Price Action, Pro, And Ichi Trading with 2ndskiesforex

Looks like that swing area of consolidation on the weekly chart (Weekly Demand area) ruined your plans. Pressumably you would have reacted to the strong momentum up and not shorted at all?

Hello Porkpie,
Didn't ruin my plans at all - I have been short since 1.3050 which I wrote about a few weeks ago as the level to short, and had already locked in plenty of profit. But i'm guessing the weekly demand area had nothing to do with it - considering the intraday charts on the Euro were quite bearish, and it was exactly to the minute (actually within 30 seconds) that Draghi said, "No Plan B", that the pair launched higher. I feel quite confident I would have gotten more out of it, but was more than happy with my +170 pips.

As to re-shorting, when I see reversal price action like that, I know not to go against that and even wrote about it here.

All the best.
Chris Capre

Hello Traders,

This week is showing a lot of good setups on the JPY pairs, Gold, Silver, Oil, European Indices, AUDUSD, Euro, and more.

Today I'm going to focus on the GBPJPY and Gold.

GBPJPY
The japanese yen has been monkey-hammered by the BOJ bazooka which is now making helicopter ben look like a miser when it comes to central bank intervention and quantitative easing with its bond buying program.

I think among the JPY pairs for now, the GBPJPY looks the best as its cleared the yearly highs easily, while EURJPY is just above it, and USDJPY the same. I think these new yearly highs have taken out any stops or shorts, and thus sets up an opportunity for a breakout pullback setup at the key levels mentioned (chart below).



I'll look to get long at either the 150 big figure or the 148 role reversal level, and stops below the March highs. I think the JPY will depreciate massively over the coming weeks, months and years - probably more than others anticipate, with USDJPY going to 250 eventually.

For the GBPJPY, short term targets are 153 and 162.30 which is the 2009 double top highs.

Gold
In a long protracted downtrend since $1800, Gold was approaching the 2012 lows before finding some buyers last week off of $1540. This was first marked by a pin bar signal, which then found further buying to the tune of $30 higher.

What is most interesting to me, is how the pair formed a new swing low below the prior support, but then broke back into the larger range. Usually in heavily mature trends, a breakout failure like this, either signals a reversal, or a 're-distribution' of the order flow.



Although the PM looks fragile, a clearing of $1620, or a second test and hold on the yearly lows will likely bring in more buyers and thus neutralize the medium term bear trend. Bears can look to sell around $1620, targeting $1600 and $1554, while bulls can look for a pullback towards the latter level to get long.

Kind Regards,
Chris Capre

Chris,

A nice backup plan and very good move to grab +170 pips. This week is important for EURO to decide the direction. Thanks for the frequent updates. Really valuable posts.

Nicely done. Chris, on an entirely different matter. I have just commented on your post regarding 'Stan's trades. I am not picking on you, you clearly demonstrate a passion for trading and I have no doubt as to your ability. However, the business practices of trading education vendors such as yourself and the reality of trading often clash and produce a big smoke cloud of deception and half truths which I would like you to discuss in more detail if you would be so kind. Here is my post:

"Thats really great for 'Stan'. But, it concerns me greatly Chris that you have decided to promote 'Stan's' achievement to promote your course without highlighting the error of Stans trades. Principally given the weakness of the JPY he may as well of traded the USDJPY alone 3 times his normal risk. Meaning he was 3 times over his risk limit and would have suffered significantly had the JPY decided to strengthen. Chris, I am sure your course is great but wouldn't it be best to highlight the problems with 'Stan's' trades rather than use his pip count to demonstrate the potential application of your course. I see so many vendors do this time and time again. 3 trades is hardly evidence to support your course which I am sure is good regardless. Lastly, why is it vendors have such a hard time discussing percentage return on account. Because pip count sounds so much better doesn't it! But there is a huge difference...You are a businessman but I think it is better to demonstrate your superior trading knowledge rather than to demonstrate your requirement for business by not limiting the important facts of a student's success".

Kind regards
PP

Hello George,

I think there is some confusion, misunderstanding and assumptions here.

First off, why would Stan have traded 3x his normal risk by taking three separate trades on the JPY? This is an assumption. I teach all my students to have a max risk per day, and if they have multiple trades, then just divide the risk up evenly across the trades so the total risk is still the same. For example, if their max risk is 6% on the day, then across three trades they would have 2% risk each trade. Thus, there is no '3x his normal risk here' or 'going over his risk limit'. Risk is fixed % wise per trade and per day, so there is a confusion here about going over risk profiles which never would have happened.

Along those lines, I actually think it was far more prudent to trade several JPY pairs instead of one. Why? Well perhaps the USD may not perform the best vs. the JPY. All the JPY pairs gained, but not equally, and trading across several would have spread out the potential upside profit. Maybe one pair had more resistance levels in front of it, maybe the CHF or GBP would outperform the USD, hence, just piling into one currency vs. the JPY I think would be a mistake if one was trading against the JPY. So I think this is also a confusion and misunderstanding here, and I see no problems with how Stan traded it. Quite the opposite imo.

Secondly, regarding using three trades as 'evidence to support my course', seems like you missed the bus on this one, as I've been doing this for years (sharing student trades and performance), going back to 2011 when I shared an entire year of a student's trading performance, whereby they did 110% gain for the year, with a 59.67% hit rate, with largest win being 43% greater than his largest loss, with max. consec. wins at 16, while max. consec. losses at 6, and largest position size being 1M. You can find the article here Ode to the 4hr Charts. And this was just using one system, on one time frame and one pair. Food for thought - but you will find his entire trading record for the year there.

In addition to this, I've been posting student trades like this for the last 1.5yrs on my 2ndSkiesForex facebook page, which you can see via the link. I'll be adding more this week so you can see more examples. But it seems like you missed some details here, as this is certainly not the first time I've done this - quite the contrary.

Thirdly, regarding discussing % return instead of pip count - percentage return is a variable based on % risk per trade now isn't it? So what your saying is, if they risked 10% (just using an example), and made 20R on the trade (20x their 1R risk), that it would be better to post they made a 200% return in two days then posting how much they made in pips? I would be much more reticent to post someone doing a 200% return, then their actual pip gain. Especially since % gain is relative to % risked per trade.

But there is something far superior than % return or pip count imo. That is the R:R ratios on the trade, and total R gained. This to me is more authentic and a much better gauge as to how they performed then just pure pip count, or % gain which can seem over inflated based on % risk. This is especially true when they go several variables above their normal R gain, as this is where they pile the alpha on their account. But I will be posting this once I find out his total R, as from last I heard, he's still in the trade.

Furthering this point, you will notice on pretty much every trade I post from a student on my FB page, they almost invariably have the R:R ratios, and not just pip count, because I find these two in conjunction form a really good information base on how they did. If they hit their normal R - great...if they hit a much higher R than usual - even better! But regardless, I chose this for now as the best gauge of his performance instead of showing a potentially high % gain.

So based on all of the above, I see no errors in Stan's trades or problems to highlight. In addition to this, I think there is some confusion, misunderstanding and assumptions based on your comments.

Kind Regards,
Chris Capre

P/S/ you will find my identical response to your comment on the site as well.

Hello Chris,

Any trading ideas for today ?

He Alanmac, EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD all had good buy signals earlier
maybe waiting for retracements later or tomorrow.

I went for the EURAUD pair gunning for a 4.5:1 reward to risk ratio on the 1st position...

Hello Traders,

Sorry for the delay in being out. Am back now.

I think JPY pairs, being long US indices, and short European ones, is the play for now.

EURJPY has been slow and steady over this week, continually using former resistance levels as support (see chart below), offering good entry points.



Momentum is slowing a bit, likely re-distribution at these levels, and also not a lot of heavy players wanting to chase at this point. So I'll look for price action signals and pullbacks towards 129.54, 128.51, and 127.81 to rejoin the trend which I think should go on for much longer than people expect, minimally up to 134, likely 138.30, and maybe back towards 150 in the coming weeks, or late May.

Kind Regards,
Chris Capre

Many thanks for the levels. Yen pairs very straightforward to the upside. Couldn't find possible support levels by myself to get in the trend. You charts gave a clear idea. We may see some action later today.

Pretty much the uptrend continues expecting the corrective move to end at 129.44 minor support area.

868 pips on my trade so far from last week. feeling the heat now and could start taking profit should the corrective move move another
200pips to the downside.

Nice one Chris!

Nice trading there Danny. Feel free to share screenshots of the trades you are taking here from the broker charts showing entries and exits when you can.

But keep up the good work.

Kind Regards,
Chris Capre

Hello Traders,

The price action is shaping up to make this an interesting week.

I think the first pairs you'll want to look at for this week will be the JPY pairs, particularly the EURJPY and GBPJPY which sold off heavily to end last week. For those closely following this thread, I actually posted about this here hours ahead of time.

EURJPY
Looking at the chart below, we can see the selling on late Friday took out the last two days lows (almost a third), which has likely tripped medium term stops from the bulls. The overall trend is still well into place, so I'll look for price action signals at 128.51 and 127.80 (former yearly high) to rejoin the trend. Only a break below 124.42 will damage the medium term bull trend.



Gold - Breaking Bad Edition
How can you not talk about Gold which got monkey-hammered last week, losing over $75 on Friday alone. The key was the large breakout bar which tripped medium term stops from bulls, by breaking below the $1520 multi-year support level.

You may see a short term pop this week, but consider these rallies to get short for a much larger move down, as the PM could be headed for $1433 and perhaps much lower before finding a base.

Bottoms after moves like this are rarely formed in a day, and often take weeks, perhaps months, so do not worry about catching a falling knife here. It will show signs of a bottom well before it actually does, so look for primarily shorts till we see some stronger basing, which may be a while.



Kind Regards,
Chris Capre

Rocking Trade Mate. You got a lot of patience.

Nice Chris, Look at Gold Now. Never seen a drop like this one before. Hope you got something from it. What is your future outlook on Gold ?

slow on trading pressure i am used to long term trades that last about 2 months to an year for the
stable stuff.
For the EUR/JPY my trades are quite short term. usually about two weeks per trade.

Hello Traders,

A lot of really good setups to start the week in gold/silver, Euro and JPY pairs, along with indices as well - so expecting this to be a really interesting trading week.

Wanted to comment on two today;

EURUSD
As stated on Thursday last week, the pair played out exactly as expected, popping up to the range high around 1.3121, forming a pin bar, then selling off about 70pips from there, so hopefully you profited from this as many of the forum members did.

Any corrective pullbacks into the range high and pin bar (chart below) will likely offer a good intra-day sell signal targeting the range low. This is also forming a potential head and shoulders pattern on the 4hr, so could see a major break lower should 1.3000 fail to hold.



German Dax 30
Showing signs that its rolling over, the Dax has one of its worst losing weeks in over a year, and is barely sitting above key support level at 7460 which is a mutli-year support level (chart below).

The major support at 7550 was broken last week, so ill look for corrective price action signals to short here as I'm expecting rallies to be sold for an eventual move lower.



Kind Regards,
Chris Capre

made quite a good number of pips on the set ups last week and hoping that I can collect more
from the week's setups.

Hello Danny ,

Hope you are doing great. Nice to hear that u got pips from last week trades.

I am with you to grab more pips this week.