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GU, GJ and EU Analysis Thread

  • #1,161
  • Apr 10, 2013 9:15am Apr 10, 2013 9:15am
Quoting smikester
Cdndollar I wish I could get a handle on that decoupling on the 13th March - Eur/Gbp. I have been studying that but with limited success.
Hindsight analysis notwithstanding, here are some tell tale clues if one was to assets the PA for the trio objectively during the period from February 1st to March 13th (I, for one was looking for EU trend continuation)..
After running up 10 figures, EG was stalling at major weekly resist zone plus being weighted down by both EU & GU PA during the period of interest with RSI finally confirming the divergences & breach of the TL on the 13th March..

EURGBP D1 vs GBPUSD+EURUSD
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EG D1-20130410-GB+EU.png Size: 62 KB


GBPUSD D1 vs EURGBP+EURUSD
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU D1-20130410-EG+EU.png Size: 61 KB
  • #1,162
  • Apr 11, 2013 7:07am Apr 11, 2013 7:07am
Good morning all,
as anticipated yesterday Scenario 1 is playing out, so I would be very careful selling the EUR/USD. Not until we get into the 1.3340-60 area. At that point a retrace into the 1.3140 area is possible.

Have a great day.
Good luck.

Quoting fibstalker
... I want to remind you all my latest reviews on the Euro FX currency futures I made before leaving: post #6524356 and in my newsletter (last one sent on March 17th). This is my up to date view of the Euro (daily chart)....
Scenario 1. The Euro is not likely to offer a throw-back at this stage and it is very possible that will just continue generally higher into the 1.3360 area (and higher) before we get a sensible correction. Such a move downwards could bring prices...
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #1,163
  • Apr 16, 2013 5:39am Apr 16, 2013 5:39am
Quoting cdndollar
EURUSD & GBPUSD end of month Easter week Update..
{image} Cable leading cousin Euro.. {image}
Euro COT @03192013: {image} the Big dogs had been covering some of their windfalls from last July.. their sentiment could change on a dime @ good risk-adjusted inflection zones..

EURUSD & GBPUSD Mid month Update..
Good support while Gold was losing it's shine big time.. Look for Gold to consolidate & retrace here along with the lead Crosses to lift the whole complex up to the next levels..


http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1366105106



Euro COT @04092013:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Euro CFTC COT-20130409-4 years.png Size: 129 KB

After covering some of their windfalls, the Big Dogs are now scaling in @ the recent inflection zones for another probe at the January highs..
  • #1,164
  • Apr 17, 2013 5:59pm Apr 17, 2013 5:59pm
Quoting fibstalker
Good morning all, as anticipated yesterday Scenario 1 is playing out, so I would be very careful selling the EUR/USD. Not until we get into the 1.3340-60 area. At that point a retrace into the 1.3140 area is possible. Have a great day. Good luck.

Hello all,
quick update on Euro FX futures, Dollar Index and S&P500 (no pictures sorry, but you can check the video on my blog).

Euro-Dollar FX currency futures

While lots of people think this is the start of a resumed move lower, I think this move lower is due to failure of a continuation higher in the lower timeframes.

Scenario 1. The upmove in the Euro is still intact and the current move lower is going to be an opportunity for bulls to add to their long positions. We have support starting at the 1.3040 area and if price does not pierce the 1.30 level, we could see a lift starting here into 1.3280 and then 1.3410 area before a larger retrace.

Scenario 2. If the 1.30 level is pierced on the downside price is going to move into the next area of anticipated long participation starting at 1.2980. Below 1.2926 there will still be the 1.2915-20 area of previous support.


Dollar Index futures.

I am sure a lot of people are interpreting today’s move like a confirmation that the Dollar bulls is still intact. Last week, however, an important extension area starting at 83.20 has failed. Failure came with DX price piercing the 82 level on the downside. The current move higher is probably due only to major pairs (EUR/USD, GPB/USD and USD/CAD) setting up for the next measured move (maybe with the exception of the USD/CAD which is trading the next traditional long, after failing the current sequence). The Dollar Index is trading the next short setup and resistance area starting at 82.70 and will keep its bearish stance below 83.15


S&P500 futures.

The S&P500 started profit taking right at the 1,593 highs, second target of the larger move started in November last year.


Scenario 1. The up-move in the stock index has not ended, but just paused. The next long setup and strong participation on the upside can be found starting at the 1,526 area. If price never moves below the 1,508 level we could witness a continuation higher in the summer into the 1,624 first target, and even higher into the 1,675 level.
Scenario 2. However, below 1,508 price could slide into the next larger (weekly) long setup and participation higher down at 1,416. I don’t think the FED will allow it at this stage.

As always I am interested in your thoughts.
Have a great eve.
Cheers
-fibstalker
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #1,165
  • Apr 17, 2013 6:00pm Apr 17, 2013 6:00pm
Thanks for sharing CDN, your projection on COT would confirm a continued move higher into the 1.41 area besides the bad news...

Ciao
-fibstalker

Quoting cdndollar
EURUSD & GBPUSD Mid month Update.. Good support while Gold was losing it's shine big time.. Look for Gold to consolidate & retrace here along with the lead Crosses to lift the whole complex up to the next levels.. {image} Euro COT @04092013: {image} After covering some of their windfalls, the Big Dogs are now scaling in @ the recent inflection zones for another probe at the January highs..
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #1,166
  • Apr 19, 2013 6:46am Apr 19, 2013 6:46am
Quoting fibstalker
Hello all, quick update on Euro FX futures, Dollar Index and S&P500 (no pictures sorry, but you can check the video on my blog). Euro-Dollar FX currency futures While lots of people think this is the start of a resumed move lower, I think this move lower is due to failure of a continuation higher in the lower timeframes. Scenario 1. The upmove in the Euro is still intact and the current move lower is going to be an opportunity for bulls to add to their long positions. We have support starting at the 1.3040 area and if price does not pierce the 1.30...
Hello all,
following up on my latest update on the Euro FX futures, here is a new update and chart.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 6E_trading_plan_daily_20130419.png Size: 50 KB


The Euro is finding support at an extension area starting at 1.3040. On a smaller timeframe (4-hour) is ha resistance starting at 1.3105. This is a box play at the moment and the two levels to monitor are: 1.3132 on the upside and 1.3000 on the downside.

The two scenarios are:

Scenario 1. Price is at the 1.3100-05 area of resistance at the moment. If the Euro is capable of climbing above the 1.3132 level the support area starting at 1.3040 that held in the last days is confirmed. In that case, even if price should come back for a re-test, that support and long participation area could hold.

Scenario 2. If the resistance at 1.3100-05 sees participation on the short side, this could help price breaking the 1.3000 level and bring price slighly lower into the next area of support and long participation starting at the 1.2980. There price could also find the retail participation buying the test of the 20-day SMA. We could see a bounce towards new highs or at least towards the next resistance area starting at 1.3240.

Let me know what you think. The related video will be on my blog in the European afternoon.

Thanks
Cheers
-fibstalker
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #1,167
  • Apr 30, 2013 4:17pm Apr 30, 2013 4:17pm
Quoting fibstalker
.... Scenario 2. If the resistance at 1.3100-05 sees participation on the short side, this could help price breaking the 1.3000 level and bring price slighly lower into the next area of support and long participation starting at the 1.2980. There price could also find the retail participation buying the test of the 20-day SMA. We could see a bounce towards new highs or at least towards the next resistance area starting at 1.3240.... The second scenario of my last review (see related video on my blog as well) took place and price never...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1367355901



The two scenarios going forward are (please refer to the above picture):


Scenario 1. The 1.3230 is a very important area and it could show participation on the downside. Notice that price held the 1.2990 area of support with a first target in the 1.3310 area, well above the 1.3230. If price is capable of piearcing the 1.3230 area I anticipate a continuation higher with a move into 1.3310 and a continuation to and above 1.3354. If the 1.3354 level is broken on the upside the 1.41 final swing target will be confirmed.

Scenario 2. If the 1.3230 important area holds and offer significant resistance, we could see a move lower due to the “sell in May and go away” effect, as well as, a reaction to BCE lowering interest rates to 0.5% on Thursday. In that case we price could move lower to retest the 1.2980 area (or lower).

As usual I am interested in your thoughts and ideas and you can watch the video related to the explanation of the above scenarios on my blog.

Cheers
-fibstalker
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #1,168
  • May 3, 2013 6:22pm May 3, 2013 6:22pm
Quoting fibstalker
Scenario 2. If the 1.3230 important area holds and offer significant resistance, we could see a move lower due to the “sell in May and go away” effect, as well as, a reaction to BCE lowering interest rates to 0.5% on Thursday. In that case we price could move lower to retest the 1.2980 area (or lower)....
Scenario 2 of my last review posted on April 30th is being played. The 1.3230 area was very important and I have been watching it carefully. We had strong participation on the downside that negates the bullish scenario I have been following so far.

Indeed, today the market has confirmed the shorts by holding the 3140 area of resistance (stop-loss above 1.3170 was never pierced). This setup has 1st target at 1.3000 and second target around the 1.2910 area of previous support. Below 1.2714 the bullish scenario, already in trouble, can be cancelled altogether. If Scenario 1 (see description hereunder) plays out the first target will be at the 1.2520 area.


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1367622898


The above picture shows the two current scenarios:

Scenario 1. I do not anticipate the 1.2980 level to hold because it is going to be a second test. Thus we could see price slice through that level and move right into the 1.2910 area where we could get a small bounce. If the shorts are real there would be a continuaton after price tests the 1.2980 area from below.

Scenario 2. If the 1.2910 area holds we could still see a resumed move higher. This scenario, however, seems a low probability scenario at the moment.

As usual I am interested in your thoughts and ideas.

On my blog there is an up to date video featuring the daily and the 4-hour charts.

Have a great weekend

-fibstalker
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #1,169
  • May 7, 2013 6:22am May 7, 2013 6:22am
Quoting cdndollar
{quote} EURUSD & GBPUSD Mid month Update.. Good support while Gold was losing it's shine big time.. Look for Gold to consolidate & retrace here along with the lead Crosses to lift the whole complex up to the next levels.. {image} Euro COT @04092013: {image} After covering some of their windfalls, the Big Dogs are now scaling in @ the recent inflection zones for another probe at the January highs..

Good demand infront of 1.30 contrary to popular calls for 1.25..
Dips are being brought post "Cyprus Bearfest", Gold flush-out, & ECB Rate Cut..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU H4-201305057-Post Rate Cut.png Size: 59 KB


Euro COT @20130430:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Euro CFTC COT-20130430-4 years.png Size: 135 KB

COT Position & Open Interest suggest Smart Money continue to scale-in M/T positions since 1.2750 for new highs..
  • #1,170
  • May 16, 2013 1:38pm May 16, 2013 1:38pm
Quoting fibstalker
Scenario 1. I do not anticipate the 1.2980 level to hold because it is going to be a second test. Thus we could see price slice through that level and move right into the 1.2910 area where we could get a small bounce. If the shorts are real there would be a continuaton after price tests the 1.2980 area from below. Scenario 2. If the 1.2910 area holds we could still see a resumed move higher. This scenario, however, seems a low probability scenario at the moment.
The first scenario of my last review on May 3rd played out. I have not anticipate a larger retrace higher which took place, but the market continued generally lower. Following is my review for today May 16th valid for the coming days:

The Euro kept moving lower despite strong US indices as anticipated on April 30th and May 3rd video reviews. The participation lower initially witnessed at the 1.3240 continued in the last 2 weeks. Moreover, below 1.2840 price confirmed the first target of the daily move lower at the 1.2525 area. I now anticipate price continuing into that target area in the two coming weeks.
What I was not able to anticipate was this reactionary move higher to push early bears out of the markets, but I do only swing trading (that’s where the money is) and don’t try to catch every intraday move.


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 6E_trading_plan_daily_20130516.png Size: 71 KB



The above picture shows the two current scenarios:

Scenario 1. A continuation lower from current levels if the correction higher has ended bringing price into the 1.2810 area first and then the 1.2740 area for the second target.

Scenario 2. If the correction higher has not ended just yet, we could see price climbing into the 1.3010-20 area only to revert (there would be resistance of the 20-day SMA there, as well) and continue lower.
As I said, final destination where we could see initial profit taking is at the 1.2525-30 area, first target of the move originated a the 1.3240 area. I will remove my swing short position there.


As usual I am interested in your thoughts, suggestions and ideas.
On my blog there is an up to date video featuring the daily chart.

Have a great weekend -fibstalker
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #1,171
  • May 21, 2013 9:41am May 21, 2013 9:41am
Quoting fibstalker
...The S&P500 started profit taking right at the 1,593 highs, second target of the larger move started in November last year. Scenario 1. The up-move in the stock index has not ended, but just paused. The next long setup and strong participation on the upside can be found starting at the 1,526 area...
Hello all, a quick update to the S&P500.
In my last review I mentioned a resumed move higher in the 1526 area but that came at a higher level:four points above at the 1530 (see in the below video a potential explanation for that).

Let me show you my current perspective. The setup long showing participation at 1530 in mid of April (see picture below) hit the first target in the 1623 area and then the 1671 second target. I don't anticipate higher prices straight away now and the S&P500 could see profit taking. Price could stretch as high as 1677 area before we see a move lower. The reason for the 1677 level is explained on the video in my blog.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1369146193



These are the scenarios I could anticipate for the S&P500 going forward:

Scenario 1. Price corrects into the next support and long setup at the 1632 area (with a stop below 1622) and then continue higher into previous highs at 1670s or even continue into the first and second targets respectively at 1689 and 1719.

Scenario 2a. If participation on the long side does not show up at around the 1632 area and price dips below 1620, we could witness a swift move lower into the next area of support where Program Trading will pick up price. That is down at the 1454 area.

Scenario 2b. We could still see a bounce at the 1632 area and then current highs retested and then a swift move lower. The trigger, again, will be price piercing below the 1620 level.

You can find a better explanation of these scenarios in my last blog's post: http://elitefive.wordpress.com/2013/...lish-language/

Please let me have your ideas and suggestions.
Thank you

-fibstalker
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #1,172
  • May 23, 2013 2:18pm May 23, 2013 2:18pm
To concur with Smikester, I see the 1.42 level/0 Fib extension as the next logical stop for any fall in Cable.

I would also like to commend the input to this thread, and hope that this will help to breathe life back into a thread that has always maintained a high standard of analysis and comment.

Stocky - that was some honeymoon... I knew you where a Barclay's broker, otherwise, how could you have afforded it?

And to make you both laugh, I am now spending this summer renovating yet another wall on my property.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusdweekly.png Size: 71 KB
Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
  • #1,173
  • May 26, 2013 5:21pm May 26, 2013 5:21pm
Quoting fibstalker
Scenario 1. Price corrects into the next support and long setup at the 1632 area (with a stop below 1622) and then continue higher into previous highs at 1670s or even continue into the first and second targets respectively at 1689 and 1719.
Hello all,
a quick update on ES setup. So far the e-mini is playing according to scenario 1 and we have targets above. I will keep following this scenario unless we hit the stop (move below 1622).

Therefore my latest analysis at: http://elitefive.wordpress.com/2013/...lish-language/ is still valid.

I wanted to let you know that I have also started a thread called "Key Concepts to Correct Trading Behavior - by FibStalker" (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=428085).

Moreover I have just released a free eBook titled: "Key Concepts to Correct Trading Behavior – A guide to relevant concepts for trading success in a market governed by High Frequency Trading (HFT) and Program Trading" which can be downloaded from my blog: http://elitefive.wordpress.com

Let me know what you think about it and if you find it helpful/useful.

Good luck.
-fibstalker
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #1,174
  • May 26, 2013 8:14pm May 26, 2013 8:14pm
Quoting fibstalker
{quote} Hello all,a quick update on ES setup. So far the e-mini is playing according to scenario 1 and we have targets above. I will keep following this scenario unless we hit the stop (move below 1622). Therefore my latest analysis at: http://elitefive.wordpress.com/2013/...lish-language/ is still valid. I wanted to let you know that I have also started a thread called "Key Concepts to Correct Trading Behavior - by FibStalker" (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=428085)....
I wonder what your name is supposed to be?

Is is Fibs Talker
Or Fib Stalker
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #1,175
  • May 27, 2013 4:18pm May 27, 2013 4:18pm
Quoting KillerWhale
{quote} I wonder what your name is supposed to be? Is is Fibs TalkerOr Fib Stalker
it's a joke? ehe he he eh

It's stalking, like timing, don't you like it?

Cheers
-fibstalker
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #1,176
  • May 27, 2013 4:41pm May 27, 2013 4:41pm
Hello all,
an updated view on the Dollar Index. The current price dynamics is very important as price could repeat last year's move (now, repeats in history are very rare, but that could still happen). Let me show you what I mean:

The 84.70 area is the first target of the 81.40 area of support that found participation at the beginning of May (corresponding to Euro’s lower low at 1.3240). The 84.70 area lines up with previous highs in the Dollar Index which could suggest profit taking from those levels. If history repeats (it rarely does though) we could see something similar to what happen last year in the Dollar Index.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=1201482&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1369689939

The above picture shows the two current scenarios I could anticipate:

Scenario 1. Price could continue lower into the 83 area of support and then violently bounce higher into the 84.70 area of 1st target of the 81.40 long entry area. Then price could fail the next traditional measured move higher and start a series of lower lows and lower highs.

Scenario 2. After trading the 83 area, price could continues above the previous 84.70 profit level into the 85.30 area, 1st target of the 83 area long setup. If that happens profit taking could be seen at those levels (and we would deal with that at the proper time).

On my blog you can find the video explaining the scenarios I have just provided above: http://elitefive.wordpress.com/2013/...lish-language/

Let me know what you think.
Cheers

-fibstalker
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #1,177
  • May 31, 2013 12:24pm May 31, 2013 12:24pm
Hello all,
this is an update for the Euro.I am also providing a view of the major swing levels I am following with the meaning I attach to them. Hope it is clear. Should you have any questions do not hesitate to ask.

The area between 1.3240 and 1.3357 is a short area. Here bears were clearly interested in selling. Their continued action was able to keep moving price down into the support area below. Bears will be gone if price moves above 1.3357 (level c). The short setup has targets at 1.2530.

The area between 1.2910 and 1.2800 has acted as a support for prices twice and we cannot exclude it will act again as support, but we cannot be certain. That area of demand will only disappear after price moves below 1.2714 (level b). Target for all the participants in this area of support is 1.41. Such target will only be confirmed if we manage to move above 1.3358 (level c).

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=1204643 &stc=1&thumb=1&d=1370019088

Today bears defended the next measured move lower, from May 1st highs to mid-may lows and this is a sign they are still around. Particularly they defended the 1.3078-80 level (level a). Above such level there would be the high probability of retesting the 1.3240 area, the short area for the bears and possibly the challenge to the 1.3357 (level c). On the other hand if price stays below 1.3080 (level a) and moves below 1.2715 (level b), the target for the bears will be confirmed at 1.2530.

So still everything is open in the Euro and I will wait the current situation to resolve before committing on the long side (I am still short and I will be below 1.3078, as mentioned yesterday). The levels to watch on the daily/weekly are those specified (a, b and c). Those levels are not going to change whatever price does, and you know the meaning I attach to them.

Hope this helps. Later on on the blog I will post a video featuring both the Euro and the Dollar Index.

Chat to you later
-fibstalker.
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #1,178
  • Jun 17, 2013 1:26am Jun 17, 2013 1:26am
Euro & GBP under accumulation with Buy On Dips interests since reaching that "Count Dough, Lick Wound" threshold with both pairs sustaining the break above their 4 months highs while EURGBP range with side to up bias..

Euro Smart Money sentiment crossing over to net bullish for the 2nd time since January for another poke @1.37 & continuation of the M/T trend up to higher grounds..

Paths of the elephants..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Euro CFTC COT-20130611.png Size: 114 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBP COT-20130611.png Size: 126 KB

Euro Up +GBP Up +EURGBP Side~Up =Euro Up +GBP lead/lag Up
Euro Up +GBP Up +EURGBP Up=Euro Up Up +GBP Up
  • #1,179
  • Jun 20, 2013 7:54am Jun 20, 2013 7:54am
Quoting 45Condor
.. I knew you where a Barclay's broker, otherwise, how could you have afforded it? {image}
That is funny. How's the wall coming along? Sorry for the delay. Still after 1.42? It seems as though the daily had another go at retesting the trend line after your post. I'm still bearish but the more I learn, the less I know. Broadly speaking, I'm bullish for the dollar. They can't afford to print money forever, and if that (slowing QE) causes equities to decline, it's bullish for the dollar. On the other hand, if the USA leads some sort of recovery - and let's hope so - then a stronger dollar... Or am I talking nonsense?
Gone to a better place
  • #1,180
  • Jul 11, 2013 4:05am Jul 11, 2013 4:05am
Euro reversed post fomc with the two biggest back to back daily bar since inception..
with this latest rejection from the 1.2750 zone, yearly ATR now tilt the odd for resolving the L/T Triangle to the upside.. Euro now has 2 quarters to print 1.3888 on the narrow & 1.48888 on the wide to end the year..

Quoting cdndollar
{quote} Thanks for the update, but IMO there's not very good betting odds for the down train to continue.. The train came to a screeching halt @ your L/T T/L for the 3rd time this year with GBPUSD @ major support & EURGBP break above 3 month high.. looks more chopping around prior to another Singarpore Sling..
Paths of the elephants..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Euro COT @07022013.png Size: 60 KB


Need Stocky to come down from the "Monastery" & inject more life on his thread..
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