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NZD/USD

  • #1,581
  • Apr 26, 2013 7:19am Apr 26, 2013 7:19am
USA GDP report around the corner! Hope for good figures or otherwise .86 to ruin the weekend!
  • #1,582
  • Apr 28, 2013 12:24am Apr 28, 2013 12:24am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Hi friend Same boat Short 8532 8510 85 8490 8480 8470 Looking to gain next month's target profits. Reality is NZ above 85 is unsustainable that is it will cause financial crises for NZ economy and above 86 I think we will see direct government intervention.So last time this baby went 88 was in 2011 and stayed there very short time. This move to me is classic Gartley pattern AB=CD {image}


Im gonna see how market reacts to the start of May and in particular US equities, If its another sell off then I will look to hold, if it don't then maybe consider closing earlier, either 10% on Acc or 300%. either way I will be happy,

good spot on the Gartley
Money never sleeps...
  • #1,583
  • Apr 29, 2013 6:12am Apr 29, 2013 6:12am
WTF with this shit?
  • #1,584
  • Apr 29, 2013 6:17am Apr 29, 2013 6:17am
Quoting namitak007
WTF with this shit?
hopefully might get a little higher u8ntil New York open. 0.86 would be nice
Money never sleeps...
  • #1,585
  • Apr 29, 2013 6:18am Apr 29, 2013 6:18am
Quoting namitak007
WTF with this shit?
waiting for .8590 to sell an additional portion.. I guess this follows good figures last week in new Zealand and unchanged rate. nzd is the only g10 currency to outperform usd in 2013
  • #1,586
  • Apr 29, 2013 6:25am Apr 29, 2013 6:25am
I would only look at shorting around 0.8660 level. But I'll watch the PA and see how it holds up, otherwise I might take a short around 0.8570.
  • #1,587
  • Apr 29, 2013 6:39am Apr 29, 2013 6:39am
everyone seems to agree that the kiwi is overvalued, but what intermediate high will we reach before it falls back to .84 or below? wait for an entry like the .8670 we've seen before, or 0.87 and possibly miss out? seems to me anything above 0.825 is a solid entry, after that "enjoy" the ride. add more shorts if the price climbs into less and less sustainable territory.
  • #1,588
  • Apr 29, 2013 7:15am Apr 29, 2013 7:15am
the kiwi is overvalued, that does not mean it can't go higher. will we see 0.8660 again or even 0.8705 as suggested? maybe, but i believe chances that we see 0.8400 before the end of May are higher (no matter where the intermediate top may be). I thought 0.85 was a good entry for a short position, so anything above is just great. Don't wait too long or miss the opportunity.
  • #1,589
  • Apr 29, 2013 9:27am Apr 29, 2013 9:27am
  •  Noeliu
  • | Joined Apr 2013 | Status: Hit SL?? Clicked the wrong button | 51 Posts
I have shorts on NZD/USD at 0.8390 / 0.8480 / 0.8540
Would 1.8800 be enough SL?
  • #1,590
  • Apr 29, 2013 10:25am Apr 29, 2013 10:25am
Quoting Noeliu
I have shorts on NZD/USD at 0.8390 / 0.8480 / 0.8540 Would 1.8800 be enough SL?

1.88?

if you mean 0.88 then I would have to ask do you need to place a stop there? can your account handle more?

likelihood of getting there is v slim and the chance of a strong reversal from anything more than 0.86 is high
Money never sleeps...
  • #1,591
  • Apr 29, 2013 10:44am Apr 29, 2013 10:44am
Quoting inpatient
{quote} 1.88? if you mean 0.88 then I would have to ask do you need to place a stop there? can your account handle more? likelihood of getting there is v slim and the chance of a strong reversal from anything more than 0.86 is high
It's interesting what you're saying. Do you suggest him to just go without a SL? If yes, then don't you think that this can lead to MC? As I'm observing the pair its close to the record highs, but nothing has shown in terms of TA that the trend has reversed or is about to reverse. The utrend is very strong and it doesn't slow down even for a moment. Even if its super overbought that doesn't mean it will not go up above 0.9. I don't think it would be clever to sell now, but I'll be happy to sell at the highs of 0,863 or 0,88 in case the candle pattern will show me the way.
  • #1,592
  • Apr 29, 2013 11:31am Apr 29, 2013 11:31am
Quoting sadstory
{quote} It's interesting what you're saying. Do you suggest him to just go without a SL? If yes, then don't you think that this can lead to MC? As I'm observing the pair its close to the record highs, but nothing has shown in terms of TA that the trend has reversed or is about to reverse. The utrend is very strong and it doesn't slow down even for a moment. Even if its super overbought that doesn't mean it will not go up above 0.9. I don't think it would be clever to sell now, but I'll be happy to sell at the highs of 0,863 or 0,88 in case the candle...

What I am asking is that whether his stop is actually an enforced one leading to a MC. His trades indicate that he would be sitting on a 300 pip plus per trade loss at 0.88 which for those trading with a stop seems alot. If he is already down 300 pips per trade then what difference would 0.89 make if his acc can handle it, every 100 pips up increases the chance of a reversal.

I don't trade with a stop but I also don't place trades I cant cover regardless of where it might go.

1 more day in April,
Money never sleeps...
  • #1,593
  • Apr 29, 2013 1:50pm Apr 29, 2013 1:50pm
Quoting iNZane
everyone seems to agree that the kiwi is overvalued, but what intermediate high will we reach before it falls back to .84 or below? wait for an entry like the .8670 we've seen before, or 0.87 and possibly miss out? seems to me anything above 0.825 is a solid entry, after that "enjoy" the ride. add more shorts if the price climbs into less and less sustainable territory.
Hi

Living in NZ Auckland
You would think it would be easy to figure things out.
It does not take much to rattle the NZ,it can drop like a stone at any time.
Much like the YEN
I do a have short in play,an a pending short 86.6 TP 84
Yes its a up trend,but get caught in a long above 0.85
Traders talking 0.87
Good I will short higher up,it works every time.
  • #1,594
  • Apr 29, 2013 1:55pm Apr 29, 2013 1:55pm
Quoting eliteincome
{quote} Hi Living in NZ Auckland You would think it would be easy to figure things out. It does not take much to rattle the NZ,it can drop like a stone at any time. Much like the YEN I do a have short in play,an a pending short 86.6 TP 84 Yes its a up trend,but get caught in a long above 0.85 Traders talking 0.87 Good I will short higher up,it works every time.

agreed
Money never sleeps...
  • #1,595
  • Apr 29, 2013 2:29pm Apr 29, 2013 2:29pm
interesting reading, any comments?
http://www.interest.co.nz/currencies...-when-aud-goes
  • #1,596
  • Apr 29, 2013 3:55pm Apr 29, 2013 3:55pm
Quoting iNZane
interesting reading, any comments? http://www.interest.co.nz/currencies...-when-aud-goes
A mechnical view of market though. Has n't taken trade surplus and chch insurance payments into the consideration.
NZ goes up because it is relatively small market amoung G10 the biggest player in KIWI is australian banks and PIMCO. They are the one mainly pushing the rates up.
  • #1,597
  • Apr 29, 2013 6:19pm Apr 29, 2013 6:19pm
  •  Noeliu
  • | Joined Apr 2013 | Status: Hit SL?? Clicked the wrong button | 51 Posts
Quoting inpatient
{quote} 1.88? if you mean 0.88 then I would have to ask do you need to place a stop there? can your account handle more? likelihood of getting there is v slim and the chance of a strong reversal from anything more than 0.86 is high
Hi! Sorry, I mean 0.88
Thanks for the info, and hope to get to 0.83 soon
  • #1,598
  • Apr 29, 2013 6:29pm Apr 29, 2013 6:29pm
thanks, the PIMCO connection was news to me!

Insurance: The governments handling of the quake is a bigger disaster than the quake itself. Laws were changed overnight, insurers were not the only ones to get burned. A large portion of the insurance money never reached the owners, CERA handed it to Fletcher Building and other entities that are nicely connected. Owners were disowned, but as it was done in accordance with law, it's all "legal". It did create a serious doubt in how the country applies the rule of law, and it will put a damper on investment for some time. So agreed a lot of money made it into NZ with insurance payouts, but a major fraction of that will not go to rebuild. Longer term insurance rates have at least doubled for commercial insurance. International re-insurance needed to adapt to the increased regulatory risk from New Zealand, so capital outflows for insurance will be large for years to come.
Quoting eximir
{quote} A mechnical view of market though. Has n't taken trade surplus and chch insurance payments into the consideration. NZ goes up because it is relatively small market amoung G10 the biggest player in KIWI is australian banks and PIMCO. They are the one mainly pushing the rates up.
  • #1,599
  • Apr 29, 2013 7:09pm Apr 29, 2013 7:09pm
Quoting iNZane
thanks, the PIMCO connection was news to me! Insurance: The governments handling of the quake is a bigger disaster than the quake itself. Laws were changed overnight, insurers were not the only ones to get burned. A large portion of the insurance money never reached the owners, CERA handed it to Fletcher Building and other entities that are nicely connected. Owners were disowned, but as it was done in accordance with law, it's all "legal". It did create a serious doubt in how the country applies the rule of law, and it will put a damper on investment...
What did you think CITI group have to do in NZ such small pound for this big fish. I have seen they call individuals and business offering them 20k or more worth of credit cards! Borrowing free money from FED buying NZ government or commercial bond enjoying interest rate different in the mean time selling debt to NZ'ers at rate of 19% min per annum.

We have a huge capital inflow ( relative term give. The size of NZ economy) from Aussie to NZ at the time being for two reasons, a) insurance payments b)trade surplus between NZ and Aussie.
What is worrying me is private debt which no less than 60% NZ GDP size-wise and and the whole debt is well over 180% of GDP. Just image the day that government money is far cheaper than commercial bonds which literally all this private debt being sourced internationally.
That is scary, I mean who borrows money to pay tax? I believe many people do in NZ.
  • #1,600
  • Apr 29, 2013 10:33pm Apr 29, 2013 10:33pm
Hi guys
Added 2 more shorts at 8550 and 8532 total 7 shorts
I have 2 accounts and both loaded on NZ shorts
To me recent up drive is simply end of the month profit taking.I anticipate May sell off.One thing to consider is nothing stays up too long in forex.
I trade daily and Weekly charts hence to me everything is fine.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
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