Andrews Pitchfork (Median Line)

In the examples above, I used a pitchfork which was "equal" and opposite. However, I also conclude that one could exist which is opposite but not equal. Uncovering it's derivation is the challenge.

How would you have gone about predicting pt3 for the fork in this daily EUR/USD chart?

Not to my knowledge, but haven't searched for one in years. All the original ones have gone the way of paid services.

The problem with most of the content here, what's shown is all in retrospect, little on actual trading a fork. The lack of this type of response is understandable, most of your better dialog will come in a private setting, most of the original forums like Morges for example, all started with a small group, email list for relies.

The small group setting is more open for sharing, specially with like minded forkers

Here's an idea I emailed to Tim Morge a year ago. As far as I know, there has been nothing published on the interaction between pitchfork anchor points and Fibonacci retracement levels.

This idea came after testing the many ways that Dr. Andrews and other traders have placed the first anchor, trying to make pitchforks more relevant. My goal was to improve consistency and reduce guesswork. I also wondered if it was possible to map trends that offer no practical location for the first anchor, for example a trend moving into new territory. What developed, I call a Fibofork, only to differentiate it:

1. Decide which two points will become anchors 2 and 3 of your Fibofork. (counting 1,2,3 from left to right.)
2. Create a trend line from anchor 2 to anchor 3. (Skip this step if you want to create all forks by hand.)
3. Draw a Fibo Retracement vertically from the price _level_ of the anchor 3 to the exact location of anchor 2. This makes anchor 2 the 100% point of the Retracement.
4. The fun part: use the 0%, 24% and 38% points on the Retracement's vertical line as the first anchor points of three different Andrews pitchforks.

That's it. Steps 3 and 4 can take time, so I just draw the trendline, then drag and drop a script onto the chart. The script does the hard work.

For reference, I attached a screenshot of EURUSD from Thursday and Friday (2012), with 6-pip range bars. I call the Lime green fork (that starts from the Fibo 38 level) the "38 fork". The Blue is the "24 fork", and the Dark Gray the "Zero fork". Friday's action was pretty well mapped out by the end of Thursday's NY session. (Green box is NY from noon to 5 pm.)

The green 38 fork draws three median lines, plus one warning line. The blue 24 fork draws only two median lines, plus the warning line. The gray Zero fork draws only one outer median line and a warning line. After testing, these seem to be the most relevant to price action, and reduce clutter a bit.

To try this yourself, copy the eight scripts into your Experts/scripts directory. Restart Metatrader. (I add them to my Favorites tab on the Navigator window, since I use them a lot.) The scripts titled 1,2,3,4 each draw a Fibofork, so you can have a maximum of four on the chart. To use them, edit the name of the trendline to 1, 2, 3, or 4. Then drag the script with the same number onto the chart. The scripts titled d1, d2, d3, d4 each delete their corresponding Fibofork.

Observations:

1. In general, 6 and 8-pip range bar charts can give spectacular results, but the technique works on standard time-based charts also: 1HR, 15 minute, etc. Time-based charts can require a different anchor #2 placement, for example if price makes a noticeable double top or bottom within one time period.

2. Within sensible limits, the more recent and shorter a good-looking trend segment is, the more useful the map of the price action will be. The left hand screenshot shows this for the green 38 fork, but notice how the 24 and Zero median lines of the right hand chart offer different insight, and gave a possible early entry. Draw a Fibofork across the entire trend, and compare that fork to one drawn across the last major leg of the trend.

3. Depending on longer-term price action, all median lines will not be relevant, but price will quickly react off of some of them. As in the left hand chart, it's common to see that the first price movement (off of anchor 3) follows the Zero fork. Price then breaks to the 24 fork, hits support/resistance there and then tracks the 24 median line. Finally, it breaks to the outer median line of the 38 fork and bounces, giving a good entry. This happens often enough that you might consider it a confirmation signal. Very fast trends can follow the channel created by the Zero median lines. Somewhat slower trends can follow the 24 fork for much of their life, or bounce between 24 and Zero median lines.

4. Eventually, most trends resolve into 38 forks. If price action allows a traditional Andrews pitchfork to be drawn, extending the main median line of the 38 fork backwards in time often shows that the Andrews and Fiboforks are identical, as if one is confirming the other.

5. You can also draw one fork off of the last _big_ uptrend leg, and another off the last _big_ downleg, then do the same for two smaller recent up and down trends. If you can stand the clutter, price will react off of that grid of median lines. My interest is daytrading, so even larger forks rarely span more than a week of data - a one to three day span is more common for me.

6. There can be a bit of art involved in placing anchor 2 if there are big swings in that area. As a rule, the later point often works best. Still, if there are two reasonable choices, either will generate useful median lines. Same goes for anchor 3. If there is a failed double top/bottom, the Fibofork will usually work best off of the later choice. I follow Tim Morge's advice, and experiment with the endpoints of the trendline if there is ambiguity.

8. This may have more to do with the inherent symmetry of trendlines than it does with pitchforks per se, but price usually dithers around the midpoint of the trendline used to set anchors 2 and 3. If you see the dither happening in real time, project a trendline from anchor 2, twice the measured length to the dither, it's possible to draw a tentative Fibofork in advance, in territory where traditional forks can't be drawn. At a minimum, it's a rough range estimating tool for the current trend. (Whew! Think of George Marechal's forecasts, and what he knew 80 years ago!)

9. Fiboforks seem to work on any time frame. I've found that drawing them with 2-pip range bars gives a detailed picture, but one that can move fast. Tim Morge has mentioned 8-pip bars for his analysis, so that's probably as good a recommendation as there is.

Credit where credit is due: my range bar indi is from Artur Zas - user Nix on Forex Factory - www.az-invest.eu. He also programmed the scripts to my spec, and I did some tweaking from there. (BTW, I have no financial connection with his business. I'm a happy customer only.) If you want to try some of the freeware range bar indis that are floating around, go for it, but YMMV.

Well, there it is. Hopefully someone will find this useful. Thanks for your time!

If anyone is interested in a skype room it is still open go under the about me section on my profile.

I believe Mr.Morge is not active here anymore, can anyone please illustrate a good & a bad separation with an image please?

just coz the close is well above the up sloping line it is a sign of buyers in control, right? can anyone please clear it up for me?

Thank you.

HOURLY EUR/USD

It would surprise me if price continues its path and target the energy point dead ahead.

HOURLY USD/JPY

Sometimes it works to perfection....other times...not so much.

I believe that price is attracted to certain points for every well-drawn pitchfork due to valid reasons. The most plausible reason I've come across thus far is Tim Morge's concept of energy points (intersecting lines of opposing force). However, it is invalid most of the time..

Discovering a consistent and constant concept for this would indeed be the holy grail.

I don't think I'll ever fully understand how to trade this method.

For every upwards fork that is drawn, a bearish fork can also be drawn, only to cast doubt in my mind about what I should do.

You are quite close to being on track. The whole point is to draw both a bullish and bearish fork. That is the way. If you add to your chart an upsloping Catalin fork (A and C are equal in price) you might gain more insight on this chart. Also if your forks have quartiles, and warning lines you get more information.

If you want to get it you will. If you think you never will, you won't.

(New charting software fellow forkers!)

An energy point lies below current price. If it is targeted, expect a strong move during the NY session. If not, the upper quartile might still cause price to drift to the downside and find some kind of support there. If not a show of strong support, then enough to cause price to spend some time around it until it makes its next move.

To what chart are you referring to?

His Yen chart.

USDJPY
http://screencast.com/t/leZhJgIh3

Does anyone subscribe to tims website? Is it worth the money

Does anyone subscribe to tims website? Is it worth the money

Definitely!
Tim and his team are fantastic educators, there is so much material to go over in the archive videos. On the site you are taught the language of price. How each bar tells a story, what is market structure and how to use it.

Kalabilla, do you know if Morge has started his ‘Begin Your Mornings with the Master’ and "Spend Your Evening with the Master" webcasts?

Kapital, what new software is that?

lol n/m

Tim Morge is on record as saying that he has never heard of the Older Method (ORE Method) after spending years studying with Dr. Andrews and even goes so far to say that the guy who says it exists (Ron Janeisch) is a scammer. Well, in the video below, Janeisch shows one of Dr. Alan Andrew's newsletters (March 1974) in which the method is mentioned.

Now, since Janeisch gives the date of the newsletter, Morge or anyone with access to the newsletters should be able to find out whether or not Janeish's claim is true or not and put an end to this controversy once and for all.

youtube.com/watch?v=Au3cI7E0-3M