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AUD/USD

  • #57,861
  • Apr 26, 2013 3:48am Apr 26, 2013 3:48am
Quoting diggo
{quote} USD index looks like it has more room to drop.. increases our chances of getting back to 1.04min. Shorts pending there. Could see a really nice drop next week.

100% agree.
Use me as a contrarian indicator
  • #57,862
  • Apr 26, 2013 5:26am Apr 26, 2013 5:26am
..

best,
Jonas


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Hero calls followed by margin calls...
  • #57,863
  • Edited 7:42pm Apr 27, 2013 7:30pm | Edited 7:42pm
It has been a pretty tight range. Fundamentals are stacked up against the Aussie. Gold looking top heavy. I strongly favor a retest of the 1.015x support in the coming week(s). This will be the 4th test and I am quite confident we can breakout below..

Below this level I am looking for another test of 0.96x.. A monthly close below 0.97 will open up 0.86x. We never had a proper retrace after the 2008 low. More often then not, we would be back to 0.86x minimum before we can make an all-time HH.

But we can deal with that when we come to it. Enjoy the weekend
  • #57,864
  • Apr 27, 2013 10:53pm Apr 27, 2013 10:53pm
Quoting diggo
It has been a pretty tight range. Fundamentals are stacked up against the Aussie. Gold looking top heavy. I strongly favor a retest of the 1.015x support in the coming week(s). This will be the 4th test and I am quite confident we can breakout below.. Below this level I am looking for another test of 0.96x.. A monthly close below 0.97 will open up 0.86x. We never had a proper retrace after the 2008 low. More often then not, we would be back to 0.86x minimum before we can make an all-time HH. But we can deal with that when we come to it. Enjoy the...
Also, probably not the best time to short the US dollar.
  • #57,865
  • Apr 28, 2013 2:10am Apr 28, 2013 2:10am
Quoting 2+2=4ex
{quote} Also, probably not the best time to short the US dollar.
traditional selloff in equities for may 1 would do the trick.

10220 will reverse my long bias.
  • #57,866
  • Apr 28, 2013 1:57pm Apr 28, 2013 1:57pm
Quoting diggo
{quote} Gold just reached it's daily retrace target. 1550 is very wishful thinking. It's a good time to start looking to short gold now, should see a decent drop next week.. Will bring AUD down with it.
Just back to this point. AUD is a commodity currency as we all know. In fact we have an 80%+ correlation between gold and AUD.

Gold and silver obviously broke a major support and turned bearish recently. GBP/USD also broke major support recently. All 3 are now going for massive targets way below.

The Aussie will follow gold. It is setting up very nicely for the bears, exactly like the aforementioned. The bears have been in control since mid 2011 now. I believe we are on the brink of a big down move here.

0.97 is the min. target now. This could be within weeks, not months. The question is, will it hold this time? It may want to make another hump, which will take several more months to develop. However, I see bears everywhere. It's not looking good now.. I favour a break below 0.97 to much lower targets this year.

I'll talk about them tomorrow. I need to catch some sleep.
  • #57,867
  • Apr 28, 2013 6:27pm Apr 28, 2013 6:27pm
Why does everybody think Aussie is a sell, but it will start gaining this week, this is a great support area in daily and weekly chart and there is no fundamental to push the price down.
  • #57,868
  • Edited Apr 29, 2013 1:22am Apr 28, 2013 8:36pm | Edited Apr 29, 2013 1:22am
Quoting holmes
Why does everybody think Aussie is a sell, but it will start gaining this week, this is a great support area in daily and weekly chart and there is no fundamental to push the price down.
I agree with you.. What I see from chart Aussie is still strong.. I believe 1.0325 is not a problem for this week..

I have long AJ.. buy in dip..
  • #57,869
  • Apr 28, 2013 10:01pm Apr 28, 2013 10:01pm
Yes it is not a bad place to go long and the daily and weekly are showing support, so it may well go up. Just be cautious and keep an eye on the AUD/JPY monthly pin bar currently forming. Some big news coming soon which will have a big effect, and just remember if it does break this daily range and weekly support then it will go down hard due to all the stops. I am short as I believe it is heading lower.

Quoting holmes
Why does everybody think Aussie is a sell, but it will start gaining this week, this is a great support area in daily and weekly chart and there is no fundamental to push the price down.
  • #57,870
  • Apr 28, 2013 11:21pm Apr 28, 2013 11:21pm
Quoting holmes
Why does everybody think Aussie is a sell, but it will start gaining this week, this is a great support area in daily and weekly chart and there is no fundamental to push the price down.
Not sure if you were referring to me.. But I never said AUD is a sell in the short term. In fact I've been waiting for it to retrace to 1.04 minimum for a week now.. It's a normal bounce, happens more times than not. If it does reach 1.04, it will be a great medium term short to target 1.015/0.97

BTW, I would like to hear your fundamental analysis.
  • #57,871
  • Apr 28, 2013 11:34pm Apr 28, 2013 11:34pm
If aud can close and move higher than 1.0360's last week resistance, it will go higher to near 1.0470.

There's always long and short to be play, just try to get in a better position of a previous support/ resistance.
  • #57,872
  • Apr 29, 2013 12:44am Apr 29, 2013 12:44am
Quoting diggo
{quote} Not sure if you were referring to me.. But I never said AUD is a sell in the short term. In fact I've been waiting for it to retrace to 1.04 minimum for a week now.. It's a normal bounce, happens more times than not. If it does reach 1.04, it will be a great medium term short to target 1.015/0.97 BTW, I would like to hear your fundamental analysis.
After gold falling heavily AUD lost ground but Goldman has closed the bet against gold and it has bounced back however Aud hasn' gained that much and the reason is that Q gdp of china was disappointing and it has very direct impact on manufacturing pmi which will come about on Wed, although I remember several times that they haven' shown the same direction, any how the only reason which may push strong Aud down is the risk of global economy cooling down which will be clear on Wed however since then after Japan easing heavily it will continue gaining.
  • #57,873
  • Apr 29, 2013 1:22am Apr 29, 2013 1:22am
Quoting k3nshinz3139
{quote} I agree with you.. What I see from chart Aussie is still strong.. I believe 1.0325 is not a problem for this week.. I have long AJ.. buy in dip..


Target hit.. 1.0325..

AJ close with 40 pips
  • #57,874
  • Apr 29, 2013 1:23am Apr 29, 2013 1:23am
Quoting k3nshinz3139
{quote} Target hit.. 1.0325.. AJ close with 40 pips
yihaaaaa
thanksu my friend 400 k on hand
Trade with passion
  • #57,875
  • Apr 29, 2013 1:29am Apr 29, 2013 1:29am
Quoting jenoss
{quote} yihaaaaa thanksu my friend 400 k on hand
Congratulation !! haha..

  • #57,876
  • Apr 29, 2013 2:06am Apr 29, 2013 2:06am
Hi

I trade on multiple currencies. My system placed buy order in AUDUSD at 1.03092. Long position is still active.
Love for all; Hatred for none.
  • #57,877
  • Edited Apr 30, 2013 1:53am Apr 29, 2013 2:12am | Edited Apr 30, 2013 1:53am
I have open another short 1.0365.

TP 1.03 SL 1.039..
  • #57,878
  • Apr 29, 2013 2:46am Apr 29, 2013 2:46am
Quoting k3nshinz3139
{quote} So your system has set TP target? Look like the bull strength still strong in AU pair.. I have short at 1.033
i follow u sell at 336 hahaha
Trade with passion
  • #57,879
  • Apr 29, 2013 2:50am Apr 29, 2013 2:50am
Quoting jenoss
{quote} i follow u sell at 336 hahaha
Same here mate. Waiting for 1.036X to sell the AU.
  • #57,880
  • Apr 29, 2013 2:53am Apr 29, 2013 2:53am
Remember put SL if not enough margin.. It is possible go to 1.04 before drop to 1.01 area..
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