Ramblings of a Forex Junkie | Page 132 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Forex Trading: Incorporating Price Behavior into a Forex Trading System 4 replies

Forex Training: What to Look for in a Forex Training Program 1 reply

The Journal Of A Macro Fundamental & Technical Analysis Junkie 26 replies

Trade Anatomy - ramblings of an old-timer 147 replies

Attachments: Ramblings of a Forex Junkie
Exit Attachments

Ramblings of a Forex Junkie

  • #2,621
  • Apr 24, 2013 3:28am Apr 24, 2013 3:28am
Quoting jonnypants
{quote} An observation if I may sir! Your short panned out because of German IFO data at 9:00UTC........ie bad results, Germany is struggling, Euro went down So I could argue you got lucky with news; maybe you could say on a probability basis the figures were likely to be bad given all the recent talk out of Europe Anyway on the plus side car sales are really suffering in Europe so discounted Golf GTIs will be on the way Good trading!
Price dropped because more people were prepared to sell at that price than buy, news was just a catalyst, not the reason.

But prior to the news the most likely direction was down, at least to the next weekly s/r
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screen shot 2013-04-24 at 09.25.47.png Size: 59 KB
tradewith60
  • #2,622
  • Apr 24, 2013 3:34am Apr 24, 2013 3:34am
[quote=jonnypants;6632071]
Quoting billytt
{quote} Morning Billy Nice short on EJ from 129.50 levels sir - do you trade 'round numbers' at all? Good trading sir!
hello, i do not trade round numbers but i am aware of them. sometimes i will use them as a resistance/support but today i had my eyes set on the 12890 level
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #2,623
  • Apr 24, 2013 3:35am Apr 24, 2013 3:35am
buster48,,,
just looked at e/u,, some one just posted a chart, but can you see how it was boxed in for approx 18 hours, that is one big clue. like johnny just sid about nes release, they were waiting undecided then hey ho down it went. looks like panic to me
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #2,624
  • Apr 24, 2013 3:39am Apr 24, 2013 3:39am
Quoting 60minuteman
Price dropped because more people were prepared to sell at that price than buy, news was just a catalyst, not the reason.
Sure I hear what you're saying but news moves markets......did you see what happened to the ES and Yen yesterday when AP had their twitter account hacked?
It strikes me that the struggle in EJ at the moment is a central bank tug of war between BOJ easing and a potential interest rate cut by the ECB......... Any news on the latter will move this fecker big time methinks?
Cheers
  • #2,625
  • Apr 24, 2013 3:42am Apr 24, 2013 3:42am
[quote=jonnypants;6632112]{quote} Sure I hear what you're saying but news moves markets......did you see what happened to the ES and Yen yesterday when AP had their twitter account hacked?

and that is what it is all about, i am not actually concerned who says/does what to make market move, i set triggers and trade which ever way it goes.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #2,626
  • Apr 24, 2013 3:44am Apr 24, 2013 3:44am
Quoting jonnypants
{quote} An observation if I may sir! Your short panned out because of German IFO data at 9:00UTC........ie bad results, Germany is struggling, Euro went down So I could argue you got lucky with news; maybe you could say on a probability basis the figures were likely to be bad given all the recent talk out of Europe Anyway on the plus side car sales are really suffering in Europe so discounted Golf GTIs will be on the way Good trading!
Very true but the hints in price action in my eyes were there yesterday as we broke a weekly SR level, closed below on a daily chart and price was failing to pop up and long off that weekly level. If we are not long then we are short. PA also moved below the daily open and gave a 30 min separation, by the rules, you short the retest (i allow a buffer around the open price, i dont need it exactly to be hit)

Ive also tested 5 years of data on the levels with EU and I've completely disregarded news events while testing with the excpetion of NFP......the levels work, regardless of what news comes out according to my testing so I have no fear trading prior to these events as my results show me over the long term the news is irrelvent and the levels will supercede and put you on the right side of the trade more often than on the wrong side. So you say luck and I say the long term odds are in my favor. I'm not disagreeing with you and saying you are wrong, just my thought process on why i did or do what I do. I'm very much aware of the news events coming out and If price surged up and over the previous week low and daily open and stopped me out, I would not care in the least and I would long it there on a retest regardless. That is how i tested 5 years of data and that is how i trade it.

Im not saying what i do is right or wrong, im just saying i backtested this way and it works FOR ME and I have confidence in the levels, which i think is the key. The only thing that really stumps me from time to time, (1 or 2 days a week) is what to do when multiple trades all setup at the same time, I cant or havnt figured out a way to swing the odds in my favor with choosing the right pair.

Maybe I just need to accept this and move on and problem solved....hmmmm
  • #2,627
  • Apr 24, 2013 3:54am Apr 24, 2013 3:54am
Quoting OffshorePipn
{quote}
Interesting post cheers
Sounds like price will reach a level regardless of what news is around; like it's sort of preordained or written in the stars!
Nice retrace from the lows - I need to practice jumping in front of the moving train more often.............
  • #2,628
  • Apr 24, 2013 3:54am Apr 24, 2013 3:54am
Quoting 60minuteman
{quote} Price dropped because more people were prepared to sell at that price than buy, news was just a catalyst, not the reason. But prior to the news the most likely direction was down, at least to the next weekly s/r {image}
My thoughts exactly.....Now if we get an H1 or H4 closing back above the Previous Week Low and Daily Open......My direction or bias is going to switch to long as I now have more information on what price is trying to. Well see more clues / hints in about 7 more min.

Nice explanation sir - You in thailand living my dream yet - hope all is well
  • #2,629
  • Apr 24, 2013 4:03am Apr 24, 2013 4:03am
Quoting jonnypants
{quote} Interesting post cheers Sounds like price will reach a level regardless of what news is around; like it's sort of preordained or written in the stars! Nice retrace from the lows - I need to practice jumping in front of the moving train more often.............
You can hold one of two mindsets, the market is completely random ping ponging around with no definable pattern at all - Which in the context of this thread would mean that levels will at best be coin flips..... or that it follows some order and can be accurately tracked.

If you believe the latter then events like news will only accelerate the movement between these points...

So is it a fluke that EU spiked down exactly to a weekly level and then rejected or was it a result of orders placed there, easy to push it until it hit a pile of orders?
tradewith60
  • #2,630
  • Apr 24, 2013 4:07am Apr 24, 2013 4:07am
Quoting jonnypants
{quote} Interesting post cheers Sounds like price will reach a level regardless of what news is around; like it's sort of preordained or written in the stars! Nice retrace from the lows - I need to practice jumping in front of the moving train more often.............
I still chicken out of trades because of the speed at times.

Maybe check out some Chris Lori webinars on price inefficency and efficency and rebalancing. He goes into some detail as why those fast surges are best to trade right into and how price moves need to rebalance with regard to order flow, he does a pretty decent job of explaining it my opinion. They are free on his website. Not to derail the thread but some more knowlege on the why and how it works and what not might help your understanding and build more confidence to take the setups like that. Just like how SP showed a 100+ page pdf on market micro structure. Anything that increases your understanding is a big plus. A friend of mine will only trade a level when it is hit with speed like that, he wont take the trade if it does a slow roll into the level, that his #1 requirment is that is flies right into it with speed and big candles. The further and faster it moves to hit that level, the more he is foaming at the mouth to take it. Interesting how our minds can mess with you.

Maybe backtest that and check the results of only taking trades that have big candles flying into levels - your backtest results on that might give you the confidence you need to take them. I say backtest and let those results guide you and ignore the emotions in the head....
  • #2,631
  • Apr 24, 2013 4:12am Apr 24, 2013 4:12am
Quoting 60minuteman
{quote} Price dropped because more people were prepared to sell at that price than buy, news was just a catalyst, not the reason. But prior to the news the most likely direction was down, at least to the next weekly s/r {image}
I saw the attached picture.
It is very nice to have a handy tool seeing other time frames real-time in a small view on your right corner of screen. Could you kindly give us a hint on how we could do it? Is there any EA's for this?

Regards,
Manage probability while following the TREND.
  • #2,632
  • Apr 24, 2013 4:19am Apr 24, 2013 4:19am
Quoting khanderoo
{quote} I saw the attached picture. It is very nice to have a handy tool seeing other time frames real-time in a small view on your right corner of screen. Could you kindly give us a hint on how we could do it? Is there any EA's for this? Regards,
http://www.pipware.com/software/mini-charts.html
tradewith60
  • #2,633
  • Apr 24, 2013 4:20am Apr 24, 2013 4:20am
Quoting Xhale
{quote} In regards to ATR..... I only pay attention when price reaches it around the hours of London close. Do some backtesting and you'll see why.
Did notice your post.

You mentioned only interested around London's close, that is around same time when I meant to close my trading shop so would not use ATR for London's close.
  • #2,634
  • Apr 24, 2013 4:48am Apr 24, 2013 4:48am
Quoting 60minuteman
{quote} http://www.pipware.com/software/mini-charts.html
Thanks 60MinuteMan. It is an awesome tool.
Manage probability while following the TREND.
  • #2,635
  • Apr 24, 2013 4:49am Apr 24, 2013 4:49am
Quoting 60minuteman
{quote}So is it a fluke that EU spiked down exactly to a weekly level and then rejected or was it a result of orders placed there, easy to push it until it hit a pile of orders?
OK it was EUs destiny! Like I said earlier; going to practice jumping in front of fast moving trains more often!
Regarding your chart, which indy is the dashed line?
  • #2,636
  • Apr 24, 2013 4:52am Apr 24, 2013 4:52am
[quote=OffshorePipn;[/quote]

A nice couple of thought provoking posts , thanks for your contribution
  • #2,637
  • Apr 24, 2013 7:40am Apr 24, 2013 7:40am
After some thoughts (and a long morning run), I'm starting to think the answer to my earlier question regarding what pair or setup to choose when multiple setups occur at the same time lies in the quote below from Paul Tudor Jones that I read earlier.

"The most important rule of trading is to play great defense, not great offense."

So if the multiple setups occur at the same time, their is no way of knowing which setup will win, lose or BE and the outcome of all setups at the point of entry is uncertain. And if you take all the setups, like I see some traders here doing, you will either kill it and win them all or lose your a$$ - that to me is gambling and not playing defense at all. I also speak from experience as I used to do this in my earlier days and my results where either win all or lose all. Sometimes your on a hot streak for a few days but over time it will eat you up.

Each trader has their own strengths and weaknesses with regard to their discretion, experience and their ability to read price action 'hints' & 'clues' that are shown on the chart at the time the setups occur. So if you were to take PTJ advice and play great defense, to me, the best defense in a situation like this would be to take 1 setup only and minimize your exposure at that specific time. Their will always be another setup. Use your discretion, use your experience and use your ability to read price action in order to make this decision. Stand by your decision. Let the trade play out and don't beat yourself up over it. You'll win some and lose some regardless of your experience level but I think the key lies within "great defense, not great offense".

Most traders who are learning this method / style of trading will be confronted with this 'which setup to take' scenario almost daily - Play Great Defense.

I think I've basically answered my own question and created a new rule for my trading going forward. Still love to hear your opinion SP.

Just some thoughts......Anyway.....Back to lurking for me.....
  • #2,638
  • Edited 7:54am Apr 24, 2013 7:40am | Edited 7:54am
Quoting Seneca pilot
{quote} There was a frontline show in 1987 about PTJ and he bought it and had all the copies pulled. It still floats around on the net but I have never found a copy that I could download. If you google Paul Tudor Jones documentary you might be able to find it to watch. I linked it here when I found it a few months ago but it is already down. His people must have a full time position doing nothing but scouring the net looking for it to be posted and sending out cease and desist orders. It never stays up long.
Went to sleep before I got your reply. Just woke up and read what your looking for. Downloading it now. I new it's secret hiding place. Lol
  • #2,639
  • Edited 8:38am Apr 24, 2013 7:51am | Edited 8:38am
EJ Fade of yesterdays high to Daily Open

There were nice opps in GU and EU as well.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpym15.png Size: 34 KB
Simplicity is the ultimate in sophistication ~ Leonardo Da Vinci
  • #2,640
  • Apr 24, 2013 8:41am Apr 24, 2013 8:41am
Quoting fisheggs
EJ Fade of yesterdays high to Daily Open {image}
OH man I am in love with fisheggs that chart is a thing of beauty!!!!
1 trader viewing now