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H4 Power

  • #321
  • Apr 21, 2013 6:38am Apr 21, 2013 6:38am
Quoting 60minuteman
never really looked at it, but if it doesn't use s/r or price action i wouldn't bother
60mm

do you have a way of filtering false signals for this method ? i ask because a backtest of gu and eu revealed more losses than wins. a 4hr engulf followed by a 15m engulf does not always result in a profitable trade. there were too many failed trades where stop loss was hit. so in the long run without a filter you may end up not making any pips overall.....
  • #322
  • Apr 21, 2013 6:53am Apr 21, 2013 6:53am
Quoting whatfx
60mm do you have a way of filtering false signals for this method ? i ask because a backtest of gu and eu revealed more losses than wins. a 4hr engulf followed by a 15m engulf does not always result in a profitable trade. there were too many failed trades where stop loss was hit. so in the long run without a filter you may end up not making any pips overall.....
Did you took the SL on the M15 ?

I think that for a safer trade (more room), a H4 SL will give greater results ... To be tested.
MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder
  • #323
  • Apr 21, 2013 9:05am Apr 21, 2013 9:05am
Just an idea thrown in the air...

What about drawing a line at the H4 SL then switch to M15 and enter with a M15 SL until the price closes below the line; which void the signal?

The sum of the accumulated little losses should be smaller than the big SL (at least in average). A loser should cost less pips.
If the next entry is beyond the lost SL we make the money back (if winner) and make little bit more than the entry with the big SL.
If the entry is worst than the first one we make less pips because of the loss but we keep a minimal risk. The R:R should be kept better (not sure).
In a good day we could also get another M15 trigger and have 2 positions running for the same risk (first one trailed to BE).
I see two big issues
1/ if price ranges on M15 we accumulate stupid losers.
2/ we can be ticked-out for a loss and see the price running away without us.

The 2/ can anyway happen with the big H4 SL. (it can happen with any strat)

-- Clearly shows again that driving the position is much more important than the entry itself --
No greed. No fear. Just maths.
  • #324
  • Apr 21, 2013 9:05am Apr 21, 2013 9:05am
Quoting whatfx
60mm do you have a way of filtering false signals for this method ? i ask because a backtest of gu and eu revealed more losses than wins. a 4hr engulf followed by a 15m engulf does not always result in a profitable trade. there were too many failed trades where stop loss was hit. so in the long run without a filter you may end up not making any pips overall.....
I don't use any filters What
tradewith60
  • #325
  • Apr 21, 2013 9:15am Apr 21, 2013 9:15am
Ok, some people are getting off course here... maybe I haven't been clear or emphasized a few points clearly enough.

The first 3 trades I took last week (posted on this thread) made 4:1, 7:1 and 8:1...

So lets say I risk 2% per trade, I am up 38%.... hands up if you think it matters that I lose the next 3 trades? how about the next 10 trades?...

50% win rate, 3:1 R/R or greater

This is not a high win rate system, filtering will just cancel you out of the big wins, It's all about a reliable pattern that will get you cheaply into big moves...

Don't take my word for it though, forward test for a week.
tradewith60
  • #326
  • Apr 21, 2013 9:24am Apr 21, 2013 9:24am
Quoting whatfx
60mm do you have a way of filtering false signals for this method ? i ask because a backtest of gu and eu revealed more losses than wins. a 4hr engulf followed by a 15m engulf does not always result in a profitable trade. there were too many failed trades where stop loss was hit. so in the long run without a filter you may end up not making any pips overall.....
What you need to post a chart of the period you tested so I can see how you're entering, sl etc
tradewith60
  • #327
  • Apr 21, 2013 9:29am Apr 21, 2013 9:29am
Quoting PipMeUp
Just an idea thrown in the air... What about drawing a line at the H4 SL then switch to M15 and enter with a M15 SL until the price closes below the line; which void the signal? The sum of the accumulated little losses should be smaller than the big SL (at least in average). A loser should cost less pips. If the next entry is beyond the lost SL we make the money back (if winner) and make little bit more than the entry with the big SL. If the entry is worst than the first one we make less pips because of the loss but we keep a minimal risk. The R:R...
I believe this is what we are already doing pip..

Price can't range really, there are only 16 m15's in a h4, its near impossible for the signal not to give an entry or invalidation. back test, you will see what I mean

You should never be tricked and miss the move, we always have the option of entry with the h4 breakout, that being said it is impossible for price to move with out closing over s/r as discussed earlier in the thread... there will always be a signal.... But you should accept that you will miss a few moves and you will make mistakes.
tradewith60
  • #328
  • Apr 21, 2013 10:56am Apr 21, 2013 10:56am
Quoting 60minuteman
I believe this is what we are already doing pip.. Price can't range really, there are only 16 m15's in a h4, its near impossible for the signal not to give an entry or invalidation. back test, you will see what I mean You should never be tricked and miss the move, we always have the option of entry with the h4 breakout, that being said it is impossible for price to move with out closing over s/r as discussed earlier in the thread... there will always be a signal.... But you should accept that you will miss a few moves and you will make mistakes....
Which is the invalidation entry in 15M, or how you decide not to take this trade? I assume that if there is not a engulf bar during the 4 hours there will be no trade. But is there any other reason ?

thanks
  • #329
  • Apr 21, 2013 10:59am Apr 21, 2013 10:59am
Quoting relaxtrading
Which is the invalidation entry in 15M, or how you decide not to take this trade? I assume that if there is not a engulf bar during the 4 hours there will be no trade. But is there any other reason ? thanks
If we don't have an M15 engulfing confirming the H4 one ... within the following 4 hours ... that means that there's no momentun in the direction of our expected signal.
MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder
  • #330
  • Apr 21, 2013 11:45am Apr 21, 2013 11:45am
With regards the strategy, there's nothing more I can add... all you need is in here...

Focus on the risk to reward and forget the win rate.

If you have trade examples I will happily comment on them....
tradewith60
  • #331
  • Apr 21, 2013 12:00pm Apr 21, 2013 12:00pm
Quoting 60minuteman
I believe this is what we are already doing pip.. Price can't range really, there are only 16 m15's in a h4, its near impossible for the signal not to give an entry or invalidation. back test, you will see what I mean You should never be tricked and miss the move, we always have the option of entry with the h4 breakout, that being said it is impossible for price to move with out closing over s/r as discussed earlier in the thread... there will always be a signal.... But you should accept that you will miss a few moves and you will make mistakes....
Sorry, it wasn't clear you were adding to the winning entries. I also understood you wanted the M15 trigger to appear within the very next H4.
Below G/U 9th of Apr 02:00 UTC. Only the 5th M15 engulfer worked but it happend after the next H4 closed in the following one.

H4
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: H4.png Size: 31 KB


M15
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: M15.png Size: 31 KB
No greed. No fear. Just maths.
  • #332
  • Apr 21, 2013 12:21pm Apr 21, 2013 12:21pm
60m...Awesome stuff you have here, almost as good as your Buy/Sell line which I have incorporated in my winning strategy and it has taken it to another level. I trade H4 Engulfing, IB and Pinbar with entry from the h1....analyzing daily candle.

There are times when the day closes very strong but immediately reverse, your daily S/R line make this issue clearer for me, that is price not opening above/below the previous candle close. I have read the thread a few times and looked at your website....for S/R lines are we looking at the current candles are we look at say candles a few weeks ago that have opening/closing prices a few pips away.

Example...New york close on EJ on April 12, closed with an engulfing bear H4, however the next candle fail to close above the Engulfing bearish candle....hence we still remain bias as a bear and will only take engulfing bear /IB on 15m below H4 bearish engulfing S/R.

Your Take Profit intrigue me also as you are trading to the next S/R on h4 (daily) with confidence and accuracy. I backtested this with some entries I took from January to April on EJ/EU and I am impressed with the accuracy of the system in alignment with my standard way of entering.

Look at attached chart and give your thought process in terms of entries h4 S/R daily S/R and targets, this will help me understand your process, unless my above analysis as per your sys is correct.
Thanks
Tundafx
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ej april 12 - 15 analysis.gif Size: 82 KB
  • #333
  • Apr 21, 2013 12:35pm Apr 21, 2013 12:35pm
Quoting PipMeUp
Sorry, it wasn't clear you were adding to the winning entries. I also understood you wanted the M15 trigger to appear within the very next H4. Below G/U 9th of Apr 02:00 UTC. Only the 5th M15 engulfer worked but it happend after the next H4 closed in the following one. H4 {image} M15 {image}
yeah, some don't work out, some lose... it's the element of trading that causes a lot of failure,

But you can lose and be profitable.



EDIT...

think of it a different way.... did we nearly get a really cheap entry right at the start of a new trend that went for a long long way?

So we were a little unlucky with our chosen entry technique there, but if we hit 2 or 3 of those big runs a week we will be doing very nicely indeed..

thats the mindset...allow the market to win but be clever, when we do get the break we will be winning much more than we lose
tradewith60
  • #334
  • Apr 21, 2013 1:35pm Apr 21, 2013 1:35pm
Quoting Tundafx
60m...Awesome stuff you have here, almost as good as your Buy/Sell line which I have incorporated in my winning strategy and it has taken it to another level. I trade H4 Engulfing, IB and Pinbar with entry from the h1....analyzing daily candle. There are times when the day closes very strong but immediately reverse, your daily S/R line make this issue clearer for me, that is price not opening above/below the previous candle close. I have read the thread a few times and looked at your website....for S/R lines are we looking at the current candles...
ok.... it's a key element of s/r so I will try and make it clear...

1. If h4 is closing down below h4 s/r we know it will keep going until it hits a daily line (or higher)

2. then we have a h4 close up but not over the h4 s/r (not engulf long in fact an inside bar). So at this point the low of the h4 engulf is a possible daily s/r that is going to stop the move and turn it...

3. If it is the s/r that is going to stop the move, the bottom, then we wont trade lower than it... so we could trade the breakout short?... which is exactly what I would do.. and I think I may of and posted it here...

Heres a pic to illustrate. (my h4's are slightly different but tell the same story)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screen shot 2013-04-21 at 19.34.16.png Size: 109 KB
tradewith60
  • #335
  • Apr 21, 2013 1:37pm Apr 21, 2013 1:37pm
Quoting Tundafx
60m...Awesome stuff you have here, almost as good as your Buy/Sell line which I have incorporated in my winning strategy and it has taken it to another level. I trade H4 Engulfing, IB and Pinbar with entry from the h1....analyzing daily candle. There are times when the day closes very strong but immediately reverse, your daily S/R line make this issue clearer for me, that is price not opening above/below the previous candle close. I have read the thread a few times and looked at your website....for S/R lines are we looking at the current candles...
I will go into the tp's more this week...
tradewith60
  • #336
  • Apr 21, 2013 1:48pm Apr 21, 2013 1:48pm
more examples, EJ H4.... The only pattern that HAS to happen, its pure price action and it is the only thing that's real, everything else is just another way of representing this
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screen shot 2013-04-21 at 19.47.03.png Size: 42 KB
tradewith60
  • #337
  • Apr 21, 2013 1:58pm Apr 21, 2013 1:58pm
60Minuteman....more examples, EJ H4.... The only pattern that HAS to happen, its pure price action and it is the only thing that's real, everything else is just another way of representing this

I agree and I only trade Pure price action....Explanation help to clarify my thoughts....Respect
  • #338
  • Apr 21, 2013 1:58pm Apr 21, 2013 1:58pm
H4 flow on EJ... of course there is no reason you cannot also trade the hints... same process...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screen shot 2013-04-21 at 19.57.20.png Size: 73 KB
tradewith60
  • #339
  • Apr 21, 2013 2:17pm Apr 21, 2013 2:17pm
Quoting 60minuteman
more examples, EJ H4.... The only pattern that HAS to happen, its pure price action and it is the only thing that's real, everything else is just another way of representing this {image}
Hi 60minuteman,

I have a couple of question regarding your this strategy.

1. Regarding your above chart what do you mean by closing above H4 support resistance?Are you considering closing above previous H4 bar open ,high ,low , close or closing only above previous H4 bar open? Can you explain.

2. Also while considering closing above previous H4 bar support resistance do you considering closing above last beaish bar (change happening from downtrend to uptrend) and closing below last bullish bar in (change happening from uptrend to down trend)?

3. when you see signal engulfing but its in all time low,How do you plot the support resistance for take profit.For example please see following chart following signal.Let me know how you could have been drawn the target profit level.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 59 KB
  • #340
  • Apr 21, 2013 2:30pm Apr 21, 2013 2:30pm
Quoting bedayan
Hi 60minuteman, I have a couple of question regarding your this strategy. 1. Regarding your above chart what do you mean by closing above H4 support resistance?Are you considering closing above previous H4 bar open ,high ,low , close or closing only above previous H4 bar open? Can you explain. 2. Also while considering closing above previous H4 bar support resistance do you considering closing above last beaish bar (change happening from downtrend to uptrend) and closing below last bullish bar in (change happening from uptrend to down trend)? 3....
1. If im looking to go long im looking to close over the open of the last bear close (if its over open and high even better..)
If im looking to go short im looking for a close below the open of the last bull bar.

2. Not 100% sure what you're asking here...?

3. you can trail behind the last h4 high as an alternative tp/exit... All time high and low don't happen too often anyway.
tradewith60
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