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NZD/USD

  • #1,681
  • May 3, 2013 12:08am May 3, 2013 12:08am
Quoting inpatient
{quote} A great performance and a continuation of logical entries should see this two months become the norm. I have a similar story so far in 2013. Good luck for the future and hopefully the market will give us lots of good opportunities. I am still holding shorts from the latest rally to 0.858. (worried I might not get them back on high enough) Waiting for US news tomorrow but unfortunately I will be at work and unable to react quick enough to it. We shall see what is in store for us.
Hi bro
Thanks for encouragement.3 of my new shorts triggered and its nice to start fresh after locking the profits.Perhaps this time it might break below 8480-70 and if it does doors open to 84 and below.
I would not mind another drive North to 86 and down to 83.Lets pile in the profits and reach our yearly goals lot sooner.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,682
  • May 3, 2013 5:15am May 3, 2013 5:15am
I think that all rebounds as the current one should be exploited to enter short on NzdUsd. Wall Street is entering into a difficult seasonal period and this should put pressure on the Kiwi.
  • #1,683
  • May 3, 2013 8:17am May 3, 2013 8:17am
Awesomely this pair sustained NFP storm!! I really worry if it will touch 0.83 any soon!
  • #1,684
  • May 3, 2013 10:10am May 3, 2013 10:10am
Quoting namitak007
Awesomely this pair sustained NFP storm!! I really worry if it will touch 0.83 any soon!

Kiwi has weakened relative to the S&P, Equities at new highs but the kiwi short of even 0.86,

Its going to take a sell off in Equities to send Kiwi down.

Dow Jones over 15,000 makes me wonder where new buyers will come from (however, I thought this also at 14,000)

Time will tell us what is in store but for now im more than confident holding shorts on the pair looking for a strong break lower at some point in the short to medium term.

Well done to Davit for closing and re entering, was a good move which I should have followed but didn't have the balls to be sure I would get another decent entry again.


Good luck guys,
Money never sleeps...
  • #1,685
  • May 5, 2013 9:34am May 5, 2013 9:34am
added another Short Friday at 8543
I am looking forward for nice profitable weeks ahead.Total shorts 5 but few waiting as reserve army cavalry
helpful note your highest short should be bigger then previous if you can afford it.
My outlook is still bearish and my confidence is up.Gartley move is still valid from C to D since price did not breach 78.6 and last chance 88.6
The chart makes it clear.Ideal TP is AB=CD at 8260 however one can collect profits from 84 on.As always I don't trade rigid way.I have a concept where price is heading but I am flexible to adapt new situations.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZdaily.PNG Size: 47 KB
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,686
  • May 5, 2013 9:53pm May 5, 2013 9:53pm
hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm


Quoting iqyu5an
hi mate.. sorry just be online here... was tired and get sleep too much hehee already clear all out last night ( gmt + 7 ) before getting sleep at 849x. i saw little bullish butterfly there. waiting another setup. no straight line yaaa buddy ... {quote} {image}
not euphoria follower
  • #1,687
  • May 6, 2013 12:26am May 6, 2013 12:26am
look I am technically fu*kedup with this shit pair. No movement as per my analysis. Can anyone tell me how it's moving and why it's heading always north even after the environment is against it?

Bad Chinese data, bad AUD data, strong NFP, strong USD data and guess what? this shit is making new highs? I have been keeping myself down saying "it's pump before dump" or "it's May so there is sell off coming soon" or "it's false move it should come down now" or "it will fall like a stone now" and each time it behaving completely opposite. I am loosing my patience. I have shorts right from .84 last couple of weeks and now it's making me angry.

Can anyone tell me a specific reason about it's climb so I can keep myself calm?
  • #1,688
  • May 6, 2013 12:32am May 6, 2013 12:32am
no one knows... bias is based on our own analysis.
A could have A view and B could have B view

generally... in 1H tf

but PA was trying to make higher high but.. momentum keeps pointing down or no higher high in momentum indi ....shortly it formed kind of divergence or something like that ?



Quoting namitak007
look I am technically fu*kedup with this shit pair. No movement as per my analysis. Can anyone tell me how it's moving and why it's heading always north even after the environment is against it? Bad Chinese data, bad AUD data, strong NFP, strong USD data and guess what? this shit is making new highs? I have been keeping myself down saying "it's pump before dump" or "it's May so there is sell off coming soon" or "it's false move it should come down now" or "it will fall like a stone now" and each time it behaving completely opposite. I am...
not euphoria follower
  • #1,689
  • May 6, 2013 12:35am May 6, 2013 12:35am
Quoting iqyu5an
no one knows... bias is based on our own analysis. A could have A view and B could have B view generally... in 1H tf but PA was trying to make higher high but.. momentum keeps pointing down or no higher high in momentum indi ....shortly it formed kind of divergence or something like that ? {quote}
That is where I am fu*kedup! I couldn't figure out what this pair is doing! It's becoming "gambling pair" day by day!
  • #1,690
  • May 6, 2013 12:40am May 6, 2013 12:40am
really ? it's a nice movement imho. she just came into my area of interest ( check it )

as i said before.. A could have A view...and B could have B view



Quoting namitak007
{quote} That is where I am fu*kedup! I couldn't figure out what this pair is doing! It's becoming "gambling pair" day by day!
not euphoria follower
  • #1,691
  • May 6, 2013 12:54am May 6, 2013 12:54am
Quoting iqyu5an
really ? it's a nice movement imho. she just came into my area of interest ( check it ) as i said before.. A could have A view...and B could have B view {quote}
hmm! maybe I am doing something wrong then! Well for me the wave touched A to B and B to C nicely. it's "C" for now oh 4h chart so I am hoping for "D" around 0.84
  • #1,692
  • May 6, 2013 1:39am May 6, 2013 1:39am
Quoting namitak007
look I am technically fu*kedup with this shit pair. No movement as per my analysis. Can anyone tell me how it's moving and why it's heading always north even after the environment is against it? Bad Chinese data, bad AUD data, strong NFP, strong USD data and guess what? this shit is making new highs? I have been keeping myself down saying "it's pump before dump" or "it's May so there is sell off coming soon" or "it's false move it should come down now" or "it will fall like a stone now" and each time it behaving completely opposite. I am...
Gidday

NZ is a tricky rooster,there is a bit of talk about 0.88 etc.
NZ around 0.85.5 my next pending 0.866 short
I choose to short this pair because that works for me.
NZ exporters will not be to happy about this,but they are floating the power shares this week.
They are trying to get the local punters to spend into share market instead off land an housing.
This makes housing more expensive in the expensive areas.
It won't stay at these levels,NZ
  • #1,693
  • May 6, 2013 3:17am May 6, 2013 3:17am
Quoting namitak007
look I am technically fu*kedup with this shit pair. No movement as per my analysis. Can anyone tell me how it's moving and why it's heading always north even after the environment is against it? Bad Chinese data, bad AUD data, strong NFP, strong USD data and guess what? this shit is making new highs? I have been keeping myself down saying "it's pump before dump" or "it's May so there is sell off coming soon" or "it's false move it should come down now" or "it will fall like a stone now" and each time it behaving completely opposite. I am...
To be honest your problem is not about this pair but greed and over-trading.
I had shorts as well same time as you and I have closed all of them TWICE! with profit.
You need to calm down and analyze why you do what you do and correct the mistakes.You can only become successful if you learn money and greed management.
Nothing wrong with this pair in fact Kiwi has been most profitable to me.Trading is dealing with uncertainty with cool level head.
Stay calm.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,694
  • May 6, 2013 3:56am May 6, 2013 3:56am
xixiixixixi... what a nice movement r8 ?
Quoting namitak007
{quote} hmm! maybe I am doing something wrong then! Well for me the wave touched A to B and B to C nicely. it's "C" for now oh 4h chart so I am hoping for "D" around 0.84
not euphoria follower
  • #1,695
  • May 6, 2013 8:58am May 6, 2013 8:58am
i'm paying a lot on fees to roll my NZD shorts. what are the rates you guys see, lets say on 100000 short NZD per day?
  • #1,696
  • May 6, 2013 9:02am May 6, 2013 9:02am
Institutional 1Y NZD swap is 214 pips per year.
  • #1,697
  • May 6, 2013 9:17am May 6, 2013 9:17am
-207 pips 1 y
  • #1,698
  • May 6, 2013 9:22am May 6, 2013 9:22am
Quoting iNZane
i'm paying a lot on fees to roll my NZD shorts. what are the rates you guys see, lets say on 100000 short NZD per day?
I suggest to add 1 more short but at later time to cover the fees, sort of "tax" short when she gets moving.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,699
  • May 6, 2013 9:26am May 6, 2013 9:26am
lot of key news release at Weds
This is just speculation on my part but I think Chinese will manipulate their numbers to look bad because they buy lot of commodities from NZ and hard metals from Australia and cheaper those currencies are better for China.
Since Chinese are artificially keeping their currency down no reason not to expect they will cook those numbers as well.
Attached Image
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,700
  • May 6, 2013 9:28am May 6, 2013 9:28am
make it 82xx then ...hehehehhe

Quoting Davit
lot of key news release at Weds {image}
not euphoria follower
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