Predicting FX weekly moves from news events

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Caveat: This is NOT a signal service, but a journal of sorts to document predictive analysis from calendar event numbers.

I created a more powerful FX News app and within the calendar there's a column to analyse the difference between forecast and previous numbers; i can then sort this column by clicking the column which allows me to create an event heat-map for the week.

Currently, i'm having to do this in excel as i've yet to code this heat-map pending its validity. I will document results for the next few weeks to see how the market moves based on my analysis.

I will post analysis on sunday and will state which pair will move and in which direction....before it happens.

Calendar tool

http://i.imgur.com/wwboWBq.png

Analytical methodology

I've created a blank template in excel and then populate each column for the pairs event, so from the current events table, we can see that GBP is the first event with a medium impact and is colour-coded red in the difference column (Actual < Forecast = Good for currency). So for the 21st, i would insert -2 blocks.

Next event is USD unemployment claims on 21st and is high impact with a red difference column, so i would insert -3 blocks, etc...

Here's the legend:

http://i.imgur.com/GXq1hmt.png

The prediction

I then tally each symbols block count and sort the symbol column (top left) to show the strongest and weakest pair(s) for the week.

At the end of the week, i use this tool to write down the four biggest movers for both bid/offer, to see if they correlate.

Previous results: 25th feb -1st march

The prediction was to buy CADCHF as CAD is the highest with 2 and CHF the lowest with -8

The result: CADCHF ranked #2 of the biggest movers for the week.

http://i.imgur.com/vWzqFAc.png

Previous results: 4th march -8th march

The prediction was to sell USDJPY as JPY is the highest with 7 and USD the lowest with -14

The result: USDJPY ranked #4 of the biggest buyers for the week.

This went completely against the forecast, as USDJPY ripped north when all the news said it should sink south!

http://i.imgur.com/Na62OPq.png

Previous results: 11th march -15th march

The prediction was to sell USDCAD as CAD is the highest with 3 and USD the lowest with -6

The result: USDCAD ranked #4 of the biggest sellers for the week.

http://i.imgur.com/RS592Qo.png

PREDICTION for week: 11th march -15th march

The prediction is to buy CADJPY as CAD is the highest with 11 and JPY the lowest with -3

The result:

http://i.imgur.com/JWLUotp.png

Edit:

Note the huge green blocks on EUR, so EURJPY is bid, but with the Cyprus stuff over the weekend, let's see what happens; if you trade the news, this big gap down on EURJPY before the market opens in a few hours is a buyers wet dream - however, buyer beware.

So much positive news for EUR this week, could this big gap down to 1.29236 be a huge stop hunt?

What about this just in:

link

http://i.imgur.com/4IyRQnT.png

Possible support pickup for EURUSD @ 1.28254 - 1.28209

EURUSD - Daily

http://i.imgur.com/nlNIDBf.gif

Results for 18th - 22nd march from this post (nb: i copied the dates incorrectly)


RESULT:

This went completely against the forecast, as CADJPY and EURJPY were amongst the four biggest losers of the week! Again, notice the huge block of positive green news on thursday 21st for the EUR column, which should have bid up the euro, but Cyprus stuff added negative noise and as i write this, they are still deliberating into sunday on what will happen to Cyprus.

It's interesting to note a theme, as another news predictions went the other way and the common denominator was the yen; JPY doesn't like playing ball with news!

PREDICTION for week: 25th - 29th march

Sell USDCAD: CAD is the highest with 7 and USD the lowest with -5

RESULT for week: 25th - 29th march


Result:

Forecast was correct - USDCAD did sell off, but only managed -600pips; biggest movers were influenced by swiss strength. Largest mover of the week was EURUSD with a -1874 pip sell from week open to week close, this is interesting since the dollar had the weakest news prediction for the week (-5 blocks), but the euro was comparatively much weaker with Cyprus stuff still spooking the markets.

PREDICTION for week: 1st - 5th april

Sell EURJPY: JPY is the highest with 4 and EUR the lowest with -14

RESULT for week: 1st - 5th april

Quote
Sell EURJPY: JPY is the highest with 4 and EUR the lowest with -14

Result:

Forecast was wrong - EURJPY did sell off at the start of the week for -1,500 pipettes, but BoJ injected a shit-storm of liquidity into the market mid-week. Any pair with JPY as their quote currency were lifted to the moon as can be seen by the highest four movers (top-left green box pairs), GBPJPY making a massive up move (short squeeze!).

Conversely, we can see that the swiss franc was the safe haven buy for the week as AUDCHF, USDCHF, CADCHF, GBPCHF were all the biggest sellers for the week.

So if CHF strength was hedged against the yen, you'd expect CHFJPY to be the biggest up mover for the week, but it only ranked 3rd, so the pound and euro have bid up against all macro fundamentals...hmmm. Remember that on July 1, 2013 Mark Carney will take over the BoE! Looks like they're setting some monster break-out buy traps for the next few months as UK has huge debts and it's a race to debase amongst sovereign states with their own printing press.

.

PREDICTION for week: 8th - 12th april

Buy EURAUD: EUR is the highest with 8 and AUD the lowest with -3

The Euro will hit .69 ....

RESULT for week: week: 8th - 12th april

Result:

Forecast was wrong - EURAUD sold off in a down channel all week but spiked up hours before market closed friday; EURAUD closed ~315 pipettes down from its week open.

PREDICTION for week: 15th - 19th april

Sell USDJPY: JPY is the highest with 4 and USD the lowest with -7

RESULT for week: 15th - 19th april

Quote
Sell USDJPY: JPY is the highest with 4 and USD the lowest with -7

Result:

Forecast was wrong - USDJPY did sell off monday, down ~2,500 pipettes from sunday open, but then rallied all week to close 1,313 pipettes up from week open.

NOTE: EURAUD rallied hard as predicted here.

PREDICTION for week: 22nd - 26th april

Buy USDCHF: USD is the highest with 13 and CHF the lowest with -3

RESULT for week: 22nd - 26th april

Quote
Buy USDCHF: USD is the highest with 13 and CHF the lowest with -3

Result:

Forecast was correct - USDCHF closed 882 pipettes above previous weekly candle close, not strong momentum but it was a buy sentiment.

NOTE: USDJPY did sell off (4th of the biggest sellers for the week) as predicted here.



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