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Ramblings of a Forex Junkie

  • #3,121
  • May 7, 2013 2:23pm May 7, 2013 2:23pm
Quoting biDc
To put things in perspective.. 3 trades. 2 losses. 1 win 33% hit rate? Still positive {image}
I told you even the tough days will work out if you hang in there. Even a terrible day with three losers before the win and you are only a very small loser for the day. You are doing really great. You seem to have a good grasp on what is needed.
  • #3,122
  • May 7, 2013 2:24pm May 7, 2013 2:24pm
Quoting landsat
33% win rate ..... free advice look for a full time job ... or a better signal .... i dont think anyone makes money with 33% win rate ...
Not saying it will always be 33%. This is n=1

I'm just putting things into perspective showing you can still come out positive with lower hit rate.

You should check out the thread Building an Equity Millipede.
  • #3,123
  • May 7, 2013 2:25pm May 7, 2013 2:25pm
Quoting landsat
33% win rate ..... free advice look for a full time job ... or a better signal .... i dont think anyone makes money with 33% win rate ...
You are talking out of school here. Go back and look at his last weeks trades. I think these were only his second and third losses for the past several days of trading. 33% was for today only.
  • #3,124
  • May 7, 2013 2:26pm May 7, 2013 2:26pm
Quoting Xhale
{quote} not everyone is cut out to be a trader.
I would say hardly anyone is cut out to be a trader. There are plenty of profitable methods, most people will find a way to screw them up. Picking the trades they like instead of taking all the set-ups, moving stops to b/e too soon, abandoning the method after the inevitable 4-5 trade losing streak etc...
  • #3,125
  • May 7, 2013 2:26pm May 7, 2013 2:26pm
SP

i really respect your work , im just challenging on the MM ...." Low leverage is essential to longevity in trading" with all your respect this is crap , for non-working system yes this is right ....just do the math on excel SP ....60% winrate 2/1 , use your leverage at full
Logic will take you from A to B Imagination will take you anywhere (A.E)
  • #3,126
  • May 7, 2013 2:28pm May 7, 2013 2:28pm
Quoting landsat
SP i really respect your work , im just challenging on the MM ...." Low leverage is essential to longevity in trading" with all your respect this is crap , for non-working system yes this is right ....just do the mathon excel SP ....60% winrate 2/1 , use your leverage at full
You couldn't be more wrong. I'll just leave it at that.
  • #3,127
  • May 7, 2013 2:31pm May 7, 2013 2:31pm
Quoting landsat
SP i really respect your work , im just challenging on the MM ...." Low leverage is essential to longevity in trading" with all your respect this is crap , for non-working system yes this is right ....just do the math on excel SP ....60% winrate 2/1 , use your leverage at full
At 60% win rate you will have plenty of times where you lose 3 trades in a row. Now lets say you risk 20% of your account on each trade, 3 losers in a row you are now down to 40% of your capital.
  • #3,128
  • May 7, 2013 2:31pm May 7, 2013 2:31pm
Quoting threei
{quote} I would say hardly anyone is cut out to be a trader. There are plenty of profitable methods, most people will find a way to screw them up. Picking the trades they like instead of taking all the set-ups, moving stops to b/e too soon, abandoning the method after the inevitable 4-5 trade losing streak etc...
Based on most of the statistics out there (from 1 to 5% actually profitable) I would agree.

Funny thing is when people pick their best "looking" set ups is when the failures are most spectacular.
  • #3,129
  • May 7, 2013 2:34pm May 7, 2013 2:34pm
Quoting threei
{quote} At 60% win rate you will have plenty of times where you lose 3 trades in a row. Now lets say you risk 20% of your account on each trade, 3 losers in a row you are now down to 40% of your capital.
i talking about trading ..... not russian roulet .... 20% of risk per trade ???? with a 20 pips SL how many leverage it takes .... my max leverage is 50
Logic will take you from A to B Imagination will take you anywhere (A.E)
  • #3,130
  • May 7, 2013 2:39pm May 7, 2013 2:39pm
Am I too conservative for my hit rate? Probably.

Could I comfortably risk two percent per trade? Yes.

Could I have made seven percent today? Yes.

Do I care? NO. I made plenty of money and I can go to sleep with an open position because I don't really care if it wins or loses. Can you say that if you have ten percent of your account at risk?

I don't need to risk a big percentage. I am done aggressively compounding. My income is comfortable now and I have good investments.
  • #3,131
  • May 7, 2013 2:41pm May 7, 2013 2:41pm
Quoting landsat
{quote} i talking about trading ..... not russian roulet .... 20% of risk per trade ???? with a 20 pips SL how many leverage it takes .... my max leverage is 50
You are talking to people on this forum who have access to 400/1 leverage. You have to be careful to whom you say, max up your leverage.
  • #3,132
  • May 7, 2013 2:45pm May 7, 2013 2:45pm
Quoting landsat
{quote} i talking about trading ..... not russian roulet .... 20% of risk per trade ???? with a 20 pips SL how many leverage it takes .... my max leverage is 50
20 pips at 50:1 is 10% risk per trade. 3 losers in a row you are down to 70% of your capital, 5 in a row ( and I assure you that it will happen) you have now lost half your account.
  • #3,133
  • May 7, 2013 2:47pm May 7, 2013 2:47pm
In fact the risk % engaged should be based on your system performance , not on just by the book 2% risk crap that we can read everywhere ..... the one that the 95% trader who lose are using .... 2% risk dont protect your capital 7% risk dont destroy your capital the quality of your entry signal do the job ... not the "confortable 2%" ....
i will not continue on this subject ... i got your point still the same old losing song ....."2% risk per trade" ....
Logic will take you from A to B Imagination will take you anywhere (A.E)
  • #3,134
  • May 7, 2013 2:53pm May 7, 2013 2:53pm
Quoting landsat
In fact the risk % engaged should be based on your system performance , not on just by the book 2% risk crap that we can read everywhere ..... the one that the 95% trader who lose are using .... 2% risk dont protect your capital 7% risk dont destroy your capital the quality of your entry signal do the job ... not the "confortable 2%" .... i will not continue on this subject ... i got your point still the same old losing song ....."2% risk per trade" ....
I don't risk two percent I risk less than one. I am as far from losing as you can get. I am well aware of how to maximize risk based on risk of ruin statistics. I am no longer compounding and have no need to risk anywhere near one full percent to make a rather comfortable living.
  • #3,135
  • May 7, 2013 2:58pm May 7, 2013 2:58pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
{quote} I don't risk two percent I risk less than one. I am as far from losing as you can get. I am well aware of how to maximize risk based on risk of ruin statistics. I am no longer compounding and have no need to risk anywhere near one full percent to make a rather comfortable living.
SP

relax dont take it so personal , dont need to justify yourself .... just talking MM here nothing against you .. im cool ....
Logic will take you from A to B Imagination will take you anywhere (A.E)
  • #3,136
  • May 7, 2013 3:03pm May 7, 2013 3:03pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
Stops gave in, next target is the base of the German news bar. {image}
hmm, so this was a news trade of sorts, or?
  • #3,137
  • May 7, 2013 3:09pm May 7, 2013 3:09pm
Quoting fxterrapin
{quote} hmm, so this was a news trade of sorts, or?
Not really just where I expected support to come in to the market. The stops were built up just under the .382 retracement that I am sure so many traders bought expecting a breakout to the up side.
  • #3,138
  • Edited 4:52pm May 7, 2013 3:13pm | Edited 4:52pm
Quoting landsat
SP i really respect your work , im just challenging on the MM ...." Low leverage is essential to longevity in trading" with all your respect this is crap , for non-working system yes this is right ....just do the math on excel SP ....60% winrate 2/1 , use your leverage at full
Chris, let me try...

The math cannot tell you WHEN the losses will occur.
You can figure out your win rate for your method with fairly good accuracy, however, nothing will tell you the distribution of those losses. If you have enough consecutive losses coupled with max leverage, you can get wiped out, easily.

Now, you might get lucky in the beginning of your trading and have the string of losses distributed among the winners in a way that you "overcome" the odds. This initial winning streak then (could) provide enough buffer if later on the losses occur consecutively.

However, the bet you are making here is that you will not start out with a consecutive string of losses. Far from a sure thing!

Plenty of traders are never heard from again to tell this story and it happens more often than you can imagine. If you are serious about making an income from trading you must take the above fact seriously.
  • #3,139
  • May 7, 2013 3:16pm May 7, 2013 3:16pm
Quoting landsat
{quote} SP relax dont take it so personal , dont need to justify yourself .... just talking MM here nothing against you .. im cool ....
The problem is I have no idea what you know about trading. I do know that a lot of the readers of this thread are struggling and or losing traders trying to find a way out of their struggle. You cannot tell someone with low or poor experience trading to lever up because I am teaching something that wins sixty percent of the time. The two percent rule of thumb is good for newer traders because it makes it virtually impossible to blow an account as long as the method they are trading is decent. Once someone learns what they are doing I have no problem with taking larger risks. I compounded aggressively for three years but I knew what I was doing. Do you think a new trader is going to be able to stick with a method if they lose fifteen percent of their account on three trades? Three losers in a row is common with win rates up to eighty percent. It happens all the time. The win loss distribution is random and can be all over the map. I have had runs of five, six, and even seven losers several times over the years trading exactly what I am teaching here. I have also had runs of ten or more winners. I still won't count on that happening when I enter my next trade.
  • #3,140
  • May 7, 2013 3:24pm May 7, 2013 3:24pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
{quote} Not really just where I expected support to come in to the market. The stops were built up just under the .382 retracement that I am sure so many traders bought expecting a breakout to the up side.
Please bear with me here Chris...

I thought this was a 0:00 EST level trade. Man, now you are bringing the .382 fib into the mix. How exactly did you know that the stops were built up under that level? Begging for enlightenment.
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