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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #5,801
  • Apr 2, 2013 6:57am Apr 2, 2013 6:57am
Quoting shahab8b
AU: possible long setup {image}
Update on the AU long trade
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  • #5,802
  • Apr 5, 2013 7:39am Apr 5, 2013 7:39am
Quoting shahab8b
I got couple of PMs regarding my count on S&P500. I'm not a fortune teller, but I think there is a good chance that we see a deep decline in the equity markets. picking tops and bottoms are very difficult and most of the times futile. use of divergence, some instinct, and defining your exit points may help. {image}
S&P500 future: pretty much as expected
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  • #5,803
  • Apr 5, 2013 8:01am Apr 5, 2013 8:01am
I think of buying UCAD on any small TF retracement
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  • #5,804
  • Apr 5, 2013 10:07am Apr 5, 2013 10:07am
Quoting shahab8b
I think of buying UCAD on any small TF retracement {image}
Still with the Long term Daily Short targeting support @ 0.98320 ~ 78.6 % Fibo and selling the rallies.
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #5,805
  • Apr 5, 2013 12:23pm Apr 5, 2013 12:23pm
Quoting bassramy
Still with the Long term Daily Short targeting support @ 0.98320 ~ 78.6 % Fibo and selling the rallies.
so you are short now? where is your SL?
  • #5,806
  • Apr 5, 2013 12:51pm Apr 5, 2013 12:51pm
EURAUD: I usually don't trade crosses (except EURGBP), but this 4hr chart is really interesting.
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  • #5,807
  • Edited 5:04am Apr 6, 2013 4:35am | Edited 5:04am
Quoting bassramy
My TA was : - PA Stalled @ 78.6 Fibo of the last Bearish move making a 11 days Range, Reversed in Breaking both DP and WP downward, rejected again from the Pivots levels from below forming 2 Bearish pinbars under these levels and then carry on to breakdown the Rising Trendline and support @ 2160 where my sell stop was waiting to be triggered knowing that the RSI was screaming bearish divergence too, then hit the MP and the 23.6 Fibo and reversed to retest the Break and the Trendline from below . Regards, B.R. {image}
Chief your are very smart u think that my SL Was blown away with yesterday's US and CAD News spike and you are absolutely wright, no wonder u are very respected in this community and other, well to make a long story short my stop loss is still valid cause in these kind of long term trend trades, i always trail my stops to the latest peaks and tho-roughs and this time i didn't see any important retracement higher to trail my stop down except the one from yesterday which i told u i fade it, so I'm waiting for next week PA action to see what's gonna happen, for now i see a PA rejection of the support break turned resistance and the formation of a huge Bearish almost pinbar.

By the way EA caught my eye also i was short and my SL was just over the double bottom so was my buy stop so i covered my shorts and went long @ the break of the DBL Bottom @ support and the descending trendline.

I would like to mention that I'm very impressed by the precision of your entries and the latest example is the S&P, I myself always wait for the break of the Accu. , Distrib. and the trendlines to trade (Latest example is the UCHF bear and GU bull from yesterday and the huge bullish pinbar with the break of descending trendline of the EU) i guess i have a lot more to learn yet.

With Deep Respect,
B.R.
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #5,808
  • Edited 9:04am Apr 6, 2013 8:50am | Edited 9:04am
Quoting bassramy
Chief your are very smart u think that my SL Was blown away with yesterday's US and CAD News spike and you are absolutely wright, no wonder u are very respected in this community and other, well to make a long story short my stop loss is still valid cause in these kind of long term trend trades, i always trail my stops to the latest peaks and tho-roughs and this time i didn't see any important retracement higher to trail my stop down except the one from yesterday which i told u i fade it, so I'm waiting for next week PA action to see what's gonna...
Thanks B.R., I actually didn't think your SL was hit due to the fact that you posted your comment after the spike nor did I say you were wrong. I asked that question to understand your way of thinking for placing your SL, that's all.
  • #5,809
  • Apr 8, 2013 3:06am Apr 8, 2013 3:06am
Quoting shahab8b
Thanks B.R., I actually didn't think your SL was hit due to the fact that you posted your comment after the spike nor did I say you were wrong. I asked that question to understand your way of thinking for placing your SL, that's all.
Sorry S., my bad, as for my risk strategy i use 2.5 - 3 ATR usually depends on the volatility of every instrument that i trade however 1 very important rule should not be broken its the 2-4 % risk per trade and per account , i use dynamic position sizing management to keep my risk under these levels.

Regards,
B.R.
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #5,810
  • Apr 8, 2013 12:39pm Apr 8, 2013 12:39pm
Quoting shahab8b
I think of buying UCAD on any small TF retracement {image}
Update on our UCAD long trade
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  • #5,811
  • Apr 8, 2013 1:51pm Apr 8, 2013 1:51pm
shaha, any thots on AUD/JPY monthly ? I`m curious to hear your viewpoint. I`m bearish
Thank you Malcolm, Belekas, Jim, raczekfx and Ryanmcd !
  • #5,812
  • Apr 8, 2013 3:41pm Apr 8, 2013 3:41pm
Quoting djambazov84
shaha, any thots on AUD/JPY monthly ? I`m curious to hear your viewpoint. I`m bearish
I don't trade A/J, but you can post a chart and tell us why you think its bearish.
  • #5,813
  • Edited 8:38am Apr 9, 2013 8:20am | Edited 8:38am
possible intraday short setups on AU and EU
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  • #5,814
  • Apr 9, 2013 8:54am Apr 9, 2013 8:54am
Quoting shahab8b
possible intraday short setups on AU and EU {image} {image}
Hi S,

Just a query as to targets. On the AU trade would you target the 1.36ish area where we have shown support?

I'm curious to find out if the setup you enter a trade upon is the same you exit upon. For instance the AU trade triple top, resistance, 78.6%, weak rally etc etc So would exit reasons need to show the opposite before you would exit (increasing demand, double bottom, prior support for instance) or do you have a set target regardless of market conditions?

It is great to see your ideas.

Regards
A
  • #5,815
  • Apr 9, 2013 9:06am Apr 9, 2013 9:06am
Quoting ady_babe
Hi S, Just a query as to targets. On the AU trade would you target the 1.36ish area where we have shown support? I'm curious to find out if the setup you enter a trade upon is the same you exit upon. For instance the AU trade triple top, resistance, 78.6%, weak rally etc etc So would exit reasons need to show the opposite before you would exit (increasing demand, double bottom, prior support for instance) or do you have a set target regardless of market conditions? It is great to see your ideas. Regards A
Hey, this is an intraday trade, so I won't hold it that long. I'll TP for 30-40 pips depending on PA. I might let 1/3 of the position run with SL at B/E, but all depends on PA.
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  • #5,816
  • Apr 9, 2013 10:11am Apr 9, 2013 10:11am
UJ: uptrend still intact, but it may be worth it to go short around 100-101 psychological lvl
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  • #5,817
  • Apr 9, 2013 10:18am Apr 9, 2013 10:18am
I'm trying another short on EU @ 1.3080
  • #5,818
  • Apr 9, 2013 10:27am Apr 9, 2013 10:27am
Levels to watch on Kiwi
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  • #5,819
  • Apr 10, 2013 7:55pm Apr 10, 2013 7:55pm
Quoting shahab8b
I'm trying another short on EU @ 1.3080
got stopped out on couple of trades earlier, finally divergence and rising wedge formation on 30 min TF played out.
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  • #5,820
  • Apr 10, 2013 11:52pm Apr 10, 2013 11:52pm
Quoting shahab8b
got stopped out on couple of trades earlier, finally divergence and rising wedge formation on 30 min TF played out. {image}
good to see u back buddy...

& nice job, as expected...
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