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Trading IS Gambling...

  • #21
  • Jun 13, 2006 3:07pm Jun 13, 2006 3:07pm
Quoting Klaka
I'm just stating the obvious, you'd be delusional if you couldn't understand the concept. If you risk losing something in order to gain something else that isn't yours, either you, or the opposite party initially stand to lose something, or gain in the current process. It's ultimate, or immediately, either way you want to put it. Considered gambling. Someone has to lose in that exchange because of the gambled item exchanged.

In trading, in this case. You BOTH, you and the opposite party are speculating against each other on the simple concept of moving prices. How hard is that to see? You may be good at what you do, don't get me wrong and you may know how to profit very well and know afew of the ropes. But, you shouldn't let ego cloud ypur judgement, you "risk to gain". = Gambling, trading is in my opinion "respectable gambling", you have the stock market and tv movie rumors to thank for that.

Lose for gain, gain for loss.

In every aspect of life, this is considered gambling, i guess in investing, or "trading" so to speak. The moral is set too high, because alot of really big egos aren't willing to expect, nor except that very basic, yet drastically important fact. Now, please by all means. Don't throw a fist fight, i am stating facts on what it really is. It maynot be what you want to hear, but.

It DOESN'T get anymore obviously simple than that.
Speculation Investing is what trading is based off of.
"An educated guess", systematic, fundamental, sign provided, technical, inside, or otherwise. Noone knows where the price will go guaranteed and someone has to win, or lose based off that speculation.

You don't need rocket science to prove that. It's right infront of you.
You explain it better it than I can. Thanks.
  • #22
  • Jun 13, 2006 3:26pm Jun 13, 2006 3:26pm
It takes a real smart man to admit it is a gambling game. For those who see it like that "good for you".

Now, adapt and build your trading strategies around the fact that you are gambling and you will enter a whole new trading arena. You can beat this market, but only if you can admit that with conventional trading methods you will not succeed.

Rules are made to be broken. Brake them and see for yourself. And never ever overleverage!

Try to be smart and trade like the books tell you, or do things differently and taste real success.

cobra
This is no advice to anyone. ( You do with it what you want...)
Never Ever Give Up!
  • #23
  • Jun 13, 2006 3:34pm Jun 13, 2006 3:34pm
Quoting Klaka
I'm just stating the obvious, you'd be delusional if you couldn't understand the concept. If you risk losing something in order to gain something else that isn't yours, either you, or the opposite party initially stand to lose something, or gain in the current process. It's ultimate, or immediately, either way you want to put it. Considered gambling. Someone has to lose in that exchange because of the gambled item exchanged.

In trading, in this case. You BOTH, you and the opposite party are speculating against each other on the simple concept of moving prices. How hard is that to see? You may be good at what you do, don't get me wrong and you may know how to profit very well and know afew of the ropes. But, you shouldn't let ego cloud ypur judgement, you "risk to gain". = Gambling, trading is in my opinion "respectable gambling", you have the stock market and tv movie rumors to thank for that.

Lose for gain, gain for loss.

In every aspect of life, this is considered gambling, i guess in investing, or "trading" so to speak. The moral is set too high, because alot of really big egos aren't willing to expect, nor except that very basic, yet drastically important fact. Now, please by all means. Don't throw a fist fight, i am stating facts on what it really is. It maynot be what you want to hear, but.

It DOESN'T get anymore obviously simple than that.
Speculation Investing is what trading is based off of.
"An educated guess", systematic, fundamental, sign provided, technical, inside, or otherwise. Noone knows where the price will go guaranteed and someone has to win, or lose based off that speculation.

You don't need rocket science to prove that. It's right infront of you.
Please reread the above quote but instead of thinking Forex, think buying a house. Everything Klaka just said applies. When you buy a house you are speculating. You hope the price goes up. It usually does. but I am old enough to remember times when the housing marked crashed and wiped out a lot of folks who were holding balloon payments. (I am older than dirt.) Anytime you buy something with the hope of reselling it you are "gambling". If you use your definition.

Could we agree that there exists a spectrum of risk. We all choose where we feel comfortable on that spectrum. One persons "gamble" is anothers "sure thing". What I choose to call speculation you choose to call gambling. I just think that the dictionary (especily Gaylords Unabridiged) will back me up on this one.
Nolite dormiens pungere ursum. -- Latan Proverb.
  • #24
  • Jun 13, 2006 3:39pm Jun 13, 2006 3:39pm
Quoting MrWhipple
Please reread the above quote but instead of thinking Forex, think buying a house. Everything Klaka just said applies. When you buy a house you are speculating. You hope the price goes up. It usually does. but I am old enough to remember times when the housing marked crashed and wiped out a lot of folks who were holding balloon payments. (I am older than dirt.) Anytime you buy something with the hope of reselling it you are "gambling". If you use your definition.

Could we agree that there exists a spectrum of risk. We all choose where we feel comfortable on that spectrum. One persons "gamble" is anothers "sure thing". What I choose to call speculation you choose to call gambling. I just think that the dictionary (especily Gaylords Unabridiged) will back me up on this one.
Didn't we already go over the definition stuff at the beginning?

Dictionary.com: "Gambling - To take a risk in the hope of gaining an advantage or a benefit." -> was one definition.
  • #25
  • Jun 13, 2006 3:45pm Jun 13, 2006 3:45pm
Once I asked "is it really possible to make money in Forex?" and I got the following answer - along with several others - from one of our members "Bemac".

Quoting Bemac
...

Words of "The Gambler". Remember that you are a Speculator, not a gambler.

Gambling is 50/50.
Speculating stacks the odds in your favour.
Study to be a Speculator.

...
I believe that no one can predict the future. There is no indicator, no analysis method, or no experience that can for sure predict what will happen to the market direction in the future. That's why even the largest institutions who have hired several professional technical and fundamental analysts keep loosing money in some of their trades.

Nonetheles, as said by Bemac, Forex trading is not gambling for a professional trader because with the help of his/her knowledge and experience he/she can have more winning trades than loosing ones (maybe even near to 100%). That's why for a professional trader Forex trading is speculation.

The more knowladgable and experienced you are, the more speculator and less gambler you will be. You'll gradually learn not to be greedy/timid and understand the behaviour of the market better than before. If I believed -as little as the tip of a niddle - that Forex is gampling I wouldn't waste my time there. You can play poker and enjoy your time while you probably make money out of gambling.
  • #26
  • Jun 13, 2006 3:48pm Jun 13, 2006 3:48pm
Quoting aparsai
Once I asked "is it really possible to make money in Forex?" and I got the following answer - along with several others - from one of our members "Bemac".



I believe that no one can predict the future. There is no indicator, no analysis method, or no experience that can for sure predict what will happen to the market direction in the future. That's why even the largest institutions who have hired several professional technical and fundamental analysts keep loosing money in some of their trades.

Nonetheles, as said by Bemac, Forex trading is not gambling for a professional trader because with the help of his/her knowledge and experience he/she can have more winning trades than loosing ones (maybe even near to 100%). That's why for a professional trader Forex trading is speculation.

The more knowladgable and experienced you are, the more speculator and less gambler you will be. You'll gradually learn not to be greedy/timid and understand the behaviour of the market better than before. If I believed -as little as the tip of a niddle - that Forex is gampling I wouldn't waste my time there. You can play poker and enjoy your time while you probably make money out of gambling.
I think you missed my original point when I started the thread.

Coming from the Poker world, where many players do have a positive expectation (they win more than they lose), still call it gambling. You can call it speculation if you want, but I think that's just a more politically correct word that really means the same thing.

"Ohh nooo.. trading is gambling! Head for the hills! Sleazy gambling!" ... "Noo noo.. I'm just speculating on the outcome." etc...

Look up Mason Malmuth's "Gambling Theory and Other Topics" or David Sklansky's "Getting the Best of It'. Heck just look up "gambling theory" on amazon and I think things will become more clear.
  • #27
  • Jun 13, 2006 3:49pm Jun 13, 2006 3:49pm
Answers.com
spec·u·la·tion (spĕk'yə-lā'shən) http://content.answers.com/main/content/img/pron.gif
n.

    1. Contemplation or consideration of a subject; meditation.
    2. A conclusion, opinion, or theory reached by conjecture.
    3. Reasoning based on inconclusive evidence; conjecture or supposition.

    1. Engagement in risky business transactions on the chance of quick or considerable profit.
    2. A commercial or financial transaction involving speculation.

Nolite dormiens pungere ursum. -- Latan Proverb.
  • #28
  • Jun 13, 2006 3:53pm Jun 13, 2006 3:53pm
Quoting MrWhipple
Answers.com
spec·u·la·tion (spĕk'yə-lā'shən) http://content.answers.com/main/content/img/pron.gif
n.

 

    1. Contemplation or consideration of a subject; meditation.
    2. A conclusion, opinion, or theory reached by conjecture.
    3. Reasoning based on inconclusive evidence; conjecture or supposition.


  2.  

    1. Engagement in risky business transactions on the chance of quick or considerable profit.
    2. A commercial or financial transaction involving speculation.

What's your point?

Compare "To take a risk in the hope of gaining an advantage or a benefit." in the gambling definition and your "Engagement in risky business transactions on the chance of quick or considerable profit."

Same thing no?
  • #29
  • Jun 13, 2006 4:10pm Jun 13, 2006 4:10pm
Most forms of "gambling" (I will call it gaming as they do in Reno where I used to gamble) is based on mathmatical probilities that are worked out in advance. The players and the house all know this going in. The odds are always in favor of the house. Even in most forms of poker the house gets it's cut one way or another.

The odds can be deterministic, as in roullette, where there are a finite set of outcomes for the players to win and a few that the house always wins ie 0 and 00 and sometimes 000. So if you had a wheel that had 32 slots your odds would be 1 in 32 of hitting any number. but there is the 0 and 00 so your odds are 1 in 34 and the house pays 32 to 1. So in essence the more you play the more you loose.

Other games are less detriminstic, like Blackjack. When a deck is first shuffled the odds are set, but as soon as the first card is played/revealed, the odds change and they change with each successive card played. That is why pros like Blackjack and that is why you can't seem to get a single deck game anywere anymore. The Indian casinos around here play 6 decks out of a shoe on continious shuffle. That takes all of the edge away.

My point is that in Forex there are no odds. There is nobody really making up the rules. It is just everybody out for himself in one of the purest market places on the planet. And guess what we all have a front row seat and we can play right along with the "Big Boys". Ain't that a hoot.
Nolite dormiens pungere ursum. -- Latan Proverb.
  • #30
  • Jun 13, 2006 4:18pm Jun 13, 2006 4:18pm
Quoting MrWhipple
Most forms of "gambling" (I will call it gaming as they do in Reno where I used to gamble) is based on mathmatical probilities that are worked out in advance. The players and the house all know this going in. The odds are always in favor of the house. Even in most forms of poker the house gets it's cut one way or another.
Yup and our brokers (house) gets its cut from the spread. There are some probabilities in Poker, specifically things like pot odds, implied odds, etc. However there is a lot of discretionary action taken (player reads are an example).

Quote
The odds can be deterministic, as in roullette, where there are a finite set of outcomes for the players to win and a few that the house always wins ie 0 and 00 and sometimes 000. So if you had a wheel that had 32 slots your odds would be 1 in 32 of hitting any number. but there is the 0 and 00 so your odds are 1 in 34 and the house pays 32 to 1. So in essence the more you play the more you loose.

Yes in certain games you know the "state" the game is in, like chess and roulette. There is a perfect way to play every state. In poker or trading the number of possible states is so large that you can't calculate a perfect solution.

Quote
Other games are less detriminstic, like Blackjack. When a deck is first shuffled the odds are set, but as soon as the first card is played/revealed, the odds change and they change with each successive card played. That is why pros like Blackjack and that is why you can't seem to get a single deck game anywere anymore. The Indian casinos around here play 6 decks out of a shoe on continious shuffle. That takes all of the edge away.

Yup that adds to what I said above.

Quote
My point is that in Forex there are no odds. There is nobody really making up the rules. It is just everybody out for himself in one of the purest market places on the planet. And guess what we all have a front row seat and we can play right along with the "Big Boys". Ain't that a hoot.

No odds? Ever read the bit about picking marbles out of a bag in the Vegas documents? If you haven't you should. Trading is all about odds.
  • #31
  • Jun 13, 2006 4:43pm Jun 13, 2006 4:43pm
There are many that do not understand how the markets work. These are the ones that have turned trading into gambling. Now that I treat trading as a business I do not gamble on my trades. Each is planned and executed as planned. I refer to my trading as 'taking a business risk'. Of course we are all free to call what we do anything we want.

In the world according to Victor Niederhoffer, life is speculation and we are all speculators, except when we lose—then we are gamblers. ...
In trading, there is no bullshit. You either make money or you don't.
  • #32
  • Jun 13, 2006 5:04pm Jun 13, 2006 5:04pm
According to this thread - there is more than one definition of trading.

Some people say - trading is gambling cause you simply dont know whats going to happen next.

I dont necessarily agree with this.

I think trading can be defined as risk - but not gambling.

When you set up a business - are you gambling?? or are you taking a risk???

Trading - as i said before - is only gambling, when you place all your chips on the table and take a 'punt' at what will happen next.

However, if you place only 2% of your chips on the table, and conduct an analysis of what will happen next - are you gambling, or taking a risk??

Does this mean everytime you walk out onto the street - are you taking a risk? or are you gambling??

This is how i see it...

Cheers

Rusty
  • #33
  • Jun 13, 2006 5:52pm Jun 13, 2006 5:52pm
there are two ways to gamble...with the odds in your favor, and with the odds against you.

the professional gambler is the one with the odds in their favor, no matter if you are talking about blackjack, poker, or trading.

there is nothing wrong with being a professional gambler, i am proud to be one and i think it is the best business you can have. low overhead, just a few employees, no inventory, extremely scalable....and fun as hell!!!!
Relax and be happy.
  • #34
  • Jun 13, 2006 6:12pm Jun 13, 2006 6:12pm
Investing is gambling. If you have moral issues with gambling there are other ways to earn money (although most of those are a gable too).
  • #35
  • Jun 13, 2006 6:19pm Jun 13, 2006 6:19pm
It is by far the best business... think about it.
No customers, no inventory, no vendors, no advertizers, When a transaction completes no warranties to give. No Christmas cards to write. No Hill Farms gift baskets to give out... It is the best ever.. Count me in...

Scott


Quoting merlin
there are two ways to gamble...with the odds in your favor, and with the odds against you.

the professional gambler is the one with the odds in their favor, no matter if you are talking about blackjack, poker, or trading.

there is nothing wrong with being a professional gambler, i am proud to be one and i think it is the best business you can have. low overhead, just a few employees, no inventory, extremely scalable....and fun as hell!!!!
  • #36
  • Jun 13, 2006 6:24pm Jun 13, 2006 6:24pm
If you are risk averse enough getting out of bed in the morning is a "gamble". but so is staying in. Your house may get wacked by an asteroid (I am sure someone around here could come up with the odds for that one). I am just trying to draw some distinctions based on precice definitions rather than generaly accepted broadly defined terms.

By the broad definition, life is a gamble, get over it. I have stared Death in the face and smiled back on more than one occation in the past three years, so I have a bit of experience in this area. Life is for living, not worring. If you become obsessed about what you might loose, guess what, you have already lost. So what if we are all gambling (or gamboling)!!! Let's just have a blast doing it and if we make a few bucks along the road, so much the better!!!
Nolite dormiens pungere ursum. -- Latan Proverb.
  • #37
  • Jun 13, 2006 6:38pm Jun 13, 2006 6:38pm
Quoting fizzleboink
Yup and our brokers (house) gets its cut from the spread. There are some probabilities in Poker, specifically things like pot odds, implied odds, etc. However there is a lot of discretionary action taken (player reads are an example).

Yes in certain games you know the "state" the game is in, like chess and roulette. There is a perfect way to play every state. In poker or trading the number of possible states is so large that you can't calculate a perfect solution.

Yup that adds to what I said above.


No odds? Ever read the bit about picking marbles out of a bag in the Vegas documents? If you haven't you should. Trading is all about odds.
I agree that poker falls into the same group as Blackjack in that is is less deterministic than other games, but the odds of the next card are always known and finite. (they even show them on TV) The state of the game is known and the optomal solution can be known. Player reads and bluffing is a bunch of huey when it comes to the math of it and falls into the same class as free drinks and cute chicks. Just a distraction. (IMHO)

If you think that there are odds on Forex, next time you are in Vegas give me a call and quote me the morning line on USD/GBP it may be better than what my indicators are telling me
Nolite dormiens pungere ursum. -- Latan Proverb.
  • #38
  • Jun 13, 2006 6:46pm Jun 13, 2006 6:46pm
Quoting smjones
It is by far the best business... think about it.
No customers, no inventory, no vendors, no advertizers, When a transaction completes no warranties to give. No Christmas cards to write. No Hill Farms gift baskets to give out... It is the best ever.. Count me in...

Scott
LOL

i knew you'd relate...

you really have to run an "real world" business to appriciate the simplicity of this trading business. sure, its hard, but its so incredibly simple! you got a plan, a system, a platform, some spreadsheets, money, and not much else
Relax and be happy.
  • #39
  • Jun 13, 2006 6:48pm Jun 13, 2006 6:48pm
Quoting MrWhipple
I agree that poker falls into the same group as Blackjack in that is is less deterministic than other games, but the odds of the next card are always known and finite. (they even show them on TV) The state of the game is known and the optomal solution can be known. Player reads and bluffing is a bunch of huey when it comes to the math of it and falls into the same class as free drinks and cute chicks. Just a distraction. (IMHO)

If you think that there are odds on Forex, next time you are in Vegas give me a call and quote me the morning line on USD/GBP it may be better than what my indicators are telling me
Player reads and bluffing gets extremely important as you move up the ladder.

The state of the poker game is known just as much as previous price action
in the markets is known. It's just that there's way too many states to "solve" the game. Trading and poker are more similar than most people realize, and on many levels.

You completely misunderstood what I said about Vegas and odds. I'm talking about the person Vegas, on these forums. Read what he wrote for us. I meant odds as in probabilities.

Nonetheless, have you seen http://www.betonmarkets.com/ ?
  • #40
  • Jun 13, 2006 6:49pm Jun 13, 2006 6:49pm
Quoting merlin
LOL

i knew you'd relate...

you really have to run an "real world" business to appriciate the simplicity of this trading business. sure, its hard, but its so incredibly simple! you got a plan, a system, a platform, some spreadsheets, money, and not much else
lol this is so true.

All you need is your brain, a computer, and an internet connection.
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