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Ramblings of a Forex Junkie

  • #2,301
  • Apr 12, 2013 7:16am Apr 12, 2013 7:16am
Quoting Seneca pilot
I had a great week and I hope all of you did the same. I had lots of missed opportunities and bad exits but came out nicely ahead anyway. Everyone enjoy your weekend. I have sold my old house and now have to spend the weekend cleaning out the last of our stuff and touching up the paint. I am sure most of you will have better things to do on a beautiful spring weekend. Hit a golf ball for me.
Congratulation!
  • #2,302
  • Apr 12, 2013 7:18am Apr 12, 2013 7:18am
Quoting Olarion1975
That's great. Spring comes nearer now in Germany, snow is almost away. Awaiting 20°C on Monday... Just a screenshot from my last level trade...long on EU from the previous week's high. Exit on the mid of the down move (50% fib). Have a nice weekend. {image}
I missed that long. I had been in front of the computer for the news and taken a BE exit on a breakout trade that you know about. I had to go to change one of my son's diapers and came back to see the trade had triggered and run away from me. In the future I am attempting to use pending orders more. I am accustomed to being there and hitting the button. I get some satisfaction from manually entering trades. Just another sickness to overcome.
  • #2,303
  • Apr 12, 2013 7:26am Apr 12, 2013 7:26am
Not more than one percent risked on any trade this week.

https://www.myfxbook.com/portfolio/mh60l/522675
  • #2,304
  • Apr 12, 2013 7:50am Apr 12, 2013 7:50am
Quoting Seneca pilot
Not more than one percent risked on any trade this week. https://www.myfxbook.com/portfolio/mh60l/522675
That's an awesome result! Congrats!
So you played the breakout trade with EU this time, not GJ?
  • #2,305
  • Apr 12, 2013 7:54am Apr 12, 2013 7:54am
Quoting Olarion1975
That's an awesome result! Congrats! So you played the breakout trade with EU this time, not GJ?
I take the pair at the extreme.
  • #2,306
  • Apr 12, 2013 10:56am Apr 12, 2013 10:56am
I see the NFP trade rules would have worked well today on the US Retail Sales reports. Expectations were missed by a long shot. After the break and retest it went up more than 30 pips.
  • #2,307
  • Apr 12, 2013 7:33pm Apr 12, 2013 7:33pm
I've been lurking for a while. I just wanted to say nice thread SP, and Thanks for all the great posts!
  • #2,308
  • Apr 12, 2013 8:32pm Apr 12, 2013 8:32pm
Quoting muneeflo
I've been lurking for a while. I just wanted to say nice thread SP, and Thanks for all the great posts!
Thanks for stopping by.
  • #2,309
  • Apr 12, 2013 11:52pm Apr 12, 2013 11:52pm
Totally agree with your thinking and your style of trading, Seneca. I'll continue reading more of your thread but we trade almost the same way.

Keep writing bro.
  • #2,310
  • Apr 13, 2013 1:24am Apr 13, 2013 1:24am
Quoting Seneca pilot
Not more than one percent risked on any trade this week. https://www.myfxbook.com/portfolio/mh60l/522675
hello,

ive noticed that several times so far....when i try to use the link to myfxbook it doesnt show anythnig...telling me that i cant acces someone else portfolio
is this a general problem or i need to have some kind of permission from you to see it ?

thanks in advance
  • #2,311
  • Apr 13, 2013 1:40am Apr 13, 2013 1:40am
Quoting bradu
hello, ive noticed that several times so far....when i try to use the link to myfxbook it doesnt show anythnig...telling me that i cant acces someone else portfolio is this a general problem or i need to have some kind of permission from you to see it ? thanks in advance
Use this: http://www.myfxbook.com/members/MH60L/mh60l/522675
  • #2,312
  • Apr 13, 2013 2:36am Apr 13, 2013 2:36am
Quoting kk007
Use this: http://www.myfxbook.com/members/MH60L/mh60l/522675
it is working
thanks for helping me

so...this is the test myfxbook for SN ...right ?
  • #2,313
  • Apr 13, 2013 4:29pm Apr 13, 2013 4:29pm
Hello Senaca,
first thanks for the thread, very good.
I have been a bit of a lurker on here mainly because my entries are a bit different to yours and i don't want to distract your thread. however I am a big fan of using ORB's and also open/close lines over high/lows so have been checking in regularly to see what you are doing.
I just wondered if you would discuss a bit more on your approach to exits. In my opinion entries determine losses but exits determine profits, I have my entries good and in a place where I am happy , but I still struggle with that balance between keeping entries tight and letting trades run. I am a bit greedy in that I hate to see a positive trade go negative but still if a trade is going to go to 100 it annoys me when i have taken 20 even if I only had a 10 pip stop. It is a fine balance but everyone wants to maximise thier profitability, or maybe I am just greedy.
Any input you would like to give would be much appreciated
Regards
lille Bror
  • #2,314
  • Apr 13, 2013 6:24pm Apr 13, 2013 6:24pm
Quoting lille bror
Hello Senaca, first thanks for the thread, very good. I have been a bit of a lurker on here mainly because my entries are a bit different to yours and i don't want to distract your thread. however I am a big fan of using ORB's and also open/close lines over high/lows so have been checking in regularly to see what you are doing. I just wondered if you would discuss a bit more on your approach to exits. In my opinion entries determine losses but exits determine profits, I have my entries good and in a place where I am happy , but I still struggle...
I have many of the same problems. I am normally looking to exit between thirty and eighty pips. I like to hold at least to a level that would be one of my entries but I will take profit at a place where price stalls too. I have said many times on this thread I am not a good trade manager. If I was good at managing trades I would have made twenty percent this week as I had some really good entries. I bought the previous week low on April 4. That was the low of this current bull move. I took profit at 27 pips and the move has been 350+ so don't necessarily rely on me to tell you when to get out. Seriously though I am still a day trader and I have lots of historical data that tells me that I am statistically correct to be looking for the exits somewhere around thirty or forty pips unless the move is really strong. It is best to get a good R/R on our trades and never look in the rear view mirror because the vision is always clearer after a little time has passed and you will only torture yourself if you worry about what could have been. Now if you are constantly killing your trades at BE (I still get into this bad habit occasionally) then you have to work on trusting your method and entries because you can go broke protecting your capital too much.
  • #2,315
  • Apr 13, 2013 8:18pm Apr 13, 2013 8:18pm
Dear SP,

Thank you for an excellent thread. I love your "no bullshit" info and teaching style.
I've spent the last week page by page and noting your important lessons and examples.

My kidney's hurt from too much jitter juice (the coffee I make), but it has been worth every shooting pain.

I can do a bit of coding so please let me know if I can help in any way.

4xz
TRADING. It isn't rocket surgery.
  • #2,316
  • Apr 13, 2013 10:23pm Apr 13, 2013 10:23pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
I have said many times on this thread I am not a good trade manager.
Assuming you have been performing consistently, if you are not a good trade manager, who else? How many trade manager can make 20% + a month on earth?

Quoting Seneca pilot
If I was good at managing trades I would have made twenty percent this week as I had some really good entries. I bought the previous week low on April 4. That was the low of this current bull move. I took profit at 27 pips and the move has been 350+ so don't necessarily rely on me to tell you when to get out.
This is a mode of thinking based on hindsight, and who has the ability to forecast something not yet happened? Often, if you don't take a +1R or +2R winner, you may end up with a -1R loser.

Quoting Seneca pilot
Seriously though I am still a day trader and I have lots of historical data that tells me that I am statistically correct to be looking for the exits somewhere around thirty or forty pips unless the move is really strong.
That is what is important, you act based on statistic of backtesting, not the end result of each setup.
  • #2,317
  • Apr 14, 2013 3:15pm Apr 14, 2013 3:15pm
I have always maintained that exits are harder technically and psychologically to get right, and they are more important...

but I know this is a touchy subject and the two sides have equally logical reasons for their opinion being the correct one..

But if you had to take a stab at a good place to exit, considering your entries are off daily s/r levels (not including your breakout trade) then a daily s/r level should be the place to also exit... mark the next daily s/r, if m15 closes over it, hold for the next daily.... etc etc Obviously you would want to take into account if your trade is trend or counter also....

just a thought...
tradewith60
  • #2,318
  • Apr 14, 2013 3:36pm Apr 14, 2013 3:36pm
Regarding exits:

Years ago I read a guru's article (maybe Larry Williams) about TP targets vs trailing stops. He maintained that short term traders that trade to targets net better results than using trailing stops. As mentioned above, these volatile markets can easily turn a winner into a loser. I favor targets for that reason and to avoid "over night risk" and "news risk" that can spawn a 200+ adverse move.
TRADING. It isn't rocket surgery.
  • #2,319
  • Apr 14, 2013 4:27pm Apr 14, 2013 4:27pm
Quoting 4x.zombie
Regarding exits: Years ago I read a guru's article (maybe Larry Williams) about TP targets vs trailing stops. He maintained that short term traders that trade to targets net better results than using trailing stops. As mentioned above, these volatile markets can easily turn a winner into a loser. I favor targets for that reason and to avoid "over night risk" and "news risk" that can spawn a 200+ adverse move.
yeah It seems a lot of seasoned traders end up down the tp or sl only solution... I guess if your risk model adds up then why not take yourself out of the equation, I for one make more bad decisions than my plan does
tradewith60
  • #2,320
  • Apr 14, 2013 5:43pm Apr 14, 2013 5:43pm
Quoting 4x.zombie
Regarding exits: Years ago I read a guru's article (maybe Larry Williams) about TP targets vs trailing stops. He maintained that short term traders that trade to targets net better results than using trailing stops. As mentioned above, these volatile markets can easily turn a winner into a loser. I favor targets for that reason and to avoid "over night risk" and "news risk" that can spawn a 200+ adverse move.
One hundred percent correct. I never trail intraday trades. I also rarely piece out of them either. I can't remember the author but I read a paper a few years ago that proved to me that holding the entire trade to exit was better expectancy than taking off a piece and trailing the rest. The currency market can turn on a dime and I want my change.

I also often don't get my TP. I usually set a very optimistic TP in hopes that I will catch a quick move but my real target is often smaller.
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