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Ramblings of a Forex Junkie

  • #2,581
  • Apr 23, 2013 9:02am Apr 23, 2013 9:02am
Quoting kk007
{quote} Are you talking about USDJPY? It has broken yesterday low from above forcefully today ... {quote} So, do you think I should not have shorted yesterday low at 99.00?
Oh.. Sorry... my mistake.... I have used the broker of GMT +3... and I should have used the broker of GMT-4 instead.
  • #2,582
  • Apr 23, 2013 9:04am Apr 23, 2013 9:04am
Quoting kk007
{quote} Are you talking about USDJPY? It has broken yesterday low from above forcefully today ... {quote} So, do you think I should not have shorted yesterday low at 99.00?

Yesterday's low on UJ is 98.575 and today's low is 98.475. Not a forceful break and well within the normal stop distance for a long at the level. You cannot use the European trading hours for a pair with its base currency in dollars.
  • #2,583
  • Apr 23, 2013 9:06am Apr 23, 2013 9:06am
This sucks, it was a great trading day with lots of winners and I have closed all my accounts except for the tester. I made enough last night to have a coffee.
  • #2,584
  • Apr 23, 2013 9:15am Apr 23, 2013 9:15am
A few quotes from Market Wizards -- Paul Tudor Jones

Don't focus on making money; focus on protecting what you have.

Don't ever average losers. Decrease your trading volume when you are trading poorly; increase your volume when you are trading well. Never trade in situations where you don't have control. For example, I don't risk significant amounts of money in front of key reports, since that is gambling, not trading.

If you have a losing position that is making you uncomfortable, the solution is very simple: Get out, because you can always get back in. There is nothing better than a fresh start.

The most important rule of trading is to play great defense, not great offense.

Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself and your ability. Don't ever feel that you are very good. The second you so, you are dead.
  • #2,585
  • Apr 23, 2013 9:15am Apr 23, 2013 9:15am
Quoting rdsl
Another day in office, fading yesterday's high & low and the daily open line. (0500 gmt) Lately I noticed some anomalys - so to say - and I'd like to here what the intelligent crew thinks about them. Only intelligent ones please... (yeah Steve you are one of them) (1) Many times instead of "yesterday's high/low" lines I see that the "day before yesterday's high/low" work even better. I'm not kidding. It happens usually when i get to the charts too late (let's say i'm late by 2 hours) the trading day of course already started but i can see that...
The thing I see most often with the highs and lows from two days ago is this; If yesterday closed below the low from two days ago then sometimes that low will act as resistance. Same thing for a day finishing above yesterday.

I don't really worry about when the high or low is made. You could see today with UJ and the other yen pairs the low was made quite late in the day but we still had profitable bounces off those lows. Nimbleness during news times and while the central banks are at war is crucial, but GJ and EJ gave fifty pips each off the daily lows before the news did its thing.
  • #2,586
  • Apr 23, 2013 9:35am Apr 23, 2013 9:35am
Quoting TraderT
A few quotes from Market Wizards -- Paul Tudor Jones Don't focus on making money; focus on protecting what you have. Don't ever average losers. Decrease your trading volume when you are trading poorly; increase your volume when you are trading well. Never trade in situations where you don't have control. For example, I don't risk significant amounts of money in front of key reports, since that is gambling, not trading. If you have a losing position that is making you uncomfortable, the solution is very simple: Get out, because you can always get...
My favorite from PTJ;

Everyone says you get killed trying to pick tops and bottoms and make all your money by playing the trend in the middle. Well for twelve years I have been missing the meat in the middle but I have made a lot of money at tops and bottoms.
  • #2,587
  • Apr 23, 2013 9:45am Apr 23, 2013 9:45am
Quoting Seneca pilot
{quote} As long as the London high is also the high of the entire day this is a perfect strategy and as you have seen it worked very well today. French news pushed price right into the level after Frankie gave us a nice long off the daily open. We would have jumped in front of the train (remember the best trades are the hardest ones to take) and German news pushed it straight down off the high. A perfect day. My trading wizard is Paul Tudor Jones. I like his style and no one can argue with thirty years of sustained excellence.
Thank you SP for your reply. Even if you closed your thread now, I have learnt far more than any book/seminar.

Will watch more of PTJ.
  • #2,588
  • Apr 23, 2013 9:52am Apr 23, 2013 9:52am
Quoting TraderT
{quote} Thank you SP for your reply. Even if you closed your thread now, I have learnt far more than any book/seminar. Will watch more of PTJ.
  • #2,589
  • Apr 23, 2013 9:58am Apr 23, 2013 9:58am
Quoting Seneca pilot
{quote} My favorite from PTJ; Everyone says you get killed trying to pick tops and bottoms and make all your money by playing the trend in the middle. Well for twelve years I have been missing the meat in the middle but I have made a lot of money at tops and bottoms.
That "picking top and bottom" is also a favorite quote for me.

Is it uncanny that we all refering to same thing from Paul Tudor Jones today, as I am re-reading the Market Wizards and finish PTJ chapter today.

My other favorite quotes from PTJ:

"Eli Tulis taught me that if you want to move a large position, you don't wait until the market is in new high or low ground because very little volume may trade there if it is a turning point."

"I will always liquidate half my position below new highs or lows and the remaining half beyond that point."

"By watching Eli, I learned that even though markets look their very best when they are setting new highs, that is often the best time to sell.
He instilled in me the idea that, to some extent, to be a good trder, you have to be contrarian."


Apart from Market Wizards book, is there other reading material on Paul Tudor Jones or written by PTJ himself ??
  • #2,590
  • Apr 23, 2013 10:01am Apr 23, 2013 10:01am
Hey I hope everyone's making good pips

I made a long trade on GBPJPY today and did well.

I initially went short at 151.225 and got a 15 pip drawdown. Thankfully the price came down and I closed out at BE. My level drawn on the chart was 151.130, so I

decided to go long on a retracement. I bought at 151.130 and held until 151.900, which was the daily high on my time zone(GMT+9). I made about 80 pips today,

so I guess I'm happy... But now that I think of it, 151.130 wasn't a level that SP uses. It was a subjective S/R level that I drew on a H1 timeframe. Since I'm a

novice(only 2 weeks in to real trading) I would like any advice on this trade. What should I have done? Was this a bad trade, even though it made a profit?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,591
  • Apr 23, 2013 10:11am Apr 23, 2013 10:11am
Quoting foxybunny
{quote} That "picking top and bottom" is also a favorite quote for me. Is it uncanny that we all refering to same thing from Paul Tudor Jones today, as I am re-reading the Market Wizards and finish PTJ chapter today. My other favorite quotes from PTJ: "Eli Tulis taught me that if you want to move a large position, you don't wait until the market is in new high or low ground because very little volume may trade there if it is a turning point." "I will always liquidate half my position below new highs or lows and the remaining half beyond that...
Not that I know of, there are a few interviews on the net and the famous frontline show that I linked here but that one only pops up for a short time before his people find it and have it taken down. I have never found it anywhere where I can download it and have a copy for myself.

Much of what I have read of him and seen in the various shows and interviews has really shaped my trading.
  • #2,592
  • Apr 23, 2013 10:19am Apr 23, 2013 10:19am
Quoting galaxys3
Hey I hope everyone's making good pips I made a long trade on GBPJPY today and did well. I initially went short at 151.225 and got a 15 pip drawdown. Thankfully the price came down and I closed out at BE. My level drawn on the chart was 151.130, so I decided to go long on a retracement. I bought at 151.130 and held until 151.900, which was the daily high on my time zone(GMT+9). I made about 80 pips today, so I guess I'm happy... But now that I think of it, 151.130 wasn't a level that SP uses. It was a subjective S/R level that I drew on a H1 timeframe....
Whether it was a level I teach or not, never beat yourself up over a successful trade. You got in and you managed it to make a good return. The main questions are what did you learn from the trade and how would you do things differently on the next trade, and was the level you chose one that you have enough confidence in to use more than once?
  • #2,593
  • Apr 23, 2013 10:22am Apr 23, 2013 10:22am
Quoting Xhale
{quote} In regards to ATR..... I only pay attention when price reaches it around the hours of London close. Do some backtesting and you'll see why.
I'm gonna be a douchebag and quote myself here as it seems this post got lost in the drama of yesterday. Test this out guys.
What is any ocean but a multitude of drops?
  • #2,594
  • Apr 23, 2013 10:24am Apr 23, 2013 10:24am
Quoting Xhale
{quote} I'm gonna be a douchebag and quote myself here as it seems this post got lost in the drama of yesterday. Test this out guys.
It wasn't lost I'm investigating.
  • #2,595
  • Apr 23, 2013 10:24am Apr 23, 2013 10:24am
Quoting Seneca pilot
{quote} My favorite from PTJ; Everyone says you get killed trying to pick tops and bottoms and make all your money by playing the trend in the middle. Well for twelve years I have been missing the meat in the middle but I have made a lot of money at tops and bottoms.
My favorite is in the "trader" doc where when he shorts crude under the guise of a "crazy as shit arab".
What is any ocean but a multitude of drops?
  • #2,596
  • Apr 23, 2013 11:23am Apr 23, 2013 11:23am
hi guys, hope you are all good, i only traded e/j and u/j on respective opens ie jpn and usd, and all was good nothing more to say, perfect entries. be good
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #2,597
  • Apr 23, 2013 11:28am Apr 23, 2013 11:28am
[quote=rdsl;6629169]Another day in office, fading yesterday's high & low and the daily open line. (0500 gmt) Lately I noticed some anomalys - so to say - and I'd like to here what the intelligent crew thinks about them. Only intelligent ones please... (yeah Steve you are one of them) (1) Many times instead of "yesterday's high/low" lines I see that the "day before yesterday's high/low" work even better. I'm not kidding. It happens usually when i get to the charts too late (let's say i'm late by 2 hours) the trading day of course already started but i can see that if i used the day before yesterday's lines (which are still on my charts from yesterday) they would have worked really well while today's would fail... Have any of you ramblers happen to make any statistics on this? (2) What if, the yesterday's H/L was made just minutes (say 2 or 3 15M candles) before the daily open. This happended today on EJ... The daily low was made 2 candles before 0500 GMT.

hi bud, you made a good observation, These things you saw do happen and it all adds up to make statistics,odds etc for your trading.. the last part you mention i would say ,,,stick to the system, many days you will have a winner but alas many days failure, but perhaps SP can enlighten you with using your judgement perhaps. be good
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #2,598
  • Apr 23, 2013 11:32am Apr 23, 2013 11:32am
Quoting Xhale
{quote} I'm gonna be a douchebag and quote myself here as it seems this post got lost in the drama of yesterday. Test this out guys.
Douchebags don't quote themselves...only narcissists do.

Kidding aside...I too am a fan of ATR and did notice your post.
Just for my own clarification, are you saying that, for example, if the 5-day average ATR = 100, and if we're approaching 100 for today at LC, then this is a price area of interest to you? And are you looking for a price reversal?

Then the next question is...when does the clock start for the ATR counter? If your starting point is NYO, then the ATR will rarely get to its average by LC. If your starting point is previous day's LC, then the ATR will frequently get to its average by today's LC.

Regarding PTJ, he wrote a foreword for Mark Fisher's book, The Logical Trader. You can go to Amazon, and "click to look inside" for a quick and interesting read. In there, he listed his 4 favorite trading books.
  • #2,599
  • Apr 23, 2013 4:36pm Apr 23, 2013 4:36pm
[quote=kokopelli;6630423]{quote} Douchebags don't quote themselves...only narcissists do. Kidding aside...I too am a fan of ATR and did notice your post. Just for my own clarification, are you saying that, for example, if the 5-day average ATR = 100, and if we're approaching 100 for today at LC, then this is a price area of interest to you? And are you looking for a price reversal?


Hi bud,, the books can be downloaded if you google them.
the ATR range can be based on the particular 8 hour open market ie, jpn,uk,usd etc and also the 24 hour daily and then you can get an idea of where the range isor going
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #2,600
  • Apr 23, 2013 4:49pm Apr 23, 2013 4:49pm
Hi Seneca sorry to go back over old ground but on post 80 you put up a post about trading a bracket breakout from the high/low of the 3 1hr bars preceding the london open,trading after a retest of one side of the bracket (see chart post 80)on a pending order ,now after test after test I dont get anything like the results you posted,which makes me wonder if you are using a different criteria in addition. Most of the time you either dont get a retest or it comes back and goes straight through and out the other side of the bracket,what am I missing here?,thanks for any insight.
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