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  • #5,301
  • Apr 20, 2013 8:29pm Apr 20, 2013 8:29pm
Quoting eruiluvatar
I do apologize pin, but I have to ask...where exactly is the SFP in your pic?

No need to apologize as, there are no stupid questions, only stupid answers.

Here you go, hope this helps and feel free to ask anything as long as I can answer, I will make an effort as we all learn together.

Hope this helps.
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  • #5,302
  • Apr 20, 2013 9:07pm Apr 20, 2013 9:07pm
Let's see if we get an SFP at this area.
Although, I do not like the look of the weekly BUEOB.
It appears to have enough space to the FTA though.
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  • #5,303
  • Apr 20, 2013 9:42pm Apr 20, 2013 9:42pm
For the people in the know, I have a question about swing point validation.
Meaning that, as the C swing point is more current, can we consider a test of this area and a close below as an SFP or, if it is not going to be an SFP because both the B & C swing points have yet to be reached and tested?

I know Tom will take a swing point and put a horizontal line on it but, when price tests it, breaks the high and gives us the SFP, he appears to be then using the SFP swing point as the new swing point to look for an SFP at, if the rejection is strong and, the move down sufficient to be considered a new swing point.
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  • #5,304
  • Apr 20, 2013 9:49pm Apr 20, 2013 9:49pm
Quoting Pinbar
Let's see if we get an SFP at this area. Although, I do not like the look of the weekly BUEOB. It appears to have enough space to the FTA though. {image} {image} {image} {image}
ah nice, gotcha. thnx bud
  • #5,305
  • Apr 23, 2013 2:30am Apr 23, 2013 2:30am
I remember James16 said the divergence in trending markets is going to kill us. IMHO we have to draw it when markets stops for a second and consolidates or at least it looks like that. Pinbar example is perfect

Toti


Quoting Honeygramo
Divergence Question: I understand that we are supposed to connect tops and bottoms. Which line is connecting the proper lows? Red or Green? {image}
  • #5,306
  • Apr 23, 2013 6:01am Apr 23, 2013 6:01am
Quoting Pinbar
For the people in the know, I have a question about swing point validation. Meaning that, as the C swing point is more current, can we consider a test of this area and a close below as an SFP or, if it is not going to be an SFP because both the B & C swing points have yet to be reached and tested? I know Tom will take a swing point and put a horizontal line on it but, when price tests it, breaks the high and gives us the SFP, he appears to be then using the SFP swing point as the new swing point to look for an SFP at, if the rejection is strong...
Did you read WHY an SFP works? If you had, you would have the answer to your own question.
I don't need easy. I just need possible.
  • #5,307
  • Apr 23, 2013 6:17am Apr 23, 2013 6:17am
  •  Hummar
  • | Joined Sep 2012 | Status: May the price action be with you | 27 Posts
Quoting Pinbar
For the people in the know, I have a question about swing point validation. Meaning that, as the C swing point is more current, can we consider a test of this area and a close below as an SFP or, if it is not going to be an SFP because both the B & C swing points have yet to be reached and tested? I know Tom will take a swing point and put a horizontal line on it but, when price tests it, breaks the high and gives us the SFP, he appears to be then using the SFP swing point as the new swing point to look for an SFP at, if the rejection is strong...

Its very difficult to answer your question. I would rather ask about probability of wining 1R, 2R... at SFP of swing C. You need to do statistics if You want to know. I made my statistics on USD majors and I know that I dont like this type of SFPs (when there is other swing close to previous swing which is going to be SFPed). But I doesn't mean that they can't be profitable. I also dont like to play on CAD, I need really good setup to play it. Try to do back tests of every H1 SFP on EUR USD during last 3-4 years and You will get everything you need.
  • #5,308
  • Apr 23, 2013 7:20am Apr 23, 2013 7:20am
Quoting Hummar
{quote} Its very difficult to answer your question. I would rather ask about probability of wining 1R, 2R... at SFP of swing C. You need to do statistics if You want to know. I made my statistics on USD majors and I know that I dont like this type of SFPs (when there is other swing close to previous swing which is going to be SFPed). But I doesn't mean that they can't be profitable. I also dont like to play on CAD, I need really good setup to play it. Try to do back tests of every H1 SFP on EUR USD during last 3-4 years and You will get everything...

Hello Hummar,

So it comes down to your stats, as is often the case.
Curious as how you managed to do your analysis. Did you look manually through charts, or do you have an automated way to identify
historical SFP setups?

Jim
  • #5,309
  • Apr 23, 2013 8:05am Apr 23, 2013 8:05am
  •  Hummar
  • | Joined Sep 2012 | Status: May the price action be with you | 27 Posts
Quoting JimN
{quote} Hello Hummar, So it comes down to your stats, as is often the case. Curious as how you managed to do your analysis. Did you look manually through charts, or do you have an automated way to identify historical SFP setups? Jim

Hi Jim,

I use my eyeballs and brain only.
  • #5,310
  • Apr 23, 2013 4:59pm Apr 23, 2013 4:59pm
Quoting DaGrizlyBull
{quote} Did you read WHY an SFP works? If you had, you would have the answer to your own question.
Of course, an SFP works because of the liquidity they create when taking out people's stops on the wrong side of the trade, plus the corporate orders stacked at strategic areas, thus combining position reversals with large orders.

Still, this does not answer the question, if it had, I would not have asked it in the first place.
  • #5,311
  • Apr 23, 2013 5:01pm Apr 23, 2013 5:01pm
Quoting Hummar
{quote} Its very difficult to answer your question. I would rather ask about probability of wining 1R, 2R... at SFP of swing C. You need to do statistics if You want to know. I made my statistics on USD majors and I know that I dont like this type of SFPs (when there is other swing close to previous swing which is going to be SFPed). But I doesn't mean that they can't be profitable. I also dont like to play on CAD, I need really good setup to play it. Try to do back tests of every H1 SFP on EUR USD during last 3-4 years and You will get everything...

Thanks

Will do the back test on EU.
  • #5,312
  • Apr 23, 2013 5:06pm Apr 23, 2013 5:06pm
No daily close yet but, I want to see if this hourly SFP can possibly get me into a daily PA bar, if indeed the daily closes as a bullish PA bar.
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  • #5,313
  • Edited 12:42am Apr 24, 2013 12:01am | Edited 12:42am
The H1 entry point collapsed back down to the swing point.

It is interesting to see that, we are about to see the fourth H1 close above the Level after, the retest.
Showing the inability of sellers to push price below this level, at least for the time being.

I really just wanted to see if the H1 tf entry, is going to be reliable at a daily level or not and thus, may provide us with a possible preemptive entry.

Hmm, this leads me to think perhaps Tom would have passed on this entry because of the large SL created by the bar close.
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  • #5,314
  • Apr 24, 2013 4:29am Apr 24, 2013 4:29am
  •  Hummar
  • | Joined Sep 2012 | Status: May the price action be with you | 27 Posts
Quoting Pinbar
The H1 entry point collapsed back down to the swing point. It is interesting to see that, we are about to see the fourth H1 close above the Level after, the retest. Showing the inability of sellers to push price below this level, at least for the time being. I really just wanted to see if the H1 tf entry, is going to be reliable at a daily level or not and thus, may provide us with a possible preemptive entry. Hmm, this leads me to think perhaps Tom would have passed on this entry because of the large SL created by the bar close. {image}

This H1 SFP wasn't a good one in my opinion (it was a very minor swing with two others, just to the left). I tried to play daily levels with H1 sfps but I don't do it anymore. When I play H1 sfp I want to see previous swing on the screen (it can't be very old swing). I also like if price made an U shape return rather than sharp one (but I can play sharp one also).
  • #5,315
  • Apr 24, 2013 11:00am Apr 24, 2013 11:00am
Quoting Hummar
{quote} This H1 SFP wasn't a good one in my opinion (it was a very minor swing with two others, just to the left). I tried to play daily levels with H1 sfps but I don't do it anymore. When I play H1 sfp I want to see previous swing on the screen (it can't be very old swing). I also like if price made an U shape return rather than sharp one (but I can play sharp one also).
Very interesting viewpoint you have on this H1 Sp Hummar.

I say that as, I placed more emphasis on it as, it was a rather major Weekly and Daily SP.

So, please clarify for me if you will, are you treating the H1 TF solely as an Hi TF or, treating the higher time frame SPs as having more weight to them?
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  • #5,316
  • Apr 24, 2013 1:55pm Apr 24, 2013 1:55pm
  •  Hummar
  • | Joined Sep 2012 | Status: May the price action be with you | 27 Posts
Quoting Pinbar
{quote} Very interesting viewpoint you have on this H1 Sp Hummar. I say that as, I placed more emphasis on it as, it was a rather major Weekly and Daily SP. So, please clarify for me if you will, are you treating the H1 TF solely as an Hi TF or, treating the higher time frame SPs as having more weight to them? {image} {image} {image}

I think that H1 SFP has the same weight at the hourly level as D1 on the daily level. In this case this was not a H1 level for me (the was not fresh hourly swing yet). I marke on the chart nice H1 SFP just above that level. Even If I would like to play that daily level from H1 point of view I would like to see a a longer wick, below the daily swing level. As I said I tried to play like this, but without success. In fact we should made a back test of daily swing levels and check if there was some H1 SFPs before daily sfp (then we would know if its worth to play this way).

My view is the result of my trading style. I trade on H1 chart for short term trades and D1 for medium term trades (with the same setups).

I took H1 SFP on EUR USD today (check your chart). It is not the best one because there is a lot of traffic, on the other hand we have nice divergence and big pinbar.
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  • #5,317
  • Apr 24, 2013 8:00pm Apr 24, 2013 8:00pm
Quoting Hummar
{quote} I think that H1 SFP has the same weight at the hourly level as D1 on the daily level. In this case this was not a H1 level for me (the was not fresh hourly swing yet). I marke on the chart nice H1 SFP just above that level. Even If I would like to play that daily level from H1 point of view I would like to see a a longer wick, below the daily swing level. As I said I tried to play like this, but without success. In fact we should made a back test of daily swing levels and check if there was some H1 SFPs before daily sfp (then we would know...

Thanks Hummar

Yeah, I am perhaps using the swing points from too far back, and trying to find a daily level that is also an H1 level.

Hmmm, possibly this is an old ghost reemerging that needs to be banished.

Thanks again
  • #5,318
  • Edited 9:57pm Apr 24, 2013 9:37pm | Edited 9:57pm
Just back tested the Daily TF on EU for 3 years from Jan 2010 to Jan 2013.
I can find only 5 successful SFPs and most of them were not great moves.
Very strange and I suspect that, there may be flaw in the back test, however, I am looking only at SPs where price was previously rejected.


Wondering if this is the reason why Tom is trading the H1 tf and not the Daily.

Possibly, if I look for daily PA and then move to the H1 to find an entry, the results will be better.

I shall back test this also.

EDIT: There appears to not be enough data in the FXPRO H1 tf to backtest 3 or even 2 years of H1 data.
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  • #5,319
  • Apr 25, 2013 5:46am Apr 25, 2013 5:46am
Quoting Pinbar
There appears to not be enough data in the FXPRO H1 tf to backtest 3 or even 2 years of H1 data.

Pb,
You probably need to change your MT4 settings. My H1 data on this pair goes back to Aug 2009.

Tools.Options.Charts
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  • #5,320
  • Apr 25, 2013 8:48am Apr 25, 2013 8:48am
  •  Hummar
  • | Joined Sep 2012 | Status: May the price action be with you | 27 Posts
Quoting Pinbar
Just back tested the Daily TF on EU for 3 years from Jan 2010 to Jan 2013. I can find only 5 successful SFPs and most of them were not great moves. Very strange and I suspect that, there may be flaw in the back test, however, I am looking only at SPs where price was previously rejected. Wondering if this is the reason why Tom is trading the H1 tf and not the Daily. Possibly, if I look for daily PA and then move to the H1 to find an entry, the results will be better. I shall back test this also. EDIT: There appears to not be enough data in the FXPRO...

I would like to tell You why Tom trades on H1 (but also on D1, and M5 in Bunds). Because he is professional trader which mean that he knows the markets in which he is trading like a back of his hand. When I started to trade like this (only 6-7 pairs) my profits started to be much bigger. There is one PA but every market is slightly different (just try to trade the same setup on exotic pairs). When you trade on 30 markets its impossible to know all of them. When I know my market I can take a trade which for average trader is risky, but I know how big my chances are.
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