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Cesarnc's market talk, gossips, rumours & fun

  • #44,141
  • Apr 26, 2013 3:08am Apr 26, 2013 3:08am
Quoting chonchy
{quote} FXMindset, everybody here know you are a fair person, I'm the one that let you down, I apologize, I can't come here no more, because i lost all the trading money and have no more internet in my house, no money for nothing anymore, I overspoused to the market like somebody said and lost all, good luck to you guys with this markets, arriverechy, solom, good buy, selavi........hasta luego..........good luck to all, and love you all, no homo is being good knowing you all..........
as Sir Smikester said u have my great respect sir carlos,I am now in another island and will check soon things that ur email on next week
Market's tough this 2 weeks but with the right Patient,Disciplines and MM then you can rules the market in one day

If am doing anything wrong also then am apologize to you,

God bless you and your family Sir Carlos


Amen
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #44,142
  • Apr 26, 2013 3:15am Apr 26, 2013 3:15am

Choncy :- just have a break , dust yourself down and sortyour shit out.

A timeout , will re invigorate you ……….

Anywaya man that doesn’t screw up .. doesn’t really achieve anything.

I have missed your contribution to this thread.
  • #44,143
  • Apr 26, 2013 2:31pm Apr 26, 2013 2:31pm
Quoting parco
can i?
hi parco, what ever it is ,,send it, we like art work too
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #44,144
  • Apr 26, 2013 2:53pm Apr 26, 2013 2:53pm
Quoting billytt
{quote} hi parco, what ever it is ,,send it, we like art work too
thank you sir
if you do not like it... put me in the trash. become accustomed to this

Inserted Video
  • #44,145
  • Apr 26, 2013 11:53pm Apr 26, 2013 11:53pm
Quoting smikester
{quote} Thanks for that I'll-be-back. I know there are some who don't agree with me. Skynet for one. Haven't seen him around recently.
You're welcome
By the way, GS (publicly) forecasting a rate cut, so I'm thinking there won't be.
I'm thinking a kite monkey pattern to even 3340 before bear town.
Just an idea, not saying buy now, but if we get there could look for some pins or bearish TL breaks on lower TF's.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #44,146
  • Apr 27, 2013 12:33am Apr 27, 2013 12:33am
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} You're welcome By the way, GS (publicly) forecasting a rate cut, so I'm thinking there won't be. I'm thinking a kite monkey pattern to even 3340 before bear town. Just an idea, not saying buy now, but if we get there could look for some pins or bearish TL breaks on lower TF's.
Also, thinking a bullish Kite Monkey pattern may happen on GU upto near 1.58 area, followed by a 1500 pip sell off to 1.42xx area to complete the mother of all Weekly/Monthly bearish Kite Monkey pattern.

And same on Euro also.

Again, no real interest in buying unless we get a very good retrace on GU first but looking for signs to sell if we get near 1.58.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #44,147
  • Apr 27, 2013 2:07am Apr 27, 2013 2:07am
My Euro daily Kite Monkey Pattern in play.
That 23 fib also translates as the 50 fib retrace from recent high to swing low.

Thinking we will consolidate then move up to thick channel line (see more clearly on the weekly chart.
Sorry the picture is cut off but don't know what is going on with the new computer
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Come with me if you want to live....
  • #44,148
  • Apr 27, 2013 6:03am Apr 27, 2013 6:03am
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} Also, thinking a bullish Kite Monkey pattern may happen on GU upto near 1.58 area, followed by a 1500 pip sell off to 1.42xx area to complete the mother of all Weekly/Monthly bearish Kite Monkey pattern. And same on Euro also. Again, no real interest in buying unless we get a very good retrace on GU first but looking for signs to sell if we get near 1.58.
Thanks for the charts. I think I see what you are getting at and I agree that is a possible scenario. My recent analysis for the Euro was very bearish as my main interest in the Swissy looks very dollar positive and unemployment figures coming out of France and Spain bear that out but... The market remains more buoyant than I would expect. Obviously it's not in anyone's interest for Europe and the Euro to fail.

So, yes I understand what you are saying except for Kite Monkey. Is this something you have coined or something I am ignorant of? Can you explain in greater detail or give me a link please? I did Google it and it sent me back to you!
Gone to a better place
  • #44,149
  • Apr 27, 2013 6:20am Apr 27, 2013 6:20am
Parco your posts are golden! The rest of the thread is getting a bit like Gorton on a Friday night/Saturday morning.
Gone to a better place
  • #44,150
  • Apr 27, 2013 8:13am Apr 27, 2013 8:13am
Quoting smikester
{quote} Thanks for the charts. I think I see what you are getting at and I agree that is a possible scenario. My recent analysis for the Euro was very bearish as my main interest in the Swissy looks very dollar positive and unemployment figures coming out of France and Spain bear that out but... The market remains more buoyant than I would expect. Obviously it's not in anyone's interest for Europe and the Euro to fail. So, yes I understand what you are saying except for Kite Monkey. Is this something you have coined or something I am ignorant of?...
No, just blending my own term and one of Ings Fundamental humorous jabs at the techies patterns that's all. I liked his run of play at it so was just having some fun on the weekend.

Bloody Rhino and charlatan and others, he was on a roll.
I understand his and others sentiments, it's hard to imagine market makers producing patterns on a chart as if it helps fill in their day and produce a laugh, but hey, you never know.

I don't know much about fundies so I've got to use something
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #44,151
  • Apr 27, 2013 8:26am Apr 27, 2013 8:26am
Not sure if you have seen this formation: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=26188
Gone to a better place
  • #44,152
  • Apr 27, 2013 1:06pm Apr 27, 2013 1:06pm
Quoting smikester
Parco your posts are golden! The rest of the thread is getting a bit like Gorton on a Friday night/Saturday morning.
Inserted Video


thank you smikester
  • #44,153
  • Apr 27, 2013 4:30pm Apr 27, 2013 4:30pm
Quoting smikester
Not sure if you have seen this formation: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=26188
Yes, I've seen that page once before, a creative term
Maybe twin peaks or something also.

(waiting for some art work on that one) he he...
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #44,154
  • Apr 27, 2013 11:33pm Apr 27, 2013 11:33pm
Quoting smikester
{quote} Thanks for the charts. I think I see what you are getting at and I agree that is a possible scenario. My recent analysis for the Euro was very bearish as my main interest in the Swissy looks very dollar positive and unemployment figures coming out of France and Spain bear that out but... The market remains more buoyant than I would expect. Obviously it's not in anyone's interest for Europe and the Euro to fail. So, yes I understand what you are saying except for Kite Monkey. Is this something you have coined or something I am ignorant of?...

Hi Smikester,

To me, Swissy still looks USD weak despite this rally the last 2 weeks. TL retest is now completed and daily seems to want to go lower for another bearish Kite Monkey towards the main broken (weekly) wedge TL below it towards 0.9 area (shown on the weekly chart) . Daily candles also look bearish.

Sorry it is cut off again, don't know why.

USD seems to have been finding it very hard to reclaim lost ground since August 2011 on the monthly despite the strong Sept bullish reversal.

My take anyway .
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Come with me if you want to live....
  • #44,155
  • Apr 30, 2013 12:33am Apr 30, 2013 12:33am
...
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  • #44,156
  • Apr 30, 2013 1:35am Apr 30, 2013 1:35am
Quoting 2+2=4ex
... {image}
Outstanding
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #44,157
  • Apr 30, 2013 9:02am Apr 30, 2013 9:02am
Hello Ing, was away with other diversions from FF..
Thank you for sharing the NBT/Sentiment methods & the "april showers yen flowers" heads up on the yen futures chart..
Here's what I see for the DollarYen April/May seasonality, since 1980 when the M/T bias is down, april showers might bring yen flowers as you stated.. however, when the M/T bias is up, april showers tends to bring more yen showers, or more shower after a short period of flowers..

http://sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net/hphoto...90811378_n.png

need Carlos to inject more Cesarnc zest & fun here..
  • #44,158
  • Apr 30, 2013 4:08pm Apr 30, 2013 4:08pm
Quoting fibstalker
.... Scenario 2. If the resistance at 1.3100-05 sees participation on the short side, this could help price breaking the 1.3000 level and bring price slighly lower into the next area of support and long participation starting at the 1.2980. There price could also find the retail participation buying the test of the 20-day SMA. We could see a bounce towards new highs or at least towards the next resistance area starting at 1.3240....
The second scenario of my last review (see related video on my blog as well) took place and price never moved below 1.2927 which has been a very good stop-loss. The 1.2980 area of support worked above the larger area of support starting at 1.2900, which is holding since the beginning of April. Indeed, the related stop-loss level at 1.2715 (not shown in the below picture) held so far.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1367355901



The two scenarios going forward are (please refer to the above picture):


Scenario 1. The 1.3230 is a very important area and it could show participation on the downside. Notice that price held the 1.2990 area of support with a first target in the 1.3310 area, well above the 1.3230. If price is capable of piearcing the 1.3230 area I anticipate a continuation higher with a move into 1.3310 and a continuation to and above 1.3354. If the 1.3354 level is broken on the upside the 1.41 final swing target will be confirmed.

Scenario 2. If the 1.3230 important area holds and offer significant resistance, we could see a move lower due to the “sell in May and go away” effect, as well as, a reaction to BCE lowering interest rates to 0.5% on Thursday. In that case we price could move lower to retest the 1.2980 area (or lower).

As usual I am interested in your thoughts and ideas and you can watch the video related to the explanation of the above scenarios on my blog.

Cheers
-fibstalker
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #44,159
  • May 2, 2013 10:17am May 2, 2013 10:17am
Are we seeing a race to the bottom in currencies from the major trading nations in the world? Countries such as China, S Korea, Indonesia and co have all done a marvelous job of manipulating their currencies one way or … Continue reading → http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2013/0...d-for-exports/

Inserted Video
  • #44,160
  • May 3, 2013 6:17pm May 3, 2013 6:17pm
Quoting fibstalker
Scenario 2. If the 1.3230 important area holds and offer significant resistance, we could see a move lower due to the “sell in May and go away” effect, as well as, a reaction to BCE lowering interest rates to 0.5% on Thursday. In that case we price could move lower to retest the 1.2980 area (or lower)....
Scenario 2 of my last review posted on April 30th is being played. The 1.3230 area was very important and I have been watching it carefully. We had strong participation on the downside that negates the bullish scenario I have been following so far.

Indeed, today the market has confirmed the shorts by holding the 3140 area of resistance (stop-loss above 1.3170 was never pierced). This setup has 1st target at 1.3000 and second target around the 1.2910 area of previous support. Below 1.2714 the bullish scenario, already in trouble, can be cancelled altogether. If Scenario 1 (see description hereunder) plays out the first target will be at the 1.2520 area.


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1367622898




The above picture shows the two current scenarios:


Scenario 1. I do not anticipate the 1.2980 level to hold because it is going to be a second test. Thus we could see price slice through that level and move right into the 1.2910 area where we could get a small bounce. If the shorts are real there would be a continuaton after price tests the 1.2980 area from below.

Scenario 2. If the 1.2910 area holds we could still see a resumed move higher. This scenario, however, seems a low probability scenario at the moment.


As usual I am interested in your thoughts and ideas.

On my blog there is an up to date video featuring the daily and the 4-hour charts.

Have a great weekend

-fibstalker
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
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