GU, GJ and EU Analysis Thread

After running up 7 figures from July, expect Euro to pause & consolidate to inject additional M/T liquidity for the next up leg..
Year to date Euro have the smallest range since inception.. yearly ATR suggests good odd for range expansion to year end..

Euro Yearly @20130830:

Quarterly:

Monthly:

Weekly:

Daily:


Path of the Elephants @20130827:

Net bullish with rising Open Interests

Retail Net Position @20130830:

Retail crowds are heavily net short..
Good odds for an extended flush & squeeze as in November December last year..

Good work CND. Good charts and insight.

I'm looking at Gbp/Jpy. After the May highs we dropped into a range. Yesterday's high close broke that range. I see that as an opportunity. There's about an hour before the Construction PMI news, so I'm going to set a small buy stop pending order above the price and watch it carefully. This time of year plus the government incentives might give good figures. The price might take off. If it does, I'll hold for weeks/months. If it doesn't I may close. Current ATR is 130 ish which is piffling for this pair. 100 pips SL.

Thx..
Good catch on GBPJPY.. there's good odd for it to pop over the top with the USDJPY weekly bull fractal heading for a retest of the 101 zone here..
What's your view for EURGBP? Looks like a repeat of the July lead/lag line dance between Euro & GBP except this time the starting levels are switched..

Longer term, lower. But if today's UK midnight price is above .8450 then I think we might be headed for a retest of .8500 or higher or at least .8469 which is a significant distance away for this pair, . Last month's candle posted a double bar high, lower close which is a powerful bearish signal. The monthly chart shows lower highs and lower lows. The 200ma is at .73

I threw up a fib on the monthly and it's a thing of beauty. I chose the 2006 low but the 2000 low is just as interesting. Conversely, where we are now could be construed as a break above and retest of the upper trend line, but I prefer the channel. I might be completely wrong but don't worry, all my stops are at break even and I might be dead before they are hit, the speed this thing moves.



The blue box is this year's range. Difficult. I was interested to read your comments about ATR and let's hope it expands pdq, as this year has been difficult for trend traders on most pairs.

Hello All,

Well, it's been a little while since I posted at FF, but with Summer and associated holidays now over, the renovation to my property now almost complete, and also that the weather is turning positively Autumnal here in my little part of France, I think I'll gradually return to the fray. I hope that other traders do the same, as FF seems, in addition to having undergone some changes to its interface, to have gone a little quiet over the past few months... hardly surprising, given the monotony that the central banks have induced into what was once a vibrant market.

Hope all are well, and I'll kick of with E/G, given that this is my first trade for many a month.

GBP/USD_My five charts' worth_14.09.13

Good to see you back and nice charts fourfive. I'll put in a longer post in a bit.

And you too.

I see that gold is taking a bit of a battering by the centrals. Back under 1200 just in time for the year-end book balancing?

I may grab a few ounces if it sits back down at 800... I'm saying perhaps by next Spring.

Waiting for the Fed.

I agree with your analysis of Eur/Gbp but I'm not holding my breath. I think we could be in for a long wait. If we look at January 2012 to March 2012, that is the area we are entering - 10 plus weeks of consolidation then under .8400 mostly. Maybe this autumn will see the markets shaken up a bit. But there was more than a hint of sarcasm in the title of the thread "Eur/Gbp. What a great pair to trade"

I looked at your Gbp charts and agree that the magenta line provides a logical barrier. I'll be looking for price action around there.

I'm waiting for Ben Benanke or whoever to give the dollar a boost tomorrow. It's been tough on trend traders this year, so far. The Euro is pretty much where it started in January.

Well done with your refurbishment. We've had a good summer and I have been outside a lot. I have just noticed a logpile fallen over in the recent high winds and rained on. Oh well. Keeps me young.

Dollar a boost... I'm thinking that the elections in Germany will mark the pivotal point for the rest of the year. Indeed, my short on EG may have been a little early, and I can see its current level being where it will oscillate around for while.

Pff, looks like Ben just bombed the bank.

I'm calling 10.437 as the first medical stop.

Cable_My five charts' worth_22.09.13

Dollar_My four charts' worth_22.09.13

EU_My five charts' worth_22.09.13

EG_My five charts' worth_22.09.13

.......Jesus crist........this is like walking into a bar and finding, Smikester, 45condor and CDN in a table at the end of the bar, then I see fibstalker at the bar drinking alone, well I guess one beer won't heart me, let me go in.......

How you all old friends doing?

Hope fine....
me? well you know how I'm, lurking around looking for old pubs to have a beer in......

......cheers.

glad you finish that wall 45 , hope cat , horse and barn are ok, is the new book out yet? don't make us wait.......

Smikester I still can taste your permissions cocktails in my mouse, and the John Deere tractors model's keep floating in my head, like reminders of a great friendship, when I will be able to see you guys at least one time before I dye?, give an eye and a.......for it...

.....Miss you guys......

CDN ......how are you my friend, miss you too, hope all is ok.......now that I know where you all hide...... Ill-b-back....

.....to the rest of the participants of this thread, hello and nice to meet you... Happy piping to all....

...it appears that we have been rumbled.

All good here sir chonchy..hope you're fine..
Euro multi-week break-out looking for 1.37 near term with EURGBP & Gold pushing in tandem while Cable settles comfortably above 1.59 targeting the 1.63~1.65 M/T zone..


cdndollar| Sep 18, 2013
http://assets.forexfactory.net/nfs/c...ar294966_2.gif
Classic M/T lead/lag race between Euro, Cable & EURGBP.....

With Euro now setting up for a 6th weekly probe at the 1.34 tofu zone since June, inter-market dynamics & recent PA suggest there's good odd that the recent correction down to the 1.31 zone had attracted significant mid & short term liquidities to push Euro over 1.34 & up to the 1.3688~1.3888 M/T zones on this leg.. a sustained weekly above 1.3380 after today's FOMC fun will confirm..