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NZD/USD

  • #1,341
  • Edited 11:15am Apr 11, 2013 11:00am | Edited 11:15am
I agree with you. This area is the highest point of the pair for a long period of time.

Quoting Davit
you could be waiting long time...perhaps another 3months or 3years
  • #1,342
  • Apr 11, 2013 11:26am Apr 11, 2013 11:26am
Quoting Davit
you could be waiting long time...perhaps another 3months or 3years
We will see about that soon enough. If it goes past 8588, then bye bye 8680'ties for a long time..and yes - as you say for months or even for never..
So far HH's and HL's lined nicely and weekly target only 50 pips away - its not out of the question yet.
69
  • #1,343
  • Apr 11, 2013 11:42am Apr 11, 2013 11:42am
Quoting Likerty
We will see about that soon enough. If it goes past 8588, then bye bye 8680'ties for a long time..and yes - as you say for months or even for never.. So far HH's and HL's lined nicely and weekly target only 50 pips away - its not out of the question yet.
Markets never work on set numbers.Its a fallacy.People who belive on Fibs think price turned becouse of x number.Elliot wavers believe it was wave 4 or whatever.Pivot believers think it hit R2 or whatever.
What I believe is simple market order flow and key support and resistance.Order flow is down now and Friday coming up so unlikely big push up action to happen.
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,344
  • Apr 11, 2013 12:10pm Apr 11, 2013 12:10pm
Quoting inpatient
The Dow Jones has surged last 2 hours (again) makes me think we haven't seen the last of the strength for the Kiwi.
People are addicted to that crack. 1595 on the S&P, to hell the mediocre data. It's only a matter of time.
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #1,345
  • Apr 11, 2013 12:57pm Apr 11, 2013 12:57pm
Quoting Pip Anon
People are addicted to that crack. 1595 on the S&P, to hell the mediocre data. It's only a matter of time.
setting up for a fun month of May

Could be a great opp.
Money never sleeps...
  • #1,346
  • Apr 11, 2013 1:26pm Apr 11, 2013 1:26pm
Quoting inpatient
setting up for a fun month of May Could be a great opp.
As the old adage goes "Sell in may and watch retailers lose their money" lol
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #1,347
  • Apr 11, 2013 1:58pm Apr 11, 2013 1:58pm
Quote
If it goes past 8588, then bye bye 8680'ties for a long time

Simple question , why .8588 especially ? i dont see why
  • #1,348
  • Apr 11, 2013 2:11pm Apr 11, 2013 2:11pm
about to get interesting
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Money never sleeps...
  • #1,349
  • Apr 11, 2013 2:26pm Apr 11, 2013 2:26pm
Quoting inpatient
about to get interesting
yes and this is interessing too

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Add 1 long GBP/NZD and add one more if it reach 1.79 tonight
  • #1,350
  • Edited 3:24pm Apr 11, 2013 2:37pm | Edited 3:24pm
hmmmm.....

EDIT: Noticing the RSI. Currently 91 on the daily, it's the highest it's been (at least going back 2 years.). Each time it has been over 80/85 a 150-200 pip drop has been seen. The question is when it will drop. My fear is that it will only decline enough to 80/75. The thing is from here, it will take a lot of ranging to shake it of or a massive quick spike only to resume.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #1,351
  • Apr 11, 2013 9:48pm Apr 11, 2013 9:48pm
can anybody tell me why it's still not dropping? No news from china, NZ, AU and still it's above 0.86!!
  • #1,352
  • Apr 11, 2013 9:49pm Apr 11, 2013 9:49pm
Quoting pcca-matrix
Simple question , why .8588 especially ? i dont see why
Actually you raised a profound question.I have been sick in my stomach people keep posting numbers 8588 or 8625 etc.It does not matter!!Price is dictated by maximum order flow and on each time frame-hour,day ,week,month one side wins that miniature battle.
In the east like Japan people rightly recognized long ego that price goes into a zone not specific number but a zone and that zone could be 20pips (hour) 50pips (day) 200pips (week) etc.
So lets say for example above 85 its a sell zone.That zone could be 50-300 pips.It does not matter we are in sell zone.
Same concept on opposite anything below 82 is buy zone.Zones are established based on historical currancy pair's range.
In the west we tend to think things being precise like math giving specific number like 8588 seems magical as though somehow traders will react magically to that number.Its pure horse manure.Best just ignore it.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,353
  • Apr 11, 2013 9:55pm Apr 11, 2013 9:55pm
Quoting namitak007
can anybody tell me why it's still not dropping? No news from china, NZ, AU and still it's above 0.86!!
patience!You must relax and allow price to do what it does.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,354
  • Apr 11, 2013 10:02pm Apr 11, 2013 10:02pm
I can agree with that in the sense that everything in life is derived by supply and demand, which in most cases in regards to a chart shows up as zones. I do think traders get wrapped up in numbers only because in many "trading" books focus on these theories. None seem to focus on supply and demand. I typically have numerous lines throughout my charts that almost represent blocks and it is impressive to see price respect such blocks. I use different analysis to get an overall picture, but I think some traders get fixated on one that only gives a very small portion.

I just recently started looking at market profile which is a histogram of prices during a given period. Pivots are nice. I don't use them as a singular number, but between the pivots create a "zone".Nevertheless, I am glad to say kiwi is declining a little.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #1,355
  • Apr 11, 2013 10:14pm Apr 11, 2013 10:14pm
Quoting Pip Anon
I can agree with that in the sense that everything in life is derived by supply and demand, which in most cases in regards to a chart shows up as zones. I do think traders get wrapped up in numbers only because in many "trading" books focus on these theories. None seem to focus on supply and demand. I typically have numerous lines throughout my charts that almost represent blocks and it is impressive to see price respect such blocks. I use different analysis to get an overall picture, but I think some traders get fixated on one that only gives...
I have been astutely observing fib ratios and pivots on this pair and frankly little of significance in terms of market reacting to them.
Markets these days are moved by key news releases coupled by fundamentals.Once the institutions decide on the direction they can give a fk about fibs,pivots and all that nonsense.
They move the market and they create the order flow.Its our job as retail traders to be on the same side as them.I believe this is the most honest simple truth.
I do like volume as indication of order flow.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,356
  • Apr 11, 2013 10:21pm Apr 11, 2013 10:21pm
Quoting Davit
I have been astutely observing fib ratios and pivots on this pair and frankly little of significance in terms of market reacting to them. Markets these days are moved by key news releases coupled by fundamentals.Once the institutions decide on the direction they can give a fk about fibs,pivots and all that nonsense. They move the market and they create the order flow.Its our job as retail traders to be on the same side as them.I believe this is the most honest simple truth. I do like volume as indication of order flow.
Well, I don't really believe that it is run on fundamentals. It's run on irrationality. I mean if it was run on fundamentals, the S&P doesn't go up 20 pts on shite job data; the euro doesn't go up on a contraction of GDP; Aussie doesn't spike to highs because they lost almost 50% of the jobs they "earned" the previous month. For months analysts scream S&P 1650 on outstanding earnings reports, and it's up 1%. Fundamentals are important, don't get me wrong.

The market is run on the assumption that all the world's free money will solve broken economies without fundamental policy change. QE has ruined fundamentals. The 2008 collapse was fundamentally driven.
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #1,357
  • Apr 11, 2013 10:35pm Apr 11, 2013 10:35pm
If upcoming news today from USD shows weak data then another drop from USD can be seen and it may rise NZD/USD pair again above .865
I just pray it will not happen!
  • #1,358
  • Apr 11, 2013 10:38pm Apr 11, 2013 10:38pm
Quoting Pip Anon
The 2008 collapse was fundamentally driven.
So did recent NZD and Aussie drive north.
Feds and BOj easing caused money flowing into "safe" high yielding pairs.One can describe that as fundamental related.Would you not agree?
It most certainty was not caused by magical butterfly shape.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,359
  • Apr 11, 2013 10:49pm Apr 11, 2013 10:49pm
Quoting Davit
So did recent NZD and Aussie drive north. Feds and BOj easing caused money flowing into "safe" high yielding pairs.One can describe that as fundamental related.Would you not agree? It most certainty was not caused by magical butterfly shape.
Not really because the QE is forcing traders into these assets. That is artificial because than the currency is not based on the country's fundamentals. I don't think is fundamentally driven.

It's like holding a junk bond over a corporate bond because the junk bond yields more. The corporate bond has sound fundamentals, but we'll pile into junk because I can potentially make more.
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #1,360
  • Apr 11, 2013 10:54pm Apr 11, 2013 10:54pm
Quoting Pip Anon
Not really because the QE is forcing traders into these assets. That is artificial because than the currency is not based on the country's fundamentals. I don't think is fundamentally driven. It's like holding a junk bond over a corporate bond because the junk bond yields more. The corporate bond has sound fundamentals, but we'll pile into junk because I can potentially make more.
I think we are talking about the same thing but slightly differently.I believe outside of charts,technicals everything is fundamental meaning news,government actions etc.
You think fundamental more in terms of real traditional factors but I include everything outside the charts as fundamental.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
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