james16 Chart Thread

That BEOB that's appeared has convinced me to short now. Have a sell order on the break of the bar, stop just above the bar.

Hey H

Glad to see you at least stuck your order below. I will say that this can be the fakeout bar because of how sloppy that H&S is. I think H&S type patterns that don't have NICE necklines are some of the bigger fakeout patterns I see myself. At least selling the new low and watching the BRN is better though. So you are safe here. But be careful with the sloppier formed patterns. Just something over the years I have seen

Best
Mike

Here is what I mean

For me a H&S should have a very neat TL. In the case of a bearish H&S I personally(I know you will see it done different) want a rising TL to be the neckline. Much like a wedge breakout just with different characteristics. Notice here we have a descending TL that could easily stop the trade.

Some people would just draw a horizontal neck here but if you do that really price hasn't respected that in any sort of uniform fashion. For me this is very crucial to picking good patterns. Just something over the last 10+ years that keeps me out of a lot of bad ones. I stress it very strongly in the private side. It might drive some people nuts lol!


Best
Mike

Hi guys,
what do you think about this one ?
Location looks pretty good for some bam, not much space though.
First major trouble area at 1.2566.

I'll keep this in mind for any future H&S patterns, Mike.

H&S patterns???

stands for head and shoulders patterns.

What do you think about this GBP JYP daily pinbar, is this not valid because its kinda not a High Low?

Also have another question what do you expect to make every month in a percentage profit, like I try to make 20% every month. How much should I be looking to make every month.

Best Wishes,
Chris,

Hey Chris

Yes be careful remember when starting out look for pinbars at swing highs and lows. So bullish pinbars at swing lows. Try to find some that previously happened and post up so we can see if you got swing points down.

As for what can you make.

The summary is it varies. People pursue different goals. But this is probably one of the biggest mistakes I see out there is people with expectations that are generally unrealistic or cause bad habits. Can you make high returns? Yes. Is it more likely you won't? Yes. Most people don't seem to grasp even what a few percentage points a month compounded over time can do. This is why you will see people fight tooth and nail over funds that even turn 10% a year consistently. This is not to say you can't do better, most would say they want to and I get it. But what I think is more improtant instead is to just see where you fall. Learn to trade right and see what that means.

Here is something I wrote in a thread in the private forum that I called reason why aspiring traders remain aspiring traders. It's very opinionated and again just my view. This was one topic I called. unrealistic expectations.

Here is that post


Expectations

This one is huge. I wrote a whole entire long thing and deleted it twice.

Expectations are tricky. We all tend to get into this b/c we have expectations about certain things. Most of us have expectations that to be brutally honest will never be met. Things like

"I want to make X% per day/month/year" And usually X = something absurd and rare.

Now I don't fault expectations but they often blind us from being just plain logical about this business. I had an email from someone who was making over 40% for the year. This person had recently left their job and had a lot of money that they wanted too see if they could trade for a living and support their family. They said that they were about 3 years in and ready to give up b/c it wasn't enough to meet his needs. 40% a year folks. I get emails like this an my stomach cringes and it's the times when I wish I wasn't in a position to receive their emails. I never give that type of advice. But what I tried to explain to this person is, where else in the world can you get 40% per year returns or even close. Now my point is not to debate percent returns. Frankly they vary and are so situational dependent on so many issues. My real point is again here is someone whose expectations are so high that they are blinded. Most people are blinded. Yes I said it, most people I believe are blinded. This ties into everything from system hopping to moving down timeframes, to poor MM which we I have spoke about. Expectations cause people to make poor decisions and instead of realizing really that they should instead to learn to trade right and build a foundation and see where their trading takes them.

Another thing I see a theme on. I want to trade for a living. Since when does trading have to be for a living or nothing. Yes I Know most of us want a better quality of life. We have all the best intentions in the world. We hate our "jobs" so we look at trading as a way out. Well guess what? Most people will never be able to quit their jobs as quick as they want or if ever. I know I probably just broke some hearts but it's reality check time. Those of you with tiny accounts need to realize that their can still be an end game. Grow your account, add to it, and see where it takes you. I know very few people who are ONLY trading their own accounts for a living. I am not going to go hugely beyond that but most people forget about things like:

-Taxes
-Health insurance
-Sitting on enough where performance is not an issue for years(or pressure creeps in
-Withdrawing from your account = not growing an account
-money aside for bills
-the list can keep going

Instead peoples expectations instead get in the way and they breakout excel. Plug in 50k account to start. What they need to live and be wealthy. And then they figure out how can I get that % number. What business out there would ever work like that? None. So why is forex or trading any different. It isn't.

Now everyone's situation is drastically different. I will never ever give advice to a personal situation. It isn't allowed and it is something one has to do their due diligence on. What I am trying to do here is bring most people back to earth, and those that are back down, realize what can be done if you learn to trade right.

Again all these topics are so inter-related that you will eventually realize that expectations are your ego which ties into so many other things that will effect your trading. Most people simply don't learn to trade right b/c they are so caught up in their expectations. The best thing I could ever say is throw them out the window, learn to trade right and see where YOU end up. Not anyone else, but you.

Of course things like blowing accounts, over leveraging, trying to hit it big on every trade all tie into those expectations.

I will probably add to this one, cause it is such a big deal to me. Hopefully this sets of a few light bulbs. Just realize that a little can go a long way, and that this is not a race but a marathon.

Be smart.

Great Post Mike.

We should also ask ourselves before every trade, How much could I lose, on it.

Pin Bar off of S/R level, bounced of 50% fib ret and BRN. Currently waiting for retracement for order to trigger long.

Hi Makwana,
I was also going to point out this position in Euro.
The trade is confirmed good support. Have a look here.

Let's see what will happen with this H4 BUOB on EU.

When would you say it's good to trade continuation pin bars? I've read in this post that you also trade continuation pins: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...88#post2202988

Why the pin from GBP JPY is not worth trading as a continuation pin?

Nice post mike ! I was guilty of thinking unrealistickly when first introduced to trading. Fijitrader free compounding spreadsheet video at the guest area is helpful of seeing reality these gains are that of a pro not a beginner. I think trying to break even should be a goal more realistic

Be careful headed right into box consolidation

Hey Chriz,

Can I ask the settings of your boillinger bands?

I started to learn trading of classical J16 methods (pin bar and engulfing) from an other (European) price action forum where the application of boillinger bands for chart analysis was very rare. But while I am active on this forum also, I realized a lot of traders use that here.
Do you use the boillinger bands to realize confluenses just like with EMA-s? (ppz-boillinger confluence?)

I'm still short on this pair due to yesterdays BEOB but have now reduced my risk due to the pin that's formed. Stop is now at 1.3032

Hey Mak

I see a few of you are playing this. Just be REALLY careful here. THis is a super choppy pair right now with a massive consolidation just above as well as no space. This is a bar that can give traders a lot of trouble


Best
Mike

Hey Str8

If you notice the big difference here on my continuation pinbar is that this is off a former pattern or a strong S/R area but more so a pattern. So we have a flip in s/r that is based on a larger pattern that formed in the market. Often people try to just play pinbars in strong trending markets to "jump" on. These often lead to a lot of headaches in my experience and why we tell you all to look for them at good swing points. Playing them off breakout patterns is one of the few exceptions for me personally to play them as continuations

Best
Mike