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Ramblings of a Forex Junkie

  • #2,881
  • Apr 30, 2013 9:07am Apr 30, 2013 9:07am
Quoting biDc
{quote} I definitely see the logic behind that (as well as the evidence) Both occurred right at their respecting opening times. {image}
Beautiful trades, by the way, if you got them.
  • #2,882
  • Apr 30, 2013 9:08am Apr 30, 2013 9:08am
Quoting TantumVerum
{quote} I don't and have been trying to find some info once this thing kept pushing through levels. This thing only hesitated for about 3 minutes watching on the 1m at each level moving up.
Bid never touched 3150 before the cut on my feed. Looks like the defense was successful. Stops being taken out now.
  • #2,883
  • Apr 30, 2013 9:12am Apr 30, 2013 9:12am
Quoting Seneca pilot
{quote} Unusual move given the lack of news. It looks a lot like a CB move only a little slower. Luckily I had made my trades early today and was all out.
Yes, unusual. I guess I don't feel too bad about taking profits a little early, just because this was a bit of a surprise to me. I had a bias thinking we might not move a whole lot during NY today, so I was a little gun shy. I have no business being in anything E/U anymore today. It's just in an area that I don't have sufficient info to trade with little drawdown.
  • #2,884
  • Apr 30, 2013 9:14am Apr 30, 2013 9:14am
Quoting Seneca pilot
{quote} Bid never touched 3150 before the cut on my feed. Looks like the defense was successful. Stops being taken out now.
Was on mine as well.

Possible area for entry on reversal back down, but I am currently not too comfortable with it. Long bars scare me, I know you feed on them
  • #2,885
  • Apr 30, 2013 9:19am Apr 30, 2013 9:19am
Quoting TantumVerum
{quote} Yes, unusual. I guess I don't feel too bad about taking profits a little early, just because this was a bit of a surprise to me. I had a bias thinking we might not move a whole lot during NY today, so I was a little gun shy. I have no business being in anything E/U anymore today. It's just in an area that I don't have sufficient info to trade with little drawdown.
The pattern that I am beginning to see with the option defense is the winning side that builds up all the positions tends to get its stops run after Ten. The losing side gets the profit from their buys (in this case) by pushing through the stops on the winners shorts. They don't get the option pay out but they get the door prize in the form of the stop overshoot profits. Does that make any sense?

This move has broken the Prior week high. That would be my entry on a retrace.
  • #2,886
  • Apr 30, 2013 9:20am Apr 30, 2013 9:20am
Quoting TantumVerum
{quote} Was on mine as well. Possible area for entry on reversal back down, but I am currently not too comfortable with it. Long bars scare me, I know you feed on them
I only love em at a level. Right now this thing is trading in thin air.
  • #2,887
  • Apr 30, 2013 9:27am Apr 30, 2013 9:27am
Quoting Seneca pilot
{quote} The pattern that I am beginning to see with the option defense is the winning side that builds up all the positions tends to get its stops run after Ten. The losing side gets the profit from their buys (in this case) by pushing through the stops on the winners shorts. They don't get the option pay out but they get the door prize in the form of the stop overshoot profits. Does that make any sense? This move has broken the Prior week high. That would be my entry on a retrace.
Yes, this makes complete sense.

Was about to say (but then it started to move up)...
If this 15m forms an inside bar I will take the break down to Prev DH and watch price with possible exit. This area would be approximately half the move up. This would be with very low position size, just to get it out of my system.

Edit: I would also like to say that trading can be rather boring waiting for entries at times, but when these options come into play it brings some excitement when watching. You get to see two sides of the market battle with large positions and there is a winner and a loser, but then if things go right you can clean up the scraps.
  • #2,888
  • Apr 30, 2013 9:34am Apr 30, 2013 9:34am
Quoting TantumVerum
{quote} Yes, this makes complete sense. Was about to say (but then it started to move up)... If this 15m forms an inside bar I will take the break down to Prev DH and watch price with possible exit. This area would be approximately half the move up. This would be with very low position size, just to get it out of my system.
The next weekly high is up at 1.32. I would probably take a stab at that if we get there today.
  • #2,889
  • Apr 30, 2013 9:44am Apr 30, 2013 9:44am
SP--your levels have already improved my trading. Thanks much.
  • #2,890
  • Apr 30, 2013 9:44am Apr 30, 2013 9:44am
This move really smells like a CB thing. It is all dollar selling. EJ went up but never even broke the current day high. UJ is in the basement. All dollar selling. Dow and ES are both down a little so not selling dollars to buy securities. Only thing left is Ben driving down the dollar. None of this really matters but its fun to try and guess who is steering the ship.
  • #2,891
  • Apr 30, 2013 9:45am Apr 30, 2013 9:45am
Quoting IRISH37
SP--your levels have already improved my trading. Thanks much.
Any time.
  • #2,892
  • Apr 30, 2013 9:49am Apr 30, 2013 9:49am
Quoting Seneca pilot
This move really smells like a CB thing. It is all dollar selling. EJ went up but never even broke the current day high. UJ is in the basement. All dollar selling. Dow and ES are both down a little so not selling dollars to buy securities. Only thing left is Ben driving down the dollar. None of this really matters but its fun to try and guess who is steering the ship.
Did you also happen to see the exotic option DNT E/U note on IFR this morning (through 6/28)?
  • #2,893
  • Apr 30, 2013 10:44am Apr 30, 2013 10:44am
Quoting TantumVerum
{quote} Did you also happen to see the exotic option DNT E/U note on IFR this morning (through 6/28)?
No missed it. Where is it, 1.35?
  • #2,894
  • Apr 30, 2013 10:51am Apr 30, 2013 10:51am
OK. After waiting on hold for over twenty minutes with MB today trying to find out what is holding up my clearance to deposit I am just going to do the new model account with Oanda. I had high hopes for MB but this kind of customer service won't work. What if I had an open position and my computer crashed and my phone was dead (it could happen). If it took them half an hour to answer my call and get me flat I would be ready to kill someone. Better if I just go with another brokerage. I am checking out one that Jack Larkin mentioned. They are an IB for ILQ and NY based so maybe they will be a better fit for me. I live in the DC area so I could probably drive up to NY and close my positions personally before MB answered the phone.
  • #2,895
  • Apr 30, 2013 10:54am Apr 30, 2013 10:54am
Quoting Seneca pilot
{quote} No missed it. Where is it, 1.35?
Cliffs of note...

- 28 June 1.2850/1.3315 DNT recently traded 6.0% on EUR 2mln (tv 2.6%)
- Buyer receives payout if neither strike touched
- Similar structures bought of late

Was posted at 07:39
  • #2,896
  • Apr 30, 2013 11:07am Apr 30, 2013 11:07am
Quoting TantumVerum
{quote} Cliffs of note... - 28 June 1.2850/1.3315 DNT recently traded 6.0% on EUR 2mln (tv 2.6%) - Buyer receives payout if neither strike touched - Similar structures bought of late Was posted at 07:39
I will go back and look it up. I got done trading early this morning and never looked at IFR again.
  • #2,897
  • Apr 30, 2013 2:21pm Apr 30, 2013 2:21pm
Today almost seemed perfect..I'm gonna start paying more attention to time
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  • #2,898
  • Apr 30, 2013 2:44pm Apr 30, 2013 2:44pm
Quoting biDc
Today almost seemed perfect..I'm gonna start paying more attention to time {image}
Your lunch time short was the third time at the level. I would probably have passed on that short. Excellent work though. If you have the discipline to take the trades when there is money on the line you will do fine. Keep the risk low and trade at the right places and you really cannot blow an account. I have to tell you it won't be this easy every day but I am sure you are prepared for that.
  • #2,899
  • Apr 30, 2013 3:02pm Apr 30, 2013 3:02pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
{quote} Your lunch time short was the third time at the level. I would probably have passed on that short. Excellent work though. If you have the discipline to take the trades when there is money on the line you will do fine. Keep the risk low and trade at the right places and you really cannot blow an account. I have to tell you it won't be this easy every day but I am sure you are prepared for that.
Thanks SP duely noted.

I was aware that it is 3rd test as well but went with it anyway because it is lunch. I think I was influenced by the fact that the pound bounced off the daily low 3x. But definitely, I wouldn't trade a 3rd touch without at least price action next time.
  • #2,900
  • Apr 30, 2013 9:17pm Apr 30, 2013 9:17pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
OK. After waiting on hold for over twenty minutes with MB today trying to find out what is holding up my clearance to deposit I am just going to do the new model account with Oanda. I had high hopes for MB but this kind of customer service won't work. What if I had an open position and my computer crashed and my phone was dead (it could happen). If it took them half an hour to answer my call and get me flat I would be ready to kill someone. Better if I just go with another brokerage. I am checking out one that Jack Larkin mentioned. They are an...

Look at Ideal FX Interactive brokers. Seriously.

http://www.interactivebrokers.com/en...b_entity%3Dllc
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