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  • #2,901
  • Apr 30, 2013 11:01pm Apr 30, 2013 11:01pm
Hi all!

Would like to know if my prev day high/low and openings are in sync with you guys due to the time difference on my side of the continent.

For EURUSD, the prev day high i got 1.3186, prev day low is 1.3054. My daily open is 1.3163

For GBPUSD, the prev day high is 1.5568, prev day low is 1.5468. My daily open is 1.5531

Did i get those right?

Thanks!
  • #2,902
  • Apr 30, 2013 11:36pm Apr 30, 2013 11:36pm
Quoting twrayner
Hi all! Would like to know if my prev day high/low and openings are in sync with you guys due to the time difference on my side of the continent. For EURUSD, the prev day high i got 1.3186, prev day low is 1.3054. My daily open is 1.3163 For GBPUSD, the prev day high is 1.5568, prev day low is 1.5468. My daily open is 1.5531 Did i get those right? Thanks!


Bank holidays today so don't expect much.
  • #2,903
  • Apr 30, 2013 11:37pm Apr 30, 2013 11:37pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
{quote} Bank holidays today so don't expect much.
Its a public holiday here too!

have a good break!
  • #2,904
  • Apr 30, 2013 11:47pm Apr 30, 2013 11:47pm
Quoting twrayner
Hi all! Would like to know if my prev day high/low and openings are in sync with you guys due to the time difference on my side of the continent. For EURUSD, the prev day high i got 1.3186, prev day low is 1.3054. My daily open is 1.3163 For GBPUSD, the prev day high is 1.5568, prev day low is 1.5468. My daily open is 1.5531 Did i get those right? Thanks!
What are your numbers for EURJPY and GBPJPY please?
No longer trading forex. Looking for full time job.
  • #2,905
  • Apr 30, 2013 11:59pm Apr 30, 2013 11:59pm
Quoting mmaker
{quote} What are your numbers for EURJPY and GBPJPY please?
Ok hope i'm right, anyone correct me if im wrong.

For EURJPY i have 128.51 for prev day high, 127.200 for prev day low and 128.00 for daily opening.

For GBPJPY i have 151.800 for prev day high, 150.75 for prev day low and 151.03 for daily opening.

Hope that helps!
  • #2,906
  • May 1, 2013 12:02am May 1, 2013 12:02am
Quoting twrayner
{quote} Ok hope i'm right, anyone correct me if im wrong. For EURJPY i have 128.51 for prev day high, 127.200 for prev day low and 128.00 for daily opening. For GBPJPY i have 151.800 for prev day high, 150.75 for prev day low and 151.03 for daily opening. Hope that helps!
  • #2,907
  • May 1, 2013 12:34am May 1, 2013 12:34am
SP,

May I be back to the rambling discussion?
What is your way to discovering a type of trading method?
You have already discussed the rationale of fading key S&R level based on supply and demand of orders.
How would you comment on other trading methods, based on for example, price action, moving average and patterns?
(I understand that you don't basically consider indicator at all.)

KK
  • #2,908
  • May 1, 2013 1:42am May 1, 2013 1:42am
Quoting kk007
SP, May I be back to the rambling discussion? What is your way to discovering a type of trading method? You have already discussed the rationale of fading key S&R level based on supply and demand of orders. How would you comment on other trading methods, based on for example, price action, moving average and patterns? (I understand that you don't basically consider indicator at all.) KK
I look for patterns. Not the conventional patterns that are taught in every trading book, but consistent repeating patterns in price behavior. Show me something that happens more than fifty percent of the time in a reliable and recognizable way and I can devise a trading system around that thing. Price action, moving average methods, typical price patterns like H&S, triangles, etc. are mostly fifty/fifty propositions. It is tough to trade something that you cannot count on to repeat consistently.

To answer your question directly:

Price action only works at specific price levels. If you know the level is likely to produce a reaction that will form a price action bar, simply trade the level. Waiting for the price action bar may make you feel better about the entry but it increases your risk and decreases your potential gain.

Moving averages only tell you where price has been. They have absolutely no predictive value. Price will always return to a moving average of any duration. It's a moving average so price must eventually come to meet the it. There is no way to know however when the price gets to the average what it will do next. It can bounce and return to its previous direction, but it can just as easily go through the average and begin to go in a new direction. Most any moving average strategy will work in trend and get killed in chop eventually losing due to trading costs.

Patterns like H&S, flags, triangles, etc. have some value. They have proven to be somewhat predictive so they are something I watch. I typically will use these types of patterns to help with trade management. They are generally fifty/fifty but can have large enough reward to risk to be of some value. These types of patterns, though, are not by a long shot the best and most efficient way to trade. The trader is often left with a stop that is too big and a target that is too close to have an effective entry.

I would never argue with a trader who likes to have an indicator agree with a chosen entry. If it makes you feel better to see an over bought condition at a short entry point, or to see divergence at a long off a daily low, more power to you. My problem with indicators is when people use them to trigger trades. Indicators have no predictive value. No matter what the indicator is reading price can do anything. The same thing applies to trading price levels but there we have the odds in our favor. Not every price level is going to influence price on every day but it happens more often than fifty percent and that is all we need.

Whatever method you are using to enter the market the main necessary skill is proper trade management. This is where most traders go wrong. Entering a trade is quite easy, I could do it right now in less than a second. The key is what is done after the entry. You have to manage your trades to a reasonable profit often enough to overcome the losses and trade costs that are a part of trading. This means not moving to break even too soon, not placing your stop loss to close or too far away from the entry point, and having the patience to attempt to get the maximum reward from your successful entries.
  • #2,909
  • May 1, 2013 2:01am May 1, 2013 2:01am
Quoting twrayner
Hi all! Would like to know if my prev day high/low and openings are in sync with you guys due to the time difference on my side of the continent. For EURUSD, the prev day high i got 1.3186, prev day low is 1.3054. My daily open is 1.3163 For GBPUSD, the prev day high is 1.5568, prev day low is 1.5468. My daily open is 1.5531 Did i get those right? Thanks!
Quoting twrayner
{quote} Ok hope i'm right, anyone correct me if im wrong. For EURJPY i have 128.51 for prev day high, 127.200 for prev day low and 128.00 for daily opening. For GBPJPY i have 151.800 for prev day high, 150.75 for prev day low and 151.03 for daily opening. Hope that helps!
I don't have the MT4 indicators from this thread but on TradeStation the lines looked like these, I think quite the same as yours.

The time axis is in New York Eastern Time. Red line is the Daily Open at 12pmET (3 hours before London Open). The Magenta line is the NY Close (5pmET) but start plotting at 12pmET.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.png Size: 12 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GU.png Size: 12 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EJ.png Size: 13 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GJ.png Size: 13 KB
No longer trading forex. Looking for full time job.
  • #2,910
  • May 1, 2013 2:02am May 1, 2013 2:02am
Quoting Seneca pilot
{quote} The next weekly high is up at 1.32. I would probably take a stab at that if we get there today.
Hi Pilot

Nice thread. The more bells & whistles on chart really does screw your head. This is one of less than a handful of quality threads on FoFac ! I am more or less on same page, only I tend to play weekly and monthly levels, also quarterly levels.
1.3200 High of April and 1.322x the mid of the 1st Quarterly High. My obvious concern is taking this short so close to ECB rate decision. However for your approach if you catch the level early London session it may be tradeable. I will be sitting it out until ECB data out. Good Luck
Once You See, You Can't Unsee But You Will Get The Odd Poke In The Eye
  • #2,911
  • May 1, 2013 4:08am May 1, 2013 4:08am
Quoting Seneca pilot
{quote} I look for patterns. Not the conventional patterns that are taught in every trading book, but consistent repeating patterns in price behavior....
Always worth waiting for... thanks SP
  • #2,912
  • May 1, 2013 4:29am May 1, 2013 4:29am
SP,
You are a great trade, as well as a great teacher! Thank you very much for explaining everything in such a big details!!
KK

Quoting Seneca pilot
{quote} I look for patterns. Not the conventional patterns that are taught in every trading book, but consistent repeating patterns in price behavior. Show me something that happens more than fifty percent of the time in a reliable and recognizable way and I can devise a trading system around that thing. Price action, moving average methods, typical price patterns like H&S, triangles, etc. are mostly fifty/fifty propositions. It is tough to trade something that you cannot count on to repeat consistently. To answer your question directly: Price action...
  • #2,913
  • May 1, 2013 8:36am May 1, 2013 8:36am
Quoting Seneca pilot
{quote} I would never argue with a trader who likes to have an indicator agree with a chosen entry. If it makes you feel better to see an over bought condition at a short entry point, or to see divergence at a long off a daily low, more power to you.
Using an indicator in this way can become almost like the use of a talisman or lucky charm. Unless the operator has done a back test and observes a statistical advantage by taking entries that are supported by the indi they would be as well off crossing their fingers throughout their trades. That is only so if they believe in the power of crossing their fingers as much as they believe in the 'truth' of the indicator. As this is as much a psychological game as a rules-following one, the talisman, by giving the trader belief and confidence, can effect trading outcomes. For example being confident in your position may well mean you hold it for more profit past where you would have bailed out without the reassurance given by your indi of choice. Question for all - do you have an indi that operates as a check on your inner self-doubt?
  • #2,914
  • May 1, 2013 8:55am May 1, 2013 8:55am
Quoting stevexyg
{quote} Using an indicator in this way can become almost like the use of a talisman or lucky charm. Unless the operator has done a back test and observes a statistical advantage by taking entries that are supported by the indi they would be as well off crossing their fingers throughout their trades. That is only so if they believe in the power of crossing their fingers as much as they believe in the 'truth' of the indicator. As this is as much a psychological game as a rules-following one, the talisman, by giving the trader belief and confidence,...
I personally do not. I do, however understand the psychological reasoning for the need for some to have a confirmation of some type. Lots of people must have a mental justification behind their trades. They cannot handle the mental stress of being in a trade unless they have some type of justification from an outside source. This is driven by a deeply rooted fear of failure. If the trader is not fully accepting of losses he or she will always seek out this confirmation in their trading.

Amputees feel pain in missing limbs. Persons who have had replacement knees and hips often still limp even though the pain has been gone for months or years. We are creatures of habit and it can take years, even decades, to finally rid ourselves of our natural and deeply rooted fear of failure. It doesn't help that our society reinforces this fear of failure by stressing the importance of excellence as measured by the avoidance of loss at any cost. Losing correctly is the main fundamental skill of a successful trader. Trading is exactly opposite of our natural tendencies and the training we receive from early childhood. This is why so many fail, most of us simply cannot accept the losses and fight the market to try and prove ourselves correct.
  • #2,915
  • May 1, 2013 10:01am May 1, 2013 10:01am
Quoting Seneca pilot
{quote} Losing correctly is the main fundamental skill of a successful trader. Trading is exactly opposite of our natural tendencies and the training we receive from early childhood.
Hell uva line mr Pilot! This one and the one from last week :

"The profitable thing would be to take the small loss" has been added to my arsenal - with your permission of course.

Printed out and viewed as many times as possible.

Keep coming baby
"Always be yourself " Batman
  • #2,916
  • May 1, 2013 10:21am May 1, 2013 10:21am
A bad day in the life of a day trader:

The guy in purple is YOU
The guy in yellow is the MARKET
The ref is your BROKER

Inserted Video


This isn't a bit of whimsy, there is a life changing lesson to be had here. You can almost see how the wrestler in purple is thinking, blaming anyone but himself, uncontrolled anger, passing the blame to others, not accepting his losses and short commings, walking away at the end and casting all fault off his own shoulders. So much energy wasted on blaming the world.

When you learn to act like a man not a boy then you are half way to being a good trader.
  • #2,917
  • May 1, 2013 11:02am May 1, 2013 11:02am
the Eur/usd is testing the 1.3190 weekly. below is a weekly close of 1.3096. it is expected that ecb will cut .50 bps. if cut won't the euro go down? short @ 1.3190 with a target of 1.3100. what do you guys think?

stop loss 1.3208 looks llike its bouncing...
  • #2,918
  • Edited 5:38pm May 1, 2013 11:13am | Edited 5:38pm
Quoting muneeflo
the Eur/usd is testing the 1.3190 weekly. below is a weekly close of 1.3096. it is expected that ecb will cut .50 bps. if cut won't the euro go down? short @ 1.3190 with a target of 1.3100. what do you guys think? stop loss 1.3208 looks llike its bouncing...
This is guessing. The ECB decision will provide a trading opportunity. The FOMC announcement today will provide a trading opportunity. NFP Friday will provide a trading opportunity. Why guess now?
  • #2,919
  • May 1, 2013 11:13am May 1, 2013 11:13am
Quoting muneeflo
the Eur/usd is testing the 1.3190 weekly. below is a weekly close of 1.3096. it is expected that ecb will cut .50 bps. if cut won't the euro go down? short @ 1.3190 with a target of 1.3100. what do you guys think? stop loss 1.3208 looks llike its bouncing...
Maybe - a drop to LO would complete the right hand side of a head and shoulders...
  • #2,920
  • May 1, 2013 11:14am May 1, 2013 11:14am
Quoting Seneca pilot
{quote} This is guessing. The ECB decision will provide a trading opportunity. The FOMC announcement today will provide a trading opportunity. NFP tomorrow will provide a trading opportunity. Why guess now?
I say this because these VERY important announcements require us to throw the levels out the window and trade the news with the method I explained earlier. NFP method will work for these announcements.
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