMT offset. You must have mentioned this before but the problem is your posts are lost in midst of these 160 pages and 3,186 posts, unless they are noted on Page 1. One last question about the lines: what is your definition of London Close? I have 3:00amET (8am local time) as London Open and 5pmET as New York Close.
As far as I know all financial markets close at 5PM in their local time zone. Currently that is noon in the US eastern time zone for London close.
  • #3,190
  • May 7, 2013 11:09pm May 7, 2013 11:09pm
Quoting kk007
Take care your own trading first... Don't behave as if you had been very successful and act as a Savior. If you are a poor loser, what is the benefit of teaching other? Just by keep posting winning trades on FF and earn a lot vounchers cannot help you to be a successful trader. {quote}
Dont hit your head on the way down
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: alice-falling-down-rabbit-hole1.jpeg Size: 140 KB
What is any ocean but a multitude of drops?
  • #3,191
  • May 8, 2013 12:39am May 8, 2013 12:39am
Quoting Seneca pilot
{quote} I explained a little bit about this way back. There are so many posts at this point it would be impossible to not miss some things. I spend thousands of hours each year looking at charts. I am rather good at spotting patterns and locating good trading opportunities. I am not a mathematician so I must rely on my eye to find good set ups. The highs and lows jumped out at me after working with pivots years ago. I got sick of my pivot levels getting crushed and watching price turn at the prior day high or low so I threw out the pivots and went...
Chris,
Can you look into the daily London currency fix times? The Bank of England fixing is used as the reference rate in International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA) agreements for the swaps market, and by FX dealers for customer compliance and transactions. I will do some research later today if you're not familiar. I believe the twice a day fix should have impact just like the open and close prices.

http://www.kathylien.com/site/month-...th-end-fixings
"Fixings are done at set times during the day and differ for each instrument but the most popular fixing time is at the end of day in the U.K., which is know as the London Fix. This occurs at 16:00 London Time or 12:00 NY Time. Usually portfolio managers will either leave or give orders to dealing desks to be transacted at the fixing time and price."

"There are several daily currency fixings in various financial centers, but the two most important are the 8:55 a.m. Tokyo time and the 4 p.m. London time fixings. A currency fixing is a set time each day when the prices of currencies for commercial transactions are set, or fixed.
From a trading standpoint, these fixings may see a flurry of trading in a particular currency pair in the run-up (generally 15 to 30 minutes) to the fixing time that abruptly ends exactly at the fixing time. A sharp rally in a specific currency pair on fixing-related buying, for example, may suddenly come to an end at the fixing time and see the price quickly drop back to where it was before."
No longer trading forex. Looking for full time job.
  • #3,192
  • May 8, 2013 1:33am May 8, 2013 1:33am
mmaker

this is the one i use , and seems to be working well

http://fxtrade.oanda.com/analysis/market-hours
Logic will take you from A to B Imagination will take you anywhere (A.E)
  • #3,193
  • May 8, 2013 1:38am May 8, 2013 1:38am
Quoting mmaker
{quote} Thanks, my lines are at different places possibly due to broker feed and GMT offset. You must have mentioned this before but the problem is your posts are lost in midst of these 160 pages and 3,186 posts, unless they are noted on Page 1. One last question about the lines: what is your definition of London Close? I have 3:00amET (8am local time) as London Open and 5pmET as New York Close. This 24hr broker clock might help some people, http://mc24.ch/mclock15.swf (which market participants are awake and active shown in orange) {image}...

mmaker, d/l a demo of the oanda mt4 and you basically see what Chris sees.
  • #3,194
  • May 8, 2013 1:49am May 8, 2013 1:49am
Quoting Seneca pilot
{quote} The long trade was based on EU coming down into the area of the NY and London closes/daily open. After the German news was good that trade shot up into profit in the area of the previous day high. After a .382ish retracement which would have been bought by many expecting a breakout of the top (follow through from the good news). All the stops from the fib traders and the others who bought earlier would be parked just under the low. once the previous day high rejected, those stops fueled the fire nicely to push down into the base of the original...
I understand now. I know this is getting stale, but I am trying to get my head around the following:

1. You did not fade the weekly close, what was your reasoning behind not fading it (price certainly didn't)?
2. I have my weekly open at 1.31190 but it is showing up right next to the daily high on your chart @ 1.31238 (not sure if my eyes are playing tricks here)
3. I'm sure you were aware up the upcoming German news before the trade. What would you have done if the news had not been positive? I know this wasn't really a news trade but much of the upside on this long position was due to good news from ole Deutschland...
  • #3,195
  • Edited 3:13am May 8, 2013 2:56am | Edited 3:13am
I shorted EURUSD at 1.31152 where there is cluster of SP's lines on my TradeStation platform. I think you should see the same lines on MT4. Took second short entry at 1.30165.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: EUR.png Size: 35 KB
Attached Image
No longer trading forex. Looking for full time job.
  • #3,196
  • Edited 3:53am May 8, 2013 3:21am | Edited 3:53am
About this EURJPY long trade that Seneca has in his myfxbook.

Long is from previous day London close about 129,52.

What is target, 130,37 prev day high?

What is the SL according Senecas style. I was just wondering that day open is at 129,66. Isn't that a barrier for good move upwards?

EDIT: I think the correct target is week open 130,04.
  • #3,197
  • May 8, 2013 3:37am May 8, 2013 3:37am
Quoting tdforex
About this EURJPY long trade that Seneca has in his myfxbook. Long is from previous day London close about 129,52. What is target, 130,37 prev day high? What is the SL according Senecas style. I was just wondering that day open is at 129,66. Isn't that a barrier for good move upwards?
13037 is roughly between prev week high and prev day high. SL is about 25% 5 day ATR (I think) - someone correct me if I'm wrong.

I'm actually short on the EJ from 1.2965 - so we'll see which way it's gonna fall

Edit - I know SP says he is trading the closes more as we not in a clear trend - but I'm not sure what rules he uses for entry.
  • #3,198
  • May 8, 2013 5:08am May 8, 2013 5:08am
I have closed the EJ trade. The buying seems to have dried up at the weekly open. My weekly open price is 130.03. This may get through but I am conservative. I expected a hard move through this price as it has been used yesterday as well. The target was initially the previous day high at 131.359 I just use a nice round 350.
  • #3,199
  • May 8, 2013 5:09am May 8, 2013 5:09am
Quoting mmaker
{quote} Chris, Can you look into the daily London currency fix times? The Bank of England fixing is used as the reference rate in International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA) agreements for the swaps market, and by FX dealers for customer compliance and transactions. I will do some research later today if you're not familiar. I believe the twice a day fix should have impact just like the open and close prices. http://www.kathylien.com/site/month-...th-end-fixings "Fixings are done at set times during...
This might be a fun project for you. I know about the fixes (currency and gold) but have never figured out a way to trade them. I have enough lines on my charts.
  • #3,200
  • May 8, 2013 5:12am May 8, 2013 5:12am
Quoting tdforex
About this EURJPY long trade that Seneca has in his myfxbook. Long is from previous day London close about 129,52. What is target, 130,37 prev day high? What is the SL according Senecas style. I was just wondering that day open is at 129,66. Isn't that a barrier for good move upwards? EDIT: I think the correct target is week open 130,04.
The initial target was the prior day high but I set my alarm for five minutes before the news and manage things live around the week open. I didn't like the price movement at the week open so I closed. Just before news I tighten the stop to BE just in case.
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