MPB Swing Journal

Yeah I still like it but my intraday stop got hit. If Stop was above high I would still be short. Thats trading huh.....

Thursday Signals

There are two signals today of interest. There are two signals that align with a possible COT reversal (unconfirmed at this stage). So as a result they are counter trend trades but could offer a higher probability of 3R being collected should the reversal play out. Also due to the counter trend nature of the trades I have used EOD stops (Daily High and Daily Low) and not Intraday stops. This allows the trade some breathing space as reversals can be more volatile than WT (with trend) pins.
Below is my COT is the bias for the currencies in question:
GBP - Bullish
CAD - Bullish
NZD - Bearish

GBP/NZD - [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]
The Pin is located in a bit of traffic, meaning it engulfs a number of prior bars (i.e. not a clear reversal bar at the end of a pullback or a strong run). However, yesterdays low did extend a far way past the recent lows before getting swiftly rejected and pushed up to close near its high albeit still in the range of the past week or more. So this is an example of a possible continuation pin.
It also was rejected at previous areas of recent support as well as being at a round number of 1.8000. In summary the PA surrounding the pin is not ideal but the background story is supportive.

NZD/CAD - [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]
This pin is a little clearer. It appears to be a second failed attempt at 0.88. This pin had plenty of extension above recent price action only to get rejected pretty hard and close near the low. I dear not mention it but out of interest I did overlay a few momentum indicators (MACD and RSI) and they clearly show possible divergence and this usually favours a reversal. This with the potential COT reversal bias had me placing orders.

Open Positions
CAD/CHF - [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] -> New Long Pin printed Friday. Initial Stop Loss raised to below the low and the round number 0.9200.
GBP/NZD - [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] -> New position opened
NZD/CAD - [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] -> New position opened

Closed Positions
GBP/JPY 1R Loss
NZD/JPY 1R Loss

Friday Signals

AUD/NZD threw up a counter trend pin bar on Friday. I like the signal due to my NZD bearish COT bias. Also, the 1.20 - 1.21 has proved to be pretty supportive over the years as you can see on the Monthly chart. Despite the trend very clearly being down at the moment there is the possibility of at least a tradeable bounce here if not a reversal. I have used end of day stops here.

[email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

Another pin today (an inside bar of the initial pin bar). Something is brewing here.....There has been a lot of choppy action across the board. Still keeping the original orders in play. The last four candles have had long tails on the bottom, this shows lower prices are being rejected. I suspect any breakout could be pretty volatile from here.

Position Update

Closed
CADCHF - Profit +0.91R

Open
GBPNZD - [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]
NZDCAD - [email protected] [email protected] CurrentSL@ 0.8700 [email protected]

Existing Orders
AUDNZD - [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] -> Another inside bar (bearish looking)

New Orders
EURUSD - [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]
Pin bar today at prior resistance. Also 50% FIB level. Good extension above the previous high before closing near the low.

Position Update

Open
GBPNZD - [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]
NZDCAD - [email protected] [email protected] CurrentSL@ 0.8700 [email protected]
EURUSD - [email protected] [email protected] CurrentSL@ 1.3251 [email protected]

Cancelled Orders
AUDNZD - [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

What do you think about gbpchf? Price is being rejected with an inverse hammer id we close like we are right now

Olu

now that gbpcad moves...That's trading for you...

Indeed.....I have put the intraday stop aside for the time being and am using end of day for the stop.
There have been a number of occasions where I should still be in profitable trades if the EOD stop was used.
As usual the trade off is the 3R limit is further away and takes longer to reach...if at all.
TP's are under review a bit......always adapting through experience.......

That bar looks great. I will be trading from it in swing mode only. I have a GBP bullish bias based on COT and the short term trend aligning with this. So will not be expecting a large move down but hopefully enough for a good swing.
In saying all that there is plenty of resistance at the current level so it may get quite a bounce. Will post charts soon.
Cheers Olu.

GBP/CHF - Short

Nice spotting by Olu on this one. My screener has shown a short pin bar today.
Although I have a bullish bias on the GBP I do like the potential in this trade.
The reasons supporting this short are as follows:

1) Failed second attempt at clearing 1.46 (divergence on CCI also)
2) 1.46 was previous support in December 2012 and January 2013 (now becoming resistance?)
3) Pretty obvious downtrend since July 2012 (so is with this longer term trend)

As far as targets go 1.42 is pretty conceivable, 1.4 would be lovely. The standard 3R target is in the middle of these so will stick with that but will look to actively manage this trade as usual.

Orders as follows:
S@14525 SL@14675 TP@14075

Some good calls there my friend

Thanks

NZD/USD - Long Orders

One good looking signal today.
I have a bearish bias on the NZD but the trend is still up at the moment (Despite the lower recent Daily High).
The reasons supporting this Long are as follows:

1) Failed at breaking recent support at 0.8350
2) 0.8350 was previous support & resistance as you can see further back in the chart
3) CCI(10) Oversold
4) Pretty obvious uptrend still.
5) The shape of this pin is very obvious so should attract a bit of interest.

The 0.8650 level will provide a bit of resistance if we get there. The ultimate reward potential looks a little limited unless we go to all time highs (0.8850 which could be possible??.....) but I see this as more of a high probability bounce for perhaps a quicker exit. I will let the PA tell me if this is the case should I get long here.

Orders as follows:
L@8483 SL@8350 TP@8882 (prelim)

Orders cancelled. Lower low made.
I was nearly taken in Long but missed by a few pips.
May be rolling over now?....

Yep......shorts only on this pair for a while......

Position Update

Open
GBPNZD - [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]
NZDCAD - [email protected] [email protected] CurrentSL@ 0.8700 [email protected]
EURUSD - [email protected] [email protected] CurrentSL@ 1.3251 [email protected]

Closed
GBPCHF -1R Loss

GBP/AUD

I am bullish GBP and Bearish AUD......BUT......this one has my attention.
Its against my bias but it looks like a great CT short swing opportunity?.........will think about it over the weekend......

Another pin today. This is enough for me to place orders now. I am playing this a little more conservative. I will be short on a break of the Bar1 Low and Stop above the Bar2 High.

[email protected] [email protected] [email protected]