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  • #401
  • Apr 8, 2013 7:59am Apr 8, 2013 7:59am
Weekly engulfing. Daily above s/r level. I like it for a buy. Perhaps wait for today's close for more pull back then buy on the high break. We'll see what happens.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #402
  • Apr 8, 2013 9:11am Apr 8, 2013 9:11am
Quoting Winston Reed
Weekly engulfing. Daily above s/r level. I like it for a buy. Perhaps wait for today's close for more pull back then buy on the high break. We'll see what happens. {image} {image}
Had the same analysis on my watchlist. Nice to see this.
I don't need easy. I just need possible.
  • #403
  • Apr 9, 2013 9:19pm Apr 9, 2013 9:19pm
USD/CAD

This pair is setup for a sell with COT (Commercial and Non-commercial) on both currencies at respective extremes.
Price is now in a confirmed downtrend and we have had a pullback and we have now made a lower daily low.

Also the net positioning is starting to change direction indicating a reversal is underway rather than just a pullback.
I have placed sell orders on this pair as follows:

S@ 1.0125 SL@ 1.0247
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #404
  • Apr 9, 2013 11:49pm Apr 9, 2013 11:49pm
Quoting Winston Reed
Weekly engulfing. Daily above s/r level. I like it for a buy. Perhaps wait for today's close for more pull back then buy on the high break. We'll see what happens. {image} {image}
Nice work, this could be a great Long. I have just closed a EUR/USD short.

I am very bearish the USD which means bullish EUR by default. Although the EUR COT positioning is not setup for reversal the USD is.

Also I am mid term bearish AUD despite the AUD/USD still moving up.

Looks like the EUR/AUD is pulling back a little today which could provide a lower risk entry for a long.

I will be looking for a swing position on this one should it present.
  • #405
  • Apr 9, 2013 11:52pm Apr 9, 2013 11:52pm
EUR/USD - Short closed for modest +1R profit
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #406
  • Apr 10, 2013 9:57pm Apr 10, 2013 9:57pm
GBP/USD - Long Orders Placed

COT is bullish the Pound. Trend has changed and the PA is interesting now.
The April 5th Bar is a large bull bar and is followed by 3 consecutive inside bars. This would appear as a triangle on an intraday chart. Either way it usually means there will be a move out of the range. I like the upside (obviously) if its a break down then I will cancel my long orders.

Orders - [email protected] [email protected]
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #407
  • Apr 10, 2013 10:08pm Apr 10, 2013 10:08pm
Soybeans - Short Orders Placed

COT is setup for a Buy in this market. However, I am fading this setup until the trend changes.

The Weekly chart shows a break of a trendline.
The Daily shows what looks to be a failed attempt (pin bar) to get above 1400.

I am realistic and I expect there to be possible buying pressure at 1350 but if that gives way then this could really tank.

I am also happy to be proven wrong on this trade, if we get enough buying at 1350 we could see the COT reversal play out, in which case I would be looking to get long.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #408
  • Apr 11, 2013 4:45am Apr 11, 2013 4:45am
Quoting mypipbull
Soybeans - Short Orders Placed COT is setup for a Buy in this market. However, I am fading this setup until the trend changes. The Weekly chart shows a break of a trendline. The Daily shows what looks to be a failed attempt (pin bar) to get above 1400. I am realistic and I expect there to be possible buying pressure at 1350 but if that gives way then this could really tank. I am also happy to be proven wrong on this trade, if we get enough buying at 1350 we could see the COT reversal play out, in which case I would be looking to get long. {image}...
Hey,

How did you conclude that COT is setup for a buy in Soybeans? I don't see any extreme positions.
Looks bearish to me too, although mostly ranging. If it closes below the last low, it's confirmed bearish. I would be bullish if this happens (you could make a case for preempting this scenario and buying at the range low for an aggressive entry) :

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Good luck!
I don't need easy. I just need possible.
  • #409
  • Apr 11, 2013 5:23am Apr 11, 2013 5:23am
Quoting DaGrizlyBull
Hey, How did you conclude that COT is setup for a buy in Soybeans? I don't see any extreme positions. Looks bearish to me too, although mostly ranging. If it closes below the last low, it's confirmed bearish. I would be bullish if this happens (you could make a case for preempting this scenario and buying at the range low for an aggressive entry) : {image} Good luck!
Griz,
Chart below shows the extreme. Due to it being over the shortish term (1 year) this is why I am fading the signal i.e. short.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #410
  • Apr 11, 2013 1:08pm Apr 11, 2013 1:08pm
Thoughts about EJ:

Weekly Supply Zone. We had a strong weekly close above the last high (rejection from the supply).

Considering that JPY is Extreme Net Long for the past 5 years, I would think this is a fakeout in the making (last week's momentum being created to trap as many buyers as possible), like the GBPUSD I posted before. I would expect a strong rejection next week and a drop in price.

What are your thoughts on this?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I don't need easy. I just need possible.
  • #411
  • Apr 12, 2013 10:01am Apr 12, 2013 10:01am
Trades triggered
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  • #412
  • Apr 14, 2013 12:31pm Apr 14, 2013 12:31pm
Quoting Winston Reed
Trades triggered {image}{image}
Hi Winston and MPB

I was doing my 'end of the week/prepare for new week' analysis and came to the same conclusion about the euraud and the audchf buy and sell trades respectively. Well done W for spotting then and posting about them. I am a day late on them both but will be watching them closely to see if I can still trade them. Suddenly there is aud weakness accross the board. Perhaps it is because of the metals and China...

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #413
  • Apr 14, 2013 12:55pm Apr 14, 2013 12:55pm
Quoting Winston Reed
Trades triggered {image}{image}
Hi W, My take is a bit contrarian I'm afraid.....again lol.

With Audchf I think it's in a bit of no-mans land Euraud - I'm bearish mainly cos of the fundies.


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #414
  • Apr 14, 2013 5:47pm Apr 14, 2013 5:47pm
Quoting DaGrizlyBull
Thoughts about EJ: Weekly Supply Zone. We had a strong weekly close above the last high (rejection from the supply). Considering that JPY is Extreme Net Long for the past 5 years, I would think this is a fakeout in the making (last week's momentum being created to trap as many buyers as possible), like the GBPUSD I posted before. I would expect a strong rejection next week and a drop in price. What are your thoughts on this? {image} {image}
Hey Griz,
Your analysis looks good and its hard to argue otherwise but I am on the side atm.
I am being very cautions about buying the yen. I do not like the way the Commercial net position is chopping around. This is not a classical position reversal. I am going to pass on any JPY buying until I see a clear trend change.
The flip side is it could really move rapidly of it does reverse and if you are on board you could cash in pretty quickly.
Good luck with the trade if you get in.
MPB
  • #415
  • Apr 14, 2013 8:02pm Apr 14, 2013 8:02pm
Quoting mypipbull
Soybeans - Short Orders Placed COT is setup for a Buy in this market. However, I am fading this setup until the trend changes. The Weekly chart shows a break of a trendline. The Daily shows what looks to be a failed attempt (pin bar) to get above 1400. I am realistic and I expect there to be possible buying pressure at 1350 but if that gives way then this could really tank. I am also happy to be proven wrong on this trade, if we get enough buying at 1350 we could see the COT reversal play out, in which case I would be looking to get long. {image}...
Took a quick 1R loss on this one.

When I honestly look at it I should not have shorted this here. The 1350 level was way to close to be move my stop to breakeven on a short position. The lesson is to make sure there is no significant S/R in the way for at least +2R when attempting a COT Fade trade. I knew this earlier and I broke this rule and paid the price.
Moving on now......still bullish but will be bearish below 1350.
  • #416
  • Apr 14, 2013 10:35pm Apr 14, 2013 10:35pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audchftradeupdate41413.gif Size: 27 KB
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euraudupdate41413.gif Size: 28 KB
  • #417
  • Apr 15, 2013 2:30am Apr 15, 2013 2:30am
Quoting Winston Reed
{image}{image}
  • #418
  • Edited 6:30am Apr 15, 2013 4:20am | Edited 6:30am
Winston, are you also buying the break of the last candle that made a LL and a LH and selling the break of the last candle that made a HL and HH ? (In line with technical SD and SR zones on retracements of course)

Edit:

Something like this? (AUDCHF short)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I don't need easy. I just need possible.
  • #419
  • Apr 15, 2013 10:10am Apr 15, 2013 10:10am
I don't look at time frames less than daily. I wait for price to react to an obvious s/d zone. But this reaction must be impressive and engulf prior consolidation or flag. Price almost always revisits where it engulfed. At these areas I wait for price to "rollover". The engulf represents big money revealing their intentions.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #420
  • Edited 2:24pm Apr 15, 2013 1:52pm | Edited 2:24pm
Quoting Winston Reed
I don't look at time frames less than daily. I wait for price to react to an obvious s/d zone. But this reaction must be impressive and engulf prior consolidation or flag. Price almost always revisits where it engulfed. At these areas I wait for price to "rollover". The engulf represents big money revealing their intentions. {image}
You still didn't mention anything about the entries
I don't need easy. I just need possible.
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