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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #39,841
  • Apr 20, 2013 8:31am Apr 20, 2013 8:31am
Quoting frz
yes, it's clear sir. it's the basic foundation of my current MO in the range. maybe i shoud see it in the bigger context. i just don't suppose it can wheleee.. wow. i can see it now. many thanks fti. Regards
one enhances one gives.
so if you on performance machines , please wear your helmet.
may just save your life.

regards
  • #39,842
  • Apr 20, 2013 8:40am Apr 20, 2013 8:40am
Quoting fti
one enhances one gives. so if you on performance machines , please wear your helmet. may just save your life. regards
ok, captain.
it's always dangerous if not have the balance. even in life.
helmet is a must.

much obliged.

Regards
steady as she goes
  • #39,843
  • Edited 9:36am Apr 20, 2013 8:43am | Edited 9:36am
Quoting cuthbert
pre programmed trading instructions........ they evolve in strategies and mm to adjust terrain. i call it nimbleness. small traders lack operational and capital resources even if they have intellectual capacity to built robots. regards reminds i had 20+ robot strategies before hitting the thread. none of it was not profitable. even in all terrains. is not the right attitude to ask, even if the question is legitimate.
I am looking for as they do ... last link in the system is again trader.System controls and monitors mm,unexpected news, jump diffusion model and many more ... all in connection (in nanoseconds) direct
to the exchange.

rgs

Impressive is the starting capital, which is
very much less than € 50,000
they are now a market maker, In 2011, 238 million contracts were
traded.
  • #39,844
  • Apr 20, 2013 9:39am Apr 20, 2013 9:39am
Quoting Gro
I am looking for as they do ... last link in the system is again trader.System controls and monitors mm,unexpected news, jump diffusion model and many more ... all in connection (in nanoseconds) direct to the exchange. rgs Impressive is the starting capital, which is very much less than € 50,000 they are now a market maker, In 2011, 238 million contracts were traded.
ai ya why worry about them.
They do what they want do.
are you part of it?
otherwise whats the point?
They probably know what they doing, do you?
out of 100% probably 5 % hits it big time for a time.
Then probably 5% of the 5 remains consistent. and they probably not give you the time of the day even when you life depends on it.

regards
  • #39,845
  • Apr 20, 2013 9:47am Apr 20, 2013 9:47am
Quoting fti
you missed most important component. Your state of your book. rescue, every one can. question is whether they can afford it. Eating every one can also. Those who dare not eat are normally those who cannot shit anymore. The worst is when after nice chewing , one cannot swallow it. There ways time the rescue , so as to minimise the cost and maximise the productivity. There also way just use the ego. if have lots money normally just will use the egor. Thats surest way get into a big hole. Believe me egor knows how to hide. sometimes sees him...
Hi Fti and Frz

As I am new here I should say thankyou for this line of thread, it is both revealing and challenging, at all times, thoughtful and buliding.

To a couple of these issues and please excuse if I err on any thoughts or beliefs, but revelation does bring about progress..hopefully for the better as I will learn forever and thank both friend and foe for their input.

Firstly, I have never liked stops, as is said here with a different vernacular.. I think these are easily read by machines and brokers and anyone else out there who buys and sells anything 'whats ya bottom line mate?, whats your best price old chap?I give you special one time price?' etc :-)'...sorry too much?

If I read wrong (which is part) I will cut. If market environment or sentiment supports the 'feel', if data is not a problem, if iI can 'AFFORD' the rescue...I will flank to either side, mostly with the same pair ,sometimes in the cross, money managements comes into play and %'s are the generals responsibility and to be handled appropriately, I do not get the calculator out but my exposure is never more than 1-3%, if I can bring home most.. so be it, dollar average,add/subtract etc dependent upon the market battle environment which is constantly changing... I think of what the rescue workers are taught..Dr ABC. charming fellow he is..Danger Response AIrway Breathing Circulation and before the trade, what is my EXIT.
If I am rushed in close hand to hand, I step out to a 'slower dance' as Fti so eloquently puts it.

I basically trade naked which at my age is very irresponsible :-) but just FEELS SO DAMN GOOD! though I do look at tools on a seperate chart occasionally in the daily range,pivots,55,200,handles and of course the miracle of fibs..this gives me notice to what others are programmed to and where their targets may be hiding, these must be considered, in my humble opinion, as the other sides 'batleplan' but which one is it today... no one can say definitvely so in a way their useless, you roll up at the gig and no ones there!! thats where I find the actual price action tells you the moment,the trend,the want THE actual price where exchange can be made,there is less room to deceive in the price action and nowhere to hide...though through this thread and fti's knowledge base and experience, I am finding their are many tricks of the trade he knows that I do not...graciously he has offered this thread which should be digested by every trader out there...and reheated and digested numerous times :-)

Having said all this I try not to overthink the market,the battle. I have the priveledge of spending the time watching the 'paint dry' 18-20 hours some days.. with alooted timeouts and suppliments..but mostly mid asia pre Europe open and close and US open. I trade small lots as it is my money and I love the battle..LOVE the battle.

So thats it guys...rip me to shreads please..if you look at my avatar closely you will see my money manager in the backgound so I am used to a good thrashing!

Take care and thankyou for the input.

Regards

Li
  • #39,846
  • Apr 20, 2013 10:04am Apr 20, 2013 10:04am
Quoting fti
ai ya why worry about them. They do what they want do. are you part of it? otherwise whats the point? They probably know what they doing, do you? out of 100% probably 5 % hits it big time for a time. Then probably 5% of the 5 remains consistent. and they probably not give you the time of the day even when you life depends on it. regards
hi fti
Impressive is the starting capital, which is
very much less than € 50,000
they are now a market maker.

founder of the company now it does not in company.He established a fund against corruption and the Foundation for Education
Development and Promotion of Science.
Impressive.

PS "use what it offers civilization" ... "Who knew the evil of war, know also profit"
rgs
  • #39,847
  • Edited 11:40am Apr 20, 2013 11:12am | Edited 11:40am
Quoting Gro
hi fti Impressive is the starting capital, which is very much less than € 50,000 they are now a market maker. founder of the company now it does not in company.He established a fund against corruption and the Foundation for Education Development and Promotion of Science. Impressive. PS "use what it offers civilization" ... "Who knew the evil of war, know also profit" rgs
I see. ok gro,
ya wonder who their tax consultant.
need shoes? ok
please fill in form c and make 3 duplicates of form.
attach form EA and form BA for verifications.
Don't call us, leave your fax number, if thing in order we will fax you for interview.
yes very impressive.
after the directors return from their skiing trip.

Ya ya makes me wonder.
Bills have left the gates too.

Me i left to my bed already.
see you.
Need energy, to mollo they may want push the 1.3 curruption.

regards
  • #39,848
  • Apr 20, 2013 11:43am Apr 20, 2013 11:43am
Quoting liqidone
Hi Fti and Frz As I am new here I should say thankyou for this line of thread, it is both revealing and challenging, at all times, thoughtful and buliding. To a couple of these issues and please excuse if I err on any thoughts or beliefs, but revelation does bring about progress..hopefully for the better as I will learn forever and thank both friend and foe for their input. Firstly, I have never liked stops, as is said here with a different vernacular.. I think these are easily read by machines and brokers and anyone else out there who buys and...

wow, just saw your post.
Sorry,my energies now low.
after rest i will engage you.

wow lovely hobbies, you padi divers or party divers?

regards
  • #39,849
  • Apr 21, 2013 2:00am Apr 21, 2013 2:00am
Quoting fti
wow, just saw your post. Sorry,my energies now low. after rest i will engage you. wow lovely hobbies, you padi divers or party divers? regards
Hi fti

The avatar is visual reference (not real..i hope) the big guy in the background is mostly known as 'Arrogance' but has other alias's...confidence and arrogance is a very fine line, we all need confidence but arrogance is delibilitating to self and those all around you..."you never see it until its too late.. and when its too late, it is mostly fatal".

I was a pearl diver for 20 odd years in a previous life, wonderful experience, very competitive, very healthy... though the spring tide lay up's weren't good for the liver :-)

Looking forward to all comments and they can come at anytime...I have 2595 pages to go :-) and then some! very much enjoying this.

Regards

Li
  • #39,850
  • Edited 6:28am Apr 21, 2013 6:05am | Edited 6:28am
Quoting liqidone
Hi fti The avatar is visual reference (not real..i hope) the big guy in the background is mostly known as 'Arrogance' but has other alias's...confidence and arrogance is a very fine line, we all need confidence but arrogance is delibilitating to self and those all around you..."you never see it until its too late.. and when its too late, it is mostly fatal". I was a pearl diver for 20 odd years in a previous life, wonderful experience, very competitive, very healthy... though the spring tide lay up's weren't good for the liver :-) Looking forward...
Double wow.
talk about attention to details.
Couldn't see the 3 rd party until enlarged the avatar. have big company.
Sorry my eye sight not very good these days. Right eye not seems to be recovering.
Is that a great white? Wow.

Also sorry for late reply.
Mom is also not feeling very well.
So i have to struggle a little more , make sure things around the house is ok.

Triple WOW, pearl diving, that way exceeded my thoughts.
The southern mikimoto competition. MY Hat off to you.
I was asking padi diver or party diver, because i had a diver friend long time ago.
He went back to Italy for long time already. He was the one taught me lots about diving.
He used to dive welding for oil rigs.
Padi divers gets about $300usd per hour on the job while party divers gets only $200.
if one is padi certified diver, one is like have instructors rated. So command premium pricing.
Whereas is not padi certified, he told me is peeps like me, divers without paper.

Wow, pearl diving, takes a tough person. Long time ago i visited a mikimoto pearl farm.
Wow the divers go down without aqua lungs and stay down for many minutes, they use some kind of nasal aparatus only.
not even have wet suit.

You said you have a money manager managing you. I would presume that is your diving partner/ life partner probably.
the great white is behind her, so i would presume , she's the boss huh.

ok, back to your earlier posting, you talked about point 1 , about stops.
you will encounter that discussion as you go along the thread.
This subject was well discussed,as it was very touchy subject.
Mostly because traders are told , "Good trader never trade without stops" in the dealing communities.
But most not understand the real meaning behind trading without stops.
mostly peeps believe must place stops in markets to protect from sudden volatility and account protection.
But peeps not realise that this type of thinking came from the futures industry and the peeps teaching the use of stops is because of overtrading there due to being leveraged. So that the only safeguard agaist over losses.
In the retail FX markets is different. The market makers are providing the orders filling and they have for traders a stoploss mechanism where by they auto execute traders portfolios where necessary to prevent trader overlosses.
In the futures industry, there are market limits daily that suspends markets once limits are reached. In FX there no limits on the markets range, so there will always be prices from market makers. So far no one ever hear of traders being sued for overlosses yet, because they auto executed once they reach account call margin point.

A deep thought tickled me on your second point. about your nudity.
I suspect that you sure looking dame good naked, most divers have beautiful bodies.
My concern is not about how good you looking.
Was just that i detected some duality in your thoughts.
I following discussion on this matter. I like to understand more on your thoughts on that subject. And i like highlight some points about the duality of your thoughts, and see if you are in agreement to it dangers.

regards
  • #39,851
  • Edited 7:01am Apr 21, 2013 6:35am | Edited 7:01am
About diving, Li, I not a good diver.
Only time i dive from boat is when i down there with speargun fighting with gangsters who keep cutting my fishing lines and catch.
Normally only with aqua tank and gun. Oh the aqua tank not the bugis street type "aqua"

These gangsters very delicious cooked in fish curry powder. So lots incentive to get them.

The reason i not good diver because i have bouyancy problem. I am very negative, and take lots weighting get me down and i not like go down with weights, because then coming up i gonna need balloon help. so i seldom go deep, mostly only few fathoms just to shoot the gangsters.
I must confess, i love and prefer tuna trawling with wire lines from boat. Is so damn bloody , makes one feel like a gladiator. But the cake is when the porpoise approaches boat for their feed share for guiding me to school. They are so human friendly , and so wonderful creatures.

regards

Oh forgot tell, i cannot go too deep also because some insect buzzing in my ears when i get deep.
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  • #39,852
  • Apr 21, 2013 7:06am Apr 21, 2013 7:06am
首席万岁!!!!快点好起来!

I hope you are enjoying the grate game of Forex.

chief did corn feeding is in progress in gbp/usd if yes, than hunting is in the corner???
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #39,853
  • Apr 21, 2013 7:11am Apr 21, 2013 7:11am
Quoting priceaction1
首席万岁!!!!快点好起来! I hope you are enjoying the grate game of Forex. chief did corn feeding is in progress in gbp/usd if yes, than hunting is in the corner???

huh?
is just that seems much scalping going on i presume.
So is take lots balls holding prices. So if market makers moving fast ducking the on coming bullets, we not going get robust stablity.
These seems very hairy times make markets. So market makers move fast. And because they the source of liquidity, things gets jerky.

I like hunt the 1.3 euro and 1.5 cable possibilities, but one need to see that its happening before engaging.
keep dancing, it may just show.

regards
  • #39,854
  • Apr 21, 2013 7:15am Apr 21, 2013 7:15am
only for your eyes!

Inserted Video
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #39,855
  • Edited 7:54am Apr 21, 2013 7:28am | Edited 7:54am
Quoting priceaction1
only for your eyes! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bv_cEeDlop0
: )Thanks.
Her peak.
Still wondering if she ever paid the composer of this song his royalties yet after apologising to him for not knowing who the composer.
She picked up the song from ear.
Is a beautiful song, thanks, priceaction1.

衷心,衷心
probablly reason why i moon gazing lots.

regards

just realised I sounds like a wolf. moon gazing lots
  • #39,856
  • Apr 21, 2013 7:46am Apr 21, 2013 7:46am
gold!

the demand of physical gold is increased after drop,
the cost of production/ mining of gold is near about 1300$/1 onz.
if I am correct.
than is the people short at this point are gathering in a cadge?
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #39,857
  • Apr 21, 2013 8:08am Apr 21, 2013 8:08am
Quoting priceaction1
gold! the demand of physical gold is increased after drop, the cost of production/ mining of gold is near about 1300$/1 onz. if I am correct. than is the people short at this point are gathering in a cadge?
traditionally, when economies are weak , the flight to safety is to Gold.
But this time around we seeing a change in trend.
Because as we seeing weakness begining to unfold in economies, Gold is not holding ground well.
there seems have Gold unloading in markets.
the thing is i not sure if is manipulative suppression for bargain hunting, or the world masters are moving away from the Gold basket, lead by the us of a.

Me prefer to believe is bargain hunting because i see no better store of value traditionally than Gold.
But the world, sometimes they have mind of their own. or maybe i am just too traditional.

regards
  • #39,858
  • Edited 8:34am Apr 21, 2013 8:15am | Edited 8:34am
Quoting liqidone
Hi Fti and Frz As I am new here I should say thankyou for this line of thread, it is both revealing and challenging, at all times, thoughtful and buliding. To a couple of these issues and please excuse if I err on any thoughts or beliefs, but revelation does bring about progress..hopefully for the better as I will learn forever and thank both friend and foe for their input. Firstly, I have never liked stops, as is said here with a different vernacular.. I think these are easily read by machines and brokers and anyone else out there who buys and...

Ok Li.
i never like ripping peeps to shreds.
I like you sit think about this for a moment.
regarding dualistic thinking.

I will be trying show some examples of the thought/decision process add to your thoughts.

you mentioned you watch some indicators on the side.
Most do. esp when we at lost of what happening in the market place.

I like highlight to you that mostly that is a mind hampering process.
this because firstly you may begin lean towards bias faster than if you tried feel what's happening in markets.
But i do agree that sometimes one can get so lost that one needs some form of indication assist.
Over time is possible if one lean too heavily on the bias need, then one begins lose abilities on the visual price feels.

One example of this mindset impediment is very clear if you ever engaged in flea training.
You see.
Fleas , they can jump, very very high.
the way flea trainers trains fleas is by putting obsticles in the path of the flea.
normally in a jar container with a lid.
Although, the flea can easily jump out of the jar,
when a lid is applied. the flea keeps hitting on the lid and after some time.
It yields.
After such a process. then one can remove the lid, and you will find that the muscle memory of the flea had restricted the fleas jump to the point of when it keeps hitting itself on the lid.
Then from then onwards, the fleas ability jump will be in reality limited to the that.
One can remove the lid and the flea will never be able jump out of the jar.

In the trading perspective, this also happens to traders.
When one uses indicators , one begins to yield the though processes bias to the indicators.
and after some time one feels naked without them assist.

Please not feel that i am against indicators, some are quite useful, no doubt will be laggers.
Gives some perspective to thought direction.
But long term use, i warn can cripple ones ability dance properlly.
so use them sparingly and not use too many.
that only my advise. You need think is this is happening to you.
I not know you so very well so is just a general perspective from what you posted.
and not my having privilage see how you using them and what your decision making process.

regards
  • #39,859
  • Apr 21, 2013 8:24am Apr 21, 2013 8:24am


if I am a big gold holder and want to sold my holding, what I do to do.
1, on one morning I awake up and called my broker to put my sell order at market opening with out looking any buyer is there,(the recent case)
or
2, I call them and ask for best possible solution to get best price.



or up side-down

3 I forecast the world economy is going to further downside. so I need lot of gold but at less price. provide funds to my broker and unleash him to do what he want but I need xxx volume of gold at xx price.

the dust is is in the air. I want to see my moon. as soon as possible.
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #39,860
  • Edited 8:54am Apr 21, 2013 8:42am | Edited 8:54am
Quoting priceaction1
if I am a big gold holder and want to sold my holding, what I do to do. 1, on one morning I awake up and called my broker to put my sell order at market opening with out looking any buyer is there,(the recent case) or 2, I call them and ask for best possible solution to get best price. or up side-down 3 I forecast the world economy is going to further downside. so I need lot of gold but at less price. provide funds to my broker and unleash him to do what he want but I need xxx volume of gold at xx price. the dust is is in the air. I want...

don't think like that.
no one can 一手遮天.
some real big boys can do for few minutes, thats about it.
Some power can manipulate the conditions for it.
Market still have its own responses.
yes?

prudence is to have strategic positioning, deal with what ever conditions that unfolds , as it unfolds.
If one has a bias, is also ok, if ones knows how to use timing to do what one wants to do.
Try not fight the flow. Never knows whats behind it.


Always remember when one initiaties a position, as you mention call broker and dump your holding.
Be assure there are oppposite parties taking the trade.
and every one , counterparty, brokers, dealers, stockist, shorties. Everyone will be trying make a few bucks from your exposure for their living.
It doesn't matter how big one is .

一山還有一山高,強沖.................


regards
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