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Ramblings of a Forex Junkie

  • #2,401
  • Apr 17, 2013 11:29am Apr 17, 2013 11:29am
Quoting Seneca pilot
I know how tough it is. The first day after I linked my test account to the explorer I had three losers in a row. I took the forth trade though and ended the day with just a ten pip loss. You have to take that next trade as tough as it can be. Make sure to keep your risk down to one percent. Right now you need positive reinforcement and your losses should be small. You can always increase your trade size later. Also remember to diversify your efforts. If you took the GU daily open along with the EU trade one would have been good and the other not....
As for yesterday my first trade was a short from the weekly open on EU. There was room for a decent TP on that trade down to the rollover price. Yes if you were long from the rolls yesterday the best play was to be long up to or through the higher levels. I took the previous week high short also and lost. Those are the two fiftyish pip losers in my trade explorer. I am not perfect and am probably the worst trade manager alive. I still do ok though and you will too.
  • #2,402
  • Apr 17, 2013 11:29am Apr 17, 2013 11:29am
Quoting Seneca pilot
Also remember to diversify your efforts. If you took the GU daily open along with the EU trade one would have been good and the other not. You have the choice then of whether to reenter on the loser or stick with the winner and get your profits with it. I have said on this thread many times that it is smart to take one pound pair and one euro pair. You can do this with the yen or the dollar but you should be spreading your risk out among more than one pair. Look at my explorer today I traded EJ, GU, UJ and closed out EU shorts from yesterday. I...
Seneca, do you have some sort of dashboard or indicator to tell you which currency pair(s) are best to trade on a particular day?
Cheers
  • #2,403
  • Apr 17, 2013 11:34am Apr 17, 2013 11:34am
Quoting jonnypants
Seneca, do you have some sort of dashboard or indicator to tell you which currency pair(s) are best to trade on a particular day? Cheers
Just my feel. I keep an eye on how the last week or two have been with the yen and dollar and trade the one that has been behaving well. Lately the yen has been driving things and the dollar pairs have not been as good. Last night is a good example. All the yen pairs went straight to the previous day high and never looked back. A good trade manager shorting EJ, UJ, and GJ from that PDH would have made HUGE gains today. I hope to some day become a good trade manager. This is a hard road and it takes many years to erase our natural and long ingrained fears. I will freely admit that it is VERY hard for me to sit on a profit.
  • #2,404
  • Apr 17, 2013 11:40am Apr 17, 2013 11:40am
[quote=jonnypants;6614133]billy open up task manager and look at metatrader cpu consumption - you see the pic below (this is Windows 8 but same principle in 7/XP), there are 2 different MT4s runnin

thankyou for that.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #2,405
  • Apr 17, 2013 11:41am Apr 17, 2013 11:41am
Quoting Seneca pilot
Just my feel. I keep an eye on how the last week or two have been with the yen and dollar and trade the one that has been behaving well. Lately the yen has been driving things and the dollar pairs have not been as good. Last night is a good example. All the yen pairs went straight to the previous day high and never looked back. A good trade manager shorting EJ, UJ, and GJ from that PDH would have made HUGE gains today. I hope to some day become a good trade manager. This is a hard road and it takes many years to erase our natural and long ingrained...
Amen to that brother! I made pips on EJ today by going long at one stage, lol Think I need to go invest in a boxing glove and whack myself around the head every now and again.......
  • #2,406
  • Apr 17, 2013 11:48am Apr 17, 2013 11:48am
Quoting jonnypants
Amen to that brother! I made pips on EJ today by going long at one stage, lol Think I need to go invest in a boxing glove and whack myself around the head every now and again.......

i traded a long too with e/j, if its there you trade it.. Sometimes it is easier after the trading day to say how and why you should of traded, i also got busted on one long too lol, but hey ho at the end of the day as long as we have green pips. be good
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #2,407
  • Apr 17, 2013 11:56am Apr 17, 2013 11:56am
Quoting jonnypants
Amen to that brother! I made pips on EJ today by going long at one stage, lol Think I need to go invest in a boxing glove and whack myself around the head every now and again.......
You can make money counter trend but you have to know your limitations. UJ bounced thirty five pips off the rolls today. Plenty of room to get a profit there but not a trade to try and hold.
  • #2,408
  • Apr 17, 2013 6:32pm Apr 17, 2013 6:32pm
hi everyone hope your all good, and the start of a new day here in the uk. I am trading e/j following the jpn open, be good
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #2,409
  • Apr 18, 2013 4:40am Apr 18, 2013 4:40am
Quoting Seneca pilot
Just my feel. I keep an eye on how the last week or two have been with the yen and dollar and trade the one that has been behaving well. Lately the yen has been driving things and the dollar pairs have not been as good. Last night is a good example. All the yen pairs went straight to the previous day high and never looked back. A good trade manager shorting EJ, UJ, and GJ from that PDH would have made HUGE gains today. I hope to some day become a good trade manager. This is a hard road and it takes many years to erase our natural and long ingrained...
After the few posts by SP yesterday, I no longer see this as a simple method of following 2-3 rules blindly. Traders have to accumulate experience to gain a feel of how to trade and not to trade. This situation is the same as what I have seen in many other threads, the methods seem simple initially, but they are not as more and more time is spent on looking into them.
  • #2,410
  • Apr 18, 2013 6:08am Apr 18, 2013 6:08am
Quoting kk007
After the few posts by SP yesterday, I no longer see this as a simple method of following 2-3 rules blindly. Traders have to accumulate experience to gain a feel of how to trade and not to trade. This situation is the same as what I have seen in many other threads, the methods seem simple initially, but they are not as more and more time is spent on looking into them.
No matter what method you choose, you are going to have to "learn to trade". There is no such thing as follow 2-3 rules blindly, if there were, there would be far more than 5% of people profitable.

There is also no such thing as a system. Some people have spent almost a decade looking for the "system" (one that I know of even longer) and ten years later they still are not profitable. They were looking for the easy way out, the quick fix. It doesn't exist. During that time they could have actually learned to trade, now they are no better off then when they started.

SP said early in his thread that he could give out his method and most people would not be able to trade it profitably.
  • #2,411
  • Apr 18, 2013 6:27am Apr 18, 2013 6:27am
[quote=kk007;6616433]After the few posts by SP yesterday, I no longer see this as a simple method of following 2-3 rules blindly. Traders have to accumulate experience to gain a feel of how to trade and not to trade.

the method SP introduced to this thread is a classic, open range breakout is probably the best trading method going and it is easy to trade. the trouble begins with when to get out of the trade either winning or losing. A lot of new people want maximum amount of pips but this is very difficult to achieve so after having a nice gain they then lose it. Greed needs to be put to one side
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #2,412
  • Apr 18, 2013 7:24am Apr 18, 2013 7:24am
Quoting threei
No matter what method you choose, you are going to have to "learn to trade".
Straight up that has been my problem. I have been jumping around from one trading methodology to the next. Many subscriptions, DVDs, books galore, webinars, you name it. One of my mentors said you need to trade just one system or set-up for at least 3 months straight to get the nuances of it. Another said you need to take at least 50-100 trades with a new set-up the lowest capital possible before putting any real money on the line. Basically he said the same thing as the other but in different words. One guy said he has seen that people usually blow their account about 5 times before they become profitable. Thousands of systems work, it's just I get bored, want to see what else is out there, or most of the time get disappointed too early and move on to something else instead of putting in the needed effort and time. It all comes down to my lack of discipline. Those days are over. I'm picking a strategy and sticking to it. I've lost 3 times in a row on the ORB trade now but I don't even care any more. I know statistically I have an advantage if I keep taking that trade, and over time I will be profitable with it.
  • #2,413
  • Apr 18, 2013 7:37am Apr 18, 2013 7:37am
Quoting threei
No matter what method you choose, you are going to have to "learn to trade". There is no such thing as follow 2-3 rules blindly, if there were, there would be far more than 5% of people profitable. There is also no such thing as a system. Some people have spent almost a decade looking for the "system" (one that I know of even longer) and ten years later they still are not profitable. They were looking for the easy way out, the quick fix. It doesn't exist. During that time they could have actually learned to trade, now they are no better...
I don't think I could answer this any better, but I'll try.

There are plenty of simple "systems" out there. Wait until x, y, and z all line up and the entry is set. Problem is all these things are losers. As I said early on in the thread I use some degree of subjectivity and discretion in my trading. Now if you want simple you came to the right place, but if you want automatic and pure rule based then maybe you should look elsewhere. The turtle method is a glowing example of why strict rules based methods are dangerous. They follow strict rules. It was fairly simple (money management was involved) buying breakouts. They took every single trade no matter what. They made huge money..... for a while, then they lost huge money. Any automatic, rule based, completely democratic trade method will eventually fail because to make it automatic you must curve fit the rules and market conditions change constantly.

I have given some parts of the method that are purely mechanical. Billy mentioned one with the ORB. Others are the London close trades. Both the pound pairs will often bounce off the London close price later during Asia and the next day during Europe and London. These fades can be taken manually as there is normally at least some reaction for ten to thirty pips. Other breakout trades that I do are also fairly mechanical depending on where price is at the time of the breakout.

The levels can be traded manually and still be profitable. I went through an exercise with another reader of the thread recently by e-mail. We took the daily open on EU for the month of November 2012 and assumed taking every trade and retest after a stop out. this test resulted in 29 trades with the win rate being 17 wins, twelve losses, and a RR of 1.5/1. This is exactly the stats that I have been quoting from day one in the thread. The thing about this exercise is that some days there are no trades and some days there were three. Most people don't have the discipline to take the third trade so some discretion comes into play with deciding when the conditions are more favorable to take the trades. If there is major news just prior to hitting a level you have to be able to decide whether to fade that news or back off and let it go.

I have given a method here that professionals have used for decades. Support and resistance is tried, tested, and proven. I simply go a step farther and recommend specific supports and resistances on which to focus your attention. Nothing works all the time and nothing is as simple as when x,y, and z all align then take a trade. It takes many thousands of hours in front of a price chart to hone your skills and there is no short cut around this requirement.

Hope it helps
  • #2,414
  • Apr 18, 2013 7:51am Apr 18, 2013 7:51am
Quoting kk007
After the few posts by SP yesterday, I no longer see this as a simple method of following 2-3 rules blindly. Traders have to accumulate experience to gain a feel of how to trade and not to trade. This situation is the same as what I have seen in many other threads, the methods seem simple initially, but they are not as more and more time is spent on looking into them.
You do this in every fucking thread I see you in. I warned SP to not waste his time on you. Go back to your Choros thread and stop your constant bitching. It's pathetic.
What is any ocean but a multitude of drops?
  • #2,415
  • Apr 18, 2013 8:03am Apr 18, 2013 8:03am
Quoting Xhale
You do this in every fucking thread I see you in. I warned SP to not waste his time on you. Go back to your Choros thread and stop your constant bitching. It's pathetic.
xhale I think I like you
OK I just worked out that ORB probably means Open Range Breakout
Snowbird - bring up a graph of EJ this morning - they was a perfect 'break out' trade......could have grabbed about 50 pips......there was even a pivot there to help you out....check out the 'useless thread' - gleneagles got it
In fact, seneca, get Gleneagles over here! He's one of the few decent posters left on FF now that all the muppets have taken over the EURUSD thread and the likes of PTL and that Jon dude have gone..... <mr sad> (cos I can't find a sad smilie) lol
  • #2,416
  • Apr 18, 2013 8:09am Apr 18, 2013 8:09am
A timely video.
Deffo worth a watch..

Inserted Video
Simplicity is the ultimate in sophistication ~ Leonardo Da Vinci
  • #2,417
  • Apr 18, 2013 8:11am Apr 18, 2013 8:11am
This is a song of hope for all us muppets who haven't quite made it yet
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Q7Vr3yQYWQ
  • #2,418
  • Apr 18, 2013 8:21am Apr 18, 2013 8:21am
Quoting kk007
After the few posts by SP yesterday, I no longer see this as a simple method of following 2-3 rules blindly. Traders have to accumulate experience to gain a feel of how to trade and not to trade. This situation is the same as what I have seen in many other threads, the methods seem simple initially, but they are not as more and more time is spent on looking into them.
If it was as easy as following 1 or 2 rules then you can make an EA and everyone would make money until it doesn't work anymore. Knowing that the lines exist and can provide profits is one part. Thats the well televised success. SP can post charts and show the lines before they even get hit for a profit, but he can't post the days of chart time and testing that it took for him to recognize them in that way. He can't post the all the papers and books he's read. The second part is the hard work of staring at charts everyday for hours at a time, for MONTHS, YEARS for some. It's not that you need to do it for a specific set of time, but if you have looked at 10+ years of market data with the correct mindset, you will set yourself up for success. If you do the work and create the habit of success then you'll see it. It's that not giving up when you don't get it.

This method "is" simple. But it's only simple if you've tested it thoroughly enough. Something about seeing chart data from everyday since 2001 until now that helps.


Edit: Just read the thread and saw someone responded to this already. A bit redundant here. Apologies.
  • #2,419
  • Apr 18, 2013 8:23am Apr 18, 2013 8:23am
Quoting jonnypants
xhale I think I like you OK I just worked out that ORB probably means Open Range Breakout Snowbird - bring up a graph of EJ this morning - they was a perfect 'break out' trade......could have grabbed about 50 pips......there was even a pivot there to help you out....check out the 'useless thread' - gleneagles got it In fact, seneca, get Gleneagles over here! He's one of the few decent posters left on FF now that all the muppets have taken over the EURUSD thread and the likes of PTL and that Jon dude have gone..... <mr sad> (cos I can't find...
I love Gleneagles, if I could figure out his triggers I would add his trades to my arsenal.

I also like Xhale.
  • #2,420
  • Apr 18, 2013 8:28am Apr 18, 2013 8:28am
Quoting Seneca pilot
I love Gleneagles, if I could figure out his triggers I would add his trades to my arsenal. I also like Xhale.
He trades dustbins! Simple enough theory, EU moves in 20 pip beats, EJ in 50 pip beats.....see attached.... he's got an indi now that shows correlation between pairs as well but I think it's a bit of a CPU hog.....
Cheers
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Dustbin Trading.pdf   72 KB | 549 downloads
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