And there is one more nice divergence with pin bars on AUDNZD, but I think this is a bit risky to trade, because there is a close resistance.
Do you agree?
Do you agree?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
james16 Chart Thread
- #124,982
- Apr 27, 2013 6:04am Apr 27, 2013 6:04am
- Joined Aug 2010 | Status: Tööröh | 14,292 Posts
And there is one more nice divergence with pin bars on AUDNZD, but I think this is a bit risky to trade, because there is a close resistance. Do you agree? {image}
peace,
Jonas
Hero calls followed by margin calls...
- #124,983
- Apr 27, 2013 6:16am Apr 27, 2013 6:16am
- Joined Nov 2007 | Status: left CanaryWharf desk-tea break | 24,286 Posts
but maybe chf will pull back unless gap down under ,I dont think so tho ,
poss not against jpy
{quote} thats the intention of my post
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
- #124,984
- Apr 27, 2013 6:18am Apr 27, 2013 6:18am
- Joined Aug 2010 | Status: Tööröh | 14,292 Posts
Hero calls followed by margin calls...
- #124,985
- Apr 27, 2013 6:25am Apr 27, 2013 6:25am
- Joined Nov 2007 | Status: left CanaryWharf desk-tea break | 24,286 Posts
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
- #124,986
- Apr 27, 2013 7:42am Apr 27, 2013 7:42am
{quote} One thing I do know about trading is this. Finding setups is easy, but knowing how to enter them and knowing when to exit is insanely difficult (for me anyway). It just feels like if I'd have taken that pin the FTA would've held and price would've reversed and taken me out but it just seems like some people just know which ones to take and I can't work out how y'all do it.
{quote} Good strong bars at good strong locations with good strong stories normally have a better chance of blowing past traffic areas as compared to iffy bars in tight sideways markets with lack of confluence and supporting evidence.
Thanks for posting these questions! And thank you Ghous for your detailed answer
I've been thinking about that myself for a few weeks now...
It seems I'm stuck at the BE point. sometimes +ve sometimes -ve , never much, but never satisfying either. I strongly believe I am missing something to "click" to go beyond this stage.
It seems to me that this question is somehow related to the "what return can get weekly / monthly / daily / hourly ??", which in turn raises the much more interesting question of the strategy the trade follows to "cut the losses short" and "let the profits run"... as you nicely said, HItten...
I just started backtesting few days ago. I wish I had done this much earlier! In my opinion, some answers can be found by backtesting. My goal is to test 10-y data from 5 pairs at least, only taking obvious PA, and testing different exit strategies.
The difficulty, as Ghous pointed out, is to document, for each and every trade of the backtest, not only the setup and its location, but also the confluence it has, in terms of supporting elements and/or pattern breakout... as well as price reaction at difficult areas.
I can't get out of my mind Jarroo's quote of "a high quality setup is a high momentum setup". I understood this as "price has to break hard the setup". But I forgot it could mean " AND price should pierce the FTA without blinking".
Hope days would last 48h!
Future will tell how I deal with these questions
Slow & steady
- #124,989
- Apr 27, 2013 10:14am Apr 27, 2013 10:14am
{quote} {image} {image} peace, Jonas
Anyhow, I must apologize for borrowing your charts. I've added a few scribbles of my own, maybe they make a bit of sense.
Regards,
Spring.
- #124,990
- Apr 27, 2013 10:57am Apr 27, 2013 10:57am
- Joined Sep 2005 | Status: J16 Senior Member | 13,635 Posts
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
- #124,991
- Apr 27, 2013 10:59am Apr 27, 2013 10:59am
- Joined Sep 2005 | Status: J16 Senior Member | 13,635 Posts
I think the beauty of Jarroo's methodology is that, if price closes above the or below the swing point of the SFP area, it gives us another oportunity to get in on the pullback as, we are looking for PBT&CA or below. If price closes above the HCR, the SFP high gives us a logical target to aim for. Also, the SFP seems to be single dimensional meaning, if price closes below a bearish SFP we short above a bullish SFP we go long. Whereas, Jims HCR & LCS are multi directional meaning we can go long after a breakthrough and pullback to a HCR or short...
I agree Steve . .
. .well said.Jim
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
- #124,993
- Apr 27, 2013 11:16am Apr 27, 2013 11:16am
- Joined Sep 2005 | Status: J16 Senior Member | 13,635 Posts
My pending was triggered on Friday, using Jarroo method...nice lcs (tested multiple times) with round number...kind of situations I'm looking for... {image}
Trading into some nice Space too. Price tends to react more to the near term or recently formed levels in this Space.
Here's some other setups on this pair . .chart ..
Jim
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
- #124,994
- Apr 27, 2013 11:44am Apr 27, 2013 11:44am
- Joined Sep 2005 | Status: J16 Senior Member | 13,635 Posts
Trade plan for tonight 1. GBP/USD - Short - HCR @ 1.53560. Previous close at 1.53361. Sell @ 1.53500 on retest 2. AUD/USD - Long - LCS @ 1.03697. Previous close at 1.03819. Buy @ 1.0385 on retest 3. USD/CAD - Short - HCR @ 1.0193. Previous close at 1.0174. Sell @ 1.0190 on retest 4. EUR/CAD - Long - HCR @ 1.3176. Previous close at 1.3215. Buy @ 1.3180 on retest {image} {image} {image} {image}
many of those levels worked just fine. Just be aware of the more recent levels too . .don't get me wrong, those past level play a role too . .
Jim
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
- #124,995
- Apr 27, 2013 4:06pm Apr 27, 2013 4:06pm
- Joined May 2010 | Status: HCR-LCS SFP | 6,026 Posts
{quote} I agree Steve . .
- #124,996
- Apr 27, 2013 4:47pm Apr 27, 2013 4:47pm
{quote} {image} {image}
I like Aud/Jpy the best. Beautiful weekly pin three weeks back, which is still in play. Looks like we may end up with a very nice monthly bearish pin.....I'm gettin' locked and loaded at a good price as soon as PA presents itself.
- #124,997
- Apr 27, 2013 11:10pm Apr 27, 2013 11:10pm
- Joined Nov 2012 | Status: Be consistent, Be persistent. | 1,847 Posts
{quote} {image} {image} peace, Jonas
Here's my view. Kinda messy as quite alot of annotations, hope it's clear.
Knowing is not enough; we must apply. Willing is not enough; we must do.
- #124,998
- Apr 28, 2013 12:53am Apr 28, 2013 12:53am
- Joined Jan 2008 | Status: <<--(-$-)-->> | 5,571 Posts
{quote} {quote} Hi Hitten Thanks for posting these questions! And thank you Ghous for your detailed answer
Hi Hitten Thanks for posting these questions! And thank you Ghous for your detailed answer
You hinted on what could well be the reason for you not breaking out of the BE circle.
You said...
I strongly believe I am missing something to "click" to go beyond this stage. It seems to me that this question is somehow related to the "what return can get weekly / monthly / daily / hourly ??
You are stuck at BE possibly because you are still too tied up with the numbers that translate into profits and losses. Instead of letting the market come to you so you drift nicely and easily along with it you're probably too worried about your daily/weekly/monthly returns. I can't generalize this, but the biggest reason I would get myself entangled into losing streaks was because every loss haunted me as it threatened to pull me away from a "monthly target". A winner would get me excited and I would jump the gun on average trade. I would then be anxious to recover the following loss and make more mistakes till panic would take over and the chain of bombs would set off.
I think setting periodic targets is where the roots of a faulty mindset rests. The question I get to hear the most and see people discuss about in order to judge a trader's capability is "how much do you make a month?" The best a professional trader would ever do is probably quote an average based on the many months and years that he has been trading and he knows the variance that can come along with it. There are break even months and losing months and mildly profitable months and absolute party months and they are spread across widely and randomly. There is no way you can tell the markets what you want. You need to get out of the illusion that you control the markets and simply wait to let the odds tip in your favor. This could take less than a week to several weeks of waiting but that is what trading is about. period
Don't get me wrong, of course the kind of returns you make do establish your trading ability and the more returns you make the better, but a more holistic and mature way to gauge your true trading skills is simply the consistency that you can achieve. Call it a paradox/dilemma but higher the expectations the more difficult it is to consistently hit them. Its cool when you set a monthly target of 20% and look to achieve it. Its less cool to simply expect of yourself to not go below 0% in any given month. All I can say is just pull out a financial magazine and see what the leading hedge fund managers are making. 12% a year is phenomenal! Can you imagine the kind of cash flow they can generate if they tweak their risk profiles a teeny tiny bit. heck aim for 20% for the year? Its not done though despite that That would be like a world record or something...
It pains me to see traders cribbing because they made just 5% in a month. It pains me because I know these are exceptional returns but the fallacy of high expectations is unnecessarily negatively impacting the mindset of the trader and he is going to punish himself by trading out of his skin the next month to get the average back to the 15-20% mark for the month.
which in turn raises the much more interesting question of the strategy the trade follows to "cut the losses short" and "let the profits run"
Ask yourself this:
Would you be inherently interested in taking profits quickly or cut out a potentially losing trade if this is the first trade after 3 losses? Would you be inherently inclined in giving your trade more breathing space if this is the first trade after 3 straight slam bam winners?
Can you make out the chain of effects? A mindset focused on achieving specific statistical targets, possibly leading to unfair expectations leading to emotional responses leading to errors in trade management.
I am not saying this is exactly the case, just pointing out that this could be one explanation. Obviously you gotta search inside of you for real answers.
g.
I believe . . .
- #124,999
- Apr 28, 2013 1:04am Apr 28, 2013 1:04am
- Joined Jan 2008 | Status: <<--(-$-)-->> | 5,571 Posts
I believe . . .
- #125,000
- Apr 28, 2013 1:07am Apr 28, 2013 1:07am
- Joined Jan 2008 | Status: <<--(-$-)-->> | 5,571 Posts
{quote} Have you looked at the ATR S/L to solve this "soft stop" problem, Ghous? Jim
I have. But the wizard uses the ATR 1) as an emergency stop and 2) on the 1H time frame (I guess)
I am actually looking for a regular hard stop and deeply involved in analyzing some interesting results and thoughts in the little time that I can manage to watch my charts in.
Its exciting because its boosting the R:R nicely and also making MM more concrete and logical.
g.
I believe . . .