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Ramblings of a Forex Junkie

  • #3,101
  • May 7, 2013 11:49am May 7, 2013 11:49am
Quoting Seneca pilot
I have found nothing else that works consistently over a long period of trades and believe me over the past eleven years I have tried it all.
I am not looking for a method with certainty or stress-free. I have mentally passed this stage now. I ask you the question purely out of curiosity. Thank you very much for your sharing. So many people (even on this thread) are still thinking that they can pick up any method on FF and can win with it, as far as they have 1. the discipline 2. right money management (incl. R:R), and 3. sufficient practising hours..
  • #3,102
  • May 7, 2013 11:52am May 7, 2013 11:52am
Quoting mmaker
{quote} How to read this picture? What time were the trades taken and are these based on daily lines, which ones? Thanks!
EJ Long from the 3hr before london open - closed that up near the previous week high.
Then reversed it from the weekly high down and closed a little passed the previous day london close.

EU - Same - went long from retest of 3 hour london open

http://charts.mql5.com/1/495/eurjpy-...orporation.png

http://charts.mql5.com/1/495/eurusd-...orporation.png
  • #3,103
  • May 7, 2013 11:54am May 7, 2013 11:54am
Quoting mmaker
{quote} I was studying Seneca Pilot's posts and I wrote down the post# and page# for reference. Just yesterday there were 205 pages, but today there is only 155 pages. I use the same forum default setting of 20 posts per page, so obviously 50 pages of posts were deleted/extracted. I meant to say that the thread will be easier to read now without all the junk. I don't really know what or who's posts were deleted, but it's strange to find 50 pages missing.
No quite.. It has been 15 post/page for years for me... Now it is 20 post/page
A few days ago, there are about 200 pages (x15 post/page) for this thread.
Now it is about 150 pages (x20 post/page) for this thread...
Therefore, I think there is no deletion...
  • #3,104
  • May 7, 2013 11:56am May 7, 2013 11:56am
Quoting kk007
As SP has explained eariler, the first important thing is to have a method with odd in our favor and some predictive power. Without that, you will lose even if you use 1:10 risk:reward.
First important thing SP mentioned is "The trader must learn to take losses". In trying to be helpful I suggest you contemplate this for some time until you are comfortable with the meaning and the emotions that follow.


Quoting kk007
This is easy to do in hindsight: If you take 10 pip profit and then the setup actually offer you 20 pip max, you can say you did not let your profit run to full. If you don't take a 10 pip profit to expect more and then the price move back to BE, you can say you was too greedy. If you cut your loss quick at -5 pip and price move then toward +50 pip profit. You may not see cutting loss quick is a good decision.
If you are properly disciplined you can learn a lot from hindsight.


Quoting kk007
Not mean to offend you, but sound to me you are having some "hearsay" ideas in trading. Have you actually got consistent result with a number of methods?
Pot meet kettle...


All in the name of trying to open your mind a bit. It seems to me 007 you need to make a choice on how you approach trading. A difficult choice.
  • #3,105
  • May 7, 2013 11:57am May 7, 2013 11:57am
Quoting Xhale
{quote} Well I did warn you Chris......
Luckily, Chris is not as defensive as you. I am so glad that he is so generously in sharing his experience with me..
  • #3,106
  • May 7, 2013 12:05pm May 7, 2013 12:05pm
Quoting TantumVerum
{quote} First important thing SP mentioned is "The trader must learn to take losses". In trying to be helpful I suggest you contemplate this for some time until you are comfortable with the meaning and the emotions that follow. {quote} If you are properly disciplined you can learn a lot from hindsight. {quote} Pot meet kettle... All in the name of trying to open your mind a bit. It seems to me 007 you need to make a choice on how you approach trading. A difficult choice.
Yes, first important thing in relation to discipline/mental is "The trader must learn to take losses", as SP said.
But the first important thing in relation to the validity of a method is another thing.
By the way.. do you have enough knowledge to judge my discipline or approach to trading??????
Don't pretend to have known everything please!
Are you those kind of people believing that as far as you have the discipline, any method will works?
  • #3,107
  • May 7, 2013 12:07pm May 7, 2013 12:07pm
Quoting kk007
{quote} Luckily, Chris is not as defensive as you. I am so glad that he is so generously in sharing his experience with me..
Yes Chris is much kinder than me, and has far more patience.

Glad or not.... It won't do anything.

You will never make a living in this business. Take my word for it. Your kind never does. Despite what all the motivational speakers tell you, not everyone is cut out to be a trader. You need to have certain qualities ingrained within you. Qualities that cannot be learned. The same thing goes for poker and similar ventures. I have plenty of friends who are very successful businessmen, but wouldn't be able to trade to save their lives. On the other side of the spectrum, I would fail miserably at running a business but trading suits me very well. We need to play our strengths.... not indulge in fantasy.

Although harsh, I've given you the best advice of anyone here. Devote your time to other "money making" ventures where you stand a chance. Or spend a few more hundreds hours on FF, I could care less. At the very least, you have the quality of persistence. Your just applying it in the wrong field. As I told you before, find another way to make money. There are plenty. I'm sure other people will pat you on the back in here, but I don't have it in me to lie. Sorry.
What is any ocean but a multitude of drops?
  • #3,108
  • May 7, 2013 12:09pm May 7, 2013 12:09pm
Quoting Xhale
{quote} Yes Chris is much kinder than me, and has far more patience. Glad or not.... It won't do anything. You will never make a living in this business. Take my word for it. Your kind never does. Despite what all the motivational speakers tell you, not everyone is cut out to be a trader. You need to have certain qualities ingrained within you. Qualities that cannot be learned. The same thing goes for poker and similar ventures. I have plenty of friends who are very successful businessmen, but wouldn't be able to trade to save their lives. On the...
You will never make a living in this business. Take my word for it. Your kind never does. Despite what all the motivational speakers tell you, not everyone is cut out to be a trader. You need to have certain qualities ingrained within you. Qualities that cannot be learned. The same thing goes for poker and similar ventures. I have plenty of friends who are very successful businessmen, but wouldn't be able to trade to save their lives. On the other side of the spectrum, I would fail miserably at running a business but trading suits me very well. We need to play our strengths.... not indulge in fantasy.

Although harsh, I've given you the best advice of anyone here. Devote your time to other "money making" ventures where you stand a chance. Or spend a few more hundreds hours on FF, I could care less. At the very least, you have the quality of persistence. Your just applying it in the wrong field. As I told you before, find another way to make money. There are plenty. I'm sure other people will pat you on the back in here, but I don't have it in me to lie. Sorry.
  • #3,109
  • May 7, 2013 12:42pm May 7, 2013 12:42pm
Quoting kk007
validity of a method is another thing.
This is the part you seemingly struggle with and I base this only upon your responses/questions. You seem to need validity in others when in fact you should really be looking for validity in your own self/trading philosophy. You don't have to have the same exact results and precise rules as trader X, create your own.


Quoting kk007
By the way.. do you have enough knowledge to judge my discipline or approach to trading??????
It was a statement and not an accusation, but since you have asked the answer is no.


Quoting kk007
Don't pretend to have known everything please!
I have made it very clear throughout my postings on FF that I fully admit and am aware that I don't know what I don't know. Once I realized this I was able to improve my trading. More importantly once I realized this, or I should say admitted it to myself, all areas of life have become better. If I speak in absolutes most of the time I don't mean to.


Quoting kk007
Are you those kind of people believing that as far as you have the discipline, any method will works?
No, not any, but many if based upon a few principles of markets.



My intent was not to lock horns and muddy this thread, so feel free to say what you will, but I leave you with what I have already said. I hope you have and will in the future trade well.
  • #3,110
  • May 7, 2013 1:10pm May 7, 2013 1:10pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
And now you want to know if I know of any methods that actually work?
In fact, what I have asked was whether you know any method working for others but you are not using. Sorry if my original question caused any misunderstanding.
  • #3,111
  • May 7, 2013 1:11pm May 7, 2013 1:11pm
Quoting TantumVerum
{quote} This is the part you seemingly struggle with and I base this only upon your responses/questions. You seem to need validity in others when in fact you should really be looking for validity in your own self/trading philosophy. You don't have to have the same exact results and precise rules as trader X, create your own. {quote} It was a statement and not an accusation, but since you have asked the answer is no. {quote} I have made it very clear throughout my postings on FF that I fully admit and am aware that I don't know what I don't know....
Thanks for your comment and clarification!
  • #3,112
  • May 7, 2013 1:18pm May 7, 2013 1:18pm
A few more thoughts on the question posed by KK007:

How can we validate any trading method unless we are prepared to trade it? How can we trade it if we are paralyzed by the fear of taking a loss? How can we learn how to make trading decisions while under the gun and under pressure unless we put ourselves in that position over and over until it becomes comfortable?

There is one undeniable truth in trading. One thing that cannot be disputed. You cannot make money unless you are prepared to take a position. You cannot take a position unless you are prepared to lose money on it. If you aren't prepared to lose any money then you aren't prepared to trade. No method, no matter how good, will give the trader a guarantee of never losing money.

In this business a win ratio of sixty percent with a risk reward ratio of 1/2 will make you rich beyond your wildest dreams. Even with these numbers you are going to lose forty percent of the time. Losing is THE essential skill to unlocking the potential massive gains that can be achieved in trading with relatively simple and tried and true methods.

I can't express it any other way, if you are looking for the way to reduce the loser trades you are barking up the wrong tree. look for ways to extend the winners and take more trades with a positive expectancy. It is much more profitable.
  • #3,113
  • May 7, 2013 1:52pm May 7, 2013 1:52pm
SP

i going to be countertrend to your last post ..... i prefer higher win % entry signal to be sure to enter into the trade , if i got only 60% win it will affect my emotions i will filter to try to avoid the pain to lose , or to have a winning trade to become a loser or BE trade , this is why most of us cut quickly winners ...... so the solution less trades but better win % , like this i can use leverage against the broker , exactly what the broker hate ..... he give me leverage to lose faster , with higher win % i can use leverage at my advantage ..... i need less capital ......
i know im going to get killed .... by readers of the thread , but before to tell me im crazy im asking you to really think .....you are all looking at the homerun trade with high RR % , but to get these trades you are optimizing to much , adding to much filters , and killing your psy capital with 40 % losing trade sometimes with series of losing trades ....

cheers
Logic will take you from A to B Imagination will take you anywhere (A.E)
  • #3,114
  • May 7, 2013 2:05pm May 7, 2013 2:05pm
Quoting landsat
SP i going to be countertrend to your last post ..... i prefer higher win % entry signal to be sure to enter into the trade , if i got only 60% win it will affect my emotions i will filter to try to avoid the pain to lose , or to have a winning trade to become a loser or BE trade , this is why most of us cut quickly winners ...... so the solution less trades but better win % , like this i can use leverage against the broker , exactly what the broker hate ..... he give me leverage to lose faster , with higher win % i can use leverage at my advantage...
Therein lies the problem. Sixty percent winners with 2/1 makes more money than eighty percent with 1/1. The goal of trading is to make money not be right.

If losing trades cause pain then you have one of two problems. You are either overleveraged or you have not completely dealt psychologically with the unavoidable reality of losing trades.

I have very few if any filters. If my first long had lost last night then I would have calmly entered short on a retest of the level. If that failed then long again until I got the trade that stuck. I know that not everyone will trade with this type of discipline but not everyone should be trading anyway. I will agree with Xhale on one point. It takes a certain type of personality to trade. A perfectionist will have a terrible time with this. You have to divorce yourself of the notion that you are failing if you won't win ninety or more percent of the time.
  • #3,115
  • May 7, 2013 2:15pm May 7, 2013 2:15pm
SP

if you really believe on your signals , if you are sure to get high RR% , so why not use has it maximum the leverage offer by your broker ?
i dont understand in this case why high leverage is wrong , should be the opposite 60% win rate with 2/1 you should use leverage full don't you think ?
Logic will take you from A to B Imagination will take you anywhere (A.E)
  • #3,116
  • May 7, 2013 2:16pm May 7, 2013 2:16pm
Quoting landsat
SP if you really believe on your signals , if you are sure to get high RR% , so why not use has it maximum the leverage offer by your broker ? i dont understand in this case why high leverage is wrong , should be the opposite 60% win rate with 2/1 you should use leverage full don't you think ?
YOLO
What is any ocean but a multitude of drops?
  • #3,117
  • May 7, 2013 2:18pm May 7, 2013 2:18pm
To put things in perspective..

3 trades. 2 losses. 1 win

33% hit rate? Still positive
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #3,118
  • May 7, 2013 2:21pm May 7, 2013 2:21pm
Quoting landsat
SP if you really believe on your signals , if you are sure to get high RR% , so why not use has it maximum the leverage offer by your broker ? i dont understand in this case why high leverage is wrong , should be the opposite 60% win rate with 2/1 you should use leverage full don't you think ?
Do some research on how many losers in a row are possible with 60% win rate. Low leverage is essential to longevity in trading.

Also it is completely possible to lose all your money with a ninety percent win rate if your money management is not carefully conceived.
  • #3,119
  • May 7, 2013 2:21pm May 7, 2013 2:21pm
33% win rate ..... free advice look for a full time job ... or a better signal .... i dont think anyone makes money with 33% win rate ...
Logic will take you from A to B Imagination will take you anywhere (A.E)
  • #3,120
  • May 7, 2013 2:22pm May 7, 2013 2:22pm
FWIW, I'm pretty sure trades with 80-90% hit rate exists out there. But the occurrence will be so rare that your account will be growing rather slowly. Can a trader really sit on his hand and wait for opportunities to trade just once or twice a month? Pros can. I can't and neither can 90%+ of all the traders out there.
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