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Ramblings of a Forex Junkie

  • #2,381
  • Apr 17, 2013 9:52am Apr 17, 2013 9:52am
Hi SP, why didn't you long at the EU weekly open at 1.3077 again?
  • #2,382
  • Apr 17, 2013 10:02am Apr 17, 2013 10:02am
Quoting Seneca pilot
Yes Billy you'd have to be pretty happy with a day like this. I made 5.6% today and my exits were horrible as usual. Shoulda coulda woulda made ten plus percent today if I didn't have to sleep.


due to me having problems with my main trading pc, i have not traded e/u g/u nor oil today as i was doing it manually.. yesterday i lost 2 grand and could do nothing about it lol. just glad i had a stopp loss. But today i traded e/j and u/j and that was good
j
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #2,383
  • Apr 17, 2013 10:18am Apr 17, 2013 10:18am
Quoting kk007
Hi SP, why didn't you long at the EU weekly open at 1.3077 again?
I apologize if this sounds harsh. Only an idiot would take a long on EU after an ECB governor comes out in international media and announces the possibility of rate cuts. Now technically the price came below the previous week high and held there. After this happens buying the weekly open which has already been traded around for two days doesn't make sense to me. I feel that you are trying to poke holes in my trading. I take the trades that make sense to me. I have a good feel for the market and know when to back away and when to jump in. I am not perfect but I do get it right more often than I get it wrong. We have to use our brain as traders, you can't simply take every level that pops up. Why would you want to trade a level that has been trumped by a more important level and traded around for the past two days?
  • #2,384
  • Apr 17, 2013 10:22am Apr 17, 2013 10:22am
Quoting kk007
Thanks, SP, I can see the H&S now, but I don't trade it, so I can't see it in an obvious way. And, I try to prevent the thinking of "what should I have done on hindsight", because I have experience that this mode of thinking had given me too unrealistic profit expectation.
It isn't really hindsight as much as it is awareness. Now I screwed up by taking my profit too early on the GU short. I should have known better because of the H&S. As I said I don't trade the pattern but I am aware of it and have learned over the years to use it as a guide to try and know when to maybe hold a trade for a larger gain. Last night at four in the morning all I wanted to do was take a profit and go to sleep. Please remember I miss seventy percent or more of the trades that come each day because I am not able to sit in front of the monitor for 24 hours. I think my fxbook results speak for themselves.
  • #2,385
  • Apr 17, 2013 10:23am Apr 17, 2013 10:23am
Quoting Seneca pilot
I apologize if this sounds harsh. Only an idiot would take a long on EU after an ECB governor comes out in international media and announces the possibility of rate cuts. Now technically the price came below the previous week high and held there. After this happens buying the weekly open which has already been traded around for two days doesn't make sense to me. I feel that you are trying to poke holes in my trading. I take the trades that make sense to me. I have a good feel for the market and know when to back away and when to jump in. I am not...
Maybe one of the biggest reasons I am not taking trades right now is that I am up 5.6% today and don't want to fack it up. There will always be more trades.
  • #2,386
  • Apr 17, 2013 10:30am Apr 17, 2013 10:30am
If anyone has taken the long from the previous week low in GU assume it will be a bounce. Protect your profits because it may be a short lived bounce.
  • #2,387
  • Apr 17, 2013 10:30am Apr 17, 2013 10:30am
Quoting Seneca pilot
Olarian I hope you got in short on the second ORB trade this thing is cooking. I got thirty pips on half and now with the news its really moving. Might make up for the beginning of the week with this one.
No, I kick myself.
I missed the second ORB short cause I got my daughter from school...
  • #2,388
  • Apr 17, 2013 10:33am Apr 17, 2013 10:33am
[quote=Seneca pilot;6613836]I apologize if this sounds harsh. Only an idiot would take a long on EU after an ECB governor comes out in international media and announces the possibility of rate cuts. Now technically the price came below the previous week high and held there. After this happens buying the weekly open which has already been traded around for two days doesn't make sense to me. I feel that you are trying to poke


somethings cannot be taught especially (the feeling) and like you say there are more days to trade,, well said
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #2,389
  • Apr 17, 2013 10:37am Apr 17, 2013 10:37am
[quote=billytt;6613919]
Quoting Seneca pilot
I apologize if this sounds harsh. Only an idiot would take a long on EU after an ECB governor comes out in international media and announces the possibility of rate cuts. Now technically the price came below the previous week high and held there. After this happens buying the weekly open which has already been traded around for two days doesn't make sense to me. I feel that you are trying to poke somethings cannot be taught especially (the feeling) and like you say there are more days to trade,, well said
I don't want to be mean or hurt anyone but some things take experience and as you said cannot be taught except by one on one instruction. As much as I like you guys none of you will be getting an invitation to casa Chris any time soon, the place is still a mess, I hate moving in almost as much as I hate moving out.
  • #2,390
  • Apr 17, 2013 10:38am Apr 17, 2013 10:38am
Quoting Seneca pilot
I apologize if this sounds harsh. Only an idiot would take a long on EU after an ECB governor comes out in international media and announces the possibility of rate cuts.
Thanks, didn't play attention to the breaking news, I am not great in analysing news impact, but if I see it is red by FF and strong momentum with it, I will not trade.

Quoting Seneca pilot
Now technically the price came below the previous week high and held there. After this happens buying the weekly open which has already been traded around for two days doesn't make sense to me. I feel that you are trying to poke holes in my trading.
I don't try to poke any holes, I just try to understand more instead of guessing how you trade. I will stop asking questions for a while and ask fewer in the future...

Quoting Seneca pilot
It isn't really hindsight as much as it is awareness.
Quoting Seneca pilot
Maybe one of the biggest reasons I am not taking trades right now is that I am up 5.6% today and don't want to fack it up. There will always be more trades.
Ok, I see now. Thanks for sharing.
  • #2,391
  • Apr 17, 2013 10:41am Apr 17, 2013 10:41am
Quoting Seneca pilot
I apologize if this sounds harsh. Only an idiot would take a long on EU after an ECB governor comes out in international media and announces the possibility of rate cuts. Now technically the price came below the previous week high and held there. After this happens buying the weekly open which has already been traded around for two days doesn't make sense to me. I feel that you are trying to poke holes in my trading. I take the trades that make sense to me. I have a good feel for the market and know when to back away and when to jump in. I am not...
Hi Seneca
Just discovered your thread and really enjoyed reading the first dozen pages or so! Keep up the good work - are you still doing the long thoughtful ones?
I presume you are referring to the remarks from Weidmann above? Where do you get your news source from?
I think the big drop in Euro today is more to do with the rather large falls in Stock Markets globally - the Dax had a large crap early on, recovered then crapped out a lot more..

Quoting billytt
due to me having problems with my main trading pc, i have not traded e/u g/u nor oil today as i was doing it manually.. yesterday i lost 2 grand and could do nothing about it lol. just glad i had a stopp loss. But today i traded e/j and u/j and that was good j
Billy, sounds like a PITA! If you haven't already I'd buy a couple of SSDs for 2 x PCs. Make you you patch regularly, use anti-malware etc
Cheers
  • #2,392
  • Apr 17, 2013 10:45am Apr 17, 2013 10:45am
Quoting kk007
Thanks, didn't play attention to the news, I am not great in analysing news impact, but if I see it is red by FF and strong momentum with it, I will not trade. I don't try to poke any holes, I just try to understand more instead of guessing. I will stop asking questions for a while and ask few in the future... Ok, I see now. Thanks for sharing.
Don't be put off KK ask all the questions you want. I can't hear you only read words so I may misinterpret your tone or reasoning. I am a nice and patient guy so if I sound harsh wait two minutes and that will change.

Now the basic reason I don't take every single level every single day is this. I get my bias with the first trade of the day. If I am short with that first trade I will stay short until stopped out or a profit is taken. If I am short and come upon a level I will NOT automatically reverse. I may do one of two things. I may simply take profit and wait to see what happens, or I may hold the trade and see if the level gets broken and I can hold a little longer. Holding longer is not one of my strongest traits so often if the trade is a nice win I will just take the profit and be done. If I take profit at a level and the level breaks I will usually get the opportunity to reenter short again when the level gets retested. Feel and experience guide these decisions. If you are not experienced and are still developing your feel then it is often best to simply take the profit. Don't overtrade two or three trades per day is plenty.
  • #2,393
  • Apr 17, 2013 10:46am Apr 17, 2013 10:46am
Quoting Seneca pilot
I apologize if this sounds harsh. Only an idiot would take a long on EU after an ECB governor comes out in international media and announces the possibility of rate cuts. Now technically the price came below the previous week high and held there. After this happens buying the weekly open which has already been traded around for two days doesn't make sense to me. I feel that you are trying to poke holes in my trading. I take the trades that make sense to me. I have a good feel for the market and know when to back away and when to jump in. I am not...

I am the idiot. But appreciate your response and great advice. Thanks!
  • #2,394
  • Apr 17, 2013 10:49am Apr 17, 2013 10:49am
Quoting Seneca pilot
Don't be put off KK ask all the questions you want. I can't hear you only read words so I may misinterpret your tone or reasoning. I am a nice and patient guy so if I sound harsh wait two minutes and that will change. Now the basic reason I don't take every single level every single day is this. I get my bias with the first trade of the day. If I am short with that first trade I will stay short until stopped out or a profit is taken. If I am short and come upon a level I will NOT automatically reverse. I may do one of two things. I may simply take...
Thanks mate! Learn a lot from you!
  • #2,395
  • Apr 17, 2013 10:49am Apr 17, 2013 10:49am
Quoting jonnypants
Hi Seneca Just discovered your thread and really enjoyed reading the first dozen pages or so! Keep up the good work - are you still doing the long thoughtful ones? I presume you are referring to the remarks from Weidmann above? Where do you get your news source from? I think the big drop in Euro today is more to do with the rather large falls in Stock Markets globally - the Dax had a large crap early on, recovered then crapped out a lot more.. Billy, sounds like a PITA! If you haven't already I'd buy a couple of SSDs for 2 x PCs. Make...
I occasionally get an idea for another long one but I am a little lazy. I do like to write though.

The drop was off to a good start but then the Wiedmann comments just sent it off to the races.

I don't use a squawk I just have the news feed from IFR and keep an eye on the news posts here on this site. I can't justify the price of Reuters or Bloomberg since I really don't trade news that much.
  • #2,396
  • Apr 17, 2013 10:53am Apr 17, 2013 10:53am
Quoting jonnypants
Billy, sounds like a PITA! If you haven't already I'd buy a couple of SSDs for 2 x PCs. Make you you patch regularly, use anti-malware etc Cheers
Hi buddy thanks for the advice, is PITA (pain in the ass) . thing is i run a custom built ea and it is nothing short of spectacular when it works, it sets off my triggers in fast moving markets like oil and i believe it is this doing the problem and we not sure as to why ???. anyway today and yesterday from noon onwards i have been trading like in the old days manually and i have had so much fun
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #2,397
  • Apr 17, 2013 10:57am Apr 17, 2013 10:57am
Quoting Alpe
I am the idiot. But appreciate your response and great advice. Thanks!
You're not an idiot. I am embarrassed by my choice of words there. This is a hard business, trading and I am trying to help, not make people feel bad.

Please read my comments above to KK about how I get my bias and how I manage the trades once I am in and running. Today on EU would have been a struggle around the daily open but once the short was triggered from the Tuesday high it has been smooth sailing all the way down. Each level along the way has broken cleanly and held well. I would have taken two stop outs around the daily open before shorting at the top this morning but getting plenty of pips later to make up for it. Part of trading is also luck. I could just as easily have traded the EU daily open today but I was managing the shorts from yesterday and took GU instead. I was spared the stop outs.
  • #2,398
  • Apr 17, 2013 11:00am Apr 17, 2013 11:00am
Thanks for clarifying SP

I traded your method yesterday and got a 4% drawdown on EUR/USD... I shorted at Monday high(1.3106) and got stopped out, and I shorted again at last week's high(1.3137) and got stopped out again. Since the first trade triggered yesterday would have been the long at (9:00 GMT) 1.3027, I should have looked for a breakout and a retest of the level, right?

Also, this is the first time I am trading fx with real money, and it is very different from just simple backtesting. I know losses are a part of the process, but it still has a psychological impact... Being 4% down on your first day of trading is not a pleasant experience..
  • #2,399
  • Apr 17, 2013 11:22am Apr 17, 2013 11:22am
Quoting galaxys3
Thanks for clarifying SP I traded your method yesterday and got a 4% drawdown on EUR/USD... I shorted at Monday high(1.3106) and got stopped out, and I shorted again at last week's high(1.3137) and got stopped out again. Since the first trade triggered yesterday would have been the long at (9:00 GMT) 1.3027, I should have looked for a breakout and a retest of the level, right? Also, this is the first time I am trading fx with real money, and it is very different from just simple backtesting. I know losses are a part of the process, but it still...
I know how tough it is. The first day after I linked my test account to the explorer I had three losers in a row. I took the forth trade though and ended the day with just a ten pip loss. You have to take that next trade as tough as it can be.

Make sure to keep your risk down to one percent. Right now you need positive reinforcement and your losses should be small. You can always increase your trade size later.

Also remember to diversify your efforts. If you took the GU daily open along with the EU trade one would have been good and the other not. You have the choice then of whether to reenter on the loser or stick with the winner and get your profits with it. I have said on this thread many times that it is smart to take one pound pair and one euro pair. You can do this with the yen or the dollar but you should be spreading your risk out among more than one pair. Look at my explorer today I traded EJ, GU, UJ and closed out EU shorts from yesterday. I do not think it is good to concentrate on only one pair and risk too much in that trade.
  • #2,400
  • Apr 17, 2013 11:25am Apr 17, 2013 11:25am
Quoting billytt
Hi buddy thanks for the advice, is PITA (pain in the ass) . thing is i run a custom built ea and it is nothing short of spectacular when it works, it sets off my triggers in fast moving markets like oil and i believe it is this doing the problem and we not sure as to why ???. anyway today and yesterday from noon onwards i have been trading like in the old days manually and i have had so much fun
billy
open up task manager and look at metatrader cpu consumption - you see the pic below (this is Windows 8 but same principle in 7/XP), there are 2 different MT4s running, 1 of them here can be a CPU hog, the other runs pretty 'lean'....... Go into MT4, close down different chart windows and see if the cpu/memory consumption goes down a lot....should help you work out if a particular chart is killing the PC.....
Good luck
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