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Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

  • #5,321
  • Apr 12, 2013 5:00am Apr 12, 2013 5:00am
The level of 152.30 has been support/resistance previously, if it breaks and closes above it has a high chance of move up again, is currently testing this level.

"If you want to succeed as much as you want to breath, you'll be successful"

Fx 35
  • #5,322
  • Apr 12, 2013 5:28am Apr 12, 2013 5:28am
Quoting GDR3k
Target moved to 154.645 just under where I anticipate a bounce back down [highlighted green], as price hasn't been back at this area since the downmove on 25th August 2009. Its safe to say I'll have a sell order waiting there too. Which ironically is just under a daily resistance pivot in the 154.70 area. I think we could be in for a wild ride today. Now all I need is for 152 to hold. {image} {image}
Just something to consider. There have been many resistance levels on the way up from 129 that GJ either pushed through with brute force, or quietly gapped above. The most recent gap over 150 was one such example.

154.6~7 represents major resistance, being the cross over point for a channel, a fib TL coming out of 216 and the top TL of the current move.

IF price were to reach it within the next 12 hours or so (just before market close), that price point may be a very good candidate for yet another gap. I'm not predicting, just saying a preset sell at that point should be viewed with a little caution.

A move over that point would take us up fairly quickly with little resistance to 163 and 165x for a probable top.
  • #5,323
  • Apr 12, 2013 5:40am Apr 12, 2013 5:40am
Quoting Mpt
Just something to consider. There have been many resistance levels on the way up from 129 that GJ either pushed through with brute force, or quietly gapped above. The most recent gap over 150 was one such example. 154.6~7 represents major resistance, being the cross over point for a channel, a fib TL coming out of 216 and the top TL of the current move. IF price were to reach it within the next 12 hours or so (just before market close), that price point may be a very good candidate for yet another gap. I'm not predicting, just saying a preset sell...
Cheers, the sell order would only be a scalp, I wouldn't be looking to go short at that area until Monday as I don't like holding positions over a weekend.



Stop has been moved to break even on the long from 152.034, currently +38.
  • #5,324
  • Apr 12, 2013 5:52am Apr 12, 2013 5:52am
Quoting GDR3k
Cheers, the sell order would only be a scalp, I wouldn't be looking to go short at that area until Monday as I don't like holding positions over a weekend. Stop has been moved to break even on the long from 152.034, currently +38.
I agree with you, I scalped the market short and exit with +60 pips and reversed the position

"If you want to succeed as much as you want to breath, you'll be successful"

FX 35
  • #5,325
  • Apr 12, 2013 5:56am Apr 12, 2013 5:56am
Seems theres still a lot of bulls out there, im gonna short the beast on m15 200ma for a quick scalp
  • #5,326
  • Edited 6:24am Apr 12, 2013 6:09am | Edited 6:24am
Interesting 4H TL here and the same TL on the 15m.

15m (1H) price just closed at 152.58 a touch above the TL and 15m mid channel line. A 4H close (in 50 minutes) above the TL would be nice.

EDIT: I should add that it also bounced off the 1H 50ma (blue) as a resistance as well. My short line in the sand still remains a solid (1H or 4H) close below the 76.4% at 152.15. Added 1H chart.
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Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #5,327
  • Apr 12, 2013 6:11am Apr 12, 2013 6:11am
Quoting albchr
Interesting 4H TL here and the same TL on the 15m. 15m price just closed at 152.58 a touch above the TL and 15m mid channel line. A 4H close (in 50 minutes) above the TL would be nice. {image} {image}
Is your broker +1 GMT?
  • #5,328
  • Apr 12, 2013 6:14am Apr 12, 2013 6:14am
Quoting tafy68
Seems theres still a lot of bulls out there, im gonna short the beast on m15 200ma for a quick scalp
Yeah, the 15 200 is right on the previous TL. It may be be tough to break.
  • #5,329
  • Apr 12, 2013 6:14am Apr 12, 2013 6:14am
Quoting GDR3k
Is your broker +1 GMT?
GMT -5 EST

Why?
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #5,330
  • Apr 12, 2013 6:17am Apr 12, 2013 6:17am
Quoting albchr
GMT -5 EST Why?
Ah, just you said your next 4hr candle closes in 50 minutes which would make that 1pm my time, my next 4hr candle closes at 2pm my time and my broker is +2 GMT.

I'm bored
  • #5,331
  • Apr 12, 2013 6:22am Apr 12, 2013 6:22am
Quoting GDR3k
Ah, just you said your next 4hr candle closes in 50 minutes which would make that 1pm my time, my next 4hr candle closes at 2pm my time and my broker is +2 GMT. I'm bored
LOL...gotcha! That's why price action and horizontal SR are still the best way to go for me. Not that candles don't matter but there are too many variables in candle formations depending on time zones.

I edited my chart post with a couple thoughts I forgot. First cup of coffee and all.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #5,332
  • Edited 6:45am Apr 12, 2013 6:31am | Edited 6:45am
Quoting albchr
LOL...gotcha! That's why price action and horizontal SR are still the best way to go for me. Not that candles don't matter but there are too many variables in candle formations depending on time zones. I edited my chart post with a couple thoughts I forgot. First cup of coffee and all.
lol I need a strong coffee in the morning as well, I don't know why all brokers don't use the same timezone for their charts, I've seen other peoples 4hour charts compared to mine and they look nothing alike

But then again, I suppose it only matters when the new 4hour candles start and not so much on the timezone.

Edit, talking of caffeine, this week I've been drinking these in the morning instead of my usual morning cup, they seem to be doing the trick.
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  • #5,333
  • Apr 12, 2013 6:55am Apr 12, 2013 6:55am
Quoting GDR3k
Edit, talking of caffeine, this week I've been drinking these in the morning instead of my usual morning cup, they seem to be doing the trick. {image} {image}

That stuff will kill you in the long run bro. Depending on your health, maybe not so long. I'll stick with what God grows over what man makes any day!

But it is kind of cool to see my post and screen name immortalized forever in that picture. lol
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #5,334
  • Apr 12, 2013 6:58am Apr 12, 2013 6:58am
Quoting albchr
That stuff will kill you in the long run bro. Depending on your health, maybe not so long. I'll stick with what God grows over man makes any day! But it is kind of cool to see my post and screen name immortalized forever in that picture. lol
lol I've got about 2 weeks worth left if I have one a day, they help big time with hangovers as well. The price of coffee here has shot up over the past few months, for anything of OK quality freeze dried, you can expect to pay about £3.99 for a 100g jar, I've been sticking to the ground coffee, its usually cheaper and much better.
  • #5,335
  • Apr 12, 2013 7:02am Apr 12, 2013 7:02am
Quoting GDR3k
lol I've got about 2 weeks worth left if I have one a day, they help big time with hangovers as well. The price of coffee here has shot up over the past few months, for anything of OK quality freeze dried, you can expect to pay about £3.99 for a 100g jar, I've been sticking to the ground coffee, its usually cheaper and much better.
Freeze dried????

Wouldn't catch me within 100 miles of it. Mine is fresh ground every cup. If the beans ever get "too" expensive, I'll grow them!

So I guess we're waiting on yet more noise now. Can't they just put all this garbage out once a month, at the same time, and then let us get on with trading for a few weeks?
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #5,336
  • Apr 12, 2013 7:04am Apr 12, 2013 7:04am
Quoting albchr
Freeze dried???? Wouldn't catch me within 100 miles of it. Mine is fresh ground every cup. If the beans ever get "too" expensive, I'll grow them!
If you can get hold of this, I highly recommend it. I have to make do with my french press for now until I buy a proper coffee maker
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  • #5,337
  • Apr 12, 2013 7:16am Apr 12, 2013 7:16am
Well, that wasn't exactly the 4H close I was hoping for and I'll bet we're about to get some craziness here soon. Hmmmm.... pull stops to avoid spikes or stand pat and close my eyes? Decisions...Decisions....
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #5,338
  • Apr 12, 2013 7:21am Apr 12, 2013 7:21am
Quoting albchr
Well, that wasn't exactly the 4H close I was hoping for and I'll bet we're about to get some craziness here soon. Hmmmm.... pull stops to avoid spikes or stand pat and close my eyes? Decisions...Decisions....
Heres my 4hr chart, the current bar closes in 40 minutes and provided it closes bullish, I think we could see a pullback to the candle open before either bouncing off north [[that happens alot]], or smashing through and heading south, either way, my position is protected.

Edit, the price action on the 30m and 1hour charts are suggesting otherwise and it could just keep going up, this afternoon could prove to volatile for all the right reasons
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  • #5,339
  • Apr 12, 2013 7:28am Apr 12, 2013 7:28am
Quoting GDR3k
Heres my 4hr chart, the current bar closes in 40 minutes and provided it closes bullish, I think we could see a pullback to the candle open before either bouncing off north [[that happens alot]], or smashing through and heading south, either way, my position is protected. {image}
From here, it would have to spike down about 180 pips to hit my stops. Heck, we may get very little reaction at all. Who knows?
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #5,340
  • Apr 12, 2013 7:31am Apr 12, 2013 7:31am
Quoting albchr
From here, it would have to spike down about 180 pips to hit my stops. Heck, we may get very little reaction at all. Who knows?
Whatever happens, I'll be closing my position before market close later if I'm not hit at break even before then. Not liking these spikes though, news out for USD.
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