Volume is still low on down bars at the moment, but getting worried{image}
How was it?
- #24,102
- May 2, 2013 2:30pm May 2, 2013 2:30pm
- Joined Aug 2009 | Status: Reading the TAPE | 2,389 Posts
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
{quote} Excellent post! Good to hear from you again buddy. A little bit of AJ for today, its NFP day though so LO may be a slow session. Obviously some selling occurred today, if price rolls over I may try my hand on a short. Currently price is in an up trend (red line) so no shorts just yet. {image}
It's heading toward the demand area HiddenGap pointed out.
Yes, I do enjoy eating bananas. Very much.
- #24,107
- May 3, 2013 12:15pm May 3, 2013 12:15pm
- Joined Sep 2010 | Status: I'm not here... or am I? | 4,000 Posts
did anyone predict this move up, please share how you did itThank you {image}
. VSA is not about predicting. Can you attempt to make educated guesses about where price is heading using VSA? Can you venture an educated guess based on what the current PA combined with the background is tell you? Sure you can but the best practice is to trade the entries you see that align with the overall background. Do you see an entry to go long on your chart? If not perhaps it is because there was not one there or perhaps someone else can show you one you missed or overlooked. Not every move up or down has an entry and some moves just happen so quickly we cannot cash in on them so we need to be patient and choose the entries based on our trading plan and then manage the trades to suit your personal risk / MM. You can apply a little "predictive analysis" when choosing targets or when trailing your SL's based on S/D zones that are above or below your entries to determine the best places to get out or places where reversals against your trade may happen.
The best thing to do IMHO is trade what you see when you see it so long as it fits in your plan.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
- #24,108
- Edited 11:08pm May 3, 2013 10:00pm | Edited 11:08pm
- | Joined Mar 2012 | Status: Trader | 87 Posts
Nope. Too "risky" for me 
I would be looking to short.
Giving my analysis (forgive my inexperienced perspective):
These candle would stick out to me. Please see below. The number correspond with the orange lines drawn. 1 = 1st.
1.) Climatic Buy Bar. // Now I'll be looking for failed supply test, or demand test
2.) Upthrust bar. // Attempt to rise, but pushed down. Still waiting for test
3.) Supply test. // Lower low than the previous candles with lower volume than the previous two candles. Waiting for next candle confirmation.
The next candle thrust downward than close at the high of the supply test. There is no strong supply, or there is still strong demand present. [Waiting once more]
4.) Upthrust bar. // Attempt to rise, but pushed down once more. High of candle was near recent resistance of past 8 candles. [ Supply still present? Who knows
]
Bullish engulfing candle afterward, demand consumed supply. [Demand still strong. Back to waiting]
I would've missed this trade.
Edited: remove [s] in "candles" in third sentence. Typo
Edited2: Just realized I put failed in front of demand test, instead of supply.
I would be looking to short.Giving my analysis (forgive my inexperienced perspective):
These candle would stick out to me. Please see below. The number correspond with the orange lines drawn. 1 = 1st.
1.) Climatic Buy Bar. // Now I'll be looking for failed supply test, or demand test
2.) Upthrust bar. // Attempt to rise, but pushed down. Still waiting for test
3.) Supply test. // Lower low than the previous candles with lower volume than the previous two candles. Waiting for next candle confirmation.
The next candle thrust downward than close at the high of the supply test. There is no strong supply, or there is still strong demand present. [Waiting once more]
4.) Upthrust bar. // Attempt to rise, but pushed down once more. High of candle was near recent resistance of past 8 candles. [ Supply still present? Who knows
]Bullish engulfing candle afterward, demand consumed supply. [Demand still strong. Back to waiting]
I would've missed this trade.
did anyone predict this move up, please share how you did it
Edited2: Just realized I put failed in front of demand test, instead of supply.
Yes, I do enjoy eating bananas. Very much.
I just realized that the my "Climatic Buy bar" from the post above is actually a climatic sell bar? I didn't even noticed the color. Silly me....
Nope. Too "risky" for me
Yes, I do enjoy eating bananas. Very much.
- #24,110
- May 4, 2013 10:05pm May 4, 2013 10:05pm
{quote} First thing you need to do is add volume to your chart
- #24,111
- May 4, 2013 10:38pm May 4, 2013 10:38pm
did anyone predict this move up, please share how you did it
I have been looking at this move and really I didn't really see what happened until I was looking at AU. As I was looking at AU, it was more evident that the dips were being bought.
It appears that I am too short sighted when I am looking at the background. I like to read the previous day, which admittedly does work a lot of the time, but the action from Friday has shown me that there will be times when I miss what is going on in the bigger picture by only focusing on the previous day. I am starting to see that while it is beneficial to focus and determine what each session did on the prior day, it is equally beneficial to zoom out and look to see determine what the overall action did for the prior days.
Here is AJ.
The dips (yellow) have higher volume showing us more activity was going on, while the tops (red) have very low volume, showing us that not much selling was going on. Now if you look on 5/1, there was a little bit of selling which sent the pair down even further so that it could be bought further.
I admit defeat.
{quote} ....Not every move up or down has an entry and some moves just happen so quickly we cannot cash in on them
Thanks for the post.
I posted I was bearish on this pair and was wrong, so this is just all in hindsight.
this was very encouraging.
Hope you don't mind if I save that image of AJ (buying on dips). it is is easier to learn that way.
The loss was not bad luck. It was bad Analysis - D.Einhorn
- #24,115
- May 5, 2013 10:35pm May 5, 2013 10:35pm
{quote} Right now I have only this to console myself with
I think that a lot of people dismiss 4h charts because of the different brokers use different start times, I even get away from looking at them due to trying to focus on other time frames. Honestly out of my experience ( I use a 4h based on London open and one based on US open) I go to my 4h based on London open first and more often than the one based on US ( LO 7 am GMT, IBFX 4h is based on LO).
Here is AU 4h London open
Selling climax
Test
Malformed SO
about the AJ move, I would like to add my 1cent on this one, using SD charts(infringing copy rights here! :-)
It is also in hindsight but it is highly valuable to input it in our minds for next time we see it.
Anyways, the point I would like to reinforce is that it is worth to keep high volume areas in the charts until they are clearly exhausted because it can help us to read the story in the future, like this one.
1. HV up bar, showing selling there(and the price fell, indeed)
2. effort to rise or effort to break the supply area in 1(here is where old HV areas come into play because it gives context to the next price/volume action)
3. this pull back is with lowering volume and much lower than the volume in the area 1. It is testing the supply that was in area 1 in the previous day
4. here the price is being hold in the HV area 2, showing that the buyers that swallowed the selling at 1 are committed to keep the price up
Again, it is in hindsight but using previous HV areas to read the actual price/volume action is a good way to get the right context.
KinsaleForex and HG are good references on how to do that. I learn with their posts.
Cheers!
It is also in hindsight but it is highly valuable to input it in our minds for next time we see it.
Anyways, the point I would like to reinforce is that it is worth to keep high volume areas in the charts until they are clearly exhausted because it can help us to read the story in the future, like this one.
1. HV up bar, showing selling there(and the price fell, indeed)
2. effort to rise or effort to break the supply area in 1(here is where old HV areas come into play because it gives context to the next price/volume action)
3. this pull back is with lowering volume and much lower than the volume in the area 1. It is testing the supply that was in area 1 in the previous day
4. here the price is being hold in the HV area 2, showing that the buyers that swallowed the selling at 1 are committed to keep the price up
Again, it is in hindsight but using previous HV areas to read the actual price/volume action is a good way to get the right context.
KinsaleForex and HG are good references on how to do that. I learn with their posts.
Cheers!
Hello All,
Happy Monday to you all!
Here is a live chart that has caught my attention. Based on it's reaction, I will decide to trade or not. High supply at red box, hoping for a test of supply after it hit that box.
My bias is up, atm. Volume is increasing, as down bars close off its high.
Feel free to input, anyone.
Happy Monday to you all!
Here is a live chart that has caught my attention.
Based on it's reaction, I will decide to trade or not. High supply at red box, hoping for a test of supply after it hit that box.My bias is up, atm. Volume is increasing, as down bars close off its high.
Feel free to input, anyone.
Yes, I do enjoy eating bananas. Very much.
- #24,120
- May 6, 2013 10:39pm May 6, 2013 10:39pm
Hello All, Happy Monday to you all! Here is a live chart that has caught my attention.
30m chart, the area you showed us tested the close of the highest volume bar from Friday. EJ does look bullish.
Pivot at 129.50 and weekly fib at 129.60, these would be some good areas to look for tests.
