NZD/USD

as is said stop is moved to global Breakeven so this is 8 free trades except for swap.

At this level for nzd/usd i I prefer to risk lossing hundred of pips profits rather than miss the eventual fall.

April 2011 sticks in my head

An overvalued currency! The graph represents the New Zealand Dollar Trade Weighted version http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trade_W...nge_Rate_Index.
The Kiwi is almost 30% away from the historical average of 61.8, but above all, it is above further the two standard deviations of the average itself; this is quite a rare event, but when it happens, it always represents a great opportunity of trading on the New Zealand Dollar. But not only that! The trend line that connects the top of the Kiwi in 1997 and 2007 is ranked at 81.25 (2% higher from current levels); at this point, the rise 2000-2007 is exactly the same of the current one, started in 2009. Going short of Nzd is not a bad idea ...

Thanks Matrix! That article has made it much clearer now!

Nice information sharing here on FF.

Thanks!

It looks like many of you are shorting the kiwi right now ; what does make you think that we 've reached the top ? It broke its previous high and may continue rising to the .89 area... boj is printing a lot of money and we could see large inflow of money from japan as people looking for yield may borrow the cheap yen to buy the kiwi and the AUD...

I've seen that same thing on the internet before, too. But like with everything else, there's always two sides to a story. Gann and his son had a fall out. So, whenever I read anything that came from his son, I have to take with a grain of salt.

I would assume its destined to go down already

I'm still bullish until I see price sit below 84.8 for a day or two. Technically and historically price should turn around from here and plummet but fundamentally there aren't the same external factors affecting the pair. If anything the RBNZ may up rates and the US may keep QE3 till year end. Unless some really negative news comes out about NZ or the US gets stellar data consistently over the next week or so I don't see a definite huge reversal.

This is from someone that bet the farm around the last RBNZ OCR announcement and got burnt bad when things turned around didn't bottom out like expected. Clung to losing trades from 82 levels to 84.5 waiting for reversals and topping up to keep things ticking. Funnily enough I reclaimed about half my losses switching to long from 85.3 to 86.8. just waiting to see how the morning in NZ kicks things off before considering reentering.

Clear divergences on the Macd. I think the downside is only a matter of days, and this is also confirmed by the weakness of AudUsd on Friday.

Most times price turns around even if fundamentals are positive.Most times once price hits certain key level only movement becomes opposite.
Exception Yen which is unique situation.
On weekly chart price never stayed peek tops more then a week.Furthermore fundamentals are important but not necessarily true factors why currency moves in way it does.

I've been looking at the weekly chart with that exact same idea for some time now.

I figure its specs that are heavy short but if real money comes into nzd in large volumes and stops out the shorts, it could head north in quite a hurry. Not sure I want to get caught out hard again.

Think I'm ok to miss the first 100 pips of movement to not be on the wrong side of the fence.

I do hope it heads to 89 though as that would be a fun short to sit on fully loaded.

First short for the week.

HIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII BEAR club members
bad Chinese data! Yes Sir over 300pips in profit but will not close single order until 83

Hi Davit, I'm thinking .8350 area for me with TPs on the way down.
Cheers.

Come on drop lower, drop lower, i wana load longs again, i wana long around 0.8350 and enjoy the positive swaps once more....
had a good long right from 0.8250 to 0.8400, now i need it to go down to long again, be not mistakened ... weekly and monthly still in an uptrend.... today's just a blip

Its a reasonable TP 8350 is exactly 618 fib and logical and may do the same

wow.... looking at your chart....
not my style of trading... how many hours a day do you look at ur charts?

fxtyrant
you are on my ignore list.

Is a trap for bulls going to spring?? Below 0.8470 sell Kiwi.

Will be looking at long opportunities if retracement continues now that 78.6 is blown: