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  • #3,041
  • May 5, 2013 5:10pm May 5, 2013 5:10pm
Quoting fxterrapin
{quote} Chris, could you explain a bit more how you go about determining which pair is in the driver's seat? How can you determine which pairs will respect levels before they do so? Seems like a bit of a chicken/egg thing, or?
You can't know tomorrow but you can know what has been happening for a few weeks or days in the past. The yen has been a big driver of price since the Japanese joined in the currency wars. Knowing this and also knowing that UJ is a bargain to trade it has tended to be better behaved lately. The dollar was obviously the main force during the crisis of a few years ago. The only thing you can do is to take the first trade of the day and then pay attention to what is happening. If you are trading EU and it is stalling and turning out in space and you toggle over to EJ and see that it is at a level then you may want to protect any profits on the EU trade and since you have no risk on that one any more you are free to play the level on EJ. I suggest always having one pound pair and one euro pair but you can play them against the dollar or yen or cut your risk in half and do both. This way you cover your bases and still don't lose any more than you would otherwise. Nothing wrong with taking four trades at .25 or .5% risk each instead of two trades at .5 or 1% each.

Basically I am saying to pay attention to how things are going. It takes a lot of energy to change a trend. That includes a trend in the behavior of the pairs you are trading.
  • #3,042
  • May 5, 2013 7:28pm May 5, 2013 7:28pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
{quote} With news trades I do things very differently. Something like NFP or interest rate decisions render levels useless to me except for taking profits. I go to strictly price action with these big news events. I love inside bars with the NFP trades because the stop is easy to set and the move is often quicker with less retracement than the ones that break out. I am conservative with the targets on these and leave quite a bit on the table sometimes but we don't need every last pip on offer.
Any liquidity/spread problems during this time without trade size?
  • #3,043
  • May 5, 2013 7:31pm May 5, 2013 7:31pm
Quoting fxterrapin
{quote} Any liquidity/spread problems during this time without trade size?
Never, we are not trying to trade the immediate reaction when there would be liquidity problems. The entry Friday was 36 minutes after the news was out. We were back to normal liquidity and spreads at the entry time.
  • #3,044
  • May 5, 2013 7:51pm May 5, 2013 7:51pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
{quote} Never, we are not trying to trade the immediate reaction when there would be liquidity problems. The entry Friday was 36 minutes after the news was out. We were back to normal liquidity and spreads at the entry time.
Thought so, thanks!
  • #3,045
  • May 5, 2013 10:21pm May 5, 2013 10:21pm
Ok thanks for the insight Chris!
  • #3,046
  • May 6, 2013 2:54am May 6, 2013 2:54am
mmaker

i think could be what you are looking for ... i hope

http://codebase.mql4.com/8315
Logic will take you from A to B Imagination will take you anywhere (A.E)
  • #3,047
  • May 6, 2013 8:47am May 6, 2013 8:47am
Good morning/afternoon/evening.

I have finally selected a broker and will be funding my main account by wire today. The test account I have linked will cease to be a test account and will be traded as my main account beginning tomorrow. I will unlock the trade history tomorrow so you can see the trades. Ignore everything from the past few days except for the news trade Friday as the other stuff is some testing of different ways to use the levels we are talking about here. Today I tested some trades around the London and NY closes from Friday. I am trying to get an idea how Asia plays out around the key levels we cover so that I might be able to rearrange my schedule. Unfortunately last night being holidays in Japan and London my testing was not conclusive and a bit of a disappointment. I will be back to normal hours until I have a good handle on how to proceed. I like the idea of being able to enter late in the NY session or in Asia and sleeping through London market as it is increasingly more difficult to be awake during these hours and also be able to play with and raise my children.

I may open Seneca three with Oanda to begin with a clean slate now that I am funded and ready to begin being followed again I don't really know if you guys care about .3 or .4 % in the bigger picture or not. You guys can just let me know here if you want a perfectly clean account for your purposes or if it is ok to use the account as it is with a few days of testing type entries and basically no movement either way. I will be testing out an EA from MT4I that will auto trade my main account from the smaller one I am using here. Until that testing is complete I may from time to time be entering manually in the main account first then in this smaller one so the entries may not be as precise as normal but they will be close enough I am sure. One or two pips will not make a big difference in the performance of the method overall. I may be asking for a little help from some of you with EA experience to make sure I have the thing installed correctly. I have never used an EA. I have always been a manual trader.

Chris.
  • #3,048
  • May 6, 2013 9:50am May 6, 2013 9:50am
I guess the test wasn't as disappointing as I first thought. Hopefully my exit won't be a disappointment. Sixty can sometimes be tougher than fifty.
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  • #3,049
  • May 6, 2013 9:55am May 6, 2013 9:55am
Quoting Seneca pilot
I guess the test wasn't as disappointing as I first thought. Hopefully my exit won't be a disappointment. Sixty can sometimes be tougher than fifty. {image}
I have that as a test of the weekly close?

Been short that all morning as well, holding for plod.

Just managed to finish reading the whole thread - a real gem!

The real gold is not as much in the method as it is in the money management, position management and trade discipline nuggets.

Worth it's weight in gold.

Thanks for sharing all of this, Chris.
  • #3,050
  • Edited 10:03am May 6, 2013 9:58am | Edited 10:03am
Hello SP,

I just wanted to thank you for having this thread.
You just opened my eyes, and i got my lightbulb moment.

I realized i had too many indicators and too many timeframes on my charting software.
By having that i got mixed up when i was trading.

Just cleaned up my charts and got the levels you mentioned, with some other levels i use.

My E/J short from this morning at the prev week high looks ok.

Thanks again.

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  • #3,051
  • May 6, 2013 10:02am May 6, 2013 10:02am
Quoting sniperfxtrdr
{quote} I have that as a test of the weekly close? Been short that all morning as well, holding for plod. Just managed to finish reading the whole thread - a real gem! The real gold is not as much in the method as it is in the money management, position management and trade discipline nuggets. Worth it's weight in gold. Thanks for sharing all of this, Chris.
Happy to share. I don't always get the most out of my trades. I am always struggling to get the maximum from each trade but sadly I am often the victim of my own frayed nerves and outside pressures. I did get a little more than 2/1 RR on that one so I shouldn't complain too much.
  • #3,052
  • May 6, 2013 10:05am May 6, 2013 10:05am
Quoting msiamd
Hello SP, I just wanted to thank you for having this thread. You just opened my eyes, and i got my lightbulb moment. I realized i had too many indicators and too many timeframes on my charting software. By having that i got mixed up when i was trading. Just cleaned up my charts and got the levels you mentioned, with some other levels i use. My E/J short from this morning at the prev week high looks ok. Thanks again. {image}
Excellent trade. I fell asleep before this hit. I was watching it and should have entered a pending order but I often like to do the entries manually.
  • #3,053
  • May 6, 2013 11:09am May 6, 2013 11:09am
Dear Seneca,

Thank you for this thread.
I also took the indicators off of my charts. Much better that way.

Use any trade account that is good for you. I am happy you show real trades.

Good luck to everyone.
immigration, si! illegal, no! don't spoil what you seek.
  • #3,054
  • May 6, 2013 1:10pm May 6, 2013 1:10pm
Quoting mmaker
What do you guys think of a Skype groupchat, for those learning Seneca Pilot's method? We could organize one for ourselves. Internet Relay Chat or IRC would be another option.
I'm in!
  • #3,055
  • May 6, 2013 1:15pm May 6, 2013 1:15pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
I guess the test wasn't as disappointing as I first thought. Hopefully my exit won't be a disappointment. Sixty can sometimes be tougher than fifty. {image}

Chris, what made you enter the trade below the weekly close (if that was indeed the trigger) and not wait for another touch of that level? Thanks!
  • #3,056
  • May 6, 2013 1:29pm May 6, 2013 1:29pm
Quoting fxterrapin
{quote} Chris, what made you enter the trade below the weekly close (if that was indeed the trigger) and not wait for another touch of that level? Thanks!
I am experimenting with a couple of things that center around the NY and London closes. I am attempting to find something that gives me a good shot at decent profits that will signal entries during the later NY session or Tokyo. That trade was just an experiment and didn't really have anything to do with the weekly close. That entry will appear to be out in space. It isn't but I am not ready to talk about these entries as they are still in the testing phase.
  • #3,057
  • May 6, 2013 3:05pm May 6, 2013 3:05pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
{quote} I am experimenting with a couple of things that center around the NY and London closes. I am attempting to find something that gives me a good shot at decent profits that will signal entries during the later NY session or Tokyo. That trade was just an experiment and didn't really have anything to do with the weekly close. That entry will appear to be out in space. It isn't but I am not ready to talk about these entries as they are still in the testing phase.
Ah, should have read the prior post. My apologies. Does seem though that the weekly close was in play regardless.
  • #3,058
  • May 6, 2013 3:33pm May 6, 2013 3:33pm
Quoting msiamd
Hello SP, I just wanted to thank you for having this thread. You just opened my eyes, and i got my lightbulb moment. I realized i had too many indicators and too many timeframes on my charting software. By having that i got mixed up when i was trading. Just cleaned up my charts and got the levels you mentioned, with some other levels i use. My E/J short from this morning at the prev week high looks ok. Thanks again. {image}
Wait....

That's your chart AFTER you cleaned it up?
What is any ocean but a multitude of drops?
  • #3,059
  • May 6, 2013 4:36pm May 6, 2013 4:36pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
{quote} I am experimenting with a couple of things that center around the NY and London closes. I am attempting to find something that gives me a good shot at decent profits that will signal entries during the later NY session or Tokyo. That trade was just an experiment and didn't really have anything to do with the weekly close. That entry will appear to be out in space. It isn't but I am not ready to talk about these entries as they are still in the testing phase.
I've been tinkering with the idea of having some sort of factor that will tell me that there are higher odd's of a line holding vs getting stopped out (ie. time). Any suggestions?
  • #3,060
  • May 6, 2013 5:40pm May 6, 2013 5:40pm
Quoting biDc
{quote} I've been tinkering with the idea of having some sort of factor that will tell me that there are higher odd's of a line holding vs getting stopped out (ie. time). Any suggestions?
Over the years I have tried just about every indicator and combination of indicators you can imagine. My conclusion is that I should take pretty much every level (except during big news events) and make sure to get bigger winners than the losers. I wish there was a formula that could give me the magic knowledge for when a level will hold. There is some feel and I am sometimes able to skip the odd loser but more often than not if I skip a trade I end up regretting the decision. Often the hardest ones to take are the best trades.

The market is, by design, not to be mastered. Losses and losing trades are mandatory to get success. I know that sounds counter to common sense but it is the way this thing works. Losing trades are the markets way of shaking out weak hands and weak players. Most of us will give up on a great method after two or three losses writing the method off as worthless. It is why so few make it. We spend so much time jumping from one thing to the next that we never learn how to do OUR thing. My challenge to all the traders reading this is to take every trade using stops and holding winners as much as you can. After a month you will be in profit. You have to take the trades though. If you get stopped out, take the retest and lose on that one, you must take the third test. If you don't, if you say the hell with this it doesn't work, that third trade will be the one that goes for eighty pips and the market will win again. This will not happen every day. Many days will be easy but it will happen and when it does you have to have the strength to keep on trading. If you are risking smart amounts three losses in a row should cause no stress and you should be ready to go for the fourth trade knowing that it has the potential to recover most or all of the previous losses.

Sorry for the long winded ranting style reply. I wish it could be easy but I know that if it was easy there would be no profit in it.

Chris.
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