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Ramblings of a Forex Junkie

  • #2,341
  • Apr 16, 2013 8:43am Apr 16, 2013 8:43am
Quoting Seneca pilot
EU was weekly open price, GU was London close from Monday. Woke up to the EU testing the previous week high so I am short from there currently.
Me too Targetting yesterdays high?
Simplicity is the ultimate in sophistication ~ Leonardo Da Vinci
  • #2,342
  • Apr 16, 2013 8:58am Apr 16, 2013 8:58am
Quoting Seneca pilot
EU was weekly open price, GU was London close from Monday. Woke up to the EU testing the previous week high so I am short from there currently.
Thanks a lot. Sound stupid questions to ask, after checking.
  • #2,343
  • Apr 16, 2013 9:28am Apr 16, 2013 9:28am
Would you have EU shorted at 1.31066? (Yesterday High)
  • #2,344
  • Apr 16, 2013 9:48am Apr 16, 2013 9:48am
Quoting kk007
Would you have EU shorted at 1.31066? (Yesterday High)
Hard to say, I was asleep and wasn't watching the action. I probably would have shorted it and took the loss then shorted where I have now.
  • #2,345
  • Apr 16, 2013 9:51am Apr 16, 2013 9:51am
Quoting Seneca pilot
Hard to say, I was asleep and wasn't watching the action. I probably would have shorted it and took the loss then shorted where I have now.
I think I should note that over the past two weeks the NY roll has been increasingly important with EU. It turned price today and was the bottom within a few pips. I am going to have to seriously consider adding that level and taking it more into consideration. In the past the Rolls have not been that much of a factor but lately they are.
  • #2,346
  • Apr 16, 2013 11:44am Apr 16, 2013 11:44am
Chris, I see in your fxbook explorer that you opened quite a few EU shorts...for the last 3 or 4 trades I see no level around. What was the reason for the last trades?

Btw, my ORB short trade was stopped out...as well as both trades yesterday...costs me about 1.5%...
  • #2,347
  • Apr 16, 2013 11:48am Apr 16, 2013 11:48am
Quoting Olarion1975
Chris, I see in your fxbook explorer that you opened a few EU shorts...for the last one or two I see no tradable level around. What was the reason for the last trades? Btw, my ORB short trade was stopped out...as well as both trades yesterday...
They are weekly levels and truthfully I am goofing around. I got bored. I am flat in all my regular accounts and feel a bit nutty so I am having some fun. Same thing I did in EJ last week. There is a cluster of weekly and daily levels around the 3180/3200 level so I am having a go at this with some size. I closed the first entry at the weekly high and the second is hanging on by pipettes. but this cluster will have my attention for a while if it doesn't turn down and head back to test 3150 soon I will take the four percent hit and be done.

Correction: that should read 3170/3200
  • #2,348
  • Apr 16, 2013 11:56am Apr 16, 2013 11:56am
Quoting Olarion1975
Chris, I see in your fxbook explorer that you opened quite a few EU shorts...for the last 3 or 4 trades I see no level around. What was the reason for the last trades? Btw, my ORB short trade was stopped out...as well as both trades yesterday...costs me about 1.5%...
It has not been an easy two days for the ORB but it happens. Four losers in a row is not unusual and I am sure five or more is possible. Lots of manipulation and choppiness right now. No trend is tough on the method.
  • #2,349
  • Apr 16, 2013 11:56am Apr 16, 2013 11:56am
Quoting Seneca pilot
They are weekly levels and truthfully I am goofing around. I got bored. I am flat in all my regular accounts and feel a bit nutty so I am having some fun. Same thing I did in EJ last week. There is a cluster of weekly and daily levels around the 3180/3200 level so I am having a go at this with some size. I closed the first entry at the weekly high and the second is hanging on by pipettes. but this cluster will have my attention for a while if it doesn't turn down and head back to test 3150 soon I will take the four percent hit and be done. Correction:...
Fair enough. Thanks for your straight answer!
  • #2,350
  • Apr 16, 2013 12:07pm Apr 16, 2013 12:07pm
Quoting Olarion1975
Fair enough. Thanks for your straight answer!
This is normally what I do with the test account. I don't have the discipline to sit in front of a computer for hours at a time without an outlet for my gambling side. Maybe I should link another account that I don't use for gambling type experimental trades. I am human and I like to use a tiny account to live out my human side. Trust me when I say that I am not doing this in a real account for more than one hundred dollars per pip. In those accounts the weekly entry was stopped out a long time ago and the short from this morning at the weekly open was my money maker. I may link another slightly larger account soon that I will not play in at all. I think that would be fair to everyone to see.
  • #2,351
  • Apr 16, 2013 12:07pm Apr 16, 2013 12:07pm
Hi SP & Others,

I noticed P/L are often quoted here as percentages. Please advise how you derive them for use on this thread.
I've seen different methods but won't mention them here (to avoid confusion on my part!).

Sorry if I missed it in a prior post.

Thanks.
TRADING. It isn't rocket surgery.
  • #2,352
  • Apr 16, 2013 12:15pm Apr 16, 2013 12:15pm
Quoting 4x.zombie
Hi SP & Others, I noticed P/L are often quoted here as percentages. Please advise how you derive them for use on this thread. I've seen different methods but won't mention them here (to avoid confusion on my part!). Sorry if I missed it in a prior post. Thanks.
I will quote in two ways. Either as a percentage of the account IE. thousand dollar account twenty dollar profit 2% gain, or as a multiple or risk on the trade. If I risk thirty pips and win forty five then I would say I got 1.5/1 or 1.5R.
  • #2,353
  • Apr 16, 2013 12:30pm Apr 16, 2013 12:30pm
Might as well talk about what I am doing here while I wait.

Remember I only do this as a test, this is gambling and should not be done with large accounts. Sometimes there will be big clusters of weekly/daily highs and lows in a smallish area. Usually this will be close to a round number and there will often be a Seiden supply/demand level around the area. That is the case with EU today. You never know exactly where the price will turn because there are so many levels in play and there is always attack and defense around these areas as they normally have some option activity in addition to the highs and lows. I will play around and add entries until I have the average price at or above the bottom of the range I want to play. I have on occasion gotten the location so good that I could take off the trade with a fifty or sixty point combined gain. In a small test account with the leverage up close to the max you can sometimes double or more the size of the account with one or two trades like this. Of course it is also easy to take a ten percent hit if you aren't careful. The point is that if I don't do something like this at least once a week I would go absolutely nuts waiting for price to come into a normal entry level for me. This is how I pass the time during the day. Goofing off.
  • #2,354
  • Apr 16, 2013 12:45pm Apr 16, 2013 12:45pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
Might as well talk about what I am doing here while I wait. Remember I only do this as a test, this is gambling and should not be done with large accounts. Sometimes there will be big clusters of weekly/daily highs and lows in a smallish area. Usually this will be close to a round number and there will often be a Seiden supply/demand level around the area. That is the case with EU today. You never know exactly where the price will turn because there are so many levels in play and there is always attack and defense around these areas as they normally...
I will also add that doing this in a play account is a great stress reliever and does teach pretty well how to get a feel for price momentum and sniffing out turning points. It helps in learning how to choose the levels you want to trade and picking the times you want to skip a level and wait for a retrace from the other side. If you look into the bars forming on the fifteen minute chart you can see that there is a definite pushing of price into the closes of the bars. I know that people say that time doesn't matter and that the bars on a fifteen minute chart are random but the construction of the bars is important to me. I often exit when I see bars that push hard into the close with no wicks at the end. This often, to me signals exhaustion and a last ditch effort to move price into a level. If this happens to me in the direction of a trade that I am in I often exit, especially if the bar is a close on an hour. This is the discretion factor that is so hard to teach and that I don't really go into because of the various levels of experience of the readers of the thread. I am scared that someone might get the idea that this is how I trade and it couldn't be further from the truth. I am a scaredy cat when it comes to risk and I rarely put more than one percent of my hard earned money into any trade. Please in this instance do what I say not what I do. This is a play account. Three hundred dollars won't even buy a nice dinner and night out. Don't risk your money on these types of things trade the proven stuff.
  • #2,355
  • Apr 16, 2013 12:47pm Apr 16, 2013 12:47pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
Might as well talk about what I am doing here while I wait. Remember I only do this as a test, this is gambling and should not be done with large accounts. Sometimes there will be big clusters of weekly/daily highs and lows in a smallish area. Usually this will be close to a round number and there will often be a Seiden supply/demand level around the area. That is the case with EU today. You never know exactly where the price will turn because there are so many levels in play and there is always attack and defense around these areas as they normally...
the cluster of weekly levels you wanted were at the other end of the move I reckon, weekly kinda did your ORB thing, retested the s/r yesterday and weekly long trend has continued today... looks like eu was looking for that level the last few days and found it this morning

EDIT... all said in hindsight, I can't talk or i would still be long the euro myself...

EU WEEKLY
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tradewith60
  • #2,356
  • Apr 16, 2013 12:49pm Apr 16, 2013 12:49pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
Might as well talk about what I am doing here while I wait. Remember I only do this as a test, this is gambling and should not be done with large accounts. Sometimes there will be big clusters of weekly/daily highs and lows in a smallish area. Usually this will be close to a round number and there will often be a Seiden supply/demand level around the area. That is the case with EU today. You never know exactly where the price will turn because there are so many levels in play and there is always attack and defense around these areas as they normally...
So consequently this makes the trade explorer/my fx you link to in post 1 irrelevant to the methods you trade on a live account.....that's a shame.
  • #2,357
  • Apr 16, 2013 12:56pm Apr 16, 2013 12:56pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
I will quote in two ways. Either as a percentage of the account IE. thousand dollar account twenty dollar profit 2% gain, or as a multiple or risk on the trade. If I risk thirty pips and win forty five then I would say I got 1.5/1 or 1.5R.
Thanks SP. I appreciate your fast reply.

Re your example: >>>thousand dollar account twenty dollar profit = 2% gain<<<

Looks like you use/quote absolute returns so the same trade can yield different percentages based on size.
I like absolute returns because that is the real acid test and is used in the big leagues.

IE $1,000 account, twenty dollar profit PER LOT, x 2 LOTS = 4% gain?
(Larger size on the same account balance yields larger P/L %)

Your quick yes or no would be great. Beyond that I'll drop it here. No sense getting too anal.
TRADING. It isn't rocket surgery.
  • #2,358
  • Apr 16, 2013 1:10pm Apr 16, 2013 1:10pm
SP,

It's very nice to get some real time Q&A with you. This is my last Q for now. You must be super busy.

You wrote: >>>I will play around and add entries until I have the average price at or above the bottom of the range I want to play.<<<

You are a rebel!!! That constitutes "averaging down" which is always cited as one of the cardinal sins! However, you make it work for you by wisely using possy size (leverage) so the ultimate risk AFTER you've achieved your desired price is within your risk parameter.

That is the old order desk pitch (buy side example), "If you liked it at $X, you'll love it at $X minus Y...how many you want?"

********************
The human/gambling thing: I switched to alcohol and have a lot more fun.
TRADING. It isn't rocket surgery.
  • #2,359
  • Apr 16, 2013 1:11pm Apr 16, 2013 1:11pm
Quoting 60minuteman
the cluster of weekly levels you wanted were at the other end of the move I reckon, weekly kinda did your ORB thing, retested the s/r yesterday and weekly long trend has continued today... looks like eu was looking for that level the last few days and found it this morning EDIT... all said in hindsight, I can't talk or i would still be long the euro myself... EU WEEKLY {image}
I can be as wrong as the next guy. 1.32 is a very big area of highs and lows going back for years. We are also in the area of the mid of the last down move on the weekly timeframe. There is a lot of stuff happening here and I am really having a go for some excitement. If I am wrong I will take it like a man.
  • #2,360
  • Apr 16, 2013 1:17pm Apr 16, 2013 1:17pm
Quoting 4x.zombie
SP, It's very nice to get some real time Q&A with you. This is my last Q for now. You must be super busy. You wrote: >>>I will play around and add entries until I have the average price at or above the bottom of the range I want to play.<<< You are a rebel!!! That constitutes "averaging down" which is always cited as one of the cardinal sins! However, you make it work for you by wisely using possy size (leverage) so the ultimate risk AFTER you've achieved your desired price is within your risk parameter. That is the old order desk pitch (buy side...
Let me restate it again. This is only a test account. I would NEVER do this with my actual real money. This is dinner and a movie money and not the same thing as trading.

I do not average down in real life. I do not teach that anyone should average down in real life. I would not be able to sleep at night if I averaged down in real life. As it stands right now if this thing does not retrace I will take a six or seven percent hit. Not unrecoverable but absolutely unacceptable in only one series of trades if this were my real account.

Gambling is much more fun to me than alcohol, I like to remember my transgressions. You should see me play poker.
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