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Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

  • #6,141
  • Apr 17, 2013 3:35pm Apr 17, 2013 3:35pm
Quoting Pip Anon
Well the yen was rather steady until that blurb, and then apparently Lew said G-20 shouldn't target FX rates for competitive advantage. The yen retraced roughly 50% before continuing it's decline (which correlates to Geppy reaching the 50% Fib). It might continue downward. Yen is a trickster. I am not sure it will revist anytime soon. Maybe go up to 23%Fib {image}

Well, The yen is dancing and the pound trying to rally ATM. But IMO it's the dollar being pumped up (why?) right now that's really causing this by dragging UJ up. But it's been in this range for 10 days now. Unless it breaks I feel it will fall back down. Just my 2 cents.
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Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #6,142
  • Apr 17, 2013 3:40pm Apr 17, 2013 3:40pm
Hope you don't mind, I'd like to offer a chart with Schiff pitchforks. Perhaps it will offer some price action guidance.

sjc
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  • #6,143
  • Apr 17, 2013 3:46pm Apr 17, 2013 3:46pm
Quoting albchr
Well, The yen is dancing and the pound trying to rally ATM. But IMO it's the dollar being pumped up (why?) right now that's really causing this by dragging UJ up. But it's been in this range for 10 days now. Unless it breaks I feel it will fall back down. Just my 2 cents. {image} {image}
Dollar may just be a hedge to equities melting. It very well may sink with GBP data. Yen/Dollar futures closing briefly, then may reverse on profit talking, but than again I didn't expect 1.2% on the DX.

You guys trade Geppy more and know the PA. I have had success cross analyzing Yen, and looks like a bottom made on 4H
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When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #6,144
  • Apr 17, 2013 4:11pm Apr 17, 2013 4:11pm
Alright... call me an asshole if you wish (you're most likely right), but I'm tired of all the crap posts in here. You now must have at least 11 vouches to post in this thread.

I started this thread in hopes of getting some like-minded folks involved in one place to trade this pair. I did not start it to answer dumb questions (YES, there is such a thing as a dumb question), babysit, or hand-hold novice traders. There are plenty of resources online and threads on FF for that. This isn't one of them.

I'd love to see the GOOD analysis keep rolling in, but if the thread dies because of this change... so be it. I'd rather have it that way than have it disintegrate with crap posts.
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  • #6,145
  • Apr 17, 2013 4:37pm Apr 17, 2013 4:37pm
I understand man and I think it's a good move for "this" thread. It's so hard to keep a clean good quality place for sharing good trading analysis.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #6,146
  • Apr 17, 2013 5:22pm Apr 17, 2013 5:22pm
Anyway, here's what I'm seeing as of now. The 1H has stopped dead at what I feel is good 1H/4H resistance. It's also capped by the 50 and 200ema's for now with the 50 almost crossing the 200. The daily (closes in 2 hours) looks very bearish ATM as it's at best a spinning top (albeit a large one) within the body of Monday's. The weekly obviously has 2 days left but ATM is a huge hangman after a nice bearish pin last week off strong SR. A lot of wick to fill there possibly.

Bottom of the weekly of the channel is at 141.40ish and even if price reaches that it's still within the overall up trend. So as of now I see this as bearish with room to drop a ways. 147.10ish to 145.50ish areas are what I see possible.
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Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #6,147
  • Apr 17, 2013 5:33pm Apr 17, 2013 5:33pm
Quoting albchr
Anyway, here's what I'm seeing as of now. The 1H has stopped dead at what I feel is good 1H/4H resistance. It's also capped by the 50 and 200ema's for now with the 50 almost crossing the 200. The daily (closes in 2 hours) looks very bearish ATM as it's at best a spinning top (albeit a large one) within the body of Monday's. The weekly obviously has 2 days left but ATM is a huge hangman after a nice bearish pin last week off strong SR. A lot of wick to fill there possibly. Bottom of the weekly of the channel is at 141.40ish and even if price reaches...
Pretty much exactly what I'm seeing... nothing to add to it.

Let's see how Asia/Europe plays it tonight, hopefully a lot like last night
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  • #6,148
  • Apr 17, 2013 5:46pm Apr 17, 2013 5:46pm
Quoting Geppy
Pretty much exactly what I'm seeing... nothing to add to it. Let's see how Asia/Europe plays it tonight, hopefully a lot like last night
That would be most welcome indeed

It's been a hell of a Whiplash Wednesday and a good bounce playing day this morning.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #6,149
  • Apr 17, 2013 7:16pm Apr 17, 2013 7:16pm
It looks like Asia is giving us some early movement (always nice). I'm confident we've put in a lower high now and a 100% fib extension puts a target at ~146.70 which is quite near the low we saw the other day.

Also, recall that the 50% fibo from the BoJ move comes in at ~147.11 so this is a good range for TPs in my opinion.
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  • #6,150
  • Apr 17, 2013 7:33pm Apr 17, 2013 7:33pm
Last 4H closed 30 minutes ago as a spinning top below resistance. GU daily close would indicate a further drop. Looking good so far for the dragon shorts!
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Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #6,151
  • Apr 17, 2013 8:10pm Apr 17, 2013 8:10pm
here's something to chew on it - how relevant are h4 charts. as you know, brokers have different server times, so a different h4 chart configuration will be seen with ibfx vs mbt vs oanda etc.
the spinning top you see on your ibfx is looking completely different on oanda, in fact, this h4 candle from oanda is not closed yet. i'm sure you get the point.

Quoting albchr
Last 4H closed 30 minutes ago as a spinning top below resistance. GU daily close would indicate a further drop. Looking good so far for the dragon shorts! {image}
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #6,152
  • Apr 17, 2013 8:19pm Apr 17, 2013 8:19pm
same applies to every timeframe below weekly. this market is open 24hrs, from monday to friday. officially, there isn't one single daily close. there are however, opening/closings/highs/lows of major trading sessions (asia/tokyo, london/europe, ny).
this is why i think a valid price action interpretation starts from weekly charts, if we are referring to candlesticks. i won't deny there are nice patterns on m15, h1, h4 etc but they are not consistent; we may or may not see the real price action going on behind the usual timeframes just because of the time constraints. a real price action on smaller tfs should interpret levels - support and resistance - much more than candle configuration.

Quoting Scrat
here's something to chew on it - how relevant are h4 charts. as you know, brokers have different server times, so a different h4 chart configuration will be seen with ibfx vs mbt vs oanda etc. the spinning top you see on your ibfx is looking completely different on oanda, in fact, this h4 candle from oanda is not closed yet. i'm sure you get the point.
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #6,153
  • Apr 17, 2013 8:23pm Apr 17, 2013 8:23pm
how am i doing so far, geppy, hope i'm not terribly off-topic here
wouldn't want to get banned from this thread, would i
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #6,154
  • Apr 17, 2013 8:46pm Apr 17, 2013 8:46pm
Quoting Scrat
here's something to chew on it - how relevant are h4 charts. as you know, brokers have different server times, so a different h4 chart configuration will be seen with ibfx vs mbt vs oanda etc. the spinning top you see on your ibfx is looking completely different on oanda, in fact, this h4 candle from oanda is not closed yet. i'm sure you get the point.
Don't get me start, Scrat. MBT (my broker) even has a different daily close (closes at midnight EST)... wtf?
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  • #6,155
  • Apr 17, 2013 8:47pm Apr 17, 2013 8:47pm
Quoting Scrat
how am i doing so far, geppy, hope i'm not terribly off-topic here wouldn't want to get banned from this thread, would i
lol, it's ok... I'll humor you
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  • #6,156
  • Apr 17, 2013 10:49pm Apr 17, 2013 10:49pm
Quoting albchr
lol... dance baby dance... Thanks for the PM PT.
  • #6,157
  • Apr 17, 2013 10:52pm Apr 17, 2013 10:52pm
ok i fuk up, im short on eur/jpy 128.41, s/l 129.58, t/p 122.98 http://www.pic4ever.com/images/hippo.gif
  • #6,158
  • Apr 17, 2013 11:58pm Apr 17, 2013 11:58pm
PA is behaving a lot like last night. That run up above 150 appears to perhaps been a fake breakout just like we had last night.

Interesting...
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  • #6,159
  • Apr 18, 2013 12:05am Apr 18, 2013 12:05am
funny thing, i was just thinking how annoying is this ranging behavior
well they have to try, after all this is the time of the day when tokyo rules and so they are trying to sell yens. i think it's just a test of resistance to see if major orders are picking up from the other side... if yes, up we go... if not, we bounce again.

Quoting Geppy
PA is behaving a lot like last night. That run up above 150 appears to perhaps been a fake breakout just like we had last night. Interesting...
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #6,160
  • Apr 18, 2013 12:19am Apr 18, 2013 12:19am
Quoting Scrat
funny thing, i was just thinking how annoying is this ranging behavior well they have to try, after all this is the time of the day when tokyo rules and so they are trying to sell yens. i think it's just a test of resistance to see if major orders are picking up from the other side... if yes, up we go... if not, we bounce again.
The more I look at the charts, the more this whole thing is looking like a continuation pattern for the next leg down:
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