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Trading EURUSD only

  • #43,181
  • Apr 18, 2013 8:04pm Apr 18, 2013 8:04pm
EUR Tech Trader
For now we have our offer at the 50% fib of the decline from the Feb high - at 1.323. We will lower our offer should there be further bearish evidence - a close below the 200 day MA would provide that evidence.
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #43,182
  • Apr 19, 2013 4:38am Apr 19, 2013 4:38am
With the Eurozone current account exceeding expectations I think the pair is bullish at least in the interim. this despite the negative german PPI data earlier in the day which had little effect on the up trend.
  • #43,183
  • Apr 19, 2013 5:09am Apr 19, 2013 5:09am
move to 3115 level makes the up channel valid but considering the H&S pattern what can be the level at which H&S pattern is completely valid . can anyone help ?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: h&s.gif Size: 60 KB
  • #43,184
  • Apr 19, 2013 5:20am Apr 19, 2013 5:20am
Quoting gaurav.132
move to 3115 level makes the up channel valid but considering the H&S pattern what can be the level at which H&S pattern is completely valid . can anyone help ? {image}
I haven't really looked at it in detail (validity in this case), but the simple answer is when the neckline has been broken and retested (rejected).
Gone to a better place
  • #43,185
  • Apr 19, 2013 5:25am Apr 19, 2013 5:25am
Quoting smikester
I haven't really looked at it in detail (validity in this case), but the simple answer is when the neckline has been broken and retested (rejected).
looking at the levels can we say that when it breaks the level of 3000 it broke the neckline . I just want to confirm i am right or wrong .
  • #43,186
  • Apr 19, 2013 6:22am Apr 19, 2013 6:22am
EUR/USD Tech Trader

SHORT 1.3067

Consolidates below yday's top and recovery action is limited for now. That said bearish momentum has waned so caution advised. Short trades established in Asia targeting 1.2750 lows. We have lowered the stop to the key 50% fibo to reduce risk on the trade. Day indicators show room to fall.
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #43,187
  • Apr 19, 2013 6:23am Apr 19, 2013 6:23am
Quoting EuroTraderJD
What a woman! How nice. I come back from an IT meeting and I see Ms Market greeting me at the door with +26 (risky short at that time @75) pips and growing (by the looks of the 5&15 SMA both 10M & 30M). What a woman. Glad I didnt kick her to the curb with a SL when the price went to 309x. Almost as good as Hot Mama having a dinner for me when I come over.
Hah congrats it's a win/win situation for you. I also am in IT.
Know when to hold em, Know when to fold em!
  • #43,188
  • Apr 19, 2013 6:26am Apr 19, 2013 6:26am
Quoting EuroTraderJD
EUR/USD Tech Trader SHORT 1.3067 Consolidates below yday's top and recovery action is limited for now. That said bearish momentum has waned so caution advised. Short trades established in Asia targeting 1.2750 lows. We have lowered the stop to the key 50% fibo to reduce risk on the trade. Day indicators show room to fall.
Hey my man be careful. I am still long at 3052z. Mmm by the way cafe is served


7:30amEUR
German Buba President Weidmann Speaks
Know when to hold em, Know when to fold em!
  • #43,189
  • Apr 19, 2013 6:28am Apr 19, 2013 6:28am
Quoting goods
Hah congrats it's a win/win situation for you. I also am in IT.
seems like we have got many engineers who are becoming traders . I am also from electronics
  • #43,190
  • Apr 19, 2013 6:30am Apr 19, 2013 6:30am
JK on FX

Short video and commentary

http://www.jkonfx.com/
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #43,191
  • Apr 19, 2013 6:32am Apr 19, 2013 6:32am
Quoting goods
Hey my man be careful. I am still long at 3052z. Mmm by the way cafe is served 7:30am EUR German Buba President Weidmann Speaks
Thanks brother but this isnt my trade. Its one of the tech traders I follow. I am short @ 75 still.

But I will have a double no make that a triple espresso with that mother nature smoke
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #43,192
  • Apr 19, 2013 6:37am Apr 19, 2013 6:37am
Quoting gaurav.132
looking at the levels can we say that when it breaks the level of 3000 it broke the neckline . I just want to confirm i am right or wrong .
Yes. 1.3 is key. Trading the daily with large stops and patience a break there could be a good trade. I am looking for a break and retest (hourly- smaller stops) of something like this:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd130419h1.JPG Size: 76 KB


That's what I look for. Friday might not be a good day to take it, though.
Gone to a better place
  • #43,193
  • Apr 19, 2013 6:51am Apr 19, 2013 6:51am
Quoting fibstalker
Hello all, quick update on Euro FX futures, Dollar Index and S&P500 (no pictures sorry, but you can check the video on my blog). Euro-Dollar FX currency futures While lots of people think this is the start of a resumed move lower, I think this move lower is due to failure of a continuation higher in the lower timeframes. Scenario 1. The upmove in the Euro is still intact and the current move lower is going to be an opportunity for bulls to add to their long positions. We have support starting at the 1.3040 area and if price does not pierce the 1.30...
Hello all,
following up on my latest update on the Euro FX futures, here is a new update and chart.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1366371867



The Euro is finding support at an extension area starting at 1.3040. On a smaller timeframe (4-hour) is ha resistance starting at 1.3105. This is a box play at the moment and the two levels to monitor are: 1.3132 on the upside and 1.3000 on the downside.

The two scenarios are:

Scenario 1. Price is at the 1.3100-05 area of resistance at the moment. If the Euro is capable of climbing above the 1.3132 level the support area starting at 1.3040 that held in the last days is confirmed. In that case, even if price should come back for a re-test, that support and long participation area could hold.

Scenario 2. If the resistance at 1.3100-05 sees participation on the short side, this could help price breaking the 1.3000 level and bring price slighly lower into the next area of support and long participation starting at the 1.2980. There price could also find the retail participation buying the test of the 20-day SMA. We could see a bounce towards new highs or at least towards the next resistance area starting at 1.3240.

Let me know what you think. The related video will be on my blog in the European afternoon.

Thanks
Cheers
-fibstalker
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #43,194
  • Apr 19, 2013 6:51am Apr 19, 2013 6:51am
Guys,

I have been waiting for COT timingcharts.com to update their charts to include COT Data.

Here you all go. Seeing as I love CoT data we can now analyze a bit better here


Lets run with the big dogs.

http://timingcharts.com/
Know when to hold em, Know when to fold em!
  • #43,195
  • Apr 19, 2013 7:01am Apr 19, 2013 7:01am
Thanks again Fibstalker

Is this the link to your blog? I didnt see it on your profile page and did a Google search

http://elitefive.wordpress.com/
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #43,196
  • Apr 19, 2013 7:11am Apr 19, 2013 7:11am
@sypherbg

Quoting goods
Buddy I wish I could tell you I am hoping for a push above 1.31 and that acting as support. In the interim I still remain bullish. I will do more COT analasys for everyone this weekend.
And here it is my friend 1.3100+
Know when to hold em, Know when to fold em!
  • #43,197
  • Apr 19, 2013 7:12am Apr 19, 2013 7:12am
hey goods, I had too much coffee today, but my eyes still need some push to stay open, can you please open them on the COT, what are we reading there (if this is not the first time I'm seeing something like this its the second so I'm not very confident at what I can see on this graph. Also I see last COT reading from 09.04.2013, is this the last one available?)

Thanks all for the info.

BTW the market moved and the forum came to life ... nice
Mind you, my first name is Bad. ..."Nunc Id Vides, Nunc Ne Vides"...
  • #43,198
  • Apr 19, 2013 7:13am Apr 19, 2013 7:13am
Hello EuroTrader,
yep this is it. I will add it to my profile.
Thanks for letting me know it.
Have a great day
Cheers
G.


Quoting EuroTraderJD
Thanks again Fibstalker Is this the link to your blog? I didnt see it on your profile page and did a Google search http://elitefive.wordpress.com/
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #43,199
  • Apr 19, 2013 7:13am Apr 19, 2013 7:13am
Quoting goods
@sypherbg And here it is my friend 1.3100+
Good thing i listened to what experience is saying (goods, fibstalker, ETJD and others) and closed my short this morning looking for entry now
Mind you, my first name is Bad. ..."Nunc Id Vides, Nunc Ne Vides"...
  • #43,200
  • Apr 19, 2013 7:13am Apr 19, 2013 7:13am
EURUSD surges on Schauble remarks ECB should reduce liquidity in euro area. DE Shaw algos horrified as this is bad news for ES
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
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