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  • #3,021
  • May 3, 2013 11:35am May 3, 2013 11:35am
Quoting Seneca pilot
OK its Friday. Its a beautiful day. I worked from 9:06 until 09:31. It was a grueling day at the office so now I will go away and wish I had stayed in. Sometimes the market makes no sense to me. I am so glad I don't trade on fundamentals because I would be lost. I got + 1.6% for the week. Not too bad for three days of trading.
Have a great weekend, SP.

Am getting my live small account up by next week, and will start trading. Due to my work schedule and timezone, I can only set "sell previous day high" and "buy previous day low" entries, and live trade the high impact news inside-bar. Wishing for good discipline.
  • #3,022
  • May 3, 2013 11:51am May 3, 2013 11:51am
News play worked out perfectly on /ES as well
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  • #3,023
  • May 3, 2013 12:05pm May 3, 2013 12:05pm
hi guys, hope you had a good day,if you didn't something is wrong.. I actually hunted out the nfp today and hey presto that's the summer holiday paid for, I suppose I must say thanks to SP or bringing it to my attention lol.
I actually started work on my book after being hounded ,so I will not be around as you can tell, so its time to be with the big boys, so take care all, do not get over confident
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #3,024
  • May 3, 2013 12:18pm May 3, 2013 12:18pm
Quoting biDc
News play worked out perfectly on /ES as well {image}
Nice to see. I have been told that the pit guys used ten minutes for ES back in the day. I like fifteen because it gives the news time to sink in and the real move to be decided. Also gives the spreads time to come in to normal ranges too.

Everyone have a great weekend. Please turn off your trading platforms and get away, nothing good can come out of trying to trade now.
  • #3,025
  • May 3, 2013 1:17pm May 3, 2013 1:17pm
Quoting stevexyg
{quote} These pppp daily levels are not going to be as reliable as simply the PD levels. Usually the previous daily levels are being returned to for the first time so that is why a price reaction can occur there - because orders are waiting to be filled when price hits the level for the first or second time. But with a ppp level price may already have been back there a few times over the last few days so most orders may have been filled already. You shouldn't consider making any trading decisions on these ppp levels unless you have studied them...
You are very helpful on this thread. What methods are you trading and do you have a Myfxbook to share?

Quoting Seneca pilot
OK its Friday. Its a beautiful day. I worked from 9:06 until 09:31. It was a grueling day at the office so now I will go away and wish I had stayed in. Sometimes the market makes no sense to me. I am so glad I don't trade on fundamentals because I would be lost. I got + 1.6% for the week. Not too bad for three days of trading.
Seneca Pilot,
What timezone are you in when you say "9:06 until 9:31"? GMT, EST, CST, PST? Do you always say in one timezone or you will sometimes mention MT4 server time?
No longer trading forex. Looking for full time job.
  • #3,026
  • May 3, 2013 2:01pm May 3, 2013 2:01pm
Quoting mmaker
{quote} What methods are you trading and do you have a Myfxbook to share?
I'm not trading live yet, last time I tried that (on a trend following indicator-heavy setup) I lost big time. Methods will be the ones in this thread when I go live again.
  • #3,027
  • May 3, 2013 2:16pm May 3, 2013 2:16pm
Quoting mmaker
{quote} You are very helpful on this thread. What methods are you trading and do you have a Myfxbook to share? {quote} Seneca Pilot, What timezone are you in when you say "9:06 until 9:31"? GMT, EST, CST, PST? Do you always say in one timezone or you will sometimes mention MT4 server time?
My trade server and home time zone are the same. Eastern US NY time zone. Eastern Daylight right now.
  • #3,028
  • May 4, 2013 1:56pm May 4, 2013 1:56pm
Hey SP and others,

Discovered this thread on Friday and am spending the best part of the weekend reading all the posts.

Only on page 50 now.

I am a very experienced fulltime trader using a more complicated approach based on trendlines. The simplicity of this method is enticing to me and I will be forward testing the concepts covered in this thread, starting next week.

A question to SP, not sure whether this has been answered as yet, if it has I will get to it in due time.

What is your average nett R per week and monthly?

I quickly did the following calc. Say you makemore or less 12 trades per week, with a 60% win ratio. You will lose on 5 trades, ie -5R. On 7 trades you will net 2R per trade, resulting in +14R.

14R-5R = 9R nett per week and thus 36R per month.

Are these numbers close to reality?

I view R as THE most important return number as you can then leverage to meet required returns.

Will catch up with you all next week.

Take care and thank you in advance!

Sniper..
  • #3,029
  • May 4, 2013 3:00pm May 4, 2013 3:00pm
Quoting sniperfxtrdr
I view R as THE most important return number as you can then leverage to meet required returns.
Reminds me of a mentor I used to study with, Paul Lange, who always insisted on measuring in terms or R. When it comes to forex, people like to brag about how many hundred pips they made. But they could have risked -150pips to win +200pips. Another person who risked -20pips to score +60pips is the better 3R trader, although he has less to brag about being "only" 60pips compared to the "amazing" 200pips guy.

Similarly, vendors often quote the dollar gains without specifying the R involved.
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No longer trading forex. Looking for full time job.
  • #3,030
  • May 4, 2013 5:36pm May 4, 2013 5:36pm
Quoting sniperfxtrdr
I view R as THE most important return number as you can then leverage to meet required returns.
Agreed, everything revolves around R
  • #3,031
  • May 4, 2013 9:22pm May 4, 2013 9:22pm
Quoting sniperfxtrdr
Hey SP and others, Discovered this thread on Friday and am spending the best part of the weekend reading all the posts. Only on page 50 now. I am a very experienced fulltime trader using a more complicated approach based on trendlines. The simplicity of this method is enticing to me and I will be forward testing the concepts covered in this thread, starting next week. A question to SP, not sure whether this has been answered as yet, if it has I will get to it in due time. What is your average nett R per week and monthly? I quickly did the following...

Last month (actually 4.5 weeks) I made a little over thirty seven percent on the account I had linked here from myfxbook. I never risk more than one percent on a position and often it is more like .75%. The easy thing to say here is that I made 37+ R for the month. Not exactly though. Since you have said you have a lot of experience you will know that the mix of trades in there is complicated. First there are some losers that were less than one R. I have a mix of methods and if I get an entry from one type of trade that is counter to the current holding I may flip positions before a stop out. I also so do not have fixed stops and targets. The same entry might produce 1.5R once and 6R another time. I am usually targeting a level for exit rather than a fixed R multiple. I prefer to take nothing less than 2R as a possible target but if a price pattern causes me to exit before the target I will do it without remorse. Friday is a good example. I took profit at a weekly level. I could have waited to see if the level was broken and held for more. I spent some time complaining here about how I exited too early. Well I would do it again. That weekly high could very easily have stopped price in its tracks and rejected it down hard and killed most of my profits. As it was I risked .6% and made 1% so more than 1.5/1.

The cliff note version of this story is that I probably trade in a way that is a little too discretionary and complicated to give an exact R multiple to expect. If you are using a trend following method with indicators you will, more than likely, be accustomed to using fixed stops and targets. That won't work with this method. You will have to be somewhat flexible and attendant to changes in sentiment and stop and target management. I will say that often the potential exists to get 4R and 5R trades. It is really rather common to sell the previous day high and ride it all the way down to the previous day low. With the somewhat tight stops I use that can mean very large rewards on a single trade. Other trades might be more in the range of 1.2 to 1.5 R depending on the price action. I always go into a trade looking for at least 2R but that can be fluid. Often to get a really good R/R on a trade you are going to have to ride it through some levels. This may be something you are comfortable with but for me it is hard to do. I have so much history with these levels and trust them so much that I often just want to take profit when price hits one then get back in if it gets broken. Normally we get a retest of a broken level and can get back on the bus with minimal missed pips.

I know this is not the simple answer that you might have hoped for but it is a true one. I will say this. I don't have many losing days. I have very few losing weeks. I almost never have a losing month. I will admit to the fact that I don't often get the best out of my trades. My entries are often spot on and deep within the wicks of higher time frame bars but my exits are something I have to work on constantly. Your strengths and weaknesses are going to differ from mine so your results will also differ from mine. If you have the discipline to stand in front of a fast moving price train and can hold a winner you can see incredible risk reward ratios on some of the trades this method produces. You will see as you read the thread I have posted some entries in real time that were less than ten pips off a weekly low or high but didn't hold them for more than thirty or forty pips. If I were a great trader I would have R multiples that would be very impressive because my entries can sometimes be amazingly good.

Welcome to the thread. I hope there is something in here you can use even if you decide not to adopt the trading style.

Chris.
  • #3,032
  • May 4, 2013 10:09pm May 4, 2013 10:09pm
Sometimes I wish FF has a like button like FB lol
  • #3,033
  • May 5, 2013 3:49am May 5, 2013 3:49am
Hi Chris!

After read through the entire thread, initially i thought you simple sell prev day high and buy prev days low and daily opens etc.

However as i dig deeper, i kinda realised that it's more discretionary rather than mechanical.

So some questions that i would like to know is that, do you take into account the recent trend? If its really bullish might you only look for buys and vice versa for sells.

Also you look at number of pairs, thus would you be inclined to sell the weaker one, e.g. EURJPY & GBPJPY and EJ happen to be the weaker of the 2?

And any critical factors you have when you trade one pair over another?

Thanks!
  • #3,034
  • May 5, 2013 7:37am May 5, 2013 7:37am
Quoting Seneca pilot
{quote} Last month (actually 4.5 weeks) I made a little over thirty seven percent on the account I had linked here from myfxbook. I never risk more than one percent on a position and often it is more like .75%. The easy thing to say here is that I made 37+ R for the month.....<Snip> Welcome to the thread. I hope there is something in here you can use even if you decide not to adopt the trading style. Chris.
Chris, Thank you very much for taking the time and effort to draft such a detailed response. Respect!

I am really looking for a very generalised idea of what kinda R return you manage to churn out with your execution of this approach. I would therefore argue that you did manage to do a 37R return last month, without trying to dig into the absolute specifics of each and every trade.

Also, if you return 10 to 12% per month (again generalising), with a .75% risk, then, for the purpose of getting a very generalised understanding of the expectancy of this approach, you manage a return of 13R to 16R per month.

My sense is that, given the frequency and general targets of your execution, that you should be in the 25R to 40R monthly return range and I am actually just trying to confirm if I am in the right ballpark?

Should my estimation be right, this is a very very good approach from an expectancy perspective.

Hope this clarifies the real reason for my initial question and that this will assist in perhaps providing a view of your generalised R returns?

I apologise if I may come across as demanding but I am very interested to get an idea of the ballpark range you have managed to achieve trading this approach?

I am looking forward to participating and contributing as much as I can.

Take care,
Sniper
  • #3,035
  • May 5, 2013 9:34am May 5, 2013 9:34am
Quoting twrayner
Hi Chris! After read through the entire thread, initially i thought you simple sell prev day high and buy prev days low and daily opens etc. However as i dig deeper, i kinda realised that it's more discretionary rather than mechanical. So some questions that i would like to know is that, do you take into account the recent trend? If its really bullish might you only look for buys and vice versa for sells. Also you look at number of pairs, thus would you be inclined to sell the weaker one, e.g. EURJPY & GBPJPY and EJ happen to be the weaker of the...
The discretion is mostly with respect to the targets I will shoot for and the entries I choose to take. I will normally take any high or low trade. I will not always take opens or closes. If the daily open is only ten pips from the previous day high I may take the open with a smaller position and attempt to get the full position at the high. I do the same with London and NY closes.

I am very selective with the pairs I will trade on any given day. I look at the dollar pairs and yen pairs every day to see which ones are behaving best. I want to trade the pairs that are in the driver's seat with respect to observing levels. Some days recently for example EU has turned in what seems like thin air. A quick look at EJ explains why though. EJ would be hitting its daily low or some other level and turn dragging EU along with it while EU is not hitting any specific level. In this situation I want to be trading EJ as it is the driver in this scenario (the yen is the factor not the dollar).

I don't really use the trend too much. Trends are pretty subjective and time frame dependent. I have seen three days of consecutive up movement reverse on the fourth day's short from a high. Many times we will get a long entry from the daily open when we are in up trending mode and then simply have to successfully ride it through the previous day high. This is where it gets sticky because the high will hold more than fifty percent of the time unless we are in a strong trend. I actually see better results from selling the high and allowing the stop out then reversing long at the high.
  • #3,036
  • May 5, 2013 9:40am May 5, 2013 9:40am
To those who still haven't seen it. It will be taken down fairly quickly so don't put off watching it.

And dammit I wish FF would stop screwing with the look of the site.

Inserted Video
What is any ocean but a multitude of drops?
  • #3,037
  • May 5, 2013 10:26am May 5, 2013 10:26am
Quoting sniperfxtrdr
{quote} Chris, Thank you very much for taking the time and effort to draft such a detailed response. Respect! I am really looking for a very generalised idea of what kinda R return you manage to churn out with your execution of this approach. I would therefore argue that you did manage to do a 37R return last month, without trying to dig into the absolute specifics of each and every trade. Also, if you return 10 to 12% per month (again generalising), with a .75% risk, then, for the purpose of getting a very generalised understanding of the...
Without getting too specific and encouraging the trolls to come out of the woodwork I will say that it is completely reasonable to expect to make fifteen plus percent with a max risk per trade of one or less percent. Typically expect from two to six trades per day using two pairs. If stopped out on a level you must be ready to enter on a retest. If that stops out you need to be ready to once again get back in. With time you will be able to sniff out when to skip a level and wait for the other side to enter. As you have said you have a lot of screen time you may be far along in this and be able to sense when a level is going to hold. Typically a fast move into the level is preferred to a slow grind.

Hope this helps.
  • #3,038
  • May 5, 2013 10:27am May 5, 2013 10:27am
Quoting Seneca pilot
{quote} Without getting too specific and encouraging the trolls to come out of the woodwork I will say that it is completely reasonable to expect to make fifteen plus percent with a max risk per trade of one or less percent. Typically expect from two to six trades per day using two pairs. If stopped out on a level you must be ready to enter on a retest. If that stops out you need to be ready to once again get back in. With time you will be able to sniff out when to skip a level and wait for the other side to enter. As you have said you have a lot...

Thanks Chris, it does indeed help.
  • #3,039
  • May 5, 2013 1:59pm May 5, 2013 1:59pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
{quote} Some days recently for example EU has turned in what seems like thin air. A quick look at EJ explains why though. EJ would be hitting its daily low or some other level and turn dragging EU along with it while EU is not hitting any specific level. In this situation I want to be trading EJ as it is the driver in this scenario (the yen is the factor not the dollar).
Lightbulb moment!! It's so obvious...doh!!
  • #3,040
  • May 5, 2013 4:50pm May 5, 2013 4:50pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
{quote} I want to trade the pairs that are in the driver's seat with respect to observing levels. Some days recently for example EU has turned in what seems like thin air. A quick look at EJ explains why though. EJ would be hitting its daily low or some other level and turn dragging EU along with it while EU is not hitting any specific level. In this situation I want to be trading EJ as it is the driver in this scenario (the yen is the factor not the dollar).

Chris, could you explain a bit more how you go about determining which pair is in the driver's seat? How can you determine which pairs will respect levels before they do so? Seems like a bit of a chicken/egg thing, or?
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